Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

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  1. Laura Tingle writes (correctly) that Josh is as much to blame as anyone (such as Angus Taylor) for the lack of action on emissions.

  4. Out of left field I had this thought. Imaging if we had had a FTTH NBN installed underground by now? Not Turnbull’s big green boxes on top of the ground which would easily melt in a fire. It would be so easy to rectify internet connections to all those places that have lost that, at the very least, as well as everything else. Instead I reckon it’s going to take a very long time to put those boxes back.

  7. Confessions

    Too little too late for the Minister.

    Weasel words indeed.

    To quote from a classic 80s film with Arnie: ‘Resign or be prosecuted’

  8. tingle.

    Realistically, if our climate change “debate” was able to be weaned off whatever hallucinogenic drugs it has been on for the past decade, it would wake up in 2020 facing a very different balance of demands.

    _________________________________________

    It’s the journos and their bosses who were the pushers

  10. BK:

    That’s a great effort.

    On what’s expected to be a dreadful day in fire risk areas, I just hope the advance warnings and planning pay off and there are no more lives lost.

  11. Richard Flanagan uses his ablity with words to flay the whole government.
    “As record fires rage, the country’s leaders seem intent on sending it to its doom.”

    The bookstore in the fire-ravaged village of Cobargo, New South Wales, has a new sign outside: “Post-Apocalyptic Fiction has been moved to Current Affairs.”

    And yet, incredibly, the response of Australia’s leaders to this unprecedented national crisis has been not to defend their country but to defend the coal industry, a big donor to both major parties — as if they were willing the country to its doom. While the fires were exploding in mid-December, the leader of the opposition Labor Party went on a tour of coal mines expressing his unequivocal support for coal exports. The prime minister, the conservative Scott Morrison, went on vacation to Hawaii.
    …
    Mr. Morrison made his name as immigration minister, perfecting the cruelty of a policy that interns refugees in hellish Pacific-island camps, and seems indifferent to human suffering. Now his government has taken a disturbing authoritarian turn, cracking down on unions, civic organizations and journalists. Under legislation pending in Tasmania, and expected to be copied across Australia, environmental protesters now face up to 21 years in jail for demonstrating.

    “Australia is a burning nation led by cowards,” wrote the leading broadcaster Hugh Riminton, speaking for many. He might have added “idiots,” after Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack blamed the fires on exploding horse manure.

    Such are those who would open the gates of hell and lead a nation to commit climate suicide.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/opinion/australia-fires-climate-change.html?action=click&module=MoreIn&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&action=click&module=MoreInSection&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&contentCollection=Maureen%20Dowd

  12. “Realistically, if our climate change “debate” was able to be weaned off whatever hallucinogenic drugs it has been on for the past decade, it would wake up in 2020 facing a very different balance of demands.”

    No hallucinogenic drugs, just disinformation, obfuscation and outright lies spread by vested interests, their polictial wing (the Coalition) and the Coalition’s propaganda wing (a.k.a. Newscorp).

  14. David Elliot, Emergency Services Minister:

    “My absence over the past week was inexcusable. I should have put my RFS family (sic) first and foremost given the current conditions …. and now (sic) its time to get back to work,”

    —————
    He’s got more front than Mark Foys!

    Despite it being “inexcusable”, he will be excused because Liberals can always achieve the impossible, when it comes to self interest!!

    Imagine if we had a Liberal Government in wartime.! Luckily we never have.

  15. You see, if you can leave all responsibility for just about everything to the states, you can preserve your precious surplus.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will convene the national security committee of federal cabinet in a phone hook-up on Saturday morning to consider the federal response to the crisis, including “options available to us to source other aircraft” to douse fires.

    But the government has resisted the idea of a national water-bombing fleet for years in an argument over federal and state responsibilities and funding, raising questions over whether a bigger fleet could have slowed this summer’s wildfires.
    …
    The Senate inquiry backed the proposal but the government dismissed it in September 2017, saying it would continue its $15 million annual support for the National Aerial Firefighting Centre without expanding the national capability.

    “The Australian government does not support this recommendation, noting that bushfire responsibility is a matter for each state and territory.”
    …
    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese wrote to Mr Morrison in November asking him to call a meeting of the Council of Australian Governments to discuss national disaster responses including aerial firefighting.

    “I proposed that COAG expand the capacity of Australia’s National Aerial Firefighting Centre and increase its funding,” Mr Albanese said. “Australia faces a national bushfire emergency and it requires a national response.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-rejected-major-air-tanker-expansion-20200103-p53onl.html

  17. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    9h9 hours ago
    The PM’s recollection at his media conference of the “conversation” he had with the lady asking for help before he walked away from her is rather different to what it looked like…bizarre spin given it was all on camera frankly

    Barrie CassidyVerified account@barriecassidy
    7h7 hours ago
    Just go to the videotape. Didn’t happen as he says it did. Pure and simple.

    Tingle is right to make the analogy with GWB’s responses to Hurricane Katrina, with the one exception that unlike Bush, Morrison just doesn’t care.

  19. Good morning bludgers, I hope everyone who lives within 10km of an active fire front has their evacuation bag packed and waiting at the front door ready to go if conditions deteriorate, or perhaps have already moved into a larger centre

    Fortunately the change came through here overnight so we will have top temp of 26 today

  20. C#t:’Out of left field I had this thought. Imaging if we had had a FTTH NBN installed underground by now? Not Turnbull’s big green boxes on top of the ground which would easily melt in a fire. It would be so easy to rectify internet connections to all those places that have lost that, at the very least, as well as everything else. Instead I reckon it’s going to take a very long time to put those boxes back.’

    Good point. Even if the green boxes don’t melt, they require electricity to operate. Another weak point. Fibre can work without electricity.

  22. Steve777 @ #6117 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 4:53 am

    “And look who finally slinked back into the country last night!”

    Well at least he unreservedly apologised.

    I wonder how he’s going to explain it all when he inevitably faces the media live? It’s easy to find the right words when you’re doing it in the comfort of your own home with no audience and in writing when you can draft and re-draft however many times until you feel you have it just right. It’s another thing facing a live media pack with cameras and mics.

  25. Morning bludgers

    Feeling very apprehensive with respect to today’s fire conditions. My strong hope is that it goes better than expected.

  27. Have just finished a raking and done a preliminary all round wetting, just in case. What was interesting was that with so little rain for the past four months the dust in our garden has become anhydrous.

  29. Scoot now telling lies about what the pregnant lady said and what he said she said.

    Three in one: a bounder, a cad and a bastard.

  31. This bushfire crisis is really exposing how unfit Morrison is to be PM, not that we didn’t know that already. You can tell he really doesn’t care about people’s suffering and believes that this is all part of his god’s plan for them or something like that. The way he smirks his way through press conferences is sick.

    It’s also exposing how urgent the need to act on climate change is, not that we didn’t know that already. I note that Albanese seems to have quietly ended the Queensland coal tour he was on last month. A wise move.

    Honestly, Australia is so fucked if we don’t start addressing this right now. We already are! Half the country is on fire! If it’s like this already, what’s it going to be like in 10-20 years time? How about 50 years? The legacy of the right will be to leave a charred landscape behind for their children and grandchildren. They don’t give a toss about Australia, all they care about is doing the bidding of the elites and putting profit before the planet.

  32. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol. Good news with the dinner.

    I expect that you’ll have heavy requirement for “ouches” over the coming months.

    This item from the BK Files ——-

    According to Jennifer Duke the ABC’s extensive coverage of bushfires ravaging the country threatens to push the taxpayer-funded news organisation into more budget strife with emergency broadcasting events on track to double in 2020.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/abc-under-growing-cost-pressure-as-bushfire-emergency-broadcasts-surge-20200103-p53ohp.html

    —–reminded me of the continuing kicking the ABC get from “The Australian.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/auntys-radio-rules-the-waves-but-abc-tv-is-listing-badly/news-story/a0d3ecd28922d461b984cb7ccfe073cc

    Veteran sports presenter Jim Maxwell spoke for many when he took a swipe over its diminished TV sports coverage. Maxwell said sports coverage on ABC TV barely existed and that what did make it to air was “shown up” by SBS. He asked if anyone cared about ABC sports cover.

    The same could be asked of politics, business, finance and crime. In an age when commercial television news and current affairs are just about unwatchable, the runway ought to be open to the ABC to excel.

    ABC gets a thorough kicking and the article finishes up with,

    Thank Zeus that’s done with I’ve just about run out of bullshit and the boss said not to mention the continual cuts to ABC funding.

    While Radio National may be delivering the goods (despite its glitches, faults and repeats), when it comes to ABC Television, many of us are switching over or ­switching off.

  33. And Gerard Henderson has a piece in The Australian today saying that the fires aren’t that bad.
    😯

    Morrison has gotten Murdoch to wheel out the big guns. 🙄

  34. The 2019 Fact Check Golden Zombie award — for a “debunked claim which refuses to die” — goes to Energy Minister Angus Taylor for repeating his misleading assertion, from April, that the Coalition inherited from Labor a 755 million tonne greenhouse gas “emissions deficit” needed to reach Australia’s second Kyoto target, and, through the Government’s “hard work”, turned this around by 1.1 billion tonnes.

    As Fact Check has pointed out — frequently — the so-called “emissions deficit” referred to by the Coalition was taken from an October 2012 report, and merely represented a forecast of the greenhouse gas emission reductions needed to hit Australia’s 2020 target at that time.

    Soon after the Coalition came to office, in a report released in December 2013 which superseded the 2012 report, it became apparent that emissions under Labor’s carbon tax had been lower than expected.

    Government officials also for the first time factored in a significant “carryover” from the overachievement of the first Kyoto target, covering the period 2008 to 2012.

    Since then, emissions have been lower than anticipated as a result of high power prices, the states’ adoption of renewable energy and the closure of coal-fired power stations, including Victoria’s Hazelwood plant — all of which had little to do with “hard work” by the Coalition.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-19/fact-check-year-ender-2019-angus-taylor-golden-zombie/11802536?section=politics

  36. Hear hear!

    Dan Andrews’s Tweets
    Dan Andrews
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    ·
    29m
    Emergency updates from
    @abcnews
    radio and local media have already saved thousands of lives.

    And they’ll save thousands more before this crisis is over.

    Thanks to all our emergency broadcasters out there for their commitment, professionalism and hard work.

  38. From the Wall Street Journal

    “The problem is our fire seasons are getting longer and longer,” said Ken Pimlott, who retired as the director of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection in 2018. “We’re sort of competing, now, for the same resources on the edge of our fire season.”

    The U.S. Forest Service plans to source all of its large air tankers from private contractors through 2022, according to a strategy paper published in 2018, a shift from previous years when it attempted to use repurposed search-and-rescue planes from the Coast Guard. This program was plagued by costly delays in converting the aircraft and was only intended as a bridge until private industry could meet demand.
    Only a handful of contract companies operate large air tankers world-wide.

    In the U.S., the forest service has contracts with 10 Tanker Air Carrier, Aero Flite, Aero Air, Neptune Aviation and Coulson Aviation.
    Buying or leasing these highly modified and expensive firefighting planes isn’t as easy as sharing firefighters in the off-season—as the U.S., Canada and Australia have done for many years. It takes as much as a year to equip a firefighting plane, including getting certification from local aviation authorities to cut holes in the aircraft.

    Australian authorities on Tuesday said they have requested additional specialist aviation equipment from the U.S. and Canada, as well as fire crews able to work in extreme conditions.

    Canada-based Coulson recently expanded its Australian operations and is currently operating across three continents, with aircraft in Orange County, Calif., Chile and Australia. “It’s just one big fire season right now around the world,” said Wayne Coulson, the company’s chief executive. His planes are typically on contract in the U.S. from May through November. In 2019, the company’s first aircraft landed in Australia in August and it has been busy ever since. “We’re flying our butts off right now.”

  39. BW

    A friend of mine did some research into why flash flooding often follows fires. The water resistance of dry soils was a huge factor.

  40. Jeez the Liberals get the spin cycle going fast! Via 2GB:

    Denise Shrivell
    @deniseshrivell

    NSW Liberal Senator promotes radio program hosted by his daughter who is interviewing the son of the former local mayor & National Party member.
    Everything’s fine & normal #auspol

    Senator Jim Molan AO DSC
    @JimMolan
    Cobargo Pub owner David Allen’s view of those who heckled the PM yesterday. He was one of many on the spot asking me to pass his apologies to PM, saying they do not represent Cobargo.

  41. Richard Chirgwin
    @R_Chirgwin
    ·
    12m
    Once again, only raw fury gets Morrison off his arse: AM just reported the natsec committee of cabinet will meet today instead of Monday.

  42. lizzie @ #6133 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 5:29 am

    The 2019 Fact Check Golden Zombie award — for a “debunked claim which refuses to die” — goes to Energy Minister Angus Taylor for repeating his misleading assertion, from April, that the Coalition inherited from Labor a 755 million tonne greenhouse gas “emissions deficit” needed to reach Australia’s second Kyoto target, and, through the Government’s “hard work”, turned this around by 1.1 billion tonnes.

    As Fact Check has pointed out — frequently — the so-called “emissions deficit” referred to by the Coalition was taken from an October 2012 report, and merely represented a forecast of the greenhouse gas emission reductions needed to hit Australia’s 2020 target at that time.

    Soon after the Coalition came to office, in a report released in December 2013 which superseded the 2012 report, it became apparent that emissions under Labor’s carbon tax had been lower than expected.

    Government officials also for the first time factored in a significant “carryover” from the overachievement of the first Kyoto target, covering the period 2008 to 2012.

    Since then, emissions have been lower than anticipated as a result of high power prices, the states’ adoption of renewable energy and the closure of coal-fired power stations, including Victoria’s Hazelwood plant — all of which had little to do with “hard work” by the Coalition.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-19/fact-check-year-ender-2019-angus-taylor-golden-zombie/11802536?section=politics

    Our Angus telling porkies. I’m shocked. Shocked I tells ya.

  43. Douglas and Milko says:
    Friday, January 3, 2020 at 10:31 pm
    Just discovered that the Mount Stromlo Observatory on the south-west fringe of Canberra has been evacuated and closed for operations until next Tuesday. A large portion of it burnt down in the 2003 fires, which started also around Batlow way, as BoerWar noted before. People working at Stromlo back then lost their houses in Duffy.

    Stay safe everyone.

    The ACT government has closed a number of roads accessing areas of bushland around the city and beyond. There is a lot of preparation for today after the experience of the 2003 fires.

    The bushfire threat has now become a bit more personal for me. The pine plantations in the shadow of Mt Stromlo which were burnt have now become the location of new suburbs. Our daughter has a house there and there is a stricter building code to minimise the threat from fires, particularly airborne embers. Nonetheless the threat remains and the ACT government has gone in hard, urging all residents to have a bushfire survival plan. The plan can be downloaded at https://esa.act.gov.au/sites/default/files/2018-12/Bushfire%20Survival%20Plan%202018.pdf

    Last night I learned that our suburb in the far south of Canberra was on the frontline to be affected if the fire(s) west of Kosciuszko were to cross Kosciuszko National Park and Namadgi National Park. The fire front is still about 100km away but the two parks have limited access. On the radio this morning the news was that there is no immediate threat but we will see what happens in coming days. (Hopefully!!) rain forecast for Monday will help across SE NSW.

  46. Bevan Shields
    @BevanShields
    Asked at a press conference whether he would stay in the job, NSW Emergency Services Minister David Elliott replies: “I came back to step up, not to step down.”

    Extraordinary. Gladys Berejiklian looks furious standing next to him.

  47. Not exactly filled with confidence 😆

    I mentioned to you earlier that the NSW emergency services minister David Elliott is back in the state. He’s been under fire for going on holiday during the crisis.

    A reporter asks Berejiklian where Elliott is today. She says he is here at the briefing.

    The reporter asks Elliott if he wants to say where he will be for the day.

    Berejiklian answers for him. “He will be here.”

    Are you glad to have him back?

    “Of course,” the premier says.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/jan/04/australia-nsw-fires-live-updates-victoria-bushfires-rfs-cfa-road-closures-near-sydney-melbourne-latest-news

  48. This is at odds with what Fitzsimmons was saying some weeks back that ‘they had all the resources they needed’. Which put the lack of funding story to bed for a while.

    Now?

    Fitzsimmons is asked about a proposal put to the federal government for a funding boost to the National Aerial Firefighting Centre.

    He confirms that the federal government is yet to back the proposal – and says that fire authorities need more funding certainty.

    “We have had a business case in with the Commonwealth to increase that funding which will be matched by the stats and territories,” he says. “We haven’t seen a positive response to that business case.”

    That business case has been with the federal government for 18 months. But he adds:

    What we have seen is the equivalent of annual injections of funding over the last two seasons, last season and you heard the announcement with the Commonwealth injecting another $11 million. The business case was $11 or $12 million to have that capacity sitting here [each season].

    And Fitzsimmons says that the RFS went to the NSW government and was able to buy its own dedicated air tanker after arrangements were established with the northern hemisphere. NSW is the only state that has been able to do that, he says, and it is able to share its assets with other states.

    “We have national coordination arrangements. They work very well, but what we need is certainty around the funding going forward so we cans ecure better economies of scale and certainty around what we’ve got here and how we’re sharing it going into the future,” he says.

  49. This do-nothing, lazy government.

    Senator Murray Watt @MurrayWatt
    ·
    3m

    NSWRFS Commissioner press conference just confirmed business case for national aerial firefighting capability has been with Feds for over 18 mths. Refers to problems caused by funding uncertainty.

  50. PvO’s column today introduces us to David Elliott. What stand up guy he sounds like. Not.

    I wasn’t going to devote an ­entire column to a relatively unknown state MP, but sometimes you just have to call out wrong­doing.

    Elliott would know that, having used coward’s castle and the protection of parliamentary privilege to attack former state ­opposition leader Luke Foley for alleged sexual assault of a female member of the NSW press gallery.

    The woman in question didn’t want the issue to be publicly aired and in fact had specifically asked it not to be. But Elliott felt dutybound to throw her into the spotlight for the wider importance of naming and shaming Foley.

    Just as he felt dutybound to chase a P-plate driver in November who, Elliott claims, scraped his car but didn’t stop. The 17-year-old alleged Elliott said he “worked for the cops”. Elliott admitted telling the youth “I pay for the badges, I don’t get one”. I’m pretty sure NSW taxpayers pay for the badges.

    Indeed as Police Minister, ­Elliott has felt dutybound to authorise and defend strip-searches of children by police in his home state, even without their parents’ consent. Indeed, without search warrants and despite significant criticisms in the legal community. He defended the practice by saying he’d want his own children strip-searched if police felt they were at risk of doing something wrong.

    Over the past four years, of the 4000 women strip-searched in NSW two-thirds didn’t have anything illicit on them. As former Australian Federal Police commissioner Mick Palmer said, it is “frightening” the attitude the minister and his Police Commissioner, Mick Fuller, have on this issue. Fuller has said young people having a “fear” of police is important, and Elliott backed his comments.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/david-elliott-should-go-for-deserting-post-during-fire-season/news-story/e5965db5b6bdd66835d8b225b4afa441

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