Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
Blobbit says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:34 am
“nathsays:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:26 am
All the Murdoch hacks just spend each night praying for Rupert’s health”
I thought Rupert’s progeny were even further on the RWNJ spectrum than he was?
_______________
Are all the other investors really going to let the progeny take over? I wouldn’t think so. Of course they will try to take control. I expect some epic battle.
Fess
I would argue that many people have become more stupid. Sigh……
Re. “arsonists” being to blame for all the fires.
My RFS contacts tell me (when they have a minute to spare), that out of the over 40 fires within the Mid Coast district since September, only one is suspected of being deliberately lit, and that was kids playing with matches who didn’t realise what a dangerous thing they were doing.
Man-made causes are slightly more – up to 30% of the total, from things like hot engine manifolds igniting dry paddock grass underneath, electrical grid malfunctions (many), unauthorised burn-offs (1), compost heap ignition (just one), motor vehicle accidents (3), and careless use of power tools (several).
In summary: it hasn’t been exactly the wholesale outbreak of arson that right-wingers and conspiracy theorists are trying to blame the fires on.
We are up to 40.5 degrees on the Central Coast. And it’s not even midday yet.
#BatshitCrazyWeatheronPB
lizzie @ #6299 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:37 am
Being inappropriately handsy was wot got him in to trouble at Cobargo. He’s been told to keep his hands somewhere safe.
BB
Vic emergency chief said that the dry lightning in Victoria has caused the fires in East Gippsland. Concern more new fires will start same way today.
Confessions @ #6300 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:41 am
Hear! Bloody hear!
In fact it’s made people dumber because they have access to well-crafted lies told by practised liars.
C@t
Take care…..
Check out this rehydration project BW:
https://themullooninstitute.org/blog/2018/9/19/the-mulloon-institute-featured-on-australian-story-b6b7h-sab3f
By my (iffy) calculations, fires north of Eucumbene are now within 20-30 km of the ACT border and around 40-50km from Canberra’s nearest suburbs. That is around half the distances involved with the Batlow fires to Canberra this time yesterday.
NW winds would generally be pushing those fires in a path running parallel to the ACT border. (The southern areas of the ACT are mainly conservation reserve forests).
If the winds turn westerly and south westerly later in the day those fires may yet cause trouble.
nath
I’ve been to Mulloon.
Just imagine.
You’re exhausted from fighting fires, or you’ve just lost all your possessions, and you are asked to fill out a form so that you can speak to the PM if he turns your way.
What a bloody wimp he is, and what fools his minders are.
You gotta ask what happened to the ability of people to use critical thinking?
@jagungal1 tweets
So in over ten years of upgrading bushfire infrastructure I have never been stopped from implementing life safety.
These people telling you about the all-powerful greenies are generally two things:
– climate denying bullshit artists
– after something else (land clearing etc) https://twitter.com/jagungal1/status/1212945884767379457/photo/1
Victoria @ #6309 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:45 am
Thanks, Vic. 🙂
We’ve cleaned out the gutters. Again. Swept as many dry leaves away from around the house. Washed all the residual dry matter down the gutters and watered the roof. The hose is long, the tanks are full and the eyes are peeled. 🙂
The boys at the Marlo pub might have to put in a serious drinking effort today.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:46 am
nath
I’ve been to Mulloon.
_______________
What did you think? It seemed by holding the water back in leaky weirs they managed to rehydrate the valley and increase the moisture in the soil which gave the creek plenty of water even in drought. That’s what the videos say anyway.
Why would anyone be forced to shake hands with a prick, the hands of which were juggling his balls?
If the story about filling out a form to see Morrison is not satire:
* Morrison has defaulted to command and control.
* I want to know what’s on the form.
lizzie:
This has to be satire.
https://doublebaytoday.com/pms-media-team-now-pre-screening-bushfire-victims-to-ensure-they-agree-to-shake-his-hand/
Just check out the ‘stories’ from that site.
https://doublebaytoday.com/
nath
There are trade offs.
I don’t mind a good, scientifically-based, calculation of the trade-offs and using that to add a values-based layer of decision making.
That would, IMO, be a good way to go about it.
My general point is that the permaculturists have a tendency to act if the trade-offs end at their boundaries.
Further, IMO, because most permaculture trials happen on very limited parcels of land, there is a tendency not to think on massive landscape scales.
My view, FWIW, is that you could permanently stop the Murray from reaching the sea if you applied permaculture principles right across the MDB.
#WeatheronPB. Sydney Olympic Park, near the geographic centre of the Sydney Metro area: 42.4°.
Thanks Confessions. I over-reacted.
It’s not too bad yet in my neck of woods
Media
Likes
Dan Andrews’s Tweets
Dan Andrews
@DanielAndrewsMP
·
1m
Air quality across much of the state is currently very poor.
Smoke is visible across Victoria, and it could be dangerous to your health.
Try to avoid being outside if possible, close windows and doors, and make sure your asthma plan is up to date and you have enough medication.
Dr Kirstin Ferguson
@kirstinferguson
· 3h
Thinking of all the incredibly brave firefighters today. This photo was taken yesterday by a friend of mine in the @NSWRFS who didn’t realise until the end of his shift that the soles of his boots had melted away due to the heat underfoot. #NSWfires #AustraliaBurning #Australia
Double Bay Today is a satire website, like Betoota or Chaser.
Though, to be fair, it’s getting to the point where it’s difficult to spot the difference sometimes.
The meme regarding greenies preventing hazard reduction is an egregious lie that needs to be refuted in the strongest possible terms whenever it pops up.
Goll @ #6317 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:49 am
There are various conflicting comments impinging on this matter.
A. Mr. Whatsisname is sitting about sucking is thumb.
B. Mr. Whatsisname is sitting about with his thumb up his butt.*
Whatever the case, having no clear idea regarding either the hand or the thumb – prolly best to back away slowly and prepare to make a break for it.
*The meaning is pretty graphically clear that you can’t be doing anything constructive with your whole hand if your thumb’s up your arse.The thumb being the opposing digit may have something to do with its choice in the phrase.Other than that,I don’t know when it first appeared or why.
Fess
Whether that’s satire or not, I think it hits the right spot. 😆
Greensborough Growler @ #6304 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:44 am
Why can’t he just keep them in the till, like any other Liberal?
Boerwar says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 11:55 am
My view, FWIW, is that you could permanently stop the Murray from reaching the sea if you applied permaculture principles right across the MDB.
_______________________
well that wouldn’t be good. But neither is the billions of tonnes of soil that has been washed down it over the past century.
It’s the fault of the eucalypts that they’re burning. Nothing to do with human activity!
If anyone wants to support Zoey who told SmoKo she wouldn’t shake his hand creating a defining moment of his political career disaster
https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-zoey-and-michael-from-cobargo
Stefanovic gives Morrison a mild serve, in a News Corp owned site:
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/morning-shows/karl-stefanovic-jokes-about-first-day-nerves-on-return-to-today/news-story/2961c6ebfb09da8da48b510cda179895
nath
My estimate it that our wombats, by undermining our river banks, have added around 50-100 tonnes of the most fertile topsoil to those billions of tonnes.
Apart from that, you may be constructing a false binary between permaculture and what has been done to date.
One of the things I would be a bit careful about in relation to permaculture is that there is a bit of messianic fervor among some (but far from all) its proponents.
Last night I posted a March 2019 pre-election Labor Party news release outlining Labor’s detailed program to upgrade bushfire protection.
There were also the comments made by Greg Mullins who said he and other fire experts months ago had warned the government of how the bushfire season could get out of control and were ignored.
Mullins outlined the Morrison government’s rejection of suggestions to increase funding, replace ad-hoc use of the armed forces in bushfire emergencies or to have a dedicated fleet of aircraft and helicopters. Not to mention the government’s rejection of either a meeting with fire commissioners or an emergency session of COAG.
Surely it isn’t beyond the wit of the Labor Party to hammer home with the electorate this contrast, even at this time of crisis. “Now” is the time to discuss these things. Morrison has demonstrated that he has feet of clay that are crumbling.
The climate change battle has probably now been won in the minds of all but welded-on Coalition supporters. Voters, however, should be reminded that the Coalition have fiddled while the country burned after rejecting sensible measures to keep Australians safe, from fire experts as well as Labor.
Or are those Australians huddled on the beaches more interested in franking credits, negative gearing and a surplus?
Confessions @ #6324 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:50 am
Yes, it is a satirical site but like The Onion in the US, very, very good at masking it.
Frankly, I don’t mind if someone is out there trying to counteract the Greenie Arsonists are to blame, disinformation from the Right.
Boerwar,
I find your anti Native Fauna comments disgusting. They have a right to live in this country just as much as you do.
Steve777 @ #6326 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 11:59 am
By the ALP.
‘lizzie says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 12:03 pm
Lenore Taylor
@lenoretaylor
·
16m
The sick irony of the current situation is that anti-environmentalism is getting more extreme precisely at the moment when the prospects for decisive action should be better than ever. – Apocalypse Becomes the New Normal
It’s the fault of the eucalypts that they’re burning. Nothing to do with human activity!’
Probably not entirely tenable, IMO. If we take eucalypts as being advantaged by fire then the drift of the continent northwards into hotter and drier climes has been the primary driver. Use of fire by Indigenous nations has also been critical for the past 60,000 years or so.
Suppression of Indigenous burning along the Great Dividing range’s forests has, I assume, led to massive pent up potential once we have ignition.
Put together then, continental drift, human ignition and accelerated global warming means that eucalypts are partially doing their own thing and partially hitching an evolutionary ride off human activity.
‘This is how a nation comes together, a nation that now, more than ever, just needs government to get out of the way.
Unless you are a farmer on untenable land, an irrigator drinking rivers dry, an apartment developer, or a Coalition politician who spends most of his time in government-subsidized accommodation, being driven around in Commonwealth cars, flying in VIP planes, bonking their Federally-salaried secretaries, or writing reports that no-one can either read or produce upon request, while lamenting that there are too many bludgers, hippies and Muslim breeders about with overweening senses of entitlement.’
Tsk, tsk BK.
Very good post Bushfire Bill
C@tmomma @ #6340 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 12:12 pm
Interesting how the re-introduction of beavers in parts of England is positively affecting the community and the environment.
‘C@tmomma says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 12:12 pm
Boerwar,
I find your anti Native Fauna comments disgusting. They have a right to live in this country just as much as you do.’
I am pro native fauna. I support in real life far more of it than anyone I know on Bludger (including you, for example), except for maybe P1.
But I am not gob stoppingly, stupidly, emotionally blind about the adverse consequences of human behaviours in relation to native fauna ‘management’.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 12:06 pm
One of the things I would be a bit careful about in relation to permaculture is that there is a bit of messianic fervor among some (but far from all) its proponents.
_______________
Yes I have noticed some of that. Many of them hope to use it as an alternative to industrial scale agriculture. I’m not convinced that would be possible/or too expensive. I’m more interested in seeing how it can be integrated into industrial agriculture.
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/wild-beaver-colony-river-otter-devon-environment-defra-a9267331.html
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 12:15 pm
Interesting how the re-introduction of beavers in parts of England is positively affecting the community and the environment.
_____________
I love wombats but declare a strong preference for beavers. 🙂
‘Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 12:15 pm
C@tmomma @ #6340 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 12:12 pm
Boerwar,
I find your anti Native Fauna comments disgusting. They have a right to live in this country just as much as you do.
Interesting how the re-introduction of beavers in parts of England is positively affecting the community and the environment.’
Excellent stuff, IMO.
I look forward to Australian Inner Urbs Greens running wombats in their backyards and British Inner Urbs Greens floating beaver in their bathtubs.
In other fires.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-04/air-strike-hits-two-cars-north-of-baghdad-iraqi-officials-says/11840590
Last night I heard someone saying the cold war had become a warm one.
blog watch
Questions for Scott Morrison after deserting a nation in need of leadership
The PM went on holiday for a few days. It didn’t need to look like a political crime scene. But as usual, the cover-up made everything ten times worse.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/questions-for-scott-morrison-after-deserting-a-nation-in-need-of-leadership,13455
New Year’s Eve in an incinerated NSW South Coast apocalypse
We were lucky. Pure and simple. A confluence of events allowed us to avoid the otherworldly fire front shown above by approximately 50 minutes.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/new-years-eve-in-an-incinerated-nsw-south-coast-apocalypse,13451
Slow burn
At the time of writing, at least fourteen people have been killed by this season’s bushfires. And with most of January and all of February still to come, the number is sure to rise. But these dramatic deaths are far outweighed by the hundreds, perhaps thousands, of deaths that will ultimately result from the toxic smoke blanketing Australian cities.
https://johnquiggin.com/
Scapegoats for the real killers of Jamal Khashoggi
They convicted the wrong people.
Pelosi can commit political suicide or help heal partisan rift
The polls would indicate otherwise.
https://www.onlineopinion.com.au
Guts plus cool professionalism from these NSW firefighters
Laura Tingle gets a middle management management smack down with a wet lettuce leaf
Personally I think it is about time afew trolls where told to f*** off.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews comes out in support of the PM again
Albo has a therapeutic day at the cricket. Talks his way on to TV. Fire emergency or PR assault.
Good to have a US President who offs Iran’s leaders in airstrikes instead of sending them pallets of $USD cash
All available at.
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/
Fire policy shift: Government says “hazard reduction” to stop fires. Labor says “Carbon market”
Policy is not changing: the Labor party says we should fight fires with a carbon market (tax)
http://joannenova.com.au/
ALLAN KESSING. Mendaciously Manufacturing Consent
However, in three of the Anglophone countries there is a commonality which made the election of Trump, Morrison & Johnson inevitable – the utterly dishonest coverage of politics, economics and environmental deterioration by the Murdoch media.
https://johnmenadue.com/allan-kessing-mendaciously-manufacturing-consent/#more-34433
LAURIE PATTON. My New Year’s wish – more collaborative technology policy development
Ironically, it’s the Internet itself that has largely solved the piracy problem by facilitating the creation of streaming services. The vast majority of people guilty of ‘unlawful downloading’ did so because the content they wanted simply wasn’t available. Communications department research identified pricing and availability as key factors for people consuming pirated content. Even the then communications minister Malcolm Turnbull was among those arguing that the best thing rights holders could do is make their product easily available and less expensive.
https://johnmenadue.com/laurie-patton-my-new-years-wish-more-collaborative-technology-policy-development/
EVAN JONES.- Fires. Are they Australia’s Potemkin Moment?
Lordon explains :‘How to trigger a mutiny? As with all uprisings, by the abuse of power. On the Battleship Potemkin, the arrogance of the officers, their aristocratic contempt and their brutality still don’t succeed to set off the sailors. It’s the meat that does the trick. Or rather the maggots. The meat is so infested that it can take to the railings by itself.
https://johnmenadue.com/evan-jones-fires-australias-potemkin-moment/#more-34582
GEORGE GRUNDY.- The Slow Death of Retail in Perth
Amazon Australia’s Craig Fuller spoke of ‘investment and development’ bringing benefit to the local economy as the company expands its reach across the Nullarbor, but evidence elsewhere suggests a very different future.
https://johnmenadue.com/george-grundy-the-slow-death-of-retail-in-perth/
NOURIEL ROUBINI.-Trump will make China great again.(Project Syndicate 23.12.2019)
Despite the latest Sino-American “skinny deal” to ease tensions over trade, technology, and other issues, it is now clear that the world’s two largest economies have entered a new era of sustained competition. How the relationship will evolve depends greatly on America’s political leadership – which does not bode well.
https://johnmenadue.com/nouriel-roubini-trump-will-make-china-great-again-project-syndicate-23-12-2019/#more-34474
ROBERT MICKENS. Pope Francis begins the most important year of his pontificate.
Francis has already hinted that he will endorse priestly ordination of the viri probati (married men of proven virtue), specifically those who are already permanent deacons and a reformed structure and role of the Church’s central offices at the Vatican, known as the Roman Curia.
https://johnmenadue.com/robert-mickens-pope-francis-begins-the-most-important-year-of-his-pontificate/