Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
poroti @ #6201 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 6:54 am
When I saw that post last night suddenly Morrison’s carrying that one plastic grocery bag to wherever it was he went yesterday made sense. At the time I thought it was strange that he’d go with a grocery bag of things, but it was because he and his team had stuffed up so royally in Cobargo he was keen to ensure the same mistake wasn’t made. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 6 vehicles yesterday were carrying other supplies like water and so on for volunteers.
For what its worth
the
Riot trucks are a failure.
Not a single riot noticed anywhere.
KayJay @ #6184 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 9:33 am
The Gran Sasso raid
” rel=”nofollow”> ended so well …
As an aside – if Elliot, the ex-boss of the NSW AHA (aka the New Rum Corps) and, thus, one of Gladys’s puppetmasters, were still in the army, what would have been the penalty for desertion?
KayJay @ #6201 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:03 am
Riot trucks are a success.
Not a single riot noticed anywhere.
It is to early in the election cycle to think that Morrison is gone. Yes his confidence from the election win has given him political capital and unfounded confidence. His actions over the last month are a true reflection of what sort of leader he is ie all about him nothing more.
Once this crisis is over I expect a concocted crisis that will demonise some part of our community for political gain for the Coalition.
Australia is better than this and should expect better from our elected representatives.
Paula Matthewson, hardly a Greens lover – Five lessons from the year Bill Shorten still couldn’t win an election
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2020/01/03/barnaby-joyce-politics-2019/
Why America and Iran hate each other
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-04/history-why-america-and-iran-hate-each-other/11589584
FDOTM
The pain and terror of these bushfires cannot be held in a single human heart
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/04/the-pain-and-terror-of-these-bushfires-cannot-be-held-in-a-single-human-heart
Greensborough Growler (AnonBlock)
Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:05 am
Comment #6203
Have it your way if you must. You may be thinking of anti-riot trucks.
Enough problems, geographic, environmental, social, scientific or financial have streaked across ths mindset of millions of Australians this year to provide a catalyst for an out and out good old fashioned revolution to occur.
But in the land of misadventure and destruction where the biggest problem for many is to decide whether to holiday in Greece or just stay home because the South Coast of NSW or the East Coast of Victoria are too expensive to even consider. Many stay at home with little choice.
Or for New Years Eve perhaps, maneuvering the yacht beneath Sydney harbour versus going all out on a packet of sparklers for the back step of the current rented accommodation, the outcome of these horrific fires and the subsequent destruction will be interesting.
Its obvious to many that our politicians don’t do empathy or service, but invest their time in getting themselves elected to enable access to the boutiful array of rorting and personal endowment that have become the hallmark of political office.
The inevitable arguments for and against back burning will be flung across the tabloid TV/Newspapers in a not dissimilar manner to the movement of the silver ball in a pinball machine.
Even more inevitable will be the war between the owners of stranded coal assets and all the other dissenting parties whose only motivation will be to outdo other dissenting interests for the spotlight.
Perhaps a continuation of the nation building decision making that politicans proclaim with regularity as they compete to outdo all the other aspirational hopefuls in establishing their individual legacies.
It’s just not worth listing the peculiar types who’ve imposed themselves upon us as great thinkers or even worse as great leaders, to the point where the vast majority of citizens just can’t be bothered caring any more.
Today will evolve as it will, and a thank you from me to those who will just give of themselves to help others.
I look forward to the next set of polling as a telltale as to the direction the people of Australia, either from those suffering or from those watching and how they react to this summer.
This summer is not finished yet.
Someone mentioned earlier that Domain is featuring south coast property for sale. This month’s Australian Gourmet Traveller has an entire section featuring the NSW Saphire Coast as a holiday destination.
Although in fairness to AGT that would’ve been written months ago. Still, it is somewhat depressing reading it after what we’ve seen the past week.
‘C@tmomma says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 9:16 am
Kangaroo Island is on fire. The Koalas. ‘
The Kangaroo Island Koalas are the equivalent of feral animals. They are not native to the Island. They require (wasted) resources to stop some of the worst consequences of their introduction.
Humans are pathetic when it comes to playing at being Mother Nature.
Confessions @ #6189 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 9:38 am
Well, they know what the bookings are months ahead, and it probably helps the property owners’ Negative Gearing losses. 😉
When speaking of gambling in NSW one can never forget those halcyon days when Mr Dick Face was the relevant minister.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Face
(Sorry, his name always brings out the 13 year old boy in me)
One could ask how many empty rentals are available on the Central Coast at this time of year – unless the fires have reduced bookings, it would not be many
Confessions @ #6210 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:18 am
Unfortunate timing, but perhaps not completely wasted. The South Coast may never be quite the same, but it will survive. And – eventually – even thrive. It is one of the most beautiful parts of NSW, with literally hundreds of miles of unspoilt beaches, and national parks that leave most of the rest of NSW in the dust – or perhaps that should be “ash” 🙁
And the best part is that it is still largely unknown by most of those crass Sydneysiders, who tend to drift north, not south. Only the cognoscenti come here 🙂
Well, they know what the bookings are months ahead, and it probably helps the property owners’ Negative Gearing losses.
_________________________________
It probably wouldn’t make a difference. The test for deductibility is that the property is available for rent, not that it is actually rented. I would think, though, that the property owners would agree. Indeed, they would get the possible benefit of the properties being looked after. Bear in mind that this period is peak rental period for property owners in coastal areas.
A couple of months ago one of our friends bought a south coast block from which the previous house had been erased following a fire either last year or the year before.
The block is on a the crest of a steep forested slope facing west/norwest.
They were busy doing building designs, getting permits, etc, etc, to build.
We asked them (some months ago) what they were doing about fire safety.
Apparently the council has upped the building requirements was the answer.
The block has burned again.
It’s interesting that the same tired old hacks like Abetz and Henderson have to be wheeled out to try and deflect attention from the abysmal performance of Morrison and his government. We now have a situation where Morrison’s behaviour is plain for all to see, often courtesy of social media, while those trying to defend him and the LNP are forced to resort to lies and distortions.
It’s probably inadvertent but the placing of these two headlines adjacent on the Oz website immediately labels Henderson as an imbecile. If “more than 200,000 people are trapped in isolated areas” isn’t an “unprecedented disaster” then it’s hard to know what is.
The day begins (for me, anyway).
on anger:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/04/death-of-the-salesman-how-scott-morrisons-pr-nous-deserted-him-in-the-bushfires
The patronising condescending selfish (noun needed) seems baffled that he has to explain this to us.
It “backfired” because reconnecting clearly wasn’t the purpose of the visit, as you can see in his repeated efforts to forcibly promote himself as a man of the people.
on liberal governments in wartime: People are dying. The country burns. It’s not much different.
on the lnp: “How naive were his fellow MPs, to elect him leader?” Good point lizzie. We need more messages like this. Our government’s stupidity runs deeper than Morrison. Who stands with him? Can water theft narratives be added to the discussion? Something.
on global warning(sic): We can be proud of Australia’s sacrifice as a warning to the world. It has noticed.
on Albanese as unofficial PM: Labor’s fault then?
on Morrison’s character: He is a mimic. He learns what works then does that relentlessly. Add the need to be the big daddy and you’ve got him. His problem (and ours) is that he now has reached the top and has no-one to emulate, and he’s stuck in daddy mode.
random thoughts: When the fire forecast replaces the weather forecast, what does that mean?
Gretel makes some releevant points again.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1213240041444536320
‘zoomster says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 8:34 am
BW
A friend of mine did some research into why flash flooding often follows fires. The water resistance of dry soils was a huge factor.’
Ah. Makes sense.
rhwambat
As an aside – if Elliot, the ex-boss of the NSW AHA (aka the New Rum Corps) and, thus, one of Gladys’s puppetmasters, were still in the army, what would have been the penalty for desertion?
—————
I am sorry you have it arse about.
If a Liberal Minister was AWOL, the rest of the Army would be guilty of desertion!
I hope zoomster elected to leave her part of the world today
Martin McKenzie-Murray – 2019: The year that was
In a year when we reckoned with climate catastrophe, hypocritical world leaders and the increasing erosion of our privacy, we also witnessed the resistance of the Hong Kong protesters and the triumph of Ash Barty
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2019/12/21/2019-the-year-that-was/15768468009273
I notice in the video as linked by GG, Morrison has hands in pocket again. Wowee is all I say
Oakeshott Country @ #6217 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:29 am
Trust you to be a misery guts. Well, my friend happens to run a linen business that supplies the linen and makes the beds for the holiday rentals and so I know for a fact that they aren’t all booked out for the duration. And even if it’s ‘only’ one house for one family that’s better than just ignoring the poor people’s plight. But it’s not, as there are houses to rent as well as holiday rentals available.
For that matter, what are YOU doing with YOUR holiday house on the Central Coast?
Yep. It sure comes across that way…….
Some people who put their hands in their pockets are not-so-subtle ball handlers or ball scratchers. In a military context, putting your hands in your pockets may be a dereliction from what you should be doing with them or imply unpreparedness to meet a threat. It promotes a slouching posture…..
Morrison is a homeopath who is, regrettably, currently in charge of the Emergency Department. It’s that bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMGIbOGu8q0
Late Riser:
That article concludes thus:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/04/death-of-the-salesman-how-scott-morrisons-pr-nous-deserted-him-in-the-bushfires
Morrison speaking in the US about his favourite movie being Apollo 13 because it taught him about thinking on your feet during an emergency.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1213242301058670592
“I’m here to step up, not to step down.”
———-
A dill like Elliott couldn’t possibly come up with that on his own. It was straight out of the Government Spin Unit.
The female journalist didn’t ask him about resigning. But that’s the context in which he chose to answer… with a big smirk on his face, as if sharing a private joke with her. We’ll never know where she was from, but I’d be betting News Ltd or 2GB. Berejiklian picked the questioner and cleared the decks for Elliott to answer. It stank of a stage-managed set-up.
They’ve turned the state of NSW into a demolition site with under-funding and de-funding, Sydney-centric bread, fireworks and circuses policies (who actually needs either a NYE cracker night or billion dollar stadiums?), rampant land-clearing, rule by spivs and denialist-driven bullshittery. The fires are just burning-off the rubbish.
And now Elliott admits that what he did – despite being warned, despite people begging him (as well as the obvious need) to stay and do his job, despite the shocking example of Morrison’s humiliation just a day or two before – was “inexcusable”.
Then he asks us to excuse him.
Rule by spivs reigns supreme.
Vic:
Perhaps Scotty from Marketing’s enduring contribution to the country will be the endless footage body language experts can use in training courses of what not to do when managing a crisis 😀
Scott Morrison’s favourite singer Tina Arena is giving him grief over coal mines on Instagram
Fess
It was obvious that Morrison was a charlatan. But even I am surprised with the way he has handled this crises. I expected him to fake it a little better than this.
BB
If our vic state govt emergency services minister had done even a fraction of what the NSW minister has, there would be pitchforks out and the baying of her blood
Newspapers Around The World Are Covering Australia’s “Apocalyptic” Bushfires
Many international newspapers put the same image of a kangaroo bounding past a burning house on their front pages in the first days of 2020.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/ginarushton/australia-bushfires-global-coverage-newspapers
Warrigal @ #6229 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 10:46 am
Thank you!
Morrison speaking in the US about his favourite movie being Apollo 13 because it taught him about thinking on your feet during an emergency.
Whereas in reality it’s about thorough preparation, deep competencies, meticulous work-shopping of contingencies, listening to people with real expertise, and letting them do their job.
Again he demonstrates why he is so unfit for purpose.
Greensborough Growler @ #6221 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 9:38 am
OK. Which one of you is Gretel?
I feel a surplus-saving “temporary” (normal sort of) fire levy coming on.
#1 TOP STORY OF 2019: ‘We’re fed up and we will not obey you’: Rebellion strikes cities across the world
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/1-top-story-of-2019-were-fed-up-and-we-will-not-obey-you-rebellion-strikes-cities-across-the-world,13453
Should the PM be allowed to decide to take Australia to war on their own without Parliament?
Another cartoon from the US:
An angry take on the fires from First Dog:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/04/the-pain-and-terror-of-these-bushfires-cannot-be-held-in-a-single-human-heart
BK says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 10:57 am
I feel a surplus-saving “temporary” (normal sort of) fire levy coming on.
______________
Yes could be. Well spotted.
The Tingle article brought back the parallels between Katrina/Bush and bushfire/Morrison that we briefly discussed on PB a few days ago. One disturbing element of the Katrina disaster was the lawlessness that ensued, some of it brutal, from simple looting to much worse. However this crisis eventually ends for us, the civility and human decency of this country is something to take pride in.
Boerwar
Australia would be especially good at working up hydrophobic soil. The plants are extra good at producing wax substances and of course oil. Great for preventing water loss and “waterproofing’ soil.
Penrith, Liverpool and Richmond forecast to reach 46 today. Canberra will be a balmy 42.
How good is Kirribilli House?