Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

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  2. beguiledagain

    As I posted previously that ALP policy amazingly appeared just three days after the Greens announced a far better funded version of it on March 14
    https://nick-mckim.greensmps.org.au/articles/national-disaster-response-unit

    Who knew it would only take a few days for the ALP to have the same idea, with less resourcing?

    This was apparently reiterated by RDN to an ABC interview on Jan 1 but which has not been shown or raised. Along with the call for a RC into what has evidently been a massive failure to understand and prepare for the circumstances facing Australia today, despite months and years of advice otherwise.

    Too early to point out the gross lack of understanding and perspective by the govt?

    Meanwhile I wonder if SmoKo, and Albo, will listen to Tina Arena calling even the SmoKo himself to end any new coal mines? via Guardian

  4. With evacuees disembarking in Hastings (Victoria), there’s a mighty big drill hall in HMAS Cerberus (Crib Point), a short distance from Hastings, if the Sommerville relief centre fills to capacity. There would also be plenty of empty beds given most of the ship’s company would be on leave Xmas leave.

  5. Boerwar

    The anti-greenies/RWNJs are blaming the eucalypts, as if they have free will and start the fires all by themselves.

    Obviously my sarcasm skill is not adequate for the present situation.

  7. nath,

    I was interested in Permaculture back in the 1990-early 2000’s and did some volunteer work with the Ceres permaculture group in the really early days when they were trying to get something happening near what is now the cafe. I did a design course circa 2001, but haven’t really been in a position to apply.

    From my understanding the principle is more along the lines of mimicking natural water capture in the soil. The designers manual has a fair bit on broadscale design and that is treated differently to the zones close to the house. Broadscale is more along the lines of cultivating on contour using PA Yeoman’s Keyline system.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cc18o6j9fGQ


  8. Quoll says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 12:20 pm

    beguiledagain

    As I posted previously that ALP policy amazingly appeared just three days after the Greens announced a far better funded version of it on March 14

    Even if true, the difference is the Greens policy announcements may make it to the Greens web site as carefully crafted words.
    Labors policy ( if the anti Labor parties, the Greens and Liberals don’t succeed in stopping them getting elected) may end up being implemented policy.

  10. nath
    For industrial scale, first cab off the rank would have to be grazing, IMO because tillage of any form immediately brings with it more difficult challenges. You can fine-tune grazing effort to prevent damaging your permaculture thresholds. This might involve keeping cattle out of depressions (pucking) or creek banks (erosion). But it might also include a willingness to slaughter rather than to overgraze. This relates to another assumption in permaculture – that there is sufficient capital to enable early slaughter decisions to be made on time rather than making them too late in relation to environmental sustainability type thresholds.

    If you look at non permaculture drought grazing across millions of ha right now what you will tend to see is dirt paddocks with nothing on them or dirt paddocks with hand feeding – in other words the existing system encourages farmers to hang onto stock when they should not do so. Two factors bear here. The first is that purchase price of Australian farmland tends to reflect overcapitalization. The second is that a significant amount of farming is debt-funded.

    There is a historical and current global pattern that the last thing farmers do before being forced off the land is totally rooting the farm environment. This can best be analysed, IMO, as a poverty signal.

    Anyhoo, one of the things I have noticed is that proponents tend to analyse permaculture without analysing capital management.

  11. thanks bakunin, I have heard of keyline but haven’t really got into it. I think they have some great ideas particularly around the use of different species. For example using chickens in combination with orchards for pest control and fertilizer. I notice too that from all reports those Australian farmers that have taken up rotational grazing with electric fences are seeing really big increases in soil moisture and productivity. It’s an intriguing subject and makes one yearn for a few hundred hectares, some earth moving equipment and an army of serfs!

  12. Somebody pointed out yesterday that news.com.au, pedestrian and daily mail all have click-driven business models so if they were starting to display anti-Morrison stories it implies they are getting clicks…

    No wonder the RWNJ bullshit mills are revving up.

    Aside, the next Newspoll and Essential polls could make interesting reading. They should restart when parliament sits (early Feb) but I wouldn’t be surprised if Newspoll was unaccountably delayed.

  13. Boerwar says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 12:29 pm

    There is a historical and current global pattern that the last thing farmers do before being forced off the land is totally rooting the farm environment. This can best be analysed, IMO, as a poverty signal.

    Anyhoo, one of the things I have noticed is that proponents tend to analyse permaculture without analysing capital management.
    ___________
    yes good points.

  14. nath says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 12:33 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 12:29 pm

    There is a historical and current global pattern that the last thing farmers do before being forced off the land is totally rooting the farm environment. This can best be analysed, IMO, as a poverty signal.
    ____________________
    Might be a role for private equity looking at degraded landscapes with the long term rehabilitation of the landscape and eventual productivity.

  15. Quoll @ #6821 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 9:20 am

    beguiledagain

    As I posted previously that ALP policy amazingly appeared just three days after the Greens announced a far better funded version of it on March 14
    https://nick-mckim.greensmps.org.au/articles/national-disaster-response-unit

    Who knew it would only take a few days for the ALP to have the same idea, with less resourcing?

    This was apparently reiterated by RDN to an ABC interview on Jan 1 but which has not been shown or raised. Along with the call for a RC into what has evidently been a massive failure to understand and prepare for the circumstances facing Australia today, despite months and years of advice otherwise.

    Too early to point out the gross lack of understanding and perspective by the govt?

    Meanwhile I wonder if SmoKo, and Albo, will listen to Tina Arena calling even the SmoKo himself to end any new coal mines? via Guardian

    Labor’s policy development only takes 2-3 days. 😆 😆 😆

  16. poroti @ #5872 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 5:48 pm

    People should start turning up to places where Morrison visits holding a lump of coal. No throwing but a bit of waving it around like he did in Parliament.

    Probably more effective if they just stood still and silent, holding the coal in front of them as he walks past.

    Be an excellent visual for various media.

    ––––––––––

    Bushfire Bill @ #6194 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 8:22 am

    The only “burning for us” Morrison has done recently has involved sunburn in Fiji and Hawaii, and his reputation going up in smoke.

    What he really meant was, “You’ll be burning for me.”

    poroti @ #6196 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 8:25 am

    He said “I’ll burn you” . The ‘for’ was inserted in error.

    The Fryer from the Shire.

    –––––––––

    JimmyD @ #6249 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 9:42 am

    Scout
    Australia is better than this and should expect better from our elected representatives.

    Are we though? Can we expect better from our elected representatives when we keep rewarding their behaviour?

    +1

    –––––––––

    lizzie @ #6277 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 9:59 am

    Queen Victoria
    @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    1m
    Australia is not just reckoning with climate change’s catastrophic effects with #AustraliaBurns, we’re also watching real time the way propaganda wars are lit by Lib Nat fire bugs, spread by vested interests in news media, accepted by unhinged right wingers, adding fuel to fire.

    Spread that meme. Turn it back on the bastards. Burn them with it.

    –––––––––

    C@tmomma @ #6297 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:11 am

    Blobbit @ #6290 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:34 am

    “nathsays:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:26 am
    All the Murdoch hacks just spend each night praying for Rupert’s health”

    I thought Rupert’s progeny were even further on the RWNJ spectrum than he was?

    Of the boys, one is…Lachlan and the other is not…James. Which is why Rupert bequeathed the running of his Fox News empire to Lachlan.

    IIRC, some years back the adult daughter, Elizabeth, gave a major speech in the UK strongly supporting the role of public broadcasting.

    –––––––––

    lizzie @ #6331 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:33 am

    Lenore Taylor
    @lenoretaylor
    ·
    16m
    The sick irony of the current situation is that anti-environmentalism is getting more extreme precisely at the moment when the prospects for decisive action should be better than ever. – Apocalypse Becomes the New Normal

    It’s the fault of the eucalypts that they’re burning. Nothing to do with human activity!

    If God didn’t want them to Burn for Australia™, then why did He fill them with so much of those flammable oils?

    –––––––––

    Boerwar @ #6339 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:42 am

    If we take eucalypts as being advantaged by fire then the drift of the continent northwards into hotter and drier climes has been the primary driver. Use of fire by Indigenous nations has also been critical for the past 60,000 years or so.

    Suppression of Indigenous burning along the Great Dividing range’s forests has, I assume, led to massive pent up potential once we have ignition.

    Put together then, continental drift, human ignition and accelerated global warming means that eucalypts are partially doing their own thing and partially hitching an evolutionary ride off human activity.

    Eucalypts (and other native flora species) in the north of Oz, at least, cannot handle repeat high intensity burns.

    One of the consequences of introduced weeds like Gamba and Mission is that they burn very hot and for longer than natural background burns, which suppresses and kills off native flora (along with competition for space, nutrients, water, etc).

    Presumably southern native flora can also only handle so much burning.

  17. lizzie:

    [‘Andrews said yesterday that Cerberus was being made available.’]

    Good to hear. It’s is the biggest naval depot in Australia. I know it very well. And to think that before the crisis became the crisis it is now, Morrison claimed the states and territories were responsible for nearly all logistical arrangements.

  20. Currently 44.3 C here on the border of Bennelong and Berowra electorates.

    Take care PBers in the threatened areas please.

    #moreweatheronPB

  21. Quoll,

    On coal mining, I suspect the global market is going to shutter most of Australia’s coal capacity with 5-10 years regardless of what domestic politicians tell their audiences.

    This was analysis was published 31 December 2019:

    https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2043258-viewpoint-australian-coal-margins-face-weakness

    A weaker Australian dollar is shielding domestic thermal coal mining firms from the worst effects of rising costs and weaker prices, but margins are still under pressure, with the big four producers all forecasting falls in 2020.

    Key producers Glencore, Yancoal, BHP and Whitehaven have all said they expect margin compression in 2020, even at $80/t fob Newcastle, which is above the current spot price for 6,000 kcal/kg coal. Switzerland-based bank UBS forecasts Whitehaven, which is the only pure play thermal coal firm it covers, to slip to a loss with spot prices around $80/t or a bit lower.

    In this downside scenario, these four large mining firms will have a grace period in which they can continue to operate at a loss, but smaller, higher cost curve mining firms may be forced to suspend operations or call in the administrators if average prices remain at current lows.

    This article was reprinted in SMH on 23 October 2019:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/23/reuters-america-column-the-russians-are-coming-for-asia-and-europes-coal-markets-russell.html

    RUSSIA TO EAT AUSTRALIA’S LUNCH?

    Russia’s exports to the Far East have risen, with Refinitiv data showing seaborne imports of the country’s coal by Asian countries at 71.2 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2019, up 14% from the same period a year earlier.

    A rise in China’s imports to 20.5 million tonnes from 16.1 million accounted for much of the increase but also of note is the 10.4 million tonnes Japan took from Russia, up from 9.1 million.

    While Indonesia increased exports to Asia by 9.9% in the first nine months of 2019, and Australia by 4.4%, both trailed Russia in terms of percentage gains.

    It’s perhaps Australian exporters who should be feeling the most under threat from Russia, given that it also produces higher quality thermal coal, while Indonesia predominately ships lower grade fuel.

    Russian producers have to pay about $28 a tonne to ship coal to the Far East, but the sailing time from Vostochny port to major buyers such as China and Japan is a just couple of days, compared with more than two weeks from Australia.

    Russia plans to increase shipments to the Far East, with major exporter Carbo One planning to boost Vostochny port’s capacity to 40 million tonnes in 2020 from 29 million currently.

    With low mining costs, a state-supported rail system, an expanded port and far lower sea freight charges, Russia’s coal exports will be more competitive in Asia than those from Australia.

    Australian producers are struggling to make money at the current Newcastle port weekly price of $65.69 a tonne, as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus.

    However, at this price Russian coal is quite profitable, which will encourage the country’s producers to look at ways of increasing volumes further.

  23. ‘nath says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 12:31 pm

    thanks bakunin, I have heard of keyline but haven’t really got into it. I think they have some great ideas particularly around the use of different species. For example using chickens in combination with orchards for pest control and fertilizer. I notice too that from all reports those Australian farmers that have taken up rotational grazing with electric fences are seeing really big increases in soil moisture and productivity. It’s an intriguing subject and makes one yearn for a few hundred hectares, some earth moving equipment and an army of serfs!’

    Rotation (dairy) grazing using electric fencing has been around for half a century in Australia. It is another way of managing stock. The chosen thresholds for rotation grazing (including using electric fences or other forms of paddock rotation) depend on what is getting priority. This might include allocating scarce good feed, reducing trampling losses, parasite management or soil-moisture management.

  27. JM
    Thanks for the points about fire behaviour and consequences for eucs in the north.
    When I was a volunteer firey up there we did not have to put up with Gamba grass, thanks be to dog.

  28. ‘bakunin says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 12:50 pm

    BW,

    The coal industry being shuttered?’

    I hesitate to re-ignite a ferocious wildfire on this one!

  29. Get ready. Scrott due for a presser in a few minutes after the National Save Scotty Committee meeting What will they come up with ? Scrott is pig headed enough I would not be surprised if he continues his Comical Ali routine.

  32. I have just been mulling over some analogies with our current state of affairs.

    One echo was that of living in occupied Holland during World War 2 which was far, far worse than what is happening in Australia right now.

    But some of the psychological comparisons between living in an occupied country and living in a bushfire zone are eerily similar.

  33. BW,

    fair cop.

    I got the feeling that the permaculture broadscale was stuff was largely just lifted from Yeoman’s to fill a gap. There didn’t seem to be much evidence that Mollison had implemented broad scale designs.

  34. The main reason that you get flash floods after fires is that the leaf mulch layer, which is normally about 150 mm deep, has been burnt off. This layer normally acts as a type of sponge, to absorb much of the first 20 mm or so of rainfall. Many Australian soils are hydrophobic, rejecting water, and without a mulch layer, the water just runs off, taking lots of soil with it.

  37. KayJay @ #6065 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 6:50 am

    For AR should you be about.

    C+ needs a tweak to adjust for very long threads.

    I see what you mean, though there’s not much the plugin can do about it; it’s actually the blog that’s being slow.

    To get the most recent posts, the plugin calls a URL like:

    https://www.pollbludger.net/wp-json/wp/v2/comments/?post=43143&per_page=50&page=1&before=2020-01-04T12:24:55

    Problem is that the blog takes almost a full minute to deliver a response to that (probably because the number of posts cause the backing database to get bogged down):

    So the plugin works, just requires a bit of patience on this thread. Some things that might help are:

    – Reduce the ‘Comments per page’ option in the plugin settings
    – Ensure you’re using ‘Recent comments first’
    – Increase the ‘Auto-update interval’ to 5 minutes
    – Avoid manually refreshing the page; just be patient and let the auto-updates work
    – Avoid adding superfluous posts to the thread 🙂
    – Hope a new thread starts soon

  38. What is this presser for? Scotty isn’t telling anyone anything they haven’t already been told by fire chiefs in those states.

  39. @TheKouk
    ·
    16m
    Is this a joke? A senior Minister who, with the stroke of a pen, could find billions of dollars and resources to help people
    A true bludger expecting others to do the heavy lifting in this disaster
    ***

    Peter Dutton
    @PeterDutton_MP
    · 18m
    Thank you so much to those who have already donated to help those Australians so devastated by the bushfires. Here is the link to the Red Cross Appeal – please donate if you can.
    https://redcross.org.au/campaigns/disaster-relief-and-recovery-new-years-eve

  41. And FWIW the blog’s response times seem to scale linearly with the number of comments being fetched, so 20 comments per page should be about 2.5x as fast as 50 comments per page.

  48. ScoMo reeling off figures at the rate of knots. This is what he was like as Treasurer. All too fast to be absorbed quickly. No summary, no feelings.

  49. @samanthamaiden
    · 4m
    BREAKING: @ScottMorrisonMP announces National Security Committee has agreed won’t wait now for state requests.
    – GG signs call out of Army brigades across Australia

  50. “Move forward” seems to be the buzzword of the day. It was hurrah to here were are “moving into a go forward posture” . Apart from the zzzzz induction I notice he’s starting to gabble .

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