Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
I assume this is DAvid Elliott in the background of this presser and that he hasn’t been required/allowed to speak yet.
lizzie @ #6677 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 4:27 pm
Totally beyond belief. What have we come to.
Imacca
Hope it is true.Pity no video evidence yet.
“Didn’t someone post that Cobargo voted ALP?”
I recall seeing that post a couple of days ago. Forget who by.
Cobargo has a population of 776.
Aqualung
Nah, the truth according to all the RWNJ twitterattis and Fascistbook pages is they are far worse than that . They are Greens voters.
nath:
The smartest of the progeny is his (younger) daughter Elisabeth, who he never really allowed in (though he did buy her company, possibly at an inflated price).
The second smartest is the son who has recently been eased out for holding “liberal” views (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/09/james-murdoch-fox-news-empire)
The eldest is not up to much.
That leaves Lachlan – he had a bit of a rebellion a couple of decades ago, but got squashed by Mr. Murdoch and has returned to the fold with a very different approach – there is a question as to whether that is pragmatic or a genuine change in his views.
Shareholders might back James if the companies had ordinary cap tables (i.e. ordinary for mature companies), this isn’t the case and it will be interesting to see what happens.
Its getting pretty bad PR when the Premier had to clarify she did not reject offers of support from the Commonwealth.
Andrew Barr on News 24 now
Steve777 @ #6709 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 1:44 pm
Yes, Cobargo voted ALP at the last election with a swing to MKelly of over 3%.
Jim Molan: AO (Arseholus Outstanding). DSC (DipShittus Creep).
Surely the Daily Telegraph wouldn’t be printing falsehoods, would it? 😆
@MichaelPascoe1 tweets
Even when finally shamed into acting, Stunt Morrison remains first and foremost #ScottyFromMarketting https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1213330419044638722
guytaur @ #6708 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 4:48 pm
She was clearly told not to ask for too much support – that way she could say she got everything she asked for, and Smirko could say he provided everything that was asked for.
That charade got blown out of the water this morning.
It has been excellent to see that Ley has been on the front foot in relation to the wildlife holocaust.
With what looks like Morrison spending more time on marketing than consulting and planning, this comes as little surprise.
Through gritted teeth –
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/jan/04/australia-nsw-fires-live-updates-victoria-bushfires-rfs-cfa-road-closures-near-sydney-melbourne-latest-news
Looks like Morrison took Premiers by surprise with today’s presser. RFS commissioner saying he had to ask Defence that reservists currently available for firefighting are not included in the call up. Will be a big stuff up if they are. At least there was a Brigadier at the presser who cold relay the State’s concerns.
First question to the Commissioner (wtte) how many fires started by arsonists? No points for guessing where she probably works. Answer – a few small fires is Sydney could have started this way but no mention of any of the major fires elsewhere.
Does anyone here know the situation in Bright?
Around 43 degrees, wind gusts to 50kph, and winds backed around to NW again.
#WeatheronPB
Boerwars
Front foot ? In helping it or hindering it ?
Lizzie @4.27 pm,
That post to farcebook or twitter would need corroboration from other sources to be reliable. It might be true but, then again, Ellie may just venting her spleen over how Scooty and that horrible little creep of a councillor treated Zoey Salucci McDermott and Cobargo.
citizen @ #6717 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 5:03 pm
Forgot to ask about exploding dung did they, shame.
Check out this rant.
https://www.facebook.com/hyndrx/videos/10156885739468723/
Fires now around 5km from the ACT border.
I trust that Barr will demand SAS intervention.
FMD!
Barrie Cassidy
@barriecassidy
·
1m
That is absolutely obscene. They are advertising their responses to the fires – promoting themselves – at the height of the crisis. Their reputation is paramount apparently.
Quote Tweet
Annabel Crabb
@annabelcrabb
· 19m
There’s an ad already. https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1213330419044638722
Boerwar
Sounds excellent weather for fire spreading. 🙁
Just had a read of that Samantha Maiden tweet thread with Molan.
Turns out the publican in that last Facebook post I saw is the local liberal councillors son!
Many have returned from holidays to help. Howzat, ScoMo?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/04/australia-bushfire-coverage-abc-emergency-fire-broadcasts-praised-as-news-corp-goes-on-attack?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
C Ch
Go to CFA Fires near me
tap on the emergency services address
use ‘Bright’ as a search term.
It looks clear but if the winds turn south west I would not be so sure.
Vic:
He ain’t Scotty from Marketing for no reason!!
For any that missed it @MurrayWatt tweeted
Morrison’s claim to have responded to water bomber business case is not true. @nafcaus sought ongoing funding, he only granted one off funding. NSWRFS Commissioner said this morning this funding uncertainty impeded provision of aircraft.
The story about form filling is obviously satire, but reflects the fact that Mr Morrison’s Praetorian Guard has reached an unprecedented level of misanthropic incompetence.
It is certainly “Tiberius with a Telephone” but even more so it is Sejanus on Mogadon!
Victoria
The response to the ads has not been good………………….for Scrott. First replies on the page. Includes one from Paul Syvret.
Angry Granny
@AngryGranny1
·
36m
Replying to
@ScottMorrisonMP
Hi Scott Morrison, where’s the snippet of you on holiday in Hawaii? Shouldn’t that be in there somewhere???
♀️
@wallacesmother
·
27m
And at the cricket and hosting NYs at Kirribilli while families cowered from fire storms on a beach. ♀️ #NotMyPrimeMinister #ScottyFromMarketting needs to #Resign #auspol
Paul Syvret
@PSyvret
·
32m
Replying to
@ScottMorrisonMP
And you had to be shamed into doing anything beyond sitting back on a beach chair in Hawaii and waiting for the Rapture.
1 more reply
SydEV
@sydney_ev
·
41m
Replying to
@ScottMorrisonMP
Why did you ignore all the warnings as far back as April last year that we will need a serious increase in assets to fight these predicted fires?
Fess
Absolutely disgusting. I have no words
Who in the name of pathetic chose that completely inappropriate soundtrack of jingly jangly optimism laid over our scorched dead earth- it’s plane crashing musak.
“Boerwar says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 5:07 pm
Fires now around 5km from the ACT border.
I trust that Barr will demand SAS intervention.”
Where are these supposed fires? The RFS doesn’t seem to know about them.
Poroti
These people have no shame
@JezNews tweets
This is ABC reporter @adrianereardon, in Bega, NSW at 510pm. It’s still daylight above all that smoke. #nswfires https://twitter.com/JezNews/status/1213343050660868098/photo/1
Re Silver Bodgie @5:07.
I’d respond to that but I’m not on Facebook.
But those who are (nearly everyone else in the world?) should respond to this guy to the effect that “Greenies” don’t have the power to stop hazard reductions even if they wanted to.
Avoid the temptation to return abuse and violent language. He’s upset.
@smh tweetes
‘We’re in for a long night’, said Premier Gladys Berejiklian. Almost 140 fires continue to burn across NSW. About a dozen fires have been upgraded to emergency level. Latest #nswfires updates:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-fires-live-updates-rfs-braces-for-spreading-fire-fronts-as-soaring-temperatures-and-high-winds-fan-flames-20200104-p53oq6.html
ItzaDream
Well it was better than their initial choices, Talking Heads ‘Burning Down the House” and “I Just Don’t Care That Much ” by Matt Maeson .
@mrgnarchr tweets
Oh look at that the skies are black and it’s about a quarter past the apocalypse.
Can we freak out yet @SkyNewsAust?
How about now @newscomauHQ
Or are you all to busy licking Murdoch’s boot to care about your own survival still? https://twitter.com/mattcandrive/status/1213333821254320129
This is Cooma right now. #NSWfires #AustraliaBurning #AustraliaFires https://twitter.com/mattcandrive/status/1213333821254320129/photo/1
Those words in Scotty’s tweet are the same words he used in his presser. The exact same.
#ScottyfromMarketing
NSW RFS says pyroclulomous clouds have formed over the Snowys and they are withdrawing firefighters due to the risk. Same conditions that caused the trucks to blow over in Jingellic are forming.
lizzie @ #6749 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:23 pm
Ironic and extremely galling given Gladys has been on since the get-go, while marketing man was sunning himself in a catatonic state in Hawaii.
From the Guardian report on the ABC