Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
Greensborough Growler @ #6145 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 8:43 am
Didn’t I tell you, the Pubs, Clubs and Gambling Industry owns the NSW Coalition?
Lizzie
NSWRFS confirms what Greg Mullins described in his interview on ABC national
Radio yesterday.
PvO also says Elliott won’t be sacked because Berejiklian doesn’t have the internal authority to do so. This is largely because he damaged her over the abortion law reform debate by publicly attacking her for it, and also because she approved his leave to start with.
‘fess,
2GB are just as bad as The Australian. They are trying all the ways known to man to valourise Morrison and pour vitriol and scorn and heap abuse on abuse on the poor devastated people of Cobargo that had the guts to speak up.
It’s just disgusting.
C@t
It is disgusting. But surely by now, the public can discern for themselves what they have been observing during this crises.
Phil Coorey was one of the holidaying Aussies caught in the conflagration on the South Coast of NSW! 😯
I can just imagine what his first column back will be like! Or it should be.
lizzie
It’s a heck of a fight between between Angus and Porter for the title of parliament’s biggest FIGJAM.
Victoria @ #6155 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 8:58 am
No, I don’t think so, Vic. The people that listen to 2GB, 3AW and watch all the RWNJs on Sky After Dark are, sad to say, brainwashed. They believe what they hear and see there. I have friends like that, sadly. Great people, brainwashed.
Yep, all of them safe to do so from their inner city mansions and waterfront properties in Sydney.
This is what Coorey said on Twitter
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Phillip Coorey
@PhillipCoorey
Just emerged from days of hell on sth coast, cannot believe attacks on ABC, It is the ONLY reliable source of info, everyone is tuned in, its real time broadcasting is saving lives, property and helping us understand our situation re fire threats, roads, petrol, food etc
Here is minister David Elliot, explaining why he had to ‘Chuck a ScoMo’ and go on an overseas holiday in the middle of a crisis.
C@t
I get that. But we are living in real time through a crises. Not a day or two,or even a week.
This has been happening in NSW for a long time now and the emergencies that have occurred on the coastal areas during prime holidays for many, surely is a wake up call.
Victoria:
Patricia Karvelas has also said every year she holidays on the NSW south coast in summer, but this year instead chose to take her kids to Greece.
Fess
Did she do this due to the dry conditions or merely wanting to go overseas for different holiday?
Today’s quiz question.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1212817714265374721
Vic:
Don’t know.
It might be a small thing, but very simple, for Cabinet to make an immediate increase in ABC funding as a gesture of appreciation for their work in the fire crisis.
What’s the betting they won’t?
Fess
No problemo.
Swamprat
Mark Foys on the corner of Elizabeth Street, are part of the law courts, same inference, same front, same irony.
lizzie @ #6169 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 9:10 am
You could put your house on it. If it hasn’t burnt down.
I’m not sure if this is satire or straight reporting!
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/headlines/nation-just-kind-of-accepts-albo-unofficially-taking-over-prime-ministerial-duties/
Andrew Constance has been excellent in his interviews.
poroti @ #6157 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 8:59 am
Scrutineers are checking the votes prior to announcing the
The nominations for 2019 have been so heavy that counting is not expected to be completed prior to Anzac Day.
Watch this space for further news. ☮🤯
Kangaroo Island is on fire. The Koalas. 🙁
[Patricia Karvelas has also said every year she holidays on the NSW south coast in summer, but this year instead chose to take her kids to Greece.]
First world problems
Greensborough Growler @ #6165 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 6:07 am
And in reply to that, this:
Greta is great.
Would you believe that the Fairfax SMH website, today, of all days, has a prominent ‘recommended’ link, to one of its Domain stories, published 2 days ago :
Holiday at home: The best places to buy on the NSW South Coast
https://www.domain.com.au/news/holiday-at-home-the-best-places-to-buy-in-the-nsw-south-coast-919342/?utm_source=smh.com.au&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=link-widget&utm_campaign=plista-smh
I just want to throw something.
Andrew Crisp Victoria’s Emergency Management Commissioner said that these fires were started by nature and it will take nature to completely put them out.
This is a critically important thread from Twitter written by the Head Beekeeper for the Australian Parliament (who knew we had one?) and Environmental Scientist working in Bushfire Protection and Ecology, Cormac Farrell, absolutely exploding into a million pathetic little pieces the Conservative LIE that ‘Greenies’ have prevented Hazard Reduction burns:
Ends.
Goll says:
Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 9:11 am
Swamprat
Mark Foys on the corner of Elizabeth Street, are part of the law courts, same inference, same front, same irony.
———
It was an expression my mother used to say from when Mark Foys was a big department store with a big frontage.
Australian language had wonderful expressions, sadly replaced in this “brave” new world.
The Central Coast Real Estate Agent, Ray White, Terrigal, has thrown open all unoccupied holiday homes on its books to homeless refugees from the fires. For free.
A very heavy smoke smell here in Newcastle.
But in a spirit of reconciliation let us now have a
For
Senator Jim Molan AO DSC
@JimMolan
Cobargo Pub owner David Allen’s view of those who heckled the PM yesterday. He was one of many on the spot asking me to pass his apologies to PM, saying they do not represent Cobargo.
***********************************************
The Colesworths delivery man this morning wondered what Mr.Whatsisname could do anyway (when the call went out to have a daring rescue attempt a la Gran Sasso* raid to remove Mr. Whatisname from whence he was being held in durance vile (WTF is that ❓ ) and return him to his proper place comforting, consoling, educating, managing, planning, praying and that ❗
*The Gran Sasso raid was the rescue of Italian dictator Benito Mussolini by German Fallschirmjäger led by Major Harald Mors
and Waffen-SS commandos in September 1943, during World War II. The airborne operation was personally ordered by Adolf Hitler, planned and executed by Mors, and approved by General Kurt Student.
P.S. Mr. Whatsisname has amply demonstrated what he could do – thenkew veddy muchly youse of little faith.
I think there is a closing bracket missing but I can’t quite figure out where to put it. Mucho apologies.
D&M ,
Thanks for your post on Evangelism which is exactly what I have been aware of since the 70’s , with my siblings in this ‘cult’.
Whenever I have brought this up with friends, I think they feel I am exaggerating , but slowly they are recognising what I meant. “The Family” on Netflix was an eye-opener.
I am further concerned about their influence on Trump, doing Israel’s bidding in attacking Iran.
It is as though they are creating conditions ripe for “The Rapture” .
New Zealanders are crazy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2019/dec/30/what-is-turnardern-and-why-are-new-zealanders-doing-it-video?CMP=share_btn_tw
C@t:
That’s a very generous gesture from a real estate agent. Presumably property owners would need to agree.
Greensborough Growler @ #6145 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 8:43 am
It is more far more likely that David Elliot will sack Gladys Berejilian than the other way around.
NSW is a pit of slime on both sides of politics.
Kay jay
The Gran Sasso is near where my father’s family come from.
In fact my cousin who lives there, sent me some new years day pictures of their outing at Gran Sasso
KayJay
People who only pay half attention to what they call “politics”, listen to shoutback radio (love that term) and have short memories are saying “But what could Scotty do?”
The rest of us understand that this crisis has been building since Liberals took over. No, ScoMo can’t do much right now, but as our so-called leader he has to take blame for the government’s actions, and what he could do is stop pretending to have empathy and try to fake a bit of sincerity.
Fancy turning up to a devastated community with six CommCars without bringing anything that could be of help to them. When he was sprung on that, he bought a little bag of groceries to offer at his next stop.
He thinks he’s sailing above all the “panic”. No effing idea of reality.
Eric Abetz on the ABC was embarassing……blaming Labor for playing politics then when pushed about resourcing being highlighted previously brings out the old chestnut of blaming the Greens for stopping burn offs. Pathetic.
Scary thing is the quiet Australians believe that crap and end up voting accordingly.
*Pleads with the government to continue allowing MPs like Eric Abetz to be the voice of the govt on public broadcasts.
The only “burning for us” Morrison has done recently has involved sunburn in Fiji and Hawaii, and his reputation going up in smoke.
What he really meant was, “You’ll be burning for me.”
WTF? . What was he expecting , an ‘angry mob’ ?
He said “I’ll burn you” . The ‘for’ was inserted in error.
Morrison has done very badly recently and may have permanently damaged himself. Possibly the only way he can be saved is if Labor partisans go over the top in their criticism. 🙂
“Six riot and public order 4wds preceded the Prime Minister. !!!
None of the PMs convoy had any water, food, snacks or anything for the RFS volunteers in Cobargo.”
————
The fucked up arrogant over paid psychopath thinks he’s a Roman Emperor!
I wish his yankee god would Rupture him up now.
lizzie
Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 9:42 am
Comment #6190
The lady who had her hand grabbed and who was then kissed by flugly old asshole – gave Mr. Whasisname really good advice which, if followed (together with the traditional “bring a plate”). could be a recipe for a turnaround in opinion.
Don’tquote me – it went something like this – “If only he had asked me how I was – could have sat down with him and had a cup of tea”.
How fuggen hard is that ❓
The dickheads should ask their individual grannies what to do.
Prolly be told to get as much bottled water as can be had. Energy bars and above all tailored gags to prevent bullshit talk and possibly enable listening..
I can’t (yes I can Muriel) believe the abject stupidity of the collective Mr. Whatsisnames. Mrs. Whatsisname seems to have a grasp of the requirements – as she should – being a nurse.
Nearly forgot – from the military – at which I was really, really hopeless –