Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Another modest Coalition lead from the second poll in a new-look Newspoll series, which also finds Scott Morrison rated well for strength, vision and experience, but higher than he’d like for arrogance. Also featured: a quick early look at the ANU’s deep and wide post-election survey.

The second Newspoll conducted under the new regime of online polls conducted by YouGov records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, out from 51-49 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 42%, Labor is steady on 33%, the Greens are down one to 11% and One Nation is steady on 5%. Both leaders’ personal ratings are improved after weak results last time, with Scott Morrison up two on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 48%, and Anthony Albanese up two to 40% and down four to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-35 to 48-34.

Respondents were also asked to rate the leaders according to nine attributes, eight positive and one negative. Morrison scored higher than Albanese for the experience (68-64), decisiveness and strength (60-51) and having a vision for Australia (60-54), while Albanese had the edge on caring for people (60-55). There was essentially nothing to separate them on understanding the major issues (57-56 to Albanese), likeability (56-56), being in touch with voters (50-49 to Albanese) and trustworthiness (49-48). However, Morrison’s worst result was his 58-40 lead on the one negative quality that was gauged – arrogance.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1503. The Australian’s paywalled report of the results is here.

In other poll news, a uComms poll (apparently minus the ReachTEL branding now) for the Courier-Mail ($) suggests Queensland’s embattled Deputy Premier, Jackie Trad, is in grave danger of losing her seat of South Brisbane to the Greens. The poll shows the Greens on 29.4%, Labor on 27.5% and the Liberal National Party on 26.6%, with 10.4% undecided. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, but this may flatter Labor given the LNP’s announcement that they would direct preferences against them. No field work date is provided that I can see, but the sample size was 700. The deficiencies of automated phone polls in inner city seats were noted by Kevin Bonham, among others.

UPDATE: In better poll news still, the results from the post-election Australian Election Study survey are available in all their glory, courtesy of the Australian National University. You can view the ANU’s overview of the findings here, but the real fun of this resource is that it allows you to cross-tabulate responses to 3143-respondent survey across a dizzying range of variables. The survey also includes demographic weightings that presume to correct for the biases introduced by the survey process. The survey also addresses a long-standing criticism by including a component of 968 respondents who also completed the 2016 survey, allowing for study of the changing behaviour of the same set of respondents over time.

Rest assured you will be hearing a great deal more about the survey going forward, but for the time being, here’s one set of numbers I have crunched for starters. This shows the primary vote broken down into three age cohorts, and compares them with the equivalent figures from the 2016 survey. This produces some eye-catching results, particularly in regard to a probably excessive surge in support for the Coalition among the middle-aged cohort – mostly at the expense of “others”. By contrast, the young cohort swung heavily to the left, while the boomers were relatively static.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

580 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 12
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  3. Why would I be shamed by Firefox’s ‘alternative news’.

    I suggest he follows sprocket’s example whereby he provides his cutting and pasting from the one source over multiple sequential posts, for example speeches by Albanese.

    This practice always gets a rolled gold pass by the usual suspects.

    Go figure.

  4. Pegasussays:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 9:12 am

    If Labor continues on its pro-coal trajectory it will lose a whole new cohort of young voters to the Greens, a cohort who will likely remain rusted on for subsequent elections.

    Yes, accepting the reality that we need coal power until it can be replaced by renewables is so bad.

  7. Climate change concern helped Labor at 2019 election but Coalition won on economy – survey

    ANU survey finds Labor loss due to erosion of working class base and Coalition’s perceived advantage on economy and tax

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/09/climate-change-concern-helped-labor-at-2019-election-but-coalition-won-on-economy-survey

    The proportion of voters nominating global warming and the environment as their top issue is at an all-time high, helping Labor win votes at the May 2019 election despite its shock loss.
    :::
    The study confirms a trend of declining satisfaction with Australia’s democracy – down 27 points since 2007 to 59% – with most voters (56%) believing government is run for “a few big interests” rather than for “all the people” (12%).

    The study found that two-thirds of voters (66%) primarily decided their vote based on policy issues, compared with 19% who voted based on the parties as a whole, 8% on local candidates and 7% on the party leaders (7%).

    The most important policy issues for voters were management of the economy (24%), health (22%), taxation (12%), the environment (11%) and global warming (10%). One in five respondents nominating environmental issues as their top concern is a record, up from fewer than 10% of voters in 2016.
    :::
    “The study shows a clear rise in support for minor parties among voters, while 21% cent of Australians don’t align with any party at all,” she said.

    The study found that while 41% of working class people vote for Labor compared with 29% of middle class voters, there is nevertheless a long-term decline in Labor’s working class base. In 1987, some 60% of the working class voted for Labor, down to 48% in 2016.
    :::
    Just one in four Australians believe that people in government can be trusted to do the right thing, while three quarters believe that people in government are looking after themselves. Trust in government has declined by nearly 20% since 2007.

  9. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #104 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 9:19 am

    Pegasussays:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 9:12 am

    If Labor continues on its pro-coal trajectory it will lose a whole new cohort of young voters to the Greens, a cohort who will likely remain rusted on for subsequent elections.

    Yes, accepting the reality that we need coal power until it can be replaced by renewables is so bad.

    This is simply not true. But even if it were … we need to export it … why?

    Nobody needs our coal. They buy it because we are willing to sell it dirt cheap 🙁

    None of the nonsense posted here can get around these simple facts.

  10. Confessions @ #90 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 9:05 am

    kayjay:

    These days you need full body armour.

    I forgot the primary item which enables one to remain impervious to sniper fire ( reminds me of an old song “Oh dig my grave and dig it deep” sung with cheerful exuberant tone)

    Handy hint – keep yer head down. I’m keep the standard password —
    “Honarooroo” – most a them furriners can’t say that.

    Big day today – lawn and path edging. Exercise mainly. 💐 – closest I can get to grass.

  11. Firefox says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 8:55 am

    …”If your job involves destroying the planet, then you shouldn’t have that job”…

    The above sentence has my vote for the most contemptably idiotic statement ever made on this blog.

    Congratulations.

  13. I guess that’s why the 15 year old, NSW co-ordinator of the ‘School Strikes for Climate’ spoke at the conference on the weekend. 😐

  14. Not Sure @ #111 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 9:27 am

    Firefox says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 8:55 am

    …”If your job involves destroying the planet, then you shouldn’t have that job”…

    The above sentence has my vote for the most contemptably idiotic statement ever made on this blog.

    Congratulations.

    Spoken by a true comfortably numb elitist, eh?

  15. Bellwether

    I suggest you “google up” the beliefs of the Pentecostals and The Assemblies of God . Then consider that the leader of our country believes in , for instance,speaking in tongues , faith healing , prays for the imminent Rapture, the literal translation of the bible. Also having seen a couple of videos of his church they are bigly into “prosperity theology” ( A nice way of saying money grubbing) . All in all just the sort of kook you want to run your country in the 21st century.

  16. Another take on the AES

    Bill Shorten least popular leader since 1990: election study

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-least-popular-leader-since-1990-election-study-20191208-p53hz3.html

    Voters swung behind Prime Minister Scott Morrison on the strength of their concerns about the economy and personal leadership, says a major new study that reveals the key factors in this year’s election.
    :::
    The study of the May election found that Mr Morrison was the most popular leader since Kevin Rudd led Labor to the 2007 election….
    :::
    The study found that Mr Shorten was the least popular leader of any major political party since 1990.
    :::
    Another study author, Jill Sheppard of the ANU, said voters swung to the Coalition on the economy, tax and leadership, while they swung to Labor on the environment.

    “What the study shows is that a key concern for voters was the economy. And this is what tipped the balance in favour of the Coalition,” she said in a statement for the public launch of the report on Monday.
    :::
    Opinions on China have shifted dramatically. Only 8 per cent agreed in 2004 that China was “very likely” to be a security threat to Australia but this climbed to 32 per cent this year. Another 43 per cent said this was “fairly likely”.

    Trust in the United States has fallen sharply, with 69 per cent saying this year the country could be trusted to come to Australia’s defence, down from 80 per cent at the last election. Support for the US alliance is roughly steady at 85 per cent.

  17. Firefox says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 8:55 am

    …”The Greens – the party who fights hardest for people doing it tough”…

    Hang on, he seems to have outdone himself.

  18. Good Morning

    I see Labor has its Meg Lees moment today as it turns its back on the environment for money.

    The politics is in the too hard basket to listen to Peter Garrett.

    Instead its take the LNP talking points and sneer at the Labor base as you sell it out.

    When you are using the tobacco industry arguments you are on the wrong side of history.
    Many people today will be asking what is Labor for? Many people will be reconsidering voting for the Greens now.

    I know that with this move Labor has made it very hard to preference them above Labor as they confirm they are for vested interests not the national and international good. Labor has today chosen the same side as Donald Trump. You better hope he gets reelected because you are going to look like a shag on a rock when the Democrats President gets elected.

    Just appalling Labor no long term vision.

  19. “The above sentence has my vote for the most contemptably idiotic statement ever made on this blog.”

    Sorry if the truth hurts. People should not have jobs that involve the unnecessary destruction of the environment. Full stop. The Greens are the only ones being honest with these people. We have their families’ best interests at heart. We are protecting both the environment as well as looking out for the economic well being of these people. They need to be supported as they transition out of their dying industry.

  20. @Pollytics tweets

    Just a reminder of the golden rule of left parties – when you try to be all things to all people, you end up being nothing to everyone.

    After 50 years of getting repeatedly obliterated by that rule, you’d think people would remember it by now

  21. Michelle Grattan on the AES

    https://theconversation.com/voters-send-sharp-message-to-politicians-about-trust-anu-australian-election-study-128537

    The Australian National University’s election study has underscored the woeful lack of trust voters have in the political system, and highlighted the role economic issues and Bill Shorten’s unpopularity played in the May poll outcome.
    :::
    The study shows the high voting volatility of the modern Australian electorate – in 2019 fewer than four in ten (39%) said they had always voted for the same party; in 1967, this figure was 72%.
    :::
    The AES’s lead researcher, Ian McAllister, said the findings did not support the argument some commentators were making that a political party could never win with a policy of significant change to the tax system. He said Labor’s problem was not so much its radical tax package as its inability to convince voters the tax changes would make the national economy more prosperous.

  23. Cat

    You have in particular have grabbed hold of McCormack’s sneering at its base. Those inner city lefty elites that vote for Albanese and Plibersek will be pissed at you using National Party rhetoric.

    Ditto with Safe Labor seats around the country. Voters will not be impressed at all. Get rid of that sneer at the different views. You can argue for coal without the sneering arrogance.

  24. Constitutional law scholar Laurence Tribe has his say about what the articles of impeachment should include.

    To be clear, I am by no means advocating charging Trump with all of his many impeachable offenses. Nor is that in the cards. The House leadership has clearly been parsimonious in leaving behind a boatload of potential impeachable offenses, including blatant violations of the foreign and domestic emoluments clauses, the Constitution’s main anti-corruption clauses; violating election laws as unindicted co-conspirator “Individual 1” in the Stormy Daniels affair; endangering the First Amendment by labeling the press the “enemy of the people”; fomenting racial violence and attacks on critics who include patriotic witnesses; and any number of other things that many have pressed the Judiciary Committee to include in a comprehensive set of impeachment articles. The committee will likely resist those pleas for breadth, and I will applaud it for doing so.

    Rather, I am advocating that there be two or, at most, three articles of impeachment together describing a single, continuous course of conduct in which the president placed his personal and political interests above those of the nation. That narrative should include Trump’s attempt to pressure Ukraine into helping his reelection campaign just as the books appeared to close on the investigation into his invitation for illegal help from Russia to become president in the first place. And it should extend to his obstruction of justice to conceal his campaign’s role in taking advantage of that help — a demonstrated pattern of obstruction he has escalated in his unprecedented directive that the entire executive branch refuse to comply with lawful congressional subpoenas.

    A president whose Justice Department says he cannot be indicted, whose White House counsel says he cannot even be investigated and whose lawyers say he can block the executive branch from participating in the impeachment process is a president who has become a dictator. None of us can feel safe in such a regime.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/12/05/democrats-are-debating-dangerous-false-choice-impeachment/

  25. “Spoken by a true comfortably numb elitist, eh?”

    ***

    Thought you were ignoring us Greens, Cat? You know, “I have decided to be more respectful and let them get on with it how they choose to and not reply to any of it.” Forgotten all that BS already, have we? Or will you only ignore us when it suits you so you can avoid being asked inconvenient questions?

  26. You know, if The Greens’ ranters were true to their word, they would throw away their computers, produced with coal-fired power in China and from fossil fuels that make the plastic they are created from and only engage with PB via letters written on recycled paper with vegetable ink and sent by carrier pigeon. 🙂

  28. “I think that numbness is in the ‘cerebral’ cortex.”

    ***

    Here’s Cat demonstrating how “to be more respectful and let them get on with it how they choose to and not reply to any of it.”

  29. 1) Voting should be weighted by education level & IQ score (with IQ tests being mandatory to be able to vote). The IQ score should not be age adjusted/standardised. Education & IQ is correlated to critical thinking
    2) People over 65 should be barred from voting, until people under 18 are allowed to. Additionally in this scenario, voting should also be age weighted with it highest at the lowest voting age, lowering as you age because you are progressively less likely (no pun intended…) to cop the consequences of your vote.

  30. How much longer are people going to put up with the sight of the so called Prime Minister attending an RFS facility far from the fire fronts and starting his radio message to them with:
    Hi it’s scomo here…

    Utterly cringeworthy and childish to boot.

    🤮

  31. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 9:28 am

    …”Spoken by a true comfortably numb elitist, eh?”…

    Yesterday, my job involved wasting about 2 trees worth of copy paper.
    I’m more like one of Firefox’s undeserving of employment type of environment destroying vandal, rather than an elitist.

  32. Player Onesays:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 9:26 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #104 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 9:19 am

    Pegasussays:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 9:12 am

    If Labor continues on its pro-coal trajectory it will lose a whole new cohort of young voters to the Greens, a cohort who will likely remain rusted on for subsequent elections.

    Yes, accepting the reality that we need coal power until it can be replaced by renewables is so bad.

    This is simply not true. But even if it were … we need to export it … why?

    Nobody needs our coal. They buy it because we are willing to sell it dirt cheap

    None of the nonsense posted here can get around these simple facts.

    So you’d be happy with daily blackouts and the problems that would cause in allowing our Society to function.

  35. Cat

    Wow you really are pulling all the dinosaur quotes from the LNP denials camp about the Greens.

    Says more about you than the Greens as you embrace LNP rhetoric.

    The new Cat and maybe Labor philosophy. All the way with the LNP.

  37. Barney

    Daily blackouts happen due to coal power plants not renewables. Even with its new embrace of coal Labor is not ditching renewables.

    A position Labor could have avoided if it had embraced its successful policy of the Carbon Price Policy and agreeing with the international community.

    Now its joined the fossilised dinosaurs arguing on the wrong side of history for an industry that threatens humanity’s survival on the planet. There is no Planet B for humanity.

  38. Aqualung @ #128 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 9:48 am

    How much longer are people going to put up with the sight of the so called Prime Minister attending an RFS facility far from the fire fronts and starting his radio message to them with:
    Hi it’s scomo here…

    Utterly cringeworthy and childish to boot.

    🤮

    I suspect the punters love it. Pretty sure Adman would have tested it.

  40. guytaur @ #116 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 9:38 am

    Good Morning

    I see Labor has its Meg Lees moment today as it turns its back on the environment for money.

    The politics is in the too hard basket to listen to Peter Garrett.

    Instead its take the LNP talking points and sneer at the Labor base as you sell it out.

    When you are using the tobacco industry arguments you are on the wrong side of history.
    Many people today will be asking what is Labor for? Many people will be reconsidering voting for the Greens now.

    I know that with this move Labor has made it very hard to preference them above Labor as they confirm they are for vested interests not the national and international good. Labor has today chosen the same side as Donald Trump. You better hope he gets reelected because you are going to look like a shag on a rock when the Democrats President gets elected.

    Just appalling Labor no long term vision.

    Long term?
    Can’t see through to next week end.

  41. Firefox says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 9:38 am

    …”Sorry if the truth hurts. People should not have jobs that involve the unnecessary destruction of the environment”…

    I murdered two trees yesterday, and in doing so I helped fund the feeding and clothing of three small boys who are also doing their bit as undeserving environmental vandals.

    Maybe, someday one of those children might grow up and find a cure for cancer, or some other pointless shit which will just result in other environmental vandals living longer and thus doing more acts environmental vandalism.

    Would it be for best if I saved all the trouble and took them to the vet and had them euthanased?

  44. Mundo

    I am hoping that Albo succeeds in cleaning out the NSW Branch. If he does that Labor will recover. I don’t know if it will be in time to save the party but I hope so.

    I know that when Meg Lees backed the GST that was the end of the Australian Democrats.
    I think this Labor decision is as self destructive. However Labor is not the Democrats so maybe they can still be rescued from their own folly with a change in the NSW branch giving real voice to members over the vested interests.

  45. You’re probably right mundo.
    Interesting tidbit. I was having drinks on Friday night deep in the seat of Cook. Annual thing.
    Conversation naturally gravitated to the bushfires.
    Amongst the group a geologist and Pentecostalist who have both not been backwards in poopooing climate change.
    On Friday night those words actually passed their lips. I nearly dropped my beer.
    How long it will last I do not know.

  46. So according to the post-election Australian Election Study survey, Morrison’s the most popular PM since Rudd in 2007. And re. Newspoll, his lead over Albanese is increasing. It can be deduced therefore that his carriage of, among other things, the bush fire crisis and the economy is acceptable to most Australians. And although he’s seen as arrogant, his party has an election-winning 2PP lead. His 16-month honeymoon continues unabated. I wonder what it will be like come March?

  47. mundo

    No, it’s because this is a psephological site and we relied on analysing the polls.

    Far more scientific than going by our guts, but sometimes even science gets it wrong.

  48. guytaur @ #135 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 9:50 am

    The new Cat and maybe Labor philosophy. All the way with the LNP.

    Labor is clearly on the cusp of accepting the Coal Fitzgibbon “pro-coal” policy. This was always the most likely outcome of the internal Labor brawl (of which the Labor-Green wars here are only a minor skirmish).

    Labor clearly believes they will win less votes on climate change then they would lose on coal. Yes, that’s mercenary, stupid and short-sighted, but when has politics ever been otherwise?

    C@t is just trotting out the new “official” line. Sadly, I think even she probably realizes it makes very little sense, and will quite possibly lose them the next election. But in Labor, it has always been more important to lose – but with your faction at the controls – than win 🙁

  50. P1

    As soon as that becomes obvious to voters there will be a mass exodus from Labor. The one lesson from the Obeid saga is you make your party unelectable associating with that behaviour.

    Edit: Especially with the double standard applied to Labor by the media in contrast to what the LNP does.

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