Bellwether forecast

More Labor MP departure scuttlebutt; Morrison down and Albanese up on Essential’s monthly leadership ratings; and a YouGov Galaxy poll gives a thumbs up for drug tests for welfare recipients.

Plenty of fascinating electoral/political action going down at the moment – in Britain. Adrian Beaumont has the latest on that in the post below. Back home though, just the following:

• Following last week’s chatter surrounding Mark Dreyfus, another round of “speculation” concerning the future of a federal Labor MP: this time Mike Kelly, who has a precarious hold on the former bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro. According to Renee Viellaris of the Courier-Mail ($), Kelly is “frustrated he is not opposition defence spokesman”, and has been telling colleagues he has been “offered a job based in Australia for a Silicon Valley firm”. Even more strikingly, unidentified Nationals have put it to Viellaris that John Barilaro, who leads the state Nationals and holds the corresponding seat of Monaro, is hoping to contest the seat with a view to deposing Michael McCormack as federal leader, and that Kelly is more than comfortable with the idea.

The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll once again has nothing to say on voting intention, but does feature the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These record negative movement for Scott Morrison, who is up down two on approval to 47% and up two on disapproval to 38%, and positive movement for Anthony Albanese, who is respectively up four to 40% and down two to 29%. Similarly, Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is at 42-28, narrowing from 46-25. The poll also features a semi-regular question on the attributes of the major parties, which are discussed in general terms in the report – hopefully Essential will publish full results later today. Essential’s website has further results on attitudes to family violence, which are of sociological interest (older respondents were considerably more likely to take a broad view of what constituted family violence) but have little to offer the party politics obsessive.

• The Daily Telegraph ($) had a YouGov Galaxy poll last week showing 70% support for “a federal government trial for unemployed people newly claiming Newstart or Youth Allowance to undergo drug testing and for those who test positive being put on an income management program involving a cashless welfare card”, with only 24% opposed. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,774 comments on “Bellwether forecast”

Comments Page 1 of 36
1 2 36
  1. ‘Worst nightmare for the White House’: CNN reporter says latest impeachment testimony has left GOP scrambling

    During an interview with host Brooke Baldwin, Gangel said that the White House is particularly dreading any future testimony provided by former national security adviser John Bolton, who reportedly denounced Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani’s shadow campaign to pressure Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden as a “drug deal.”

    “I would be surprised if he wasn’t asked to testify, and this has to be the worst nightmare for the White House,” she said. “He did not leave on good terms and was a firsthand witness to a lot of this that was going on.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/worst-nightmare-for-the-white-house-cnn-reporter-says-latest-impeachment-testimony-has-left-gop-scrambling/

  2. Rudy Giuliani’s own attorney is leaving just two weeks after being hired

    With just two weeks on the job, an attorney for Rudy Giuliani is reportedly already parting ways with his client.

    Earlier this month, Giuliani tapped former Watergate prosecutor Jon Sale to head up his legal team.

    “He 100 percent did not do anything illegal,” Sale insisted at the time.

    CNN reporter Erica Orden revealed on Monday that Sale would no longer be working for Giuliani. No additional details were immediately available.

    Sale’s departure was announced soon after Giuliani said on Tuesday that he would not comply with subpoenas from House Democrats.

    Earlier this week, Giuliani’s business partner resigned from their security company.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/rudy-giulianis-own-attorney-is-leaving-just-two-weeks-after-being-hired/

  3. It’s About To Get Even Worse For Trump As Public Impeachment Hearings Are Coming Soon

    Rep. Jackie Speier (D-CA) says Democrats have five or six more witnesses to hear from in their investigation, and then public Trump impeachment hearings will begin.

    As bad as this story has been so far for Trump, it is about to get a thousand times worse. Impeachment hearings will grab the nation’s attention, and if the Clinton impeachment, which happened before social media, is any indication, it will take over all political conversation.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2019/10/15/trump-public-impeachment-hearings.html

  4. Trump’s impeachment barricade crumbles

    Key witnesses are ignoring Trump and delivering bombshell testimony in Democrats’ Ukraine investigation.

    Donald Trump’s impeachment blockade has collapsed.

    It’s the latest evidence that the White House’s stonewalling against congressional requests for documents and testimony is crumbling — and Democrats are feeling a new sense of momentum.

    “Thank you to patriots like @realDonaldTrump appointee Fiona Hill who chose to ignore the obstruction from Trump and gave testimony to Congress today,” said Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.). “The truth will keep coming out. And Trump cannot stop it.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/15/donald-trump-impeachment-ukraine-investigation-046915

  5. The revenge of John Bolton?

    As evidence builds in House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry, signs keep pointing to Bolton, who has not yet been scheduled to testify. But in Bolton, House Democrats have a potential witness with a trifecta of utility: (1) Proximity to the alleged scandal, (2) motivation to tell his story and, perhaps as important as anything, (3) a true-believer mentality.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/15/revenge-john-bolton/

  6. Good morning all.

    Kelly’s margin, .9%, would be covered by his personal standing in the electorate. If Kelly resigns one of the four remaining large state regional seats would fall to the Coalition.

    This would leave the large state regional seat tally: 28 Coalition, 3 Coalition-leaning Indies, Labor 3. It would increase Morrison’s political authority. It would politically validate conservative culture war stands. It would politically validate all the drought porking.

  7. Russia is using videos of American soldiers fleeing Syria as propaganda, according to Fox News.

    “Other video from inside the abandoned U.S. base in Manbij, Syria, taped by Russian reporter traveling with Russian-backed forces shows how quickly U.S. troops abandoned the base,” Griffin continued. “In fact, Russian mercenaries appear to be using the videos as propaganda to show the American retreat. The significance of that American base now effectively under Russian control.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/russian-backed-mercenaries-using-videos-of-americas-hasty-retreat-in-syria-as-propaganda-fox-news/

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The IMF has sharply downgraded forecasts for the Australian economy for this year and next, as evidence mounts the Morrison government’s personal income tax cuts are not being spent by cautious consumers who are trying to get on top of their mortgages. Shane Wright says our economy is growing at a slower rate than in Greece! No doubt the Ad Man and Mr Shouty will be in full flight today.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-economy-tipped-to-grow-slower-than-greece-as-signs-show-tax-cuts-haven-t-worked-20191015-p530uv.html
    Yet Morrison still rejects the calls for economic stimulus.
    https://outline.com/BcPBh5
    Judith Ireland tells us how Anglicare has shot holes in the government’s “a job is the best form of welfare” mantra. Anglicare’s research shows that for every available low level job there are five job seekers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/simple-mathematical-fact-report-finds-lack-of-jobs-for-unemployed-20191015-p530pt.html
    And Ross Gittins reckons politicians too poor at their jobs to fix poverty.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/politicians-too-poor-at-their-jobs-to-fix-poverty-20191015-p530rq.html
    A government jobs program for long-term unemployed is taking an average of five years to find people work, the Anglicare report has found.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/10/16/jobs-shortage-newstart-failing/
    Katharine Murphy looks at the entrails of the latest Essential poll.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/16/more-than-60-of-voters-approve-of-major-parties-performance-essential-poll
    David Crowe reports that GetUp will escalate its fight with Prime Minister Scott Morrison by accusing him of being an “authoritarian populist” who tries to shut down his critics, naming three campaign priorities to take on his government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/getup-gets-stuck-in-to-populist-morrison-government-20191015-p530yt.html
    Rob Harris writes that Albanese has vowed to hold the Morrison government to account over its record on climate change, but says a decision on his party’s emissions reduction targets won’t be made until closer to the next election. Gun shy?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-stalls-on-making-climate-commitment-as-party-moves-on-climate-emergency-20191015-p530zh.html
    It gets worse for Mascot Towers apartment owners.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/mascot-towers-at-risk-of-structural-failure-as-new-cracks-emerge-20191015-p530xs.html
    The government has refused to address multiple claims taxpayers have been ripped off by the way it has rolled out the much-maligned national broadband network reports Isabelle Lane.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2019/10/15/telstra-nbn-cost/
    Michael Koziol explains the schism developing in the Anglican Church over same sex marriage.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/please-leave-us-archbishop-tells-same-sex-marriage-supporters-to-abandon-anglican-church-20191015-p530tk.html
    Meanwhile the Uniting Church has offered to conduct pill testing on its grounds as a NSW coroner calls for it to be rolled out at music festivals ahead of summer.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/major-christian-organisation-offers-to-conduct-pill-testing-on-church-grounds-20191015-p530vw.html
    The SMH editorial says that NSW sadly seems further than ever from a rational policy to stop drug-related deaths of festival-goers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/time-for-a-different-approach-to-music-festival-deaths-20191015-p530xr.html
    The problems in the mortgage market are well known and the latest ACCC inquiry make any new discoveries, says the Productivity Commission’s Stephen King.
    https://outline.com/SyMjnf
    Simon Crean has lashed the US decision to pull out of Syria, arguing it gives the green-light to an Islamic State revival while sending a message to America’s allies they will be treated as “fair-weather friends”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fair-weather-friends-simon-crean-lashes-us-on-syria-withdrawal-20191015-p530uc.html
    With the Federal Court ruling that there were “no reasonable grounds” for the 2017 union raids, Labor has called for the Registered Organisations Commission to be shut down.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/michaelia-cash-afp-union-raids-and-ensuring-integrity-legislation,13205
    Michelle Grattan writes about Alan Jones’ on air berating of Morrison over the drought.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-alan-jones-v-scott-morrison-on-the-question-of-how-you-feed-a-cow-125303
    And Sam Maiden describes how Jones broke down in tears during the tirade.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/15/alan-jones-scott-morrison-drought/
    Michael Pascoe opines that Australia’s long-established bipartisan approach to relations with our biggest trading partner China is at breaking point.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/14/paul-bongiorno-china/
    According to Elizabeth Knight it looks like retail broadband telcos are on a mission with a new message: stop the government-owned wholesale supplier, NBN Co, from encroaching on their turf.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/telstra-and-nbn-co-in-turf-war-over-business-customers-20191015-p530we.html
    The government is waving a big stick at the energy companies and big banks with great enthusiasm – just with very limited practical effect. But that’s not the political point says Jennifer Hewett.
    https://outline.com/gyZxF2
    The Guardian reports that music festivals, cemetery upgrades, public toilets and a virtual gym are among the hundreds of projects to ­receive federal grants under the government’s signature Drought Communities Program. Surely this will get a run in QT today.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/16/drought-funding-used-for-music-festivals-cemetery-upgrades-and-a-virtual-gym
    The CPSU wonders if the new Services Australia is a real service delivery redesign or just window dressing.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6428349/services-australia-a-real-service-delivery-redesign-or-window-dressing/?cs=14350
    George Pell’s lawyers have accused Victorian prosecutors of ‘mischaracterising’ the cardinal’s appeal.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/15/george-pells-lawyers-accuse-prosecutors-of-mischaracterising-cardinals-appeal
    Nations are struggling to agree on how international carbon trading should work under the Paris accord. A weak result would undermine global efforts to fight climate change.
    https://theconversation.com/double-counting-of-emissions-cuts-may-undermine-paris-climate-deal-125019
    Paul Karp reports that state and territory anti-discrimination commissions have revolted against the Coalition’s religious discrimination bill, warning it privileges religion over other rights and will cause “significant disruption” by overriding state laws.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/15/coalitions-religious-discrimination-bill-condemned-by-state-and-territory-commissions
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons explains why hiring predominately on the basis of “cultural fit” can undermine diversity, professionalism and merit.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/why-hiring-for-cultural-fit-is-a-mistake-20191015-p530ws.html
    Reviews have been mixed about Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s cameo as a water boy in a rugby league international in Fiji on the weekend writes Dave Donovan.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/scott-morrison-attracts-praise-and-criticism-after-fiji-water-boy-appearance,13209
    Katie Burgess reports that the Australian Electoral Commission has drastically increased its spending on external contractors, after using labour hire companies to boost back-end staff for the last federal election for the first time. It has also repeated its warning that its funding in-between elections is too low, and posed an “ongoing risk” to its operations.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6437028/electoral-commission-spends-big-on-contractors/?cs=14350
    Agitation is growing over bureaucratic delays in pushing ahead with important lifesaving car technology, autonomous emergency braking, as the “silent epidemic” of road crash trauma puts around 100 Australians in hospital every day.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6427515/why-are-drivers-waiting-so-long-for-a-lifesaving-technology/?cs=14225
    Australia is facing a looming cyber emergency, and we don’t have the high-tech workforce to counter it warns Professor Greg Austin.
    https://theconversation.com/australia-is-facing-a-looming-cyber-emergency-and-we-dont-have-the-high-tech-workforce-to-counter-it-124776
    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party members are fundraising to attend their own AGM and plotting to expel Hanson as president, and Ashby from the party altogether. Ha ha!
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/phon-members-fundraise-to-attend-agm–oh-and-to-topple-hanson-and-ashby,13207
    People on the cashless debit card (CDC) are still able to gamble and buy alcohol, drugs, cigarettes and pornography because a potential loophole in the system allows them to use credit cards without detection while they are on income management.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/15/cashless-welfare-card-loophole-allows-use-of-credit-cards-without-detection
    “Why should Turkey play by the rules when Donald Trump doesn’t?”, asks lawyer Rebecca Barber.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/why-should-turkey-play-by-the-rules-when-donald-trump-doesn-t-20191015-p530rw.html
    Boris Johnson appears to be on the brink of reaching a Brexit deal after making major concessions to EU demands over the Irish border. But will the DUP accept the complicated arrangement?
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/boris-johnson-close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions
    But any Johnson Brexit deal sows seeds of future confrontation with the EU warns Rafael Behr.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/15/johnson-brexit-deal-confrontation-eu-britain
    Democrats have continued their whirlwind investigation of Donald Trump yesterday as another witness testified before Congress, building momentum towards a likely impeachment of the president.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/15/trump-impeachment-inquiry-george-kent-hunter-biden
    These two guys certainly deserve nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”!
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/queensland/only-a-monster-could-have-done-this-dv-victim-wants-cop-behind-bars-20191014-p530m3.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir with Barnaby’s cry for help for Assange.

    From Matt Golding



    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/5aa67077cd8b2cc48207ecf7484af3532869a4f0.jog


    Andrew Weldon and some perspective.

    Zanetti is in his usual form.

    Jon Kudelka takes a well-aimed kick at Labor.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/af46df799db64511f292f8d0f4f5ac53?width=1024

    From the US










  9. Cat

    I think the tax cuts were about greasing palms 🙂

    While Labor made some mistakes in campaign messaging, at this point it is entitled to start asking whether Australia would have been better off under Labor. Having passed the tax cuts Labor did not act the spoiler. This is all on Scomo.

  10. Socrates @ #16 Wednesday, October 16th, 2019 – 7:21 am

    Cat

    I think the tax cuts were about greasing palms 🙂

    While Labor made some mistakes in campaign messaging, at this point it is entitled to start asking whether Australia would have been better off under Labor. Having passed the tax cuts Labor did not act the spoiler. This is all on Scomo.

    Yes, Labor’s vow of strategic silence now seems smart. Instead of being seen as rectionary for the sake of it, now they have the weight of evidence on their side when they come out and make a criticism of the Morrison government. And it seems as though more people are giving a tick to Albanese because of it, if Essential’s ratings are to be believed.

  11. Yet Morrison still rejects the calls for economic stimulus.

    Because to do so would be to validate Labor’s methods. Morrison is functionally incapable of that.

  12. They worry a lot about the way unscrupulous payday lenders take advantage of people with pressing debts and no money, greatly deepening the hole they’re in. Legislation to crack down on such lenders was introduced to Parliament in March last year, but has yet to be passed.

    This is the first time I have realised this. We think the good deed has been done, but this lazy lot has made an art form of doing nothing. Oh, forgot, defeating Labor in an election was far more important.

  13. If crossing the Canada/US border can lead to such heavy punishment, why is it not marked strongly so that there can be no mistake?

    All seven members of the London family were arrested when Michael, who was driving, took a detour to avoid an animal in the road and crossed into the US without realising it. They remain in detention awaiting deportation to the UK amid fears for the welfare of the three children involved.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/15/uk-family-arrested-in-us-for-inadvertently-crossing-border?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX01vcm5pbmdNYWlsQVVTLTE5MTAxNQ%3D%3D&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=MorningMailAUS&CMP=morningmailau_email

  14. The snake oil salesman, no chooks in my backyard, raised in Sydney’s Eastern suburbs, selective government school educated, third reserve PM from aspirational white man central enclave and a sharks supporter is finding all the inspirational christian rhetoric falling apart five months into his accidental tenure, which no amount of sympathetic fourth estate jingoism can support, wishing parliament could be adjourned indefinitely.
    Morrison might survive Christmas and be done before another budget.
    We are told everyday how many jobs are created but not told that these jobs aren’t keeping pace with jobs needed and hence the escalating unemployment and under employment.
    The NBN is a white elephant. The GBR is a history topic and the the rivers and dams remain empty of fish, water and empathy.
    The gap between the rich and poor is now measured in light years with a nation’s economy dangling by a teetering thread of wishful real estate inflation.
    The taps of good fortune don’t run without maintenance and accurate planning, completely divorced from scaremongering and fraud.
    Bill Shorten is looking a tad more realistic to just a few disenchanted.

  15. @JaneAlcorn
    Apparently Dutton plans to tell parliament that all medevaced refugees are now in community detention. They are not. Most, almost all, remain in immigration detention, waiting for medical appointments.

  16. The IMF has sharply downgraded forecasts for the Australian economy

    The IMF? Where the bloody hell are they? Meh – Negative Globalism.
    The IMF should try some Morrison style confidence trickster techniques. Bluff and bluster. It works for him – how good is that! Get on board, IMF, you negative global hipster lefty greenies.

  17. Kath Sullivan (ABC Rural)
    @KathSully
    ·
    8m
    Expecting the @NationalFarmers will sign off on a document that makes recommendations to government on Drought policy today, before it is handed to minister Littleproud. The NFF document won’t be made public just yet.

  18. We are all (almost) hacks. Pundits and peddlers of easy opinion on topics and news that many pay little attention to.

    But this picture hit me. Giving 7 hours of evidence in an impeachment inquiry cant be easy – even for a hardened adviser like Hill.

    This picture and the ones of Ford in the Kavanagh confirmation. Non politicians caught up in politics… making decisions on right and wrong that could haunt them forever.

  19. ‘Unctuous insincerity’. Boy am I going to remember that one when it comes to Scott Morrison and his slimy government.

    Thank you, John Crace. Your words about Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson so easily translate to our own government:

    Since joining the cabinet, lying has become second nature to the leader of the house. Power has corrupted him and what integrity he might once have had is now shot. Everyone knew that Saturday’s possible emergency session was entirely dependent on whether Johnson agreed to desperately negotiate himself back to a permanent Northern Ireland backstop with a customs border in the Irish Sea – the prime minister is one of the few people who could haggle the price up in a carpet shop – to give himself a deal on which the Commons could vote and save him the embarrassment of having to “die in a ditch” by writing an extension letter to the EU.

    But time and again Rees-Mogg argued otherwise. “Oh, no, no, no, no,” he said, chuckling to himself while oozing unctuous insincerity. “The honourable member had referred to ‘running a bath’ when surely he meant ‘drawing a bath’.” Weirdly, Rees-Mogg labours under the impression that this kind of bantz is clever. One can only imagine he rewatches his greatest hits on the BBC’s Parliament channel alone at night in a state of mild sexual arousal. Whatever gets you off.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/rees-moggs-dim-brand-banter-entertains-no-one-but-himself

  20. BB,

    I saw your post on liquid metal batteries at the end of the last thread. This type of tech is being commercialised now.

    Local company Vast Solar do concentrated solar thermal with sodium as the working fluid and NaCl as the storage medium. Using NaCl as the working fluid has too many challenges – think pillars of salt.

    Then there is 1414 Degrees, who use molten silicon as a thermal battery. They are ASX listed.

    Don Sadoway’s point “make it dirt cheap, make it from dirt” is spot on, which is why I’m backing the solutions above and batteries like bromide-zinc and zinc-air to take off. In Australia, we have our own equivalents of Sadoway, in Thomas Maschmeyer and Maria Skyllas-Kazacos.

  21. Did Moody’s predict the Democrats winning the House in 2018 I wonder?

    And I seem to remember Moody’s having a terrible record in Australia.

  22. Officeworks general manager gets it in one:

    “Wage inflation has been very, very low, and for some people hasn’t occurred at all. And bills are going up, despite the fact that interest rates are lower. The reality is that there’s a lot of things in your daily purchasing and weekly and monthly purchasing that are running above inflation,” she said. “So there’s pressure, and it’s tight. And we are seeing more customers look for value options.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-economy-tipped-to-grow-slower-than-greece-as-signs-show-tax-cuts-haven-t-worked-20191015-p530uv.html

  23. As I’ve said before, Democrats excel at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

    Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    6h6 hours ago
    The fact that the Democrats aren’t on rhe air and in digital hammering the living fuck out of Donald Trump right now with paid advertising boggles my goddamn mind

    Tom NicholsVerified account@RadioFreeTom
    2h2 hours ago
    Clarifying my earlier comment: I’ve heard several Dems and Trump *opponents* take the “Joe should come clean and explain everything” position. I’m gobsmacked. This violates the first rule of “if you’re explaining, you’re losing.” Don’t do it.

    Expect tonight’s debate to clear the Trump chaos from the news cycle for the next few days because one of them will say something ridiculous that plays to Republican narratives about Democrats.

  24. @vanbadham
    ·
    6m
    Will conservative columnists who denounced the Australian arts community as “grant-dependent tax sucklings” hurl equal vim at rural communities who spend drought money on music festivals? Funded culture is for “stupid luvvies”, I recall.

  25. If crossing the Canada/US border can lead to such heavy punishment, why is it not marked strongly so that there can be no mistake?

    A quick stroll on Google Maps shows that they were probably driving along 0 Ave on the Canadian side of the border – and there are very few parallel roadways on the US side of the border. “Swerving to avoid an animal in the road” doesn’t add up.

    “CBP officials disputed the family’s version of events and said the Connors were spotted via video surveillance “slowly and deliberately driving through a ditch onto Boundary Road in Blaine, Washington” between parallel roadways on the U.S. and Canadian sides. The roads are not connected by cross streets, and the only legal way to traverse between the countries is at staffed border stations throughout the region.”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/us-officials-say-british-family-illegally-crossed-border-from-canada-on-purpose/2019/10/15/e184cc68-ef7f-11e9-b648-76bcf86eb67e_story.html

  26. lizzie

    I am optimistic. I take the high black turnout in Montgomery Alabama by black voters as a good sign for the General. Turnout continues to be high after 2018

    That means Trump loses. I have no doubts the GOP is going to have high turnout. The point is that the Democrats need high turnout. Their base is bigger as long as they turnout. All the signs are the Democrats are going to turn out.

    Some Texas GOP House members have already retired. So the GOP is at LNP levels of expectations. We just have to hope we don’t get a repeat of the Morrison winning despite expectations even from his own party for Trump.

  27. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/religious-freedom-may-help-gay-conversion-daniel-andrews/news-story/5775f1c24f8b81fd06b653aa6fdf6c1e

    Victorian Labor has warned the draft religious freedom bill could jeopardise its bid to outlaw gay conversion therapy in the state.

    Premier Daniel Andrews revealed the state has made a submission to the Federal Government’s Religious Discrimination Bill 2019, and raised concerns the federal legislation could hamper Victoria’s ability to prevent gay conversion therapists operating, because practitioners could claim their religious freedoms were being curtailed.

    “We made a commitment we would ban this terrible practice, a practice that underpins self harm and suicide and all manner of terrible outcomes,” Mr Andrews told ABC radio.

    The following is (I hope) the type of information that must not be revealed to my flat earth (never met a conspiracy I didn’t endorse) son in law.

    But what if it were possible for empathy to be transplanted? There are many problems to be overcome – firstly identifying those who are empathy rich – then identifying the psychopaths and sociopaths who would benefit from such a transplant.

    The next problem is how to have the intended recipient aware of the requirement. I suggest a modest seed fund of about $444 million should be a starter in such a quest. This modest starter pack could be included in the standard rips off identified in the BK files today.*
    An announcement of a society wedding would yield a rich vein of assholes patients (from guest list) for whom the nation would rejoice at the change. Identifying “crocodile tears” practitioners is another source.
    This project will be known as the “Road to Damascus Enlightenment” universal niceness precipitator.

    This is a work in progress. As a starter list I suggest a quick glance at “The Australian” article bylines today would be inspirational.

    *The Guardian reports that music festivals, cemetery upgrades, public toilets and a virtual gym are among the hundreds of projects to ­receive federal grants under the government’s signature Drought Communities Program. Surely this will get a run in QT today.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/16/drought-funding-used-for-music-festivals-cemetery-upgrades-and-a-virtual-gym

    Over. ☮☕
    E*OE

  28. C@tmomma @ #17 Wednesday, October 16th, 2019 – 6:31 am

    Yes, Labor’s vow of strategic silence now seems smart. Instead of being seen as rectionary for the sake of it, now they have the weight of evidence on their side when they come out and make a criticism of the Morrison government.

    Nah, they’ll never be able to undo the tax cuts for high earners and big businesses. Trading a policy failure for the ability to make evidence-based criticisms isn’t a good play in today’s hyper-partisan political arena.

    Wrong or not, the general public doesn’t care if political criticisms are supported by evidence or not anymore.

  29. Jon FavreauVerified account@jonfavs
    5h5 hours ago
    Right-wing billionaires are out there building the most effective propaganda machine in history while progressive billionaires are throwing money away on a primary they’ll never win.

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/shari-redstone-explores-plan-launch-fox-news-competitor-1247475?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=THR%20Breaking%20News_now_2019-10-15%2010:12:11_ehayden&utm_term=hollywoodreporter_breakingnews

Comments Page 1 of 36
1 2 36

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *