Essential Research: bushfires, climate change and asylum seekers

A new poll finds respondents clearly of the view that not enough is being done to tackle climate change, but with opinion divided as to whether it appropriate to debate the matter in the context of the bushfire emergency.

The Essential Research poll series continues to chug along on its fortnightly schedule without offering anything on voting intention, with this week’s survey mainly relating to bushfires and climate change. Support for the proposition that Australia is not doing enough to address climate change have reached a new high of 60%, up nine since March, with “doing enough” down five to 22% and “doing too much” down three to 8%.

However, perceptions of climate change itself are little changed, with 61% attributing it to human activity (down one) and 28% opting for “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”. On the debate as to whether it was appropriate to raise links between climate change and bushfires, opinion was evenly divided – out of those who considered such a link likely, 43% felt raising the matter appropriate compared with 17% for inappropriate, while another 30% rated the link as unlikely.

A further question related to the issue of medical evacuations for asylum seekers, and here the situation is murkier due to the need to provide respondents with some sort of explanation of what the issue is about. As the Essential survey put it, the relevant legislation allows “doctors, not politicians, more say in determining the appropriate medical
treatment offered to people in offshore detention”. Put like that, 62% were opposed to the government’s move to repeal it, including 25% who believed the legislation didn’t go far enough. That left only 22% in favour of the pro-government proposition that “legislation will weaken our borders and result in boats arriving”.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1083.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,314 comments on “Essential Research: bushfires, climate change and asylum seekers”

Comments Page 14 of 27
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  5. Further to my previous rant, it annoys me that with regard to severe changes in climate, some people talk of passing various tipping points with an attitude of “we just look up what that was like in the past and then adjust to it”.

    The reality is we have no idea how bad things might get if we not only pass various tipping points, but do so far more rapidly than the earth did in the past. The last time this happened our species was not around. How habitable was Australia then? We do not know – the whole continent was many km to the south in more southerly and cooler latitudes. For all we know climate change could result in most of Australia resembling north africa, desert and all. Tree-change might get replaced by sand-change.

  6. Bert:

    [‘My understanding is, it was introduced to compensate shift workers for the loss of their penalties while on leave. Somehow or other it grew to include all people eligible for annual leave after an uproar about “why do those people get this and we don’t?”but then again I’m probably wrong.’]

    That’s what I thought until I looked into it. It would appear that after a compromise with waterside workers in relation to a claim for an extra weeks leave, the loading spread like wildfire to all sectors of the workforce. I remember that public servants were the most vocal.

  7. Boerwar

    Yes that second one you posted is a much better definition. So we might be past the poitn where we melt Greenland, but we might not be past the point where we will melt the WAIS (west Antarctic ice sheet). One means a 7 metre sea level rise. The other means 20+ metre sea level rise. And who knows what change to our rainfall pattern?

  8. I agree with any who say that Federal Labor should concentrate on Morrison’s behaviour regarding the Taylor phone call.

    Fuller is a NSW public servant. Were he in the AFP the situation would be entirely different.

    Ironically, Morrison’s intervention could mean the NSW police will now have to do a proper investigation. Any hint of “nothing to see here” could create a political problem for Gladys.

  11. Bert

    Thank you for nudging my memory re it being shift work rather than plain overtime. Sounds like you heard the same ‘origin story’ as I did.

  12. E?

    Subset of D.

    Bark Beetle population no longer constrained by winter minima = billions of dead trees = changes in biota, fire behaviour and hydrology=further changes in fire behaviour, hydrology and biota =

  13. Bark Beetle population no longer constrained by winter minima = billions of dead trees = changes in biota, fire behaviour and hydrology=further changes in fire behaviour, hydrology and biota =

    … widespread temperate forest fires in Nth America and Asia.

  14. Dio

    A dead GBR is not a tipping point but an end point?

    The longer term change is that, as the Reef erodes and recedes further and further below sea level much of the Queensland coast becomes newly prone to a whole new oceanic energy regime. As in huge Pacific waves smashing into mud flats.

  15. Frednk
    “PeeBee if you look at the historic record we are actually not even close to being as hot as it was three million years ago. There were forests at the poles not because the poles have moved but because it was warm enough for there to be forests at the polls.

    The issue for us is the destruction of our coastal cities. the sea level was a lot higher and will be again.”

    Sort of right, but out of context, past climate change events (although dramatic in life of earth time scales) pale compared to the rates of CO2 accumulation and current temperature rise. At our current rate of temperature increase, there will be no lovely forests at the poles as there will not be long enough for the species to adapt to the changes, the mountain pine beetle is a classic example of this.

    There are many more issues than the destruction of coastal cities, in fact i would argue that is the least of humanities worries……

  16. From the Guardian politics blog:

    Today, the Greens MP and justice spokesperson David Shoebridge has referred the NSW police commissioner to the Law Enforcement Conduct Commission as a result of his disclosures to the prime minister, Scott Morrison, about an ongoing police investigation into the emissions reduction minister, Angus Taylor.

    citizen,

    I think you might be right about Morrison’s actions increasing the effort put into the investigation. I don’t imagine he plays chess.

  17. Diogenes @ #660 Thursday, November 28th, 2019 – 4:24 pm

    I’m not sure how some of those are tipping points eg the GBR

    GBR is a tipping point in that once a certain percentage of coral (or more correctly, biodiversity) is lost, the rest is guaranteed to be lost – i.e. it becomes discontinuous with warming.

    If we are not there yet, we are probably very close 🙁

  18. Sino/American relations take a nosedive:

    [‘The legislation, with near-unanimous support in the House and Senate, authorises sanctions on Chinese and Hong Kong officials involved in human rights abuses and requires the State Department to perform a new annual review of the special trade status that Washington grants Hong Kong.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/we-re-with-them-trump-signs-law-to-support-hong-kong-s-pro-democracy-protesters-20191128-p53exp.html

  19. jeff

    ‘At our current rate of temperature increase, there will be no lovely forests at the poles as there will not be long enough for the species to adapt to the changes, the mountain pine beetle is a classic example of this.’

    No adaptation is required for the tree line to move north. It is happening now.

  22. ‘jeff says:
    Thursday, November 28, 2019 at 4:38 pm

    Boerwar

    True but not fast enough…. if not being eaten killed off by beetles it is being burn’t to the ground’

    I assume that you don’t know what you are talking about so you are substituting guesses for the real thing.

  23. It was only a matter of time:

    [‘Today, the Greens MP and justice spokesperson David Shoebridge has referred the NSW police commissioner to the Law Enforcement Conduct Commission as a result of his disclosures to the prime minister, Scott Morrison, about an ongoing police investigation into the emissions reduction minister, Angus Taylor. Here is an excerpt of the referral:

    There are two significant concerns that arise as a result of this. This first is that Commissioner Fuller either knew, or reasonably ought to have known, that Prime Minister Morrison and Minister Taylor were close political colleagues. Given this, it was highly inappropriate for Commissioner Fuller to be disclosing any details of the police investigation into Mr Taylor to Prime Minister Morrison other than those that were on the public record. It goes without saying that Prime Minister Morrison has a vested political interest in the police investigation failing to find any misconduct by his Minister.

    The second significant concern arises from the personal relationship between Commissioner Fuller and Prime Minister Morrison and the fact that this relationship constitutes a clear conflict of interest on the part of Commissioner Fuller. This relationship includes, according to Commissioner Fuller, having been neighbours during which time Morrison would collect his rubbish bins for him. The exact nature of this relationship now appears to be contested by the two men in their very recent public debate.]’

  24. Socrates –

    The whole idea there is only one “tipping point” and we are past it (so there is no point stopping coal mining, or Adani) is yet another cynically false debating tactic invented by apologists for various parts of the fossil fuel industry. They have no ethics, and have no intention of stopping doing what is creating a monstrous problem.

    Ok, I’m on record here as saying there is no point in making a big deal about Adani or other coal mines – new or old – with respect to global warming.

    My reasons have nothing to do with tipping points or otherwise, so maybe I shouldn’t consider myself referenced in your … rant … above.

    But for what it’s worth, my reasoning is very simple: what matters is how much coal is burnt, not how many mines there are. Adani proceeding or not proceeding will make no material difference to how much coal is burnt/how much CO2 is released.

    Thus Adani, and all other coal mines, are a massive distraction.

    We have to be focusing on cutting the demand for coal and other fossil fuels. We have to rapidly move away from burning the stuff. Fiddling around with the supply will do nothing of any significance to reduce the amount of burnt coal etc. Hence Adani, and all the other mines new or old, are a distraction from what we actually have to do. If we properly tackle demand, the mines will naturally close. Fix the actual problem, not the merely symbolic.

    As a distraction from the most important political/social/economic tasks, I consider those who are baying about Adani in reference to climate change – at this time when we can’t even get a government that has an energy/emissions strategy of any substance – to be the ones who match your … description:

    They have no ethics, and have no intention of stopping doing what is creating a monstrous problem.

  27. Further to my post at 4:41 pm:

    All Morrison probably needed to do was to stand Taylor aside while the investigation is conducted. His stubbornness has, though, opened a can of worms.

  28. Boerwar

    “I assume that you don’t know what you are talking about so you are substituting guesses for the real thing.”

    Wow just wow, your arrogance is just breathtaking even for this forum
    The utter sh*te you spout here on a daily basis pretty much sums up your approach to the “real thing”

  29. Boerwar @ #669 Thursday, November 28th, 2019 – 4:34 pm

    ‘At our current rate of temperature increase, there will be no lovely forests at the poles as there will not be long enough for the species to adapt to the changes, the mountain pine beetle is a classic example of this.’

    No adaptation is required for the tree line to move north. It is happening now.

    Climatic zones are shifting upwards of 5km per year either north or south (i.e. away from the equator). Even if the resulting zones and/or land masses were always contiguous (they are not), there are very few tree species capable of migrating that fast. At least, not without help.

  30. I must admit that I had rather thought that tipping points were about positive feedback loops in the climate system.

    Thus, if enough of the Arctic ocean loses ice cover then enough additional energy is soaked up to speed global warming and the speeded up global warming will melt more ice.

    Ditto the northward movement of forests. Forests are darker and absorb more energy than ice/snow.

    Thus any impact on biota would only count if the changes to biota supercharge global warming in some way. Thus bark beetles count because by killing trees which then decompose and release CO2 into the atmosphere they speed up global warming. I am not aware that the GBR dying would speed up global warming.

  34. You happen to notice your neighbour’s garage is full of TVs, laptops, bikes, tennis equipment, running shoes etc. still in their original wrapping.

    You phone police to tip them off with a suspected Receive Stolen Goods situation.

    Three weeks layer you phone the Sergeant and ask him how the investigation is going. Have the police spoken to the neighbour yet?

    Sergeant tells you to mind your own business.

    So you ask his boss, the Inspector. He politely requests that you naff off.

    Up the chain you go to the Commissioner (who’s the 2nd cousin of a friend of a friend). He tells you it’s none of your business and, anyway, it’d be too minor a matter to bring to his attention. Also, it’s unethical to speak on a case that’s under investigation. Please get off the phone and don’t contact him again. It’s not worth his or anyone else’s job to deal with the public in this fashion, especially if the member of the public is not a victim.

    They are all correct.

  35. jeff @ #678 Thursday, November 28th, 2019 – 4:46 pm

    Boerwar

    “I assume that you don’t know what you are talking about so you are substituting guesses for the real thing.”

    Wow just wow, your arrogance is just breathtaking even for this forum
    The utter sh*te you spout here on a daily basis pretty much sums up your approach to the “real thing”

    But you’ll come back. Everyone always does. 🙂

  36. Dave Sharma is very strong on the “nothing to see here” line over Morrison’s behaviour. It’s all politicisation by Labor, you see. Nothing in his previous experience as a diplomat supports the fuss being made over a simple phone call.

  39. Isn’t it just delicious when hubris overcomes a politician and if only they had exhibited some self-control they could have managed a crisis just fine? 🙂

  40. Of course C@t

    I am on many forums, i love to spread knowledge on AGW even is some don’t want to listen. They can lie to their grand kids and tell them they didn’t know or understand!
    And besides i love hearing your accounts of the old ALP, brings me good memories and an understanding of goings on before i was old enough to understand! 🙂

  41. Boerwar @ #688 Thursday, November 28th, 2019 – 4:54 pm

    I could find no information on rate of tree line movements. I assume that there is some data on alpine tree lines. Not so sure about Arctic treeline movements.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_line#Arctic_tree_lines

    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0105380

    Plants and animals have responded to past climate changes by migrating with habitable environments, sometimes shifting the boundaries of their geographic ranges by tens of kilometers per year or more. Species migrating in response to present climate conditions, however, must contend with landscapes fragmented by anthropogenic disturbance. We consider this problem in the context of wind-dispersed tree species. Mechanisms of long-distance seed dispersal make these species capable of rapid migration rates. Models of species-front migration suggest that even tree species with the capacity for long-distance dispersal will be unable to keep pace with future spatial changes in temperature gradients, exclusive of habitat fragmentation effects. Here we present a numerical model that captures the salient dynamics of migration by long-distance dispersal for a generic tree species. We then use the model to explore the possible effects of assisted colonization within a fragmented landscape under a simulated tree-planting scheme. Our results suggest that an assisted-colonization program could accelerate species-front migration rates enough to match the speed of climate change, but such a program would involve an environmental-sustainability intervention at a massive scale.

  42. No wonder Scott Morrison doesn’t like doing the parliament thingy:

    Labor has put together what it says is the four times Scott Morrison has misled the house in the past 24 hours: Morrison’s misattribution of a radio talkback host quote to a Victorian police officer (which he wrote to the House and corrected), accusing Labor of gagging debate on veterans when it was about the Naif (although Phil Thompson did mention veteran suicides) claiming Labor voted against the second reading of the Defence Service Homes Amendment Bill (Labor voted for it) and then correcting the record by saying Labor voted against the third reading of that bill (when Labor voted for it).

  43. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, November 28, 2019 at 4:39 pm

    ‘jeff says:
    Thursday, November 28, 2019 at 4:38 pm

    Boerwar

    True but not fast enough…. if not being eaten killed off by beetles it is being burn’t to the ground’

    I assume that you don’t know what you are talking about so you are substituting guesses for the real thing.’

    1. How fast are Arctic tree lines moving?
    2. Where was the last fire at the Arctic tree line?
    3. Do bark beetles affect Arctic forests near the tree line?

    If you know the answers to these, please share them. If not, you are guessing. If you don’t like being criticized for guessing, don’t guess stuff. If you are called out for guessing stuff, abusing the caller-out doubles up on your initial callow behaviour.

    To the best of my knowledge neither bark beetles nor fires are an issue near Arctic tree lines. I am unsure of the rate of spread of various tree lines. Other people apparently know the answer to all these questions so I am curious to know the answers.

  44. Mavis
    As I said I believe it started with shift workers and then spread to everyone plus I think it started during Whitlams term. When I get time I’ll check out the awards from that time period. As an aside I’m pretty sure it was rail workers that were the first to receive it. The maritime and other unions came in at a later date, also shift workers were granted entitlement for 5 weeks leave instead of the usual 4.

  45. Player one
    Re: Player One says:
    Thursday, November 28, 2019 at 4:57 pm
    “….however, must contend with landscapes fragmented by anthropogenic disturbance. We consider this problem in the context of wind-dispersed tree species. Mechanisms of long-distance seed dispersal make these species capable of rapid migration rates. Models of species-front migration suggest that even tree species with the capacity for long-distance dispersal will be unable to keep pace with future spatial changes in temperature gradients….”

    Oh this must be what Boerwar meant when accusing me of:
    “I assume that you don’t know what you are talking about so you are substituting guesses for the real thing.”
    I am happy for you to apologise at any time Boerwar

  46. jeff @ #690 Thursday, November 28th, 2019 – 4:56 pm

    Of course C@t

    I am on many forums, i love to spread knowledge on AGW even is some don’t want to listen. They can lie to their grand kids and tell them they didn’t know or understand!
    And besides i love hearing your accounts of the old ALP, brings me good memories and an understanding of goings on before i was old enough to understand! 🙂

    Said with tongue firmly in cheek, eh?

    I could relay some Communist Party stories from the 1930s if you like, from the time when my grandfather was a member. That should appeal to a Green. 🙂

  48. Boerwar @ #693 Thursday, November 28th, 2019 – 5:00 pm

    To the best of my knowledge neither bark beetles nor fires are an issue near Arctic tree lines.

    Do you think bush fires are purely an Australian phenomenon? …

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49125391

    Wildfires are ravaging parts of the Arctic, with areas of Siberia, Alaska, Greenland and Canada engulfed in flames and smoke.

    Satellite images show how the plumes of smoke from the fires, many caused by dry storms in hot weather, can be seen from space.

    While wildfires are common at this time of year, record-breaking summer temperatures and strong winds have made this year’s fires particularly bad.

    They are now at “unprecedented levels”, says Mark Parrington, a wildfires expert at the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (Cams).

  49. So you agree with the need to put a price on carbon?

    *weary sigh* Yes, P1, I’ve told you that a few times before, the last time less than 24 hours ago:

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/11/27/essential-research-bushfires-climate-change-asylum-seekers/comment-page-8/#comment-3292220

    ETA: 3rd last paragraph given that you obviously didn’t bother reading it last time (quoting myself, now, whoo hoo):

    diverting scant political will from the actual task at hand which is to get the Australian government to do everything in its power to reduce our greenhouse emissions through promoting renewables, pricing carbon, stopping land clearing, whatever it takes, and to work constructively internationally to promote similar action around the world.

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