Bellwether forecast

More Labor MP departure scuttlebutt; Morrison down and Albanese up on Essential’s monthly leadership ratings; and a YouGov Galaxy poll gives a thumbs up for drug tests for welfare recipients.

Plenty of fascinating electoral/political action going down at the moment – in Britain. Adrian Beaumont has the latest on that in the post below. Back home though, just the following:

• Following last week’s chatter surrounding Mark Dreyfus, another round of “speculation” concerning the future of a federal Labor MP: this time Mike Kelly, who has a precarious hold on the former bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro. According to Renee Viellaris of the Courier-Mail ($), Kelly is “frustrated he is not opposition defence spokesman”, and has been telling colleagues he has been “offered a job based in Australia for a Silicon Valley firm”. Even more strikingly, unidentified Nationals have put it to Viellaris that John Barilaro, who leads the state Nationals and holds the corresponding seat of Monaro, is hoping to contest the seat with a view to deposing Michael McCormack as federal leader, and that Kelly is more than comfortable with the idea.

The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll once again has nothing to say on voting intention, but does feature the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These record negative movement for Scott Morrison, who is up down two on approval to 47% and up two on disapproval to 38%, and positive movement for Anthony Albanese, who is respectively up four to 40% and down two to 29%. Similarly, Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is at 42-28, narrowing from 46-25. The poll also features a semi-regular question on the attributes of the major parties, which are discussed in general terms in the report – hopefully Essential will publish full results later today. Essential’s website has further results on attitudes to family violence, which are of sociological interest (older respondents were considerably more likely to take a broad view of what constituted family violence) but have little to offer the party politics obsessive.

• The Daily Telegraph ($) had a YouGov Galaxy poll last week showing 70% support for “a federal government trial for unemployed people newly claiming Newstart or Youth Allowance to undergo drug testing and for those who test positive being put on an income management program involving a cashless welfare card”, with only 24% opposed. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,774 comments on “Bellwether forecast”

  1. Davidwh says:
    Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 9:02 pm
    I doubt the Coalition won in 2013 due to the popularity of TA. Despite his lack of popularity would be more likely.

    ——————-

    It is still interesting that the Libs/nats combined primary vote has been declining since Abbott has been ousted

  2. Scott probably the most important stat is that since 2010 the primary vote of the two majors has fallen 10%. Its a reflection of the ongoing loss of faith in our two party system.

  3. Mavis
    In the lead up to the game there were reports of team mutinies and insurrections in progress. Which worried me about my selection of Wales to win. For most normal teams such internal ‘kaboom’ is death but for the French it has been the signal to go out and kick arse totally . They damned near did it again.

  4. Unfortunately Lib Dem MPs and centrist Labour MPs would rather preserve Johnson’s power and allow Brexit to go ahead than vote no-confidence in him, install Corbyn as an interim PM who arranges a second referendum, legislate the result of the second referendum, and then vote for a general election. They really should do that if they have the courage of their pro-EU convictions but they don’t. They are so petty that they cannot abide Corbyn as caretaker PM for a few months. For these centrists it is all about The Feels, not the substance of what they claim to want.

  5. poroti:

    [‘…but for the French it has been the signal to go out and kick arse totally.’]

    Exampled by Vahaamahina’s red card? I wasn’t going to view tonight’s match, but encouraged by a friend, I did. I’m glad I did.

  6. UK Labour have been holding back on moving No Confidence in Johnson cos they would lose. This would be self-defeating. Labour is in enough trouble without humiliating themselves in the Commons. The SNP can easily move No Confidence. It’s win/win for them. No matter what happens, they will derive a benefit in Scotland wrt both Labour and the Tories. The SNP is a ‘centrist’ outfit if ever there was one.

    The Lib-Dems, Tory rebels and DUP detest Labour and in particular they thoroughly despise Corbyn. They have the B-o-P. Their resentments have nothing to do with ‘centrism’. This is tribal and is about partisan advantage. The Lib-Dems are accumulating Remainer support. They will profit as long as Johnson holds power and Labour are seen to be ineffectual. They will lose if Corbyn is promoted.

    The only hope for Corbyn and Labour is an even deeper and wider split in the Tories. This is not on the cards.

  7. C@tmomma :

    [‘Mumbo jumbo anyone?’]

    I think it’s a case of enjoying drag. If I was so stupid to choose a religion, I’d opt for Lutherism.

  8. Some big electric car do in Adelaide today. State members of the liberal party, the one that 6 months ago was railing about confiscated utes, etc, etc, wetting themselves & predicting electric universality in 50 years or so.

  9. The idea that the DUP might depose Johnson and install Corbyn is nonsense. Likewise, the Tory rebels will not install Corbyn though they might coalesce behind a Tory rebel. The Lib-Dems are gaining from the stalemate. They will try to extend it. Their best bet is that Remainer voters will rally to them and abandon Labour. This is probably a forlorn hope. If Johnson goes to an election with Leaver support and Brexit under his belt, it would be very likely that Remainers would stay away from the polls, allowing the Tories to sweep the Commons. Brexit will be the crowning act of the Reactionaries.

  10. If the Labour PV declined and the LNP Pa declined, and the Green PV was static, where do the moving PV go?

    To the Right.

    Disaffection is mobilising the Right.

  11. It was evident on May 19 that the vote for the duopoly parties was at a record low. Is it only on PB that partisans pissing in each other’s pockets and ignoring the actual results appears to reign supreme? Until a few months later it seems.

  12. Quoll says:
    Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 9:51 pm

    It was evident on May 19 that the vote for the duopoly parties was at a record low. Is it only on PB that partisans pissing in each other’s pockets and ignoring the actual results appears to reign supreme? Until a few months later it seems.

    Well, I for one have not been ignoring the results. Of course, at a federal level we do not have a 2 Party system. The LNP have a virtual monopoly on power. They win nearly all the time. There are Libs everywhere and they excel at winning federal elections. Australia is run by the Right.


  13. RI says:
    Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 9:29 pm
    …..

    The only hope for Corbyn and Labour is an even deeper and wider split in the Tories. This is not on the cards.

    Corbyn could save himself the humiliation and resign.

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