The second Newspoll conducted under the new regime of online polls conducted by YouGov records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, out from 51-49 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 42%, Labor is steady on 33%, the Greens are down one to 11% and One Nation is steady on 5%. Both leaders’ personal ratings are improved after weak results last time, with Scott Morrison up two on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 48%, and Anthony Albanese up two to 40% and down four to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-35 to 48-34.
Respondents were also asked to rate the leaders according to nine attributes, eight positive and one negative. Morrison scored higher than Albanese for the experience (68-64), decisiveness and strength (60-51) and having a vision for Australia (60-54), while Albanese had the edge on caring for people (60-55). There was essentially nothing to separate them on understanding the major issues (57-56 to Albanese), likeability (56-56), being in touch with voters (50-49 to Albanese) and trustworthiness (49-48). However, Morrison’s worst result was his 58-40 lead on the one negative quality that was gauged – arrogance.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1503. The Australian’s paywalled report of the results is here.
In other poll news, a uComms poll (apparently minus the ReachTEL branding now) for the Courier-Mail ($) suggests Queensland’s embattled Deputy Premier, Jackie Trad, is in grave danger of losing her seat of South Brisbane to the Greens. The poll shows the Greens on 29.4%, Labor on 27.5% and the Liberal National Party on 26.6%, with 10.4% undecided. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, but this may flatter Labor given the LNP’s announcement that they would direct preferences against them. No field work date is provided that I can see, but the sample size was 700. The deficiencies of automated phone polls in inner city seats were noted by Kevin Bonham, among others.
UPDATE: In better poll news still, the results from the post-election Australian Election Study survey are available in all their glory, courtesy of the Australian National University. You can view the ANU’s overview of the findings here, but the real fun of this resource is that it allows you to cross-tabulate responses to 3143-respondent survey across a dizzying range of variables. The survey also includes demographic weightings that presume to correct for the biases introduced by the survey process. The survey also addresses a long-standing criticism by including a component of 968 respondents who also completed the 2016 survey, allowing for study of the changing behaviour of the same set of respondents over time.
Rest assured you will be hearing a great deal more about the survey going forward, but for the time being, here’s one set of numbers I have crunched for starters. This shows the primary vote broken down into three age cohorts, and compares them with the equivalent figures from the 2016 survey. This produces some eye-catching results, particularly in regard to a probably excessive surge in support for the Coalition among the middle-aged cohort – mostly at the expense of “others”. By contrast, the young cohort swung heavily to the left, while the boomers were relatively static.
Better PM – M 48% (+2%) ; A 34% (-1%)
The change from last time is within margin of error.
Morrison has a vision for the country? It would have been interesting to have asked responders what they thought it was.
Poll QLD State Seat of South Brisbane 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (-1.6 from election) GRN 48 (+1.6) #qldpol #auspol
GhostWhoVotes https://mobile.twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1203177893100060672
Keep up the Greens v Labor vibe and bully Morrison will be laughing all the way to the next election and beyond. Pathetic.
Good to see ScoMo’s arrogance rating. Australian voters hate arrogance i.e. PJK and Turnbull. ScoMo’s personality is going to wear thin pretty rapidly.
BB
Our polls should be more accurate than UK and US ones if sample sizes are the same.
However until we get new election benchmarks to model them against I agree it’s proceed with caution.
What they tell me is Labor is back to what it was in the last election cycle. Honeymoon period still applies with signs it’s ending.
Labor is still in with a good chance of winning the next election.
That’s if the likes of Joel Fitzgibbon take Peter Garrett’s advice.
The XPT is good for digital detox.
Almost no signal (old style metal film window tinting) and lots of time for a book 🙂
Guytaur
The Palmer effect hasn’t been fully quantised. Its something I was hoping one of the full time psephologists would write about.
I’m fairly sure Labor would have won (barely) if not for the Palmer effect.
Palmer effectively ran $60 million worth of ads for the Liberals. Several effects. First was adding negativity toward Labor. Second was starving Labor of oxygen and even air time. Third was contributing preference leakage away from Labor. Especially in QLD.
Its a scandal that someone can effectively buy an election. When I was asked what I would do if I won $100 million (I had a Powerball ticket) I would answer “I could buy an election” or “I could do a Palmer”.
What is the more experienced metric measuring?
Albanese has been in parliament for 20+ years. Scammo just over 10.
Both have had similar ministerial experience.
It’s a meaningless question without more context.
Have you arrived in Brissy yet Andy Murray?
Refreshed?
“The XPT is good for digital detox.
Almost no signal (old style metal film window tinting) and lots of time for a book ”
And it gets in a stupid-o’clock too
It’s a loooong trip Andy.
Honeymoon period? WTF?
Palmer Effect? Pretty sure that has been completely debunked by Mr Bowe.
The ALP v Green on this site has zero impact on voters.
Voters clearly don’t care about the Undergraduate level politics of the attacks on Taylor nor the Climate Change alarmism.
Bucephalus
I’d agree that the comments on PB can’t affect results, but outside PB, the attacks by Labor on Taylor are not ridiculous: they are attacking someone who blatantly lies about his own actions as well as his supposed success as a minister. Australian voters may not all understand the facts about climate change, but countries in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) certainly do, as do a majority of scientists.
So Labor still on track to win the next election.
This is a video message from Brian Houston of Hillsong on the fires. “Better days are ahead” !
To me, he’s not a very inspiring speaker, but we know he’s very clever at making money and selling books.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1196561062104948736
Morning all. Albanese doubles down on the 19th century policy push.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-says-australia-should-continue-to-export-coal-20191208-p53hyp.html
Lizzie,
You think voters are stupid – they aren’t and the voting and polling shows that.
Pretty sure the IUCN don’t get a vote in Australia.
Bucephalus @ #14 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 5:21 am
You still put your faith in polls? How very quaint.
Bucephalus
“You think voters are stupid – they aren’t and the voting and polling shows that.”
No, not stupid, but most definitely ill-informed.
Bucephalus
I don’t think voters are “stupid” at all. They simply vary in their ability to understand science or to reject the propaganda in the MSM. They are also becoming more and more alienated from politics as their fight to pay bills and deal with family stresses takes up all their energy. This is to the advantage of hardline conservatives like Morrison.
As for the IUCN, it’s a question of international reputation, and Australia is slipping lower and lower as we destroy our environment. Of course an unemployed, homeless person is less likely to care, but neither do the well-heeled and comfortable.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/abc-to-grapple-with-budget-freeze-200-redundancies-expected-20191206-p53hnr.html
Bellwether – please ignore them.
You obviously know better.
Enjoying having your Party in Government?
Maude – just because someone disagrees with you doesn’t mean that they are ill-informed.
The 2019 Australian Election Study just been released.
https://australianelectionstudy.org/
Socrates says:
Monday, December 9, 2019 at 6:10 am
Morning all. Albanese doubles down on the 19th century policy push.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-says-australia-should-continue-to-export-coal-20191208-p53hyp.html
.Albanese states the bleeding obvious:
The Opposition Leader said other countries would fill the gap left by any halt to Australian coal exports, and so there would be no reduction of emissions.
It is a demand side problem.
Bucephalus,
“Maude – just because someone disagrees with you doesn’t mean that they are ill-informed.”
True, but the poll asked questions of fact:
For 60% to agree that Morrison has a vision for the country,
And
For the majority to agree Morrison is more experienced,
What else can you conclude but that those polled are ill-informed?
Maude Lynne
Or misinformed?
Nadler Says Trump Would Be Convicted By A Jury In 3 Minutes Flat
Nadler was asked on CNN’s State Of The Union if he felt comfortable that Democrats had proven their case against Trump. He answered, “We have a very rock-solid case. I think the case we have if presented to a jury would be a guilty verdict in about three minutes flat,
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/12/08/nadler-jury-convict-trump.html
Bucephalus @ #14 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 5:21 am
Very good to see a booster for the Authoritarian Conservative government of Scott Morrison has said that it’s okay to lie to cover your arse and keep it on the green or red leather in parliament and to have your PM mislead parliament as well in order to protect you.
Labor thanks you for the New Rules. 🙂
Also, I would like Buce to stand in the middle of one of NSW’s Many, many fires and say it’s all ‘Climate Change Alarmism’.
lizzie @ #28 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:52 am
Not even from Labor. The opposition.
It’s the Labor way.
lizzie @ #17 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 5:54 am
So, the Evos have moved on from Thoughts and Prayers to, Tea and Sympathy now?
lizzie @ #22 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:19 am
‘I don’t think voters are “stupid” at all. They simply vary in their ability to understand science or to reject the propaganda in the MSM.’
That’s right. The stupid one’s really struggle.
lizzie @ #28 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:52 am
Not even from Labor. The opposition.
Oh, and if ‘voters don’t care for the undergraduate level of politics’, why do they support Morrison? That’s what he’s all about.
Albo on the Bob Brown Convoy of Queensland wipeout….
“Climate change is real and is having a real impact on our natural environment. And that’s why we need to look at the actual impact on things as they are rather than as we want them to be,” he said.
Mr Albanese said the environmental “convoy” to Queensland during the election campaign hurt the climate change cause by offending voters, in a lesson about the need to unify those who wanted to act on climate change.
“It just didn’t show any respect for people who were just trying to provide an income for their families and for the community,” he said of the campaign, which was led by former Greens leader Bob Brown.
“You can’t change people’s views by screaming at them.
“It’s wrong to not treat people with respect regardless of where they live. And the convoy didn’t treat people with respect.
“Some of the people on the convoy were motivated by their concern about the natural environment and the impact of climate change, so they’re worthy of respect as well.
“It’s a two-way process, but it’s them who were choosing to go into a community.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-says-australia-should-continue-to-export-coal-20191208-p53hyp.html
Pegasus @ #1 Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 10:47 pm
As I predicted yesterday.
frednk,
For an engineer, Socrates doesn’t understand supply and demand very well, does he?
He also, like The Greens here, won’t admit that Labor won’t shed any tears when demand for coal dries up.
mundo must have tin ear, but if all you read is the Hobart Mercury, you would think like mundo that the Labor Party does not exist
Morning all
So are we to assume that the polls indicate the opposite as per the last three years prior to election when Labor was ahead until Election Day.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Ross Gittins asks, “Can the government and its econocrats battered credibility withstand one more set of economic forecasts based on little more than naive optimism?” Read this and weep!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/please-no-more-pollyanna-impressions-in-the-budget-update-20191208-p53hx0.html
And “At what point can we say a plan has failed? How much longer are we to be subjected to the fallacious belief that a budget surplus is the best sign of strong economic management?´ asks Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/dec/08/tax-cuts-fail-to-conjure-up-strong-economy-but-surplus-circus-rolls-on
This contribution from Sean Kelly is well worth reading. He’s not impressed with Morrison’s methods and motivations.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-think-we-re-waiting-for-pm-to-act-but-bigger-forces-are-at-work-20191208-p53hvb.html
The Berejiklian government is demanding more water be kept in NSW instead of flowing to the ailing river system. This is not going to end well!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-to-consider-tearing-up-murray-darling-agreement-20191208-p53hy3.html
The SMH editorial says that nothing about the past month’s apocalyptic conditions in NSW should come as a shock.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/grasping-for-solutions-as-we-gasp-for-clean-air-20191207-p53hsf.html
David Crowe explains the findings of the ANU’s study of the 2019 election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-least-popular-leader-since-1990-election-study-20191208-p53hz3.html
Michelle Grattan also has a look at the above study.
https://theconversation.com/voters-send-sharp-message-to-politicians-about-trust-anu-australian-election-study-128537
This special report in The Age explains the disgraceful efforts of one man to create and hide a huge toxic waste dump.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-man-who-made-a-toxic-waste-disaster-20191205-p53h1x.html
Evangelical churches believe men should control women. That’s why they breed domestic violence explains these contributors to The Conversation.
https://theconversation.com/evangelical-churches-believe-men-should-control-women-thats-why-they-breed-domestic-violence-127437
The Prime Minister doesn’t seem to be very concerned about fires and arsonists, although he does offer thoughts and prayers. On the other hand, he indulges his antediluvian obsession of stomping on the last vestiges of union power, and his novel Christian approach of holding innocent and sick people hostage indefinitely, and watching them slowly die writes Geoff Davies.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/priorities-delusions-and-governments-duty-of-care,13389
Clancey Moore writes that it’s time to dig out corruption in the resource industry.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/time-to-dig-out-corruption-in-the-resource-industry-20191205-p53hel.html
The world is saved! Pastor Brian Houston visits White House to sing and pray for President Donald Trump.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/12/08/brian-houston-white-house-visit/
Mike Foley explains how household electricity bills are tipped to fall by an average of $97, as the markets reap the benefit of new generation and the falling cost of renewable energy generation.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/household-electricity-bills-forecast-to-fall-20191206-p53hpp.html
Bob Carr has his say on climate change and inaction.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-sydney-circled-by-fire-could-never-have-hosted-the-olympics-20191208-p53hva.html
Shane Wright analyses the bleak outlook for retailers in Australia.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-christmas-retail-cheer-but-hopes-for-the-new-year-20191206-p53hlt.html
Littleproud has called for shoppers to boycott Coles over what he calls the supermarket’s “low act” of failing to pass on a levy for struggling dairy farmers. Surely not a secondary boycott!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coles-has-shown-its-true-colours-minister-blasts-supermarket-on-milk-drought-levy-20191208-p53hxx.html
Westpac has not completed a comprehensive external audit of how it manages risk in more than two years, with the last review finding the bank’s systems were only “partially effective”. Top effort!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/westpac-external-audits-flag-partially-effective-systems-20191208-p53hx9.html
Adele Ferguson doubles down on Grill’d and its founder. This time it’s about his forging of his partner’s signature in Liquor and Gaming licence applications.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/grill-d-co-founder-forged-details-on-liquor-licence-applications-20191208-p53hxz.html
Trump’s wall is causing all sorts of ructions in South Texas. Bir=t don’t worry, Jared Kushner’s in charge!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/these-texans-voted-for-trump-now-he-wants-to-take-their-homes-for-his-wall-20191209-p53i0s.html
Peter Dutton has created a scandalous two-year waiting period and exorbitant costs for partner visas – flouting the Migration Act – and this is likely to worsen. Former Immigration Department Deputy Secretary Abul Rizvi reports.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/duttons-partner-visa-scandal-set-to-continue,13390
Nick Miller reflects on his seven years as Fairfax’s Europe correspondent.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-stories-former-europe-correspondent-nick-miller-really-wanted-to-tell-20191202-p53fzs.html
According to some industry groups Australia is at risk of becoming a dumping ground for cars pre-charged with a greenhouse gas 1,400 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/09/australia-risks-being-dumping-ground-for-cars-with-greenhouse-gas-1400-times-more-potent-than-co2
Michael Koziol writes about Michal Kirby’s proposition that the children of today are not radical enough.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-s-wrong-with-kids-today-they-re-not-radical-enough-says-michael-kirby-20191206-p53hq7.html
Facebook is telling users that Islamophobic posts distributed through a clandestine network of far-right pages meet its “community standards”, despite revelations they are being used as part of a coordinated scheme profiting from hate and disinformation. The world is f****d!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/09/facebook-tells-users-islamophobic-posts-meet-its-community-standards-despite-investigation
It looks like NSW’s ICAC is undergoing a death of a thousand cuts. Lisa Visentin reports.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/smallest-icac-in-history-corruption-watchdog-warns-of-job-cuts-without-more-funding-20191205-p53h4g.html
As is the ABC.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/abc-to-grapple-with-budget-freeze-200-redundancies-expected-20191206-p53hnr.html
Tony Abbott has weighed into the British election, warning against a Labour victory.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/immigration-levels-will-be-cut-if-conservatives-win-boris-johnson-says-20191208-p53i0a.html
The Democratic chairman of the House judiciary committee, Jerry Nadler, has not ruled out including evidence from the Mueller report in articles of impeachment against Donald Trump that could be published as early as next week.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/dec/08/donald-trump-impeachment-inquiry-jerry-nadler-mueller-ukraine
Trump is the natural consequence of our anti-democracy decade writes Robert Reich.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/08/donald-trump-citizens-united-anti-democracy-decade
A shrinking poll leads making PM Boris Johnson nervous days before UK election.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/12/08/boris-johnson-uk-election/
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe gets this one right.
From Matt Golding
Three beauties from Mark David.
David Pope has Angus Taylor arriving in Madrid.
Zanetti.
The Australian’s Spooner puts the boot into the MDB’s environmental water flow.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/df4eecb2315e481b47a91b088829863f?width=1024
From the US
Lizzie,
Ill-informed or misinformed, or, in some cases, both.
There’s a lot of it about.
sprocket_,
Well, The Greens posters here show no respect for anyone who doesn’t agree with them. They get it back, due to the ‘what comes around, goes around’ maxim. Though, since Albanese’s speech on the weekend I have decided to be more respectful and let them get on with it how they choose to and not reply to any of it. 🙂
Evangelical churches believe men should control women.
That’s why there’s how many women left heading Public Service departments and in Scott Morrison’s inner circle? A token or two?
Beautifully done, BK!
C@t
I am rather worried about Albo’s “Let’s all be friends” attitude. He’s also giving tacit support to Fitzgibbon.
C@tmomma @ #46 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 7:31 am
The more you read about evangelical ‘christianity’ the more you’re left thinking that Scott Morrison must accept their absurd dogma which leads you to wonder why the hell is he Australia’s PM.
Terror at airports?