Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

Comments Page 131 of 143
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  2. 16s ago
    03:10
    It’s turned to shit
    An update from Helen, who sent me the last blog post while I was watching the prime minister.

    Now she tells me: A senior RFS source tells me 20 new fires have broken out between Nowra and Batemans Bay, and that fire crews are being pulled out of the Snowy Mountains, east of Jindabyne.

    “It’s turned to shit,” he said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/jan/04/australia-nsw-fires-live-updates-victoria-bushfires-rfs-cfa-road-closures-near-sydney-melbourne-latest-news

  4. I’m looking forward to attending this conference at the University of Adelaide this week:

    Government deficits are normal and even necessary to the health of most economies – that’s according to one of the world’s most influential economists, Professor Stephanie Kelton, who will be a Visiting Professor at the University of Adelaide this month.

    Professor Kelton is the Geoff Harcourt Visiting Professor of Economics at the University of Adelaide and Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Stony Brook University, New York.

    Senior economic adviser to Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign, Professor Kelton has recently been listed by Bloomberg as one of the 50 people who defined 2019. She was previously chief economist on the US Senate Budget Committee (Democratic staff) in Washington DC.

    Professor Kelton is one of the leading experts on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a new approach to economics that is taking the world by storm.

    MMT seeks to overturn the myth that currency-issuing federal governments face similar budget constraints to households, businesses and state governments. It explains that such governments are constrained in their spending decisions only by the risk of inflation, and never by the threat of insolvency. There are real constraints, but there are no purely financial ones.
    …..

    Professor Kelton will deliver the annual Harcourt lecture – The Deficit Myth – Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy – at the University of Adelaide on Tuesday 14 January to a packed audience. The event was sold-out almost as soon as it was announced.

    Her much-anticipated book, The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and Creating an Economy for the People (to be published on 9 June, 2020), will show how to break free of the thinking that she says has hamstrung policymakers in Australia and around the world.

    Professor Kelton will also be a keynote speaker at the sustainable prosperity conference, Modern Money and Green New Deal, to be held at the University of Adelaide from Friday 10 January to Sunday 12 January, and will meet a series of political and business leaders while she is in South Australia, between 6 January and 15 January.

    https://www.miragenews.com/visiting-economist-explodes-myths-of-public-deficits/?fbclid=IwAR3YagUv0PyHmkpHUQbdQLw_XG1z8niWaONl5DMGkkMkGH8iMC79RIwb-20

  5. JM says: Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 2:07 pm

    “going forward”

    I recall Gillard getting caned by our MSM for using ‘moving forward’ a few times in a speech (campaign?).

    ***************************************************

    Reminds me of the old Devo song : Whip It

    Now whip it
    Into shape
    Shape it up
    Get straight
    Go forward
    Move ahead
    Try to detect it
    It’s not too late
    To whip it
    Whip it good

  6. a r @ #6385 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 1:00 pm

    KayJay @ #6065 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 6:50 am

    For AR should you be about.

    C+ needs a tweak to adjust for very long threads.

    I see what you mean, though there’s not much the plugin can do about it; it’s actually the blog that’s being slow.

    To get the most recent posts, the plugin calls a URL like:

    https://www.pollbludger.net/wp-json/wp/v2/comments/?post=43143&per_page=50&page=1&before=2020-01-04T12:24:55

    Problem is that the blog takes almost a full minute to deliver a response to that (probably because the number of posts cause the backing database to get bogged down):

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    So the plugin works, just requires a bit of patience on this thread. Some things that might help are:

    – Reduce the ‘Comments per page’ option in the plugin settings
    – Ensure you’re using ‘Recent comments first’
    – Increase the ‘Auto-update interval’ to 5 minutes
    – Avoid manually refreshing the page; just be patient and let the auto-updates work
    – Avoid adding superfluous posts to the thread 🙂
    – Hope a new thread starts soon

    Quoted in full should others be interested.

    Thank you AR – Good information.

  7. Had this fool of a man taken the advice of climate scientists, fire and emergency chiefs seriously, it probably would not’ve been a case of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. And wasn’t it Morrison who said the ADF, and by implication, the Rockies, weren’t trained to fight bush fires? The man’s full of shit.

    No, Mavis, mundo will tell you, Scott Morrison is God’s gift to Australia!

  9. Perhaps I am missing something but can anyone help me understand why we need to call up 3000 reservists given we have a standing regular army ?

    Surely the logistics involved in using regular defence force personnel would be far less complicated and time consuming ?

    Thanks in advance for any replies.

  12. Quoll @ #6485 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:00 pm

    Amidst that excessive presser
    Interesting to see SmoKo suck the ALP into the climate change question, he’s saying current action is bipartisan, nothing between the Lib and Lab parties

    Coal and gas are good for the country, nothing more to do or say here

    Wondering if anyone will ask Albo if that’s true from him too?

    Well, if it is not true, I expect Albo will repudiate it quicksmart, so that Labor don’t get sucked into Smirko’s pyrocumulus vortex … waiting … waiting … 🙁

  13. steve davis

    We’re really pushing excrement up hill all the time. But then, with such an accomplished liar for PM, it’s easy to understand how ppl can make up their own ‘science’.

  14. @WrittenOnWater
    ·
    12m
    Those damn arsonists are determined. There must be a small army of them coordinating air drops into remote mountain wilderness areas along the entire length of Aust’s Eastern ranges. And let’s not forget the gangs of Little Lucifers planting spontaneously combusting dung bombs.

  15. I have posted numerous times since the election that I now realise and fully accept I have no idea what the average non political tragic Australian really thinks.

    So, with the above paragraph as a disclaimer, I would be very surprised if those Australians fighting the fires today and those being forced to evacuate their homes as their communities burn would be jumping with joy at the Morrison announcement.

    Planes to take at least a week to arrive and who knows how long for the reservists to arrive to help given the logistics. Not a great deal of joy there for people who are living the disaster today especially as all this could already have in place

    Just my own personal thoughts.

  16. Sonar,

    Hottest day on record here……..Penrith………47.8C………….FMD it’s hot.
    #weatheronPB

    Stay as cool as you can. In the city, I am watching weird clouds and a stream of smoke towards the south west. I am guessing it is the Green Wattle Creek fire near Wollondilly. Strange clouds in the direction of the Grose Valley, but no movement in the fire according to my friends in the mountains, yet anyway.

  17. doyley @ #6511 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:16 pm

    Perhaps I am missing something but can anyone help me understand why we need to call up 3000 reservists given we have a standing regular army ?

    Surely the logistics involved in using regular defence force personnel would be far less complicated and time consuming ?

    Thanks in advance for any replies.

    Because he gets to use more fancy shmancy words like, ‘Stand up’, ‘they have been working on a “response to requests” model, but “going forward” they will be taking the initiative’, that sort of thing. Stormin’ Norman Schwarzkopf, Scott’s idol, will have nothing on General Speaking in Tongues Morrison! 😆

  18. lizzie,

    Tegan George (Network 10)
    @tegangeorge
    ·
    41m
    We have been with the Bega Valley ppl at the showground for 5 days and they have welcomed us into their community. We have told their stories, respected their privacy, laughed and cried with them. Now
    @nswpolice has decided to show up and kick us out. I have no words.

    Sounds like Scotty from marketing may be making a visit there – or maybe this is retribution for some of Channel 10’s less than favourable coverage of the PM.

  21. C@t

    I was thinking that ScoMo has perfected the art of ‘stream of consciousness’ public speaking, but with added statistics, from many years of participation in his local chapter of Hillsong.

  22. D & M,
    David ‘The NSW Police can strip search my teenage daughters anytime I don’t care’ Elliott is back in the saddle. Say no more than I’m sure he would advise them to kick out the truth tellers.

  23. lizzie @ #6523 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:30 pm

    C@t

    I was thinking that ScoMo has perfected the art of ‘stream of consciousness’ public speaking, but with added statistics, from many years of participation in his local chapter of Hillsong.

    It’s Managerialese on steroids, lizzie. How to seem like you are saying something without saying anything at all.

  24. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-rejected-major-air-tanker-expansion-20200103-p53onl.html

    “Labor went to the last federal election promising an $80 million policy to create a national firefighting fleet to make up for a long-term fall in federal assistance. Then Labor leader Bill Shorten said the money would go towards at least six very large air-tankers as well as helicopters.

    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese wrote to Mr Morrison in November asking him to call a meeting of the Council of Australian Governments to discuss national disaster responses including aerial firefighting.

    “I proposed that COAG expand the capacity of Australia’s National Aerial Firefighting Centre and increase its funding,” Mr Albanese said. “Australia faces a national bushfire emergency and it requires a national response.””

    So, historical fact is that the ALP had a good policy going into the last election, that if had been enacted would maybe have made a difference to the situation we have right now.

    Smoko playing catch up too fwarking late. 🙁

  25. Morrison says it will take at least a week for the water-bombing aircraft to arrive. A fat lot of good that’ll do. Why weren’t they ordered two months ago and why weren’t ADF personnel & assets mobilised? Oh, that’s right, there was the religious freedoms bill to consider, and planning a secret holiday to Hawaii.

  26. lizzie @ #6561 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:30 pm

    C@t

    I was thinking that ScoMo has perfected the art of ‘stream of consciousness’ public speaking, but with added statistics, from many years of participation in his local chapter of Hillsong.

    The figures he quotes have as much significance as anything else he says – nothing. He is now the second most despised person in the country.

  28. An entire week where the National Security Committee could have been meeting before Christmas went by while Scotty From Marketing was on retreat in Hawaii.

  29. doyley @ #6507 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:16 pm

    Perhaps I am missing something but can anyone help me understand why we need to call up 3000 reservists given we have a standing regular army ?

    Surely the logistics involved in using regular defence force personnel would be far less complicated and time consuming ?

    Thanks in advance for any replies.

    I wondered the same thing.

    Could it be that business bears most of the costs of calling up the reservists (most of whom have full time jobs) whereas the government bears the cost of using full-time ADF personnel?

    Also, if we used the full-time ADF, who would we send to Iran when Drumpf pulls Morrison’s chain?

  30. Doyley

    Reason left this government a while ago. 3000 being called up is an attempt at catch up. Too late for today despite knowing it was going to get worse after New Years.

    Thank god for Daniel Andrews in Victoria being prepared. Things would have been much much worse.

    Yes I am still agnostic.

  31. Sam Maiden asked him directly about the conflicting recollections of his conversation with Zoey McDermott.

    He directly lied AGAIN on this subject.

  33. rhwombat

    That $11 million has been working overtime for months. But any number of millions is enough to impress (rude description deleted).

  34. ‘bakunin says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 1:38 pm

    BW,

    Do you know if the heath at Shipwreck Ck burnt?’

    I don’t know but I reckon you can bet your house on it being gone.

  35. simon holmes à court
    @simonahac
    ·
    2m
    looks like “alarmists” were right. #canberra:

    • air qual up to 38x worse than hazardous
    • residents told to stay indoors
    • MRI machines shut down
    • australia post suspended deliveries
    • P2 masks sold out
    • unis, zoo, pools shut
    • sports cancelled

  36. I am curious about why reservists and not regulars.

    The Budget Surplus motivation would reverse this. Regulars are a sunk cost. Calling up reservists is an additional charge on the Budget. The equipment use is the same. In either case I assume that any additional costs will come from within the existing Defence vote.

  38. doyley:

    Re. your query as to why the reserves have been called up.

    The ADF was certainly sent to Darwin, in the wake of Tracy.

    I can’t fathom why permanent members of ADF are not being used, there being no extra cost involved because they would get paid in any event.

  39. This is a common theme on twitter when not posting directly about how to get help

    @grifonaut

    @EddyJokovich Given that fires have been burning since September, the Morrison-Dutton Regime has thrown plenty of money & resources to protect communities, farmland, & environment? Of course they haven’t. That would acknowledge the #ClimateCrisis they deny on behalf of their #Coal bosses

  40. My personal Despicable Dozen rankings as of 03:47z 04/01/20:
    (1) Elliot
    (2) Scummo
    (3) Taylor
    (4) Dutton
    (5) Murdoch, R.
    (6 – 12) All the little Orcs.
    Modifications welcome.

  41. Rosie Williams
    @Info_Aus
    ·
    1h
    So this is crazy. I’ve just been told that the ABS intends to add a question to the census to require us to disclose every health condition we’ve been diagnosed with. https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2019-41183

    Possible answers.
    Well, my relative’s a nurse and she’s sure I’ve got arthritis but one doctor says it’s being overweight and another thinks it’s the onset of parkinson’s. What shall I write? Might as well put all three.

  42. Bushfire Bill @ #6517 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:29 pm

    Best wishes for your daughter, Kayjay.

    Shit situation. They’ve been cut off a couple of times.

    She is a registered nurse working in aged care. Husband has advanced bowel cancer. She has taken his place in RFS and now drives heavy vehicles (she scares me).

    I wonder and am very concerned about the unfortunate residents of aged care facility everywhere – and particularly now with the possibility of no power, no communication, no support and dreadful air quality.

    In the meanwhile, being a long time admirerer of Maxwell Smart, I won’t hear a word against Mr. Whatsisname.

    “Why he’s the pick of the scum of the waterfront”.

    Go well amigo. 😵 and 🤯 (exploding head).

  43. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 2:06 pm

    Quoll @ #6491 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:00 pm

    Amidst that excessive presser
    Interesting to see SmoKo suck the ALP into the climate change question, he’s saying current action is bipartisan, nothing between the Lib and Lab parties

    Coal and gas are good for the country, nothing more to do or say here

    Wondering if anyone will ask Albo if that’s true from him too?

    We all know the two major parties are essentially same same on ‘climate change’ policy.

    The really tragic thing in all this is there’s no change in sight.’

    What’s the difference between Scotty from Marketing and Rexie from Greens Marketing?

    None at all.

  45. Player One @ #6506 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:22 pm

    Quoll @ #6485 Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 2:00 pm

    Amidst that excessive presser
    Interesting to see SmoKo suck the ALP into the climate change question, he’s saying current action is bipartisan, nothing between the Lib and Lab parties

    Coal and gas are good for the country, nothing more to do or say here

    Wondering if anyone will ask Albo if that’s true from him too?

    Well, if it is not true, I expect Albo will repudiate it quicksmart, so that Labor don’t get sucked into Smirko’s pyrocumulus vortex … waiting … waiting … 🙁

    …still waiting…..

  47. @tegangeorge
    · 20m
    Thank you for all your tweets. @nswpolice media has told us it was a misunderstanding … and we are allowed back inside the grounds at Bega.

  49. Currawon Fire has jumped the Shoalhaven River again with TooLateToLeave for North Nowra and thereabouts.

    Anyway, the planes will be here in 7- 14 days.

  50. Where the fark can we find a journo to directly accuse Scrott of lying as it is all on video and he and we all saw it, there is no room for ‘differing recollections’ .

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