Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

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  1. One recent comment from Zoey of Cobargo gofundme page

    “donated $20
    I want to apologise for voting for sco mo. I wish you all the very best for your future….”

  2. Thanks for that info steve davis.
    That was going to be my next question. Would probably give me a decent retirement after selling here with some biccies in the bank.
    Here I’m going to have to try and survive on the pension. Thank you AMP.

  4. SmoCo announcing he’s effectively taking personal charge of the Federal bushfire response.

    This is ClassicMorrison™. The gofers have let him down again. The only job worth doing is the job you do yourself.

    I’m guessing he believes he’s gonna single-handedly save Australia.

    And then we’ll love him even more than we do now.

    Hard to think what more he could be doing, though. What with all the invisible help he’s been providing all these months, maybe it’s just a matter of selling himself better.

  6. Big opportunity now for Albanese to go hard on differentiating Labor climate/energy policy from the LibNats.

    No more ambiguity on CO2 and methane emissions – voters are ripe for the picking if, unlike Turnbull, he’s got a backbone.

  7. Morrison announces he’s canceled his trip to India and I think Japan, to lead the nation like he’s done for the last two months. I think it’s best if he goes.

  11. @ElaineEDO tweets

    Insightful thread by @katgallow on legal aspects of negligence and #ClimateCrisis

    In 2020, @EDOLawyers is investigating government duties to mitigate and plan for climate risk and legal opportunities to challenge the failure to act on the science https://www.edo.org.au/2019/12/20/a-state-of-emergency-edo-is-stepping-in/ https://twitter.com/katgallow/status/1213233094599139328

    There’s been some talk of legal liability of Australian governments for damage wrought by #AustraliaBushfires. I think that this is by no means straightforward, despite an instinctive logic of negligence.

  12. Peter Logue
    @pjlogue
    · 2h
    Do not go beyond the fact that had Scott Morrison, even one month ago, put in place the measures he announced today Cobargo and many other places might be intact. We had four fire crews on the day it lit up. They were brilliant. #AustraliaOnFire

  17. Player One

    citizen @ #6219 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:33 am

    It’s probably inadvertent but the placing of these two headlines adjacent on the Oz website immediately labels Henderson as an imbecile. If “more than 200,000 people are trapped in isolated areas” isn’t an “unprecedented disaster” then it’s hard to know what is.

    The Australian’s circulation figures?

    Don’t be so negative – the obvious way to Kill two Canaries with one Coalmine is to deliver 200,000 copies of (stranded asset) ‘The Australian’ to the 200,000 stranded people – How good would that be!

  23. Quite obviously the issue of climate change is biting in the electorate and not helping Morrison or the LNP.

    Otherwise he would not claim at every press conference that he believes in climate change and the government is doing great things to reduce emissions in a “responsible” way. Also claiming that Labor is same-same.

    If there is any internal polling at this time, the findings must be dire.

  25. Albanese will emerge from this crisis smelling like roses. And there’s really nothing Morrison can do to extricate himself save for heavy rounds of prayer, tongues, pointing to heaven at Hillsong and Horizon.

  27. The fire at Nowra has jumped the Shoalhaven River. North Nowra is now being evacuated. Kangaroo Valley is now receiving emergency texts.

    Evac centres at Bomaderry (North Nowra) are now full and additional places are being organised.

  30. Wow. The sooty protection society are out in full force on Facebook.
    I’ve had a few of the heartbroken resident of Cobargo calling into 2gb claiming Cobargo love sooty and all those nasty people heckling sooty don’t represent the town.
    I’m pretty sure it’s the same spiel each time but a different person referenced. Latest was a hotelier.

  31. I’m waiting for the “I’m fully behind him”.

    With the ultimate expression of support being:

    “This is my leader and I’m ambitious for him!”

    You’re really fucked if they trot that one out.

  32. In the magical…no, wait…tragical land of the LNP no lie is too big, no untruth is too small and the evil that lives within the Tower of Morrdock watches over The Sacred Shitipush and his mewling Homunculi and warps the reality and minds of great unwashed.

  34. Mavis says: Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 4:25 pm

    Albanese will emerge from this crisis smelling like roses. And there’s really nothing Morrison can do to extricate himself save for heavy rounds of prayer, tongues, pointing to heaven at Hillsong and Horizon.

    ***********************************************************************

    Sorry to disappoint Mavis – but Murdoch and his media Stooges and Goons in all aspects of Australian media – be it print, radio or tv will convince us that SmoKo was sent from above to save us all from the fires of eternal damnation – seen it on PB reports already – and the majority are sitting there with baited breath wondering who is going to be on ‘I’m A Celebrity’ tomorrow night …. and for Albo – who gives a f**k …..

  36. Just watching some Simpsons. A very prescient scene. We will definitely be hearing this . Immediately after a disaster burnt much of Springfield , caused by a statue unveiled by the mayor, Mayor Quimby speaking to the crowd declares “The time for mourning and blaming our mayor is over”.

  42. “This was on Facebook. If it’s true, it’s part of ScoMo’s determination to suppress protests.”

    This has to be fake news?? 🙁 If its not Smoko is finished……and seriously, cant believe even he or any of his minders could be that stupid.

  43. By the time this one finishes the rounds on Facebook, sooty will have been defended by more residents of Cobargo than actually existed, steve davis.
    Didn’t someone post that Cobargo voted ALP?

  45. BB
    I’d believe it , they sound just the sort of goons that would be in these vehicles . From an earlier report

    “Six riot and public order 4wds preceded the Prime Minister. !!

  48. Aqua
    Most definitely.Most of these towns wont be worth rebuilding with the constant threat of more fires in the years to come.

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