Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

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  1. Scout
    Australia is better than this and should expect better from our elected representatives.

    Are we though? Can we expect better from our elected representatives when we keep rewarding their behaviour?

    I have first-hand experience (including but not limited to at the last federal election) of voters decrying corruption and dishonesty in politics and then saying they plan to vote Liberal. Such wilful delusion is pervasive in this country, aided and abetted by a morally bankrupt and corporatised media.

  2. One assumes that the same people who excoriated the flood levy will now find perfectly good reasons to extol a fire levy.
    And a drought levy.
    And a coral levy.
    And a fish levy.

  5. ‘poroti says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:10 am

    Boerwar

    Australia would be especially good at working up hydrophobic soil. The plants are extra good at producing wax substances and of course oil. Great for preventing water loss and “waterproofing’ soil.’

    Ah. Good points.

  7. citizen @ #6219 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:33 am

    It’s probably inadvertent but the placing of these two headlines adjacent on the Oz website immediately labels Henderson as an imbecile. If “more than 200,000 people are trapped in isolated areas” isn’t an “unprecedented disaster” then it’s hard to know what is.

    The Australian’s circulation figures?

  9. ‘guytaur says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:14 am

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-04/north-rosedale-bushfire-guts-home-climate-change-sign-survives/11839642‘

    Irony-free, I assume. But… how dopey is that?

    That vehicle cost at least 20 tons of CO2 emissions to construct, more tons to transport it the thousands of km from where it was built to where it is being used, more tons to drive around, and more tons to dispose of it.

    When are Australian consumers going to take some personal responsibility for their consumption behaviours?

  10. Steve777

    FDOTM asks a question. It has been amazing to see Scrott unable to perform something so easy.
    .
    “Seriously how hard is it to pretend you care, to look you are doing something,ANYTHING!?”

  12. So, will we still be paying a bushfire levy at the time of the next election.

    I can’t recall, was the LNP against the flood levy we had for awhile?

  15. Malcolm Farr
    @farrm51
    ·
    16m
    This looks like “governments tripping over each other”, which Scotty swore he would not allow happen. Of course that pledge came when he was trying to justify inaction & now he is action man.
    ***

    Sharri Markson
    @SharriMarkson
    · 1h
    Exclusive: Scott Morrison is planning to deploy a naval vessel in NSW as a contingency for emergency evacuations despite Gladys Berejiklian repeatedly knocking back the offer. There are accusations from the Feds that NSW Govt has underplayed the lack of fuel and power supplies.

  19. lizzie @ #6263 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:22 am

    Exclusive: Scott Morrison is planning to deploy a naval vessel in NSW as a contingency for emergency evacuations despite Gladys Berejiklian repeatedly knocking back the offer. There are accusations from the Feds that NSW Govt has underplayed the lack of fuel and power supplies.

    He’s evacuating David Elliot.

  20. We have witnessed recurring coral bleaching events in the GBR and elsewhere, the destruction of millions of fish in the MD system, the obliteration of marine flora and fauna, a decades-long decline in rainfall in SW Australia, record hot days and hot nights, endemic drought in NSW and QLD, the spread of hypoxia and anoxia in the oceans…and yet the LNP plurality has held together up until now. Maybe the fires will change this. Maybe not.

    For mine, unless and until those who want a change from the LNP are able to stop baiting each other and squabbling, nothing will change for long or even at all.

    It’s all very well to complain about Morrison’s leadership failures. We need much better leadership on the centre-left too.

    There are no signs we’re going to get it as yet.

  21. Victoria

    In fact the rhetoric coming from Murdoch’s media is destroying its credibility big time

    Its going down with the LNP.

    @Vic_Rollison tweets

    Australia is not just reckoning with climate change’s catastrophic effects with #AustraliaBurns, we’re also watching real time the way propaganda wars are lit by Lib Nat fire bugs, spread by vested interests in news media, accepted by unhinged right wingers, adding fuel to fire.

  22. nath

    The main problem with permaculture hydrology calculations is that they tend to omit systemic losses to surface water drainage into rivers.

    In other words, they can run the rivers dry because they succeed in holding the water where it falls and or facilitating groundwater recharge. There is an incidental additional loss from surface water drainage because one of the inevitable outcomes of permaculture is increased evapotranspiration. It is basically a more complicated system of damming the water than simply damming the water and distributing the water for irrigation through pipes and channels.

    A few trial plots here and there don’t much matter.

    But do that permaculture over hundreds of thousands of hectares in the rangelands and the rivers will stop running altogether.

    I forgot to add that one of the potential impacts of permaculture is that, if it does not actually stop water flows, it can modulate them. In other words permaculture can hold water and release it slowly over time into surface streams. One of the potential impacts is that fish species that depend on floods for spawning may find that breeding opportunities are reduced if system-wide permaculture is adopted.
    Main messages: in nature the kneebone is connected to the thighbone and there is no such thing as a free lunch.

  23. The interview Tony Abbott did with Israeli Public Radio proves that he was lying about his belief in Climate Change all along:

    The Israeli public broadcaster has come under fire from angry listeners after broadcasting an interview with Tony Abbott in which he said the world was “in the grip of a climate cult”.

    During the interview, recorded on 15 December while his home state of New South Wales was fighting terrifying bushfires, Abbott denied that carbon dioxide was driving global warming. The interview was broadcast on New Year’s Eve in a special show reviewing key international issues of the decade.

    Abbott said: “While we still seem to be in the grip of a climate cult, the climate cult is going to produce policy outcomes that will cause people to wake up to themselves.”

    After claiming, incorrectly, that a focus on emissions reduction in Australia had caused blackouts and rising power prices, Abbott said: “Sooner or later, in the end, people get hit over the head by reality.”

    The host of the show, Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation foreign editor Eran Mor-Cicurel, interjected part-way through the interview, pointing out Australia had been hit by fires and disasters “happening again and again”.

    Mor-Cicurel asked Abbott if he was “denying that fact we are in the process of global warming and global change”.

    Abbott responded that while there was “no doubt that climate has changed”, previous warming events had happened before the industrial revolution.

    Abbott’s points are contradicted by every major science academy in the world, as well as the expertise of government science agencies in his own country.

    His anti-science views on climate change are well known in Australia and have been corrected many times by leading climate scientists but Mor-Cicurel was not aware of his views before the interview.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/03/tony-abbott-former-australian-pm-tells-israeli-radio-the-world-is-in-the-grip-of-a-climate-cult

    The bastard was lying through his teeth the whole time he was in parliament. From the days of the Howard government, when Howard proposed an ETS to save his political skin, and right the way through until the voters of Warringah turfed him out.

  24. All the Murdoch hacks just spend each night praying for Rupert’s health. As soon as he is gone that conglomerate will be broken up, sliced and diced, and the new regime won’t have the need for hundreds of Australian hacks across the platforms. The Australian in particularly is finished the day Rupert carks it.

  26. People are noticing Morrison’s character. On that, I remember when Morrison tried a different look (the glasses) after becoming PM. He switched back fairly quickly. At his outing to Cobargo he dressed a bit “daggy” and dragged his wife with him, who was also dressed down. It didn’t go so well. Now I notice he’s in a white shirt and tie (Tingle article). It’s as if he’s looking for something that works, homing in on a solution to the bad PR. I wonder what he’ll settle on. Daggy dad won’t work.

    There’s no authenticity in the man. But there is a silver lining. He is testing the Australian character. We’ll know it when he finds it.

  27. Citizen @11:10.
    ”How good is Kirribilli House?”

    It will probably get “Sydney’s” forecast of 35°, which tells you what it’s like by the Harbour. However, suburbs West of Olympic Park are forecast to reach 45° and most places away from the ocean and the Harbour will reach 40°.

  29. Queen Victoria
    @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    1m
    Australia is not just reckoning with climate change’s catastrophic effects with #AustraliaBurns, we’re also watching real time the way propaganda wars are lit by Lib Nat fire bugs, spread by vested interests in news media, accepted by unhinged right wingers, adding fuel to fire.

  30. Boerwar says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:25 am

    nath

    The main problem with permaculture hydrology calculations is that they tend to omit systemic losses to surface water drainage into rivers.

    In other words, they can run the rivers dry because they succeed in holding the water where it falls and or facilitating groundwater recharge. There is an incidental additional loss from surface water drainage because one of the inevitable outcomes of permaculture is increased evapotranspiration. It is basically a more complicated system of damming the water than simply damming the water and distributing the water for irrigation through pipes and channels.

    A few trial plots here and there don’t much matter.

    But do that permaculture over hundreds of thousands of hectares in the rangelands and the rivers will stop running altogether.
    ______________________
    I understood that permaculture was not about stopping the water but just slowing it down before it gets into the surface water systems, stopping erosion from fast moving water and allowing seepage into the groundwater, which eventually creates surface water flows through springs and outflows. Check out this guy in Texas, quite a dramatic change in 50 years:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSPkcpGmflE

  31. Jesus H. Christ on a bicycle! I wish bloody Scooty Scott from Marketing would take his hands out of his pockets when he’s having a photo ooportunity moment. All it does is make me think he’s playing with himself.

  35. Casey Treloar@CaseyTreloar
    15m15 minutes ago
    BREAKING NEWS: the Kangaroo Island bushfire has claimed two lives #KIFires #7NEWS

    🙁

  36. I feel a surplus-saving “temporary” (normal sort of) fire levy coming on.

    Sorry BK, but that goes against the Spirit Of Mateship.

    Don’t you remember when Gillard tried that kind of socialist nonsense?

    The billions required will come from sausage sizzles, cake-a-thons, meat tray raffles and schooner glasses filled with gold coins at the end of the bar.

    This is how a nation comes together, a nation that now, more than ever, just needs government to get out of the way.

    Unless you are a farmer on untenable land, an irrigator drinking rivers dry, an apartment developer, or a Coalition politician who spends most of his time in government-subsidized accommodation, being driven around in Commonwealth cars, flying in VIP planes, bonking their Federally-salaried secretaries, or writing reports that no-one can either read or produce upon request, while lamenting that there are too many bludgers, hippies and Muslim breeders about with overweening senses of entitlement.

    Tsk, tsk BK.

  37. Re C@t @11:27.
    You’re right, that’s Admiralty House. Kirribilli House is nearby on a Harbour frontage. Both are more or less opposite the Opera House.

  38. Stephen Mayne
    @MayneReport
    · 12h
    Sky News is running ads tonight of the climate denialist Andrew Bolt gloating that the Murdochs let him say whatever he likes with no filters. He should be sacked.

    He doesn’t need filters. He’s on the wrong side of truth already.

  39. Kronomex

    Jesus H. Christ on a bicycle! I wish bloody Scooty Scott from Marketing would take his hands out of his pockets when he’s having a photo ooportunity moment.

    After Cobargo he’s been advised to keep his hands ‘locked up’ .

  40. “nathsays:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:26 am
    All the Murdoch hacks just spend each night praying for Rupert’s health”

    I thought Rupert’s progeny were even further on the RWNJ spectrum than he was?

  41. Late Riser

    There will always be those who believe whatever bullshit is being spun.

    There is actually a conspiracy theory going around on social media, that the fires have been strategically lit in the areas which is the direct planned path of high speed rail.
    You cant make this shit up

  45. @nath….it seems the owners of Ch7 & Ch9 are getting ready to step up to the plate for the conservatives. Ch9 even prepared to hold Lib fundraisers at the station in Sydney.

  46. Kronomex

    As a practising female (!), I do not automatically connect hands in pockets with the same thing that males do. However, he may need to hang on to his trousers because some of them fit so badly that any moment I expect a flash of plumber’s crack.

  47. lizzie @ #6266 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:22 am

    Malcolm Farr
    @farrm51
    ·
    16m
    This looks like “governments tripping over each other”, which Scotty swore he would not allow happen. Of course that pledge came when he was trying to justify inaction & now he is action man.
    ***

    Sharri Markson
    @SharriMarkson
    · 1h
    Exclusive: Scott Morrison is planning to deploy a naval vessel in NSW as a contingency for emergency evacuations despite Gladys Berejiklian repeatedly knocking back the offer. There are accusations from the Feds that NSW Govt has underplayed the lack of fuel and power supplies.

    All Govts, to varying degrees, are to blame for this catastrophe.

    How many CHOGM’s have passed with federal and state reps failing to properly respond to forecasts from the fire experts ?

  49. Blobbit @ #6290 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:34 am

    “nathsays:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:26 am
    All the Murdoch hacks just spend each night praying for Rupert’s health”

    I thought Rupert’s progeny were even further on the RWNJ spectrum than he was?

    Of the boys, one is…Lachlan and the other is not…James. Which is why Rupert bequeathed the running of his Fox News empire to Lachlan.

  50. There is actually a conspiracy theory going around on social media, that the fires have been strategically lit in the areas which is the direct planned path of high speed rail.

    I’ve also seen people claiming that media attention is all payback to Scotty because they hate him. Australians have lost their homes and their lives, and people reckon the media reporting that is a Get Scotty beat up?

    We might have unprecedented access to information these days, but that sure isn’t making us smarter!

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