Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
Yeah if only someone had warned the government months ago.
Like, say, the Fire Chiefs.
Reports of thousands upon thousands of dead bush birds washed up on the Mallacoota beach.
Smoko: “the arsehole of the 2020s”.
Is that Samantha Maiden’s voice grilling him?
If so, good on you Sam!
“These arms have given a lot of hugs over the last few months.” What’s the icon for vomit?
#WeatheronPB.
Maxima so far today:
Sydney Olympic Park: 45.7°
Penrith: 47.8°
Check out the plume of smoke in this link:
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/too-late-to-leave-lives-under-threat-after-dramatic-escalation/news-story/a37cfa95c19df843d04196507b566cd5
lizzie @ #6459 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:35 am
I’ve swtiched off. Did he really say that?!
Morrison is an A grade self-promoter.
Like Rudd, he will take it hard when ultimate rejection is dealt to him.
BW,
Do you know if the heath at Shipwreck Ck burnt?
Murdoch’s paper boy! Sorry. Emotion wins again.
Penrith 47.8. Climate deniers say “No its only 25, the BOM is lying again”
Yes. Let’s burn down all the National Parks. And stop the arsonists. And take out the horseshit.
The personal tragedy for SmoCo is that he’ll probably give himself top marks for this.
It’s all about the buildup of fuel in national parks, and arson.
And we all agree on climate change and will continue the actions we have been taking
I just can’t….
Did he add “and bugger all else”?
Fess
Yes, he really said it.
Global fossil fuel subsidies reach $5.2 trillion, and $29 billion in Australia
https://reneweconomy.com.au/global-fossil-fuel-subsidies-reach-5-2-trillion-and-29-billion-in-australia-91592/
We know who Smoko supports and its not bushfire victims.
The IMF estimates that annual energy subsidies in Australia total $29 billion, representing 2.3 per cent of Australian GDP. On a per capita basis, Australian fossil fuel subsidies amount to $1,198 per person.
Re Morrion’s announcement today the usual saying is “a dollar short and a day late.”
But, we are actually talking about millions and months.
Just did a water top up for the birds. Now 46.
🌶
Rex Douglas:
[‘Morrison is an A grade self-promoter.
Like Rudd, he will take it hard when ultimate rejection is dealt to him.’]
Rudd was in the first instance turfed by his colleagues; Morrison will be turfed by the electorate. I just can’t see him recovering from this, despite his ability to spin, and Murdoch’s flunkey’s defending him. Even those who’ve only inhaled smoke will take to him.
Morrison trying to make a virtue of the fact that until now they have been working on a “response to requests” model, but “going forward” they will be taking the initiative.
“What do 3000 reservists have to offer to fire fighting that could not be supplied by 3000 non RFS citizen volunteers, equally not qualified or trained to use equipment, hold hoses, or knowing when to get the hell out of danger?”
FS, i would expect that a lot of those reservists will be grunts under the supervision of Army Engineers. Clearing roads to get supplies through is a likely priority. Burying dead animals and livestock important for health reasons and not contaminating dams and rivers? Clearing burnt out properties maybe?
Interesting thought just occurred to me.
We have quite a few of these:
https://www.historynet.com/lav-25.htm
That are being replaced by the new Boxers.
Strip the turret and combat kit off (we already have APC and engineering versions) and you have very mobile amphibious vehicle. Useful for emergency support in fire and flood.
And then there are these.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LARC-V
Been around for years and have proven VERY robust and useful in a lot of roles. US currently has a program to build a modern fast version but we wouldn’t need that for disaster relief. Again, highly mobile (but no LAV) and amphibious.
If we want to increase our disaster relief capabilities at modest cost a stock of these as mounts for ADF reservists may be worth a look.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced the commonwealth will no longer wait for state requests for assistance, as the Governor-General signed a call-out of the Defence Reserve across Australia.
For the first time in our nation’s history a compulsory call out for up to 3000 army reservists will be made, calling reserves to work in fire-affected areas across the country.
Three joint task forces have been established to assist across NSW, Victoria and South Australia.
The SA taskforce will pay particular focus on Kangaroo Island where two people died along the Playford Highway when fire overran their car.
The CFD will be run by two-star Major General Jake Ellwood.
The primary focus of these joint task forces is to provide isolated communities with supplies, provides evacuation to vulnerable people, to assess at-risk areas and to fight fire breaks away from the fire.
Reservists called upon will complete continuous full-time service and be treated as regular full-time members. Defence Minister Linda Reynolds, an ADF reservist herself, said reservists will “remain in place until it is no longer needed”.
“This is what the ADF does best. “Day jobs will be protected under legislation,” she later confirmed.
😆 I hope it catches on.
captain pirate monkey disguised as a horse
@jonkudelka
Just tried out my new response to “the greenies did the fires” which comprises “I can see how an absolute fucking idiot might think that”. He left the gallery without buying anything but to be fair I don’t think he was going to anyway.
6:54 AM · Jan 4, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
Very cool change has come through my neck of woods
And where’s Greg Hunt?
I think what there’ll be a mortality bubble in about 1-5 years where lots of blood cancers start showing up from the smoke. Ash in the lungs ins’t good.
Morrison has the gift of talking extensively about something obliquely related to a question and weaving in his own unrelated points. The listener tries to follow the “answer” (it’s actually a response) waiting for it to make sense, and by the time they get confused, because of course it isn’t an answer, they’ve forgotten the question. Masterly.
“Reports of thousands upon thousands of dead bush birds washed up on the Mallacoota beach.”
Heard someone on ABC yesterday on that. They reckon that a lot of birds basically vacuumed up into pyrocumulus clouds, killed and then dropped every where. 🙁
Unless those extra planes are flying today in NSW, SA and Vic and unless those 3000 extra troops are on the ground helping ravaged and destroyed communities within 24 hours then it is all horseshit.
Seeing that will not happen then it is all horseshit.
Whatever Morrison is promising to happen at some point in the future will be a stark comparison with the pictures and stories of what actually unfolds in real time today across the country.
Glad to see the independent commentators aren’t buying the narrative.
Hottest day on record here……..Penrith………47.8C………….FMD it’s hot.
#weatheronPB
Since May I’m sure they have.
Right on target.
[‘The Prime Minister has announced a “change in posture” for the government as Australian Defence Force Reserve members are called up to assist with the bushfire crisis.
The government will move from responding to requests from the states to instead integrate with local response efforts.
The Governor-General has signed off on the callout of the Army Reserve to fire affected communities.
Initially up to 3000 will be called up, but the Prime Minister later told reporters more will be called up if necessary.
The Prime Minister said 23 people have died and more than 1500 homes destroyed so far.’]
Had this fool of a man taken the advice of climate scientists, fire and emergency chiefs seriously, it probably would not’ve been a case of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. And wasn’t it Morrison who said the ADF, and by implication, the Rockies, weren’t trained to fight bush fires? The man’s full of shit.
Amidst that excessive presser
Interesting to see SmoKo suck the ALP into the climate change question, he’s saying current action is bipartisan, nothing between the Lib and Lab parties
Coal and gas are good for the country, nothing more to do or say here
Wondering if anyone will ask Albo if that’s true from him too?
https://theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/26/climate-change-will-hit-australia-harder-than-rest-of-world-study-shows
I noticed the pond alongside the bus/lr shared zone on Alison Rd has dried up significantly. Meanwhile on the opposite side of Alison Rd Randwick Racecourse has had the sprinklers running non-stop all week. Mustn’t disappoint the punters I guess.
I realise the racecourse is sitting on top of part of Sydney’s original water supply but there is something obscene about what looks like an indulgence at this time.
Penrith now 48.1°.
Quoll @ #6491 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:00 pm
We all know the two major parties are essentially same same on ‘climate change’ policy.
The really tragic thing in all this is there’s no change in sight.
lizzie @ #6470 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 1:46 pm
Let the healing begin.
This is the point where Scrote attempts to rewrite the last couple of months in his favour.
The punters will forgive him.
This was always going to be.
Right on time.
A nice story set against a sea of tragedy:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7850011/Hero-saved-nine-koalas-bushfires-shares-photo-marsupial-wrapped-blanket.html
“going forward”
I recall Gillard getting caned by our MSM for using ‘moving forward’ a few times in a speech (campaign?).
lizzie @ #6286 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 1:06 pm
I noticed the phrase “should be directly observable by 2020.”
mundo @ #6494 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:06 pm
You really are trite and predictable. How much is Scrote paying you?
lizzie:
[‘Right on time.’]
Garnaut got it precisely right but no one listened.
lizzie @ #6498 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:08 pm
David Elliott is back in town. Simples.