Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

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  1. Only a few days ago Scotty said states would have to request this assistance. Now it’s being offered carte blanche, up front.

    Interesting that it takes a personal hit to his image and ego to spurn the man into action.

  4. So, the government at last “Moving Forward”.

    So much for deciding these things “in the fullness of time”, and “not acting too hastily”, and “being a serious government by not rushing things”.

    Two dozen people dead, wildlife wiped out, fires bigger than the recent tragedy of the Amazon, 1200 homes razed, tens of thousands stranded and cut-off, businesses and tourism in tatters.

    And only NOW he gets that it’s an emergency.

    In short: they’re calling out the army, at last. Almost everything on the ex-Commissioners’ list – the one that he already knew the contents of – except timeliness.

  5. Confessions @ 1.01 pm,
    Those fire chiefs aren’t the Solemn Sacred Saintly Spiritual Scooty Scotty of Sacredness and Reverend Reverent Righteous Rats Arse of ‘straya.

  12. After a night of “What can we tell them?” I can imagine that cabinet meeting this morning. Here’s yours. And yours. And yours. … Now let’s hear you say them.

  13. Move forward is code for “you would be un Australian to look back at what I got up to for the last month””…. that one is as old as the hills.

  14. Seems that the “new” announcements in Smoko’s presser are 3000 reservists and 4 heavy water bombers. Great. needed stuff.

    Problem for Smoko is that this is all stuff that could have been organized as a contingency if the Libs had gotten off their arses, and ready to roll weeks ago. But hey, lets praise Jaessssus for the PM simply doing his fwarking job for a change. 🙂

  15. Boerwar @ #6375 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:20 am

    JM
    Thanks for the points about fire behaviour and consequences for eucs in the north.
    When I was a volunteer firey up there we did not have to put up with Gamba grass, thanks be to dog.

    poroti @ #6388 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:32 am

    Boerwar

    Saw a couple of Gamba grass fires up the NT , small areas but FMD its a wall of flame meters high. Terrible stuff.

    I have seen a large stand of it burn. It is a firey’s nightmare. Everything they don’t want to deal with.

    –––––––––––

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/03/greta-thunberg-sharon-twitter-celebrity-mastermind

    The Sharon formerly known as Greta?

  18. “It’s his gabble mode he uses when all he has is sack of “facts” to pad out the nothing”

    Noticed that. Not a good look and speaks to panic behind the scenes.

  19. Dom Knight
    @domknight
    ·
    1h
    Seriously, where is Peter Dutton?

    Millions spent on saving us from a few terrorists and nothing on preparation for the current crisis. which has been forecast for years.

  20. Smirko’s “messaging” is crystal clear – the States weren’t asking for enough help, so Smirko had to step in to save the “Quiet Australians” who have been doing it tough.

    THIS DISASTER HAS BEEN GOING ON SINCE SEPTEMBER, FFS.

    WHAT TOOK YOU IDIOTS SO LONG?

  22. This is sickening! MINDEF is thanking Morrison for “his incredible leadership”.

    Open the window, sweetheart, and you’ll hear Australia laughing.

  23. JM @ #6413 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 1:15 pm

    Boerwar @ #6375 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:20 am

    JM
    Thanks for the points about fire behaviour and consequences for eucs in the north.
    When I was a volunteer firey up there we did not have to put up with Gamba grass, thanks be to dog.

    poroti @ #6388 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:32 am

    Boerwar

    Saw a couple of Gamba grass fires up the NT , small areas but FMD its a wall of flame meters high. Terrible stuff.

    I have seen a large stand of it burn. It is a firey’s nightmare. Everything they don’t want to deal with.

    –––––––––––

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/03/greta-thunberg-sharon-twitter-celebrity-mastermind

    The Sharon formerly known as Greta?

    Wrong Sharon!

  25. There is another positive aspect to this ADF response. If the ADF is tied up in operations in Australia we have an out for not being involved in any Mid East blow up??

  27. Scotty is imagining the Daily Telegraph front page and praiseworthy headlines that will inevitably follow his pulling his finger out of his ass.

  31. Ugh!

    “More boots on the ground, more planes in the skies, more ships and sea and more trucks rolling in”.

    #ScottyfromMarketing

  32. nath,

    yep it is fascinating. I’d be happy with a backyard to be honest.

    David Holmgren – who was one of Bill Mollison’s collaborator wrote a book about designing bush fire proof houses in the early 1980’s:
    https://store.holmgren.com.au/product/flywire-house/

    Holmgren has a property in Hepburn that was impacted by fires during early 2019:

    https://holmgren.com.au/reflections-on-fire-february-2019/

    From the research for Permaculture One in the 1970s in the house Bill Mollison saved from the great 1967 fires, to the research for the Flywire House project in the aftermath of Ash Wednesday fires of 1983 to the publication of Bushfire Resilient Landscapes and Communities in the aftermath of Black Saturday (2009), permaculture responses to the risks of bushfire have been a central theme of my life’s work. Although I have many friends who have faced and fought these and other great fires of the last 60 years, my direct fire fighting experience has been limited to 5 fires of more modest proportions.

    Before moving to Hepburn in 1985 I had assessed the town as the most fire vulnerable I had seen in Victoria but I was confident we could build a bushfire resistant house, and fire retardant permaculture landscape on our property, where we could stay and defend through the worst case scenarios. The case study book about Melliodora we published in 1995 included a theme page on bushfire resistant design and our household bushfire plan.

    The Mannings Rd Hepburn Fire (2 & 3rd Feb 2019) was the first direct bushfire threat to Melliodora.

    Over the years we have updated our bushfire plan but on Black Saturday 2009 I began implementing aspects of our plan never before tested, even though there were no fires in our region. Two weeks later a 7,000 hectare fire on the south side of Daylesford, that created a panic in our community, provided another psychological boost to testing our fire plan. Black Saturday also triggered a significant upgrade of our fire fighting equipment, retrofits to some buildings, tweaks to our fire plan and a renewed focus on work on the public land to our north.

  34. “Open the window, sweetheart, and you’ll hear Australia laughing.”

    So, so wRONg BB.

    Its the collective sound of violent regurgitation. Cue major sewage crisis as our drains all fill up at the same time.

    Smoko gabbling on trying to do empathy and gravitas. He really should know when to simply STFU. The telling repeatedly people how good they are for what they have already done is going to clash with a lot of peoples lived experience and reinforce the “ad-man” theme.

  35. What do 3000 reservists have to offer to fire fighting that could not be supplied by 3000 non RFS citizen volunteers, equally not qualified or trained to use equipment, hold hoses, or knowing when to get the hell out of danger?

    I would have thought 100 new appliances and a half dozen water bombers were of more immediate benefit.

    But they cost money.

    Won’t anybody think of the surplus!

  37. “When I listen to … this is the response that is required.” Leadership or CYA’ship. And I can’t get over how exasperated he feels that he has to explain this to us. Daddy understands you’re confused, but it’s OK.

  39. Constantly repeating how much he’s consulted communities and now he’s moving forward.

    Oh, and BTW, how much confidence can we have that Centrelink will deal fairly with people?

  43. “One of my fave reintroduction stories: re-introduce wolves, get more beaver.”

    Boom Tish. 🙂

    It is however a wonderful story about the interconnections in an ecology that are not actually obvious. Yup, not perfect for rehabilitating the park, but better than where they were and very worthwhile.

  45. Give yourself another pat on the back SmoCo why don’t you?

    This orgy of self-congratulation by these wankers is starting to induce the puke reflex in my delicate little tummy. I knew I shouldn’t have eaten breakfast.

    Press conference paraphrased: “We have ALWAYS been acting. We have NEVER shirked our duty. We have given them EVERYTHING they ever asked us for, every time they asked for it, for years. Hawaii? I’d like to go there some day!”

    SmoCo must be in a lot more trouble than even the Bludgers think they are. There far too much “I’ve been here. I’ve been there. I’ve been EVERYWHERE. ALWAYS!”

  50. OMG

    A question on smoke damage to health and basically he answers that smoke comes and goes and the Health Minister is dealing with it.

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