Bellwether forecast

More Labor MP departure scuttlebutt; Morrison down and Albanese up on Essential’s monthly leadership ratings; and a YouGov Galaxy poll gives a thumbs up for drug tests for welfare recipients.

Plenty of fascinating electoral/political action going down at the moment – in Britain. Adrian Beaumont has the latest on that in the post below. Back home though, just the following:

• Following last week’s chatter surrounding Mark Dreyfus, another round of “speculation” concerning the future of a federal Labor MP: this time Mike Kelly, who has a precarious hold on the former bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro. According to Renee Viellaris of the Courier-Mail ($), Kelly is “frustrated he is not opposition defence spokesman”, and has been telling colleagues he has been “offered a job based in Australia for a Silicon Valley firm”. Even more strikingly, unidentified Nationals have put it to Viellaris that John Barilaro, who leads the state Nationals and holds the corresponding seat of Monaro, is hoping to contest the seat with a view to deposing Michael McCormack as federal leader, and that Kelly is more than comfortable with the idea.

• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll once again has nothing to say on voting intention, but does feature the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These record negative movement for Scott Morrison, who is up down two on approval to 47% and up two on disapproval to 38%, and positive movement for Anthony Albanese, who is respectively up four to 40% and down two to 29%. Similarly, Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is at 42-28, narrowing from 46-25. The poll also features a semi-regular question on the attributes of the major parties, which are discussed in general terms in the report – hopefully Essential will publish full results later today. Essential’s website has further results on attitudes to family violence, which are of sociological interest (older respondents were considerably more likely to take a broad view of what constituted family violence) but have little to offer the party politics obsessive.

• The Daily Telegraph ($) had a YouGov Galaxy poll last week showing 70% support for “a federal government trial for unemployed people newly claiming Newstart or Youth Allowance to undergo drug testing and for those who test positive being put on an income management program involving a cashless welfare card”, with only 24% opposed. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,774 comments on “Bellwether forecast”

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  3. A R @ #99 Wednesday, October 16th, 2019 – 11:19 am

    I hear the proposal is for Ireland to be de jure subject to UK customs law but de facto subject to EU customs law.

    The EU is crazy to offer this, and Parliament should kill it dead. If they don’t, I expect Johnson to immediately tell the EU to fuck off with their “de facto” jurisdiction just as soon as the deal becomes official.

    Slightly different take on that here.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/boris-johnson-close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions

    It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. A similar arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.

    Either way, I can’t see the DUP (and others) agreeing to a border in the Irish Sea, no matter how it is described.

  4. the latest Essential Research poll once again has nothing to say on voting intention

    Is there any news on YouGov’s attempt to professionalise polling practices in Australia? (Apologies for the unintended alliteration.)

  5. @ricklevy67
    ·
    1h
    @ConeBayBarra Is The Only Barramundi I Buy. It Is Salt Water Barramundi . If The Restaurant Or Fish & Chip Shop Can Not Tell You Where It Comes From Don’t Buy It. 90% In Coles Woolies & IGA Is Farmed In Asia . Australian Fresh Water Farmed Barra Is Crap

    Sixty per cent of all barramundi consumed in Australia comes from overseas and half the fish-eating population, according to new research, has no idea.

    “Because it’s such an Australian name, people don’t even consider that it might be imported,” said Meredith Lawley, a marketing professor from the University of the Sunshine Coast.

    But the nation’s naming laws prevent reclaiming the title of ‘barramundi’ as an Australian fish — fish of the same species must be called the same name when sold.

    “The intent was to make it easy for consumers. But in the case of barramundi it’s actually worked against consumers,” Dr Lawley said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-16/do-you-know-where-your-barramundi-comes-from/11585426

  6. I pray for a leader who is not delusionally asking for magic sky pixies to intervene instead of acting and is not so deluded to think that this sort of comment is not going to freak out the 40% of Australians who have no religious affiliations as well as many who tick a religion in the census but don’t practice (and watch the number of declared catholics/christians drop at the next census following the royal commission).

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-opens-up-about-his-faith-says-we-should-pray-more?fbclid=IwAR0tQZbi_UL9rsGuiavIsP4aZghQvzLPBDHa3JWSgZmEaL8rSb94sIdgQGM

  7. Rex Douglassays:
    Wednesday, October 16, 2019 at 12:26 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #100 Wednesday, October 16th, 2019 – 12:20 pm

    Is she still spurning your advances Rex?

    Her loss…

    I don’t know.

    He record suggests she doesn’t suffer fools easily.

  8. “Speaker Pelosi rips Trump for violating his oath of office: ‘All roads seem to lead to Putin’”

    I think she is on the money with this. the Ukraine and Syrian decisions have served russian interests, not the USs.

    The question is, is Trump getting paid of blackmailed to cooperate? I suspect the latter – Putin likely has smoking gun evidence of collusion, other corruption, and/or the pee pee tapes ready to release when it will most hurt trump and the US (& if so, we’ll see it at some point), but in the meantime can get donald to jump as high as he is told. I recall Trump’s deflated body language after he and Putin had their first private meetings soon after trump was sworn in – I think that is when the donald got told how things were going to be run. Putin will be thinking “What will damage the US more? – an impeached and imprisoned President now or another four years of Trump, with impeachment and imprisonment at the end of that?” I think he’ll opt for the latter after getting trump to further weaken NATO, divide the US, and wreak havoc on the global economy and civility in general.

  10. I just tuned into the Press Club and the journos seem to be getting stuck into GetUp with pretty biased questions. Maybe I missed the good bits.

  12. The scary thing is that Morrison is truly capable of doing anything, if his government electoral fortunes decline. For example; before the Christchurch shooting, there was news that the government was preparing for a Trump style race baiting election campaign.

    Plus there are signs that the ‘Climate Emergency’ is starting to radicalize the electorate. That is why I believe that electoral annihilation is possible for Labor in 2022. Because they are seen going down on the path of being seen as ‘sitting on the fence’ on the issue. Declaring a climate emergency to me while well intentioned is meaningless, if not accompanied meaningful action.

    By the way, I had serious doubts, that Labor would win the 2019 regardless of the leader, throughout the term of the last government. If I had known more about Morrison before the election, I would argued that the Coalition would win the election.

  13. Snapshot from the series of Ray Jones’ photos in today’s Guardian. (That you again BW.) I’m posting because it struck me that these boys (or boys like them) are currently in charge in Britain.

    Eton, how to run a country.

  15. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, October 16, 2019 at 1:06 pm

    Barney in TB,
    Who is ‘she’?

    Rex’s latest fantasy, Emma Husar.

  16. [‘It never ceases to surprise me that a prime minister so ready to proclaim his Christian faith is so hard of heart when it comes to people on benefits (age pensioners excepted).’]

    Good to see this meme (in this case Ross Gittins) being propagated. Morrison’s a slimy piece of work and a hypocrite to boot, his Trump-like antics wearing thin.

  23. KayJaysays:
    Wednesday, October 16, 2019 at 1:35 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #115 Wednesday, October 16th, 2019 – 1:29 pm

    Snap KayJay.

    Yea. Having short break in my nanny nap.

    So, even sleep doesn’t dim your wits. 🙂

  25. There is a myth pushed by conservative supporters that they have some sort of mandate (translate approval) for everything mentioned in the election, because they won. Especially with their energy non-policies.

  27. “The scary thing is that Morrison is truly capable of doing anything, if his government electoral fortunes decline. For example; before the Christchurch shooting, there was news that the government was preparing for a Trump style race baiting election campaign.”

    yep – and with the few remaining wets with any principles about this gone from the party, there will be nothing to stop this – the Dutton-Morrison doctrine of using hate will reign. Nationalism, xenophobia and hatred towards ‘elites’ (i.e. anyone daring to criticise them) will be all they have as the economy tanks and they will use these savagely. Trump has shown the way for right wing governments, and even if he goes, this is their future template for winning and holding government. The LNP will get wiped in Vic and possibly SA, but will do well in other states with this approach.

  30. Tasmanian health minister Micheal Ferguson call climate change protesters “extremists”
    He is a member of the Exclusive Brethren, an extremist Christian cult
    How incredibly interesting
    #auspol

  42. Katharine Murphy @murpharoo
    ·
    2m
    The government’s policy, Morrison says, is to remain calm. Which will be fine if calm turns out to be the correct response. Less fine if the correct response in retrospect was more stimulus #qt

  44. Go, Amy.

    Scott Morrison is now reading from a hand written answer for this lickspittle, which is an achievement, given it covers the entire government manifesto.

  45. “ Klobuchar – Buttigieg ticket anyone?

    lol – would poll 35% and give Trump 45 of the 50 states.”

    Given that most of the large urban based states with at least 220 electoral college votes are ‘a lock’ for the Democrats, this comment is risible.

    Both of those candidates would do very well in purple Midwest states and could – I put it no higher than could – do well in the rust belt and maybe even some sunbelt states.

    There are two intractable problems however: firstly this ticket is a bit too ‘white bread’, not just because of the race of the candidates but also more importantly because neither have any real track record of working with the two biggest racial minority bloc votes – Hispanics and Blacks. Neither demographic would necessarily be opposed to Amy or Pete, but they also may not be especially motivated to come out and actually cast a vote for them.

    The second problem is that neither candidate looks like securing enough support amongst registered democrats (and independents in states that permit them to vote in primaries) to secure the nomination.

  46. Jim Chalmers to Josh Frydenberg:

    My question is to the Treasurer, why does the Treasurer pretend the global factors are the primary reason for our floundering economy, when the Reserve Bank and others say Australia’s weak economic growth is homegrown?

    Frydenberg:

    YOU TAKE EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO TALK DOWN THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY.

    We are back to yelling. And also, describing the economy as a snowflake.

    Labor don’t have to. The government is doing a great job without their help.

  48. Mavis, this guy is fascinating in the same way as a bizarre disease. I’ve read about this “chap” before but his entertainment value is worth repeating. From your link,

    while canvassing for the seat in Fife, was driven around in a Mercedes by his nanny.‘I was going to take my Bentley, but she wisely said that this would be seen as ostentatious and I should take Mummy’s Mercedes instead.’

    …and 20 odd years later he’s in charge of the UK Commons.

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