Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
Same same thing – pretty much a plea from the right to keep voting LNP as they’re just the same.
lizzie @ #6566 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 3:06 pm
lizzie, Hunt was crapping on this morning about how fabulous Morrison was. The more they try that rubbish, the more they over emphasise, the more they just highlight how appalling he is/was/will be. Same with minister watserface introducing the press conference.
As imacca has said, the more they breathlessly announce things, the more they underline what they haven’t done, and were told they should.
OH is watching ABC 24 news. Albo was on a short while ago. I only caught a bit but he mentioned the need to cater for long term health etc effects.
Has anyone caught Albo’s appearance – it seemed to be in SA?
nath:
Surely it would be “my have permanently soiled himself.”?
More seriously are you suggesting that he has reached the point that Greens’ partisans go over the top in their criticism” can no longer save him (as opposed to Labor partisans doing the same). That would be a very interesting development
Steve Davis, it’s positively cool here in Doonside. Only 47.
I’m not sure if we’ve hit this mark since I moved here 20 odd years ago.
Canberra has scored its record hot temperature: 43.6.
Perth, the coolest capital in Australia.
michael @ #6596 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 3:19 pm
No, other way around. I’m just waiting until the next election when Newscorp might, and I emphasise MIGHT, use a dirt file on Anthony Albanese, if they have one. I don’t know if they do and I don’t claim to know, despite what others have suggested.
Aqualung
Re the bees , a few weeks back I had over watered a chille plant and the pan under the pot was full of water. It was the start of 4 days of 40+ . Anyway I noticed the water in the saucer was soon mobbed by bees. After seeing how desperate they were for water I started leaving a tray half full of wood chips and water out. It has become a regular aerodrome for bees. Especially on hot days. I give myself bonus brownie points as I am allergic to the buggers.
I guess it’s too much to expect journos to get it right:
[‘In an unprecedented move, 3000 troops, the HMAS Adelaide and multiple aircrafts have been deployed to bushfire danger zones.’]
It’s not “the HMAS Adelaide”; it’s HMAS Adelaide. And it’s not “aircrafts”; it’s aircraft.
Aqua
Was part of the reason we moved to Tassie as we saw how oppressive the temps would become on the mainland in future years. We still have our hot days and bushfires though nevertheless.
Aqualung @ #6599 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 3:20 pm
I have the top off one of my tanks. I don’t care if bird germs get in the water. We only use it now for emergencies and then we boil it and cool it first. Or use it to put out a fire, heaven forbid!
Well done, O brave one.
E. G. Theodore @ #6644 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 3:27 pm
Speaking of permanently soiling himself, I notice that the Menzies House duty troll “michael” turns up only when Scummo’s dropped another turd. Must be Hell in Scummo’s jocks at present.
I’ll see if I can scrounge up something shallower Poroti. If I hadn’t turned up when I did, they may have drowned. Thanks for the tip.
That bouquet was for poroti and his bee care. 🙂
swamprat:
Actually the Roman Emperors provided “bread and circuses”, and almost all of them understood that the former was more important than the latter.
This bloke Morrison has failed to provide the bread, and only through incompetence has he inadvertently provided a circus. “Tiberius with a Twitter Feed”, as I said previously, but in fact Tiberius was competent as well as mendacious.
You really are trite and predictable. How much is Scrote paying you?
________________________________
The stupidest people don’t need to be paid. They actually pay good money to be duped.
Aqualung and poroti deserve gold stars.
Where’s kayjay with the elephant stamp?
Just for putting water out for them? Brownie points if you give mouth to mouth or chest compressions…… or hugs.
Puke alert
Senior federal minister Greg Hunt on Saturday morning backed the leadership of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who has been heavily criticised over his handling of the bushfire crisis gripping the country.
“I know that he’s just focused on the total task of deploying resources, of making sure that people are safe, and his focus, and our focus, is to save lives and protect lives and then to help with the recovery,” Mr Hunt said.
“I know that he’s been deeply, powerfully engaged in the process. I’m not aware there are any requests from any of the states which have not been met in full and I think that’s been confirmed by the premiers … and so at a time like this, of course there ar high emotions and, you know, there’s trauma, there’s grief, there can be high emotions and that’s entirely understandable.”
When asked how the federal government’s response to climate change would change in the face of what the Victorian government has said is an “unprecedented” bushfire season, Mr Hunt said Australia was beating its Kyoto and emissions targets.
“I think one of the important things is that we take this as a passionate, deep responsibility, and we do that both in terms of land management, it’s a combination of reducing emissions that go up but also increasing the land coverage in appropriate places around the country.”
(SMH)
Aqualung
Yes I noticed they got into difficulty in water pretty easily. Luckily I had a bag of chunky wood chip mulch handy and it has worked a treat. Especially once it sucks up a bit of water. They seem to like drinking from the wet surfaces of the wood. I’ve left it near the chillies so the buggers better do their stuff with the flowers to ‘pay’ for all the free drinks 🙂
Good one C@tmomma.
Steve Davis, the thought had occurred to me that Tassie might be a good place to retire.
Only fly in the ointment is the pending birth of my first grandchild.
It would feel like abandoning the family.
I’m pretty angry as it is with the global heating denialism.
It looks like we are going to be the first generation to leave the world in far worse condition than when we were born. And on top of that the numb nuts in charge seem to be determined to do the same to the economy.
Edit: numb not number.
This dingbat stuffs up everything he touches but Berejiklian doesn’t sack him:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/inexcusable-emergency-services-minister-apologies-for-european-holiday-20200104-p53oqj.html
Itza:
OMG I reckon Hunt would’ve had to ban every mirror in his house in order to get all that out.
Beyond pukeworthy!
ItzaDream
Hunt has used some very popular “powerful” words there. He’s got Communications 101 licked and might be aiming for Empathy 302.
focussed; making sure that people are safe; deeply, powerfully engaged in the process; there’s trauma, there’s grief, there can be high emotions; we take this as a passionate, deep responsibility.
Simon Katich
I’ve tried mouth to mouth and chest compressions but it didn’t work out and had to give it up. One of us kept dying and the other feeling like dying. This way…………………nobody dies 🙂
@JoshBBornstein tweets
the godless green left cause lightning strikes
@BOM_ACT tweets
#Canberra has reached 43.6C—a new hottest temperature record for any month. The previous Canberra records are 42.2C at Canberra Airport in 1968 and 42.8C at the now-closed Acton site in 1939. Observations at: http://ow.ly/NHWx50xMZ2L
ItzaDream @ #6661 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 3:36 pm
OK. Modifying the Despicable Dick standings:
(1) Scummo the Unready.
(2) the Lying Hunt.
(3) Elliot the Deserter Rat.
(4) Great Big Jobbie the House Entitlement Elf Taylor.
(5) Der unsichtbare Kartoffelführer.
(6) Fat Clive & his conjoined twin Gina the Hutt.
(7 – etc.) All the Denialist orcs of Murdoch’s Mordor.
Just listening to ScoMo on ABC News Radio telling a valiant interviewer live that the Commonwealth has been acting on the bushfires, providing “overwhelming support” to the states since October..
Now putting up the Wall Of Sound to shut her down but the spin is that the Commonwealth aid appears to have been provided in secret (hence no-one knew about it), has been in place for months but no-one noticed, today’s announcement did not represent a ramp-up because aid was already at ramp-up level, and the video of his “conversation” in Cobargo gives a mistaken impression that the woman was angry. You had to be there, and if you weren’t, then what would YOU know, ABC? ScoMo was there, and was in fact everywhere. Only he knows the true story of these fires.
All blurted out in 60 seconds over the top of the interviewer’s questions.
The week away in Hawaii was not brought up. I personally doubt whether it actually happened now. Maybe I was misinformed.
Confessions @ #6617 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 3:35 pm
Quite right.
🐘 Aqualung 🐘and 🐘 poroti 🐘
with
⚔ Swords, 💎 Diamonds
and
The thanks and admiration of your many admirers.
Sadly –
I was watcing Chanel Seven news which seemed a reasonable coverage of mostly the fire catastrophe when an urge, prompted prolly by the Antichrist prompted a switch to ABC 24.
Being old, miserable and badly depressed from yesterdays news that my G.P. is retiring, I was slow on the trigger when Mr. Whatsisname was revealed on the not so smart TV screen.
Now – who was it said that he (Mr. Whats….) made the skin craw.
Eventually managed to turn him off. Shortened my life – I do hope my next GP is up to the challenge created by scenes such as no man/woman/child should have to witness – that being a lying SOB blandly telling porkies to a national audience.
P.S. According to “The Australian” there is no audience and ABC should therefore be totally defunded and donated to Rupert Q. ………
Newcase 43℃ – it ain’t half hot mom.
This dingbat stuffs up everything he touches but Berejiklian doesn’t sack him:
_____________________
This fellow’s immovability reminds me of Eddie Obeid. Everyone knew about him but he had too much support from people who would break you if you stood up to him.
guytaur @ #6626 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 3:47 pm
actually, that’s an interesting point isn’t it. They think the greens are godless (no nasturtiums on PB greens, natch) and therefore worthy of unmitigated condemnation, from the High Holy Hypocrites so offended.
@RDriscoll767 tweets
Dead parrots falling from the sky,
Kangaroos with their feet burnt off,
Koala bears roasting in the trees,
Humans fleeing to the sea,
The problem with politicians like Scott Morrison is:
Explaining climate science to them you may as well be talking to your fridge. https://twitter.com/RDriscoll767/status/1212979138639777792/photo/1
I am reading a lot of tweets over at #auspol about Morison smirking and smiling while telling fibs. He does this when he knows he’s not telling the truth and the reporters don’t pick him up on it.
“Remember this disturbing grin? Professional liespotter Pamela Meyer calls it “Duper’s Delight,” the thrill a liar may not be able to contain at getting away with it.”
If anyone has twitter you may want to post about it because it seems no one has picked up on it yet.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/duping_delight
http://changingminds.org/explanations/behaviors/lying/dupers_delight.htm
https://www.criminalelement.com/dupers-delight-duping-lie-liars-smile-getting-away-with-it-liespotting-pamela-meyer-ted-crime-hq/
Steve Davis @3:23 PM.
Penrith 48.9 at 3.02pm.”
In the old money that’s a tad over 120.0°F.
Aqua
Its a reasonable place to retire.Always plenty of space apart from Hobart.Always cooler than the mainland.Housing a lot cheaper especially out of Hobart or Launceston. Still large blocks of land going cheap all round the state.We bought a 4 bedroom house on 1520m square block for $270,000 in the heart of a country town just a year ago.
For the person asking about Albo
@AlboMP tweets
The bushfire crisis is destroying lives and livelihoods. Grape growers and wineries in the Adelaide Hills have been hit hard. Local businesses need and deserve our support. https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1213291665487581190/photo/1
[‘Temperatures in Penrith at 48.9 degrees and still rising.
The mercury in Penrith in Sydney’s west has reached 48.9 degrees and is still rising, Bureau of Meteorology forecasters say.
Maximum temperatures in the area will likely be reached after 4pm on Saturday.
Forecasters also say a southerly change is expected to start affecting NSW’s South Coast “in the next few hours”, with the change to come through Bega after 5pm and hit Nowra at about 8pm.
The change will hit Sydney after 11pm on Saturday and move north to the Hunter at about 2am on Sunday.’]
C@t,
If Newscorp here operate the same way as in the UK (and I am sure they do) then they will have a dirt file on every Australian politician. Tom Watson and Martin Hickman’s book Dial M for Murdoch; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dial_M_for_Murdoch explained that Murdoch keeps a dirt file on everyone in public life, and this is how he gets access to governments. Just plain old blackmail.
Also hope you are safe and keeping cool.
Obeid is a convicted criminal who was moved. Elliott is not a convicted criminal who has not been moved.
rhwombat says: Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 3:49 pm
ItzaDream @ #6661 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 3:36 pm
Puke alert
Senior federal minister Greg Hunt on Saturday morning backed the leadership of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who has been heavily criticised over his handling of the bushfire crisis gripping the country.
*****************************************************************
An excellent column by Kevin Rudd on the influence of Murdoch
Democracy overboard: Rupert Murdoch’s long war on Australian politics
Australia has become the complacent country. Complacent about its future economic competitiveness. Complacent about climate change. Complacent about how to navigate our future in the region given China’s rise, America’s response and a neighbourhood increasingly torn between the two.
The latter, in particular, is perverting our national politics, undermining the public commons on which the nation can conduct a balanced policy debate on our national future. The Murdoch media has mutated to become a cancerous growth on our democracy. It no longer even pretends to be a media organisation, separating out news coverage from editorial option. Instead it has become a de facto political party prosecuting its own ideological and economic interests, acting as an effective coalition partner of the Liberal party.
You don’t have to be a Rhodes scholar to work out that since 2007 through to 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019, the Murdoch media, representing some 70% of the nation’s total print media, has hated the Australian Labor party’s guts. More broadly, they despise the progressive left. And they will do anything within their power to keep Labor out of office.
MORE : https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/06/democracy-overboard-rupert-murdochs-long-war-on-australian-politics
@steve davis
Up on the north coast, rarely over 25 C
A third of our way through a mortgage and we’re still under 30
Tough with the kids’ grandparents on the mainland though.
Coming from country NSW it’s nearly suburban, small towns but they’re all so close together
A stream of smoke from the west is appearing a few km south of our place in the far south of Canberra. From the RFS map, it seems to be coming from the Dunns Road fire west of Kosciuszko NP.
TPOF @ #6673 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 3:52 pm
He’s the Head Demon of the NSW AHA, wielding Pokie Pork like a the feral boar he is. Gladys is his pet mouse. Not even the NSW Talibangelicals, like Perrottet, can touch him. I hold vague hopes that Scummo will throw him on the pyre to delay Scummo’s own auto da fe, but “fugeddit Jake, it’s
ChinatownSydney…”.Shellbell
Before he was convicted waaaaay before he was convicted it was hardly a state secret that he and a lot of others stank to high heaven. Elliot doesn’t need to be convicted of anything to deserve a DCM.
Fark.. 48.6 at Penrith
Is this a wake up call to the”quiet australians” ?
Where is the media reporting on heat deaths?
“Senior federal minister Greg Hunt on Saturday morning backed the leadership of Prime Minister Scott Morrison”
Oh dear, that’s just one step away from pledging his “undying support”.
With a southerly buster forecast on the NSW south coast, with gusts up to 90 km per hour, anything could happen. For a start, the fires will be pushed northward, maybe as far north as Kiama, even farther.