Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

No change at all on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which records a mixed bag of movements on the leaders’ personal ratings.

The Australian reports absolutely no change on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which is now appearing predictably on a three-weekly schedule. The Coalition continues to lead 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 33%, Greens 13% (maintaining a four-year high) and One Nation 6%. Scott Morrison is steady on 47% approval and up two on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese’s ratings continue to yo-yo, with approval down two to 37% and disapproval up four to 44%. Despite that, Morrison’s lead as preferred minister is now at 47-32, narrowing from 50-31. The field work period was presumably Thursday to Sunday, and the sample presumably between 1600 and 1700. UPDATE: The sample was 1634, consisting of 953 online and 681 automated phone poll surveys, the latter breakdown still being the only concession offered to greater transparency since the election.

Note also below this post Adrian Beaumont’s latest on Brexit and Canada.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Liberal,Senator Hollie Hughes running interference and whataboutism to try to knock Kitching of her line of questioning on Robodebts to dead people

  2. Boerwar:

    [‘How thick are thieves?’]

    First to explain this idiom:

    [‘This idiom originated in the 1800s’. At that time, thieves often worked together in gangs and were extremely close, telling each other everything and completely relying on each other. ‘Thick’ in this case means ‘very close’ or ‘closely packed’..,’]

    Second, Morrison singled out Houston in his maiden speech. To suggest that the former failed to inform the latter of his invitation to the White House is utterly incredulous. That Morrison would try it on reinforces the notion that he’s one sneaky, lying cretin. Labor must milk this for all it’s worth.

  3. – – Kitching now probing on how many Robodebts were issued to dead people, and finds 73 dead people’s estates had to cough up the debt. – –
    Death Tax!

  4. I suspect Rowe was targetted by MAGA morons given his focus on Trump. Thankfully the deep-fried Twinkie crowd have little sway with the editors at the AFR.

  5. nath:

    [‘Any chance we can get rid of Kitching and robodebt?’]

    Agree, Albanese refusing to support her pre-selection, no doubt for good reason.

    Robodebt, well that stands for reason.

  6. Kimberly Kitching compared with Rachel Siewart shows the gulf of intellectual and analytical attributes between who the parties put up to the Senate.

  7. sprocket_ @ #1076 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 8:37 pm

    Senator Siewart is thick as two planks

    The Greens seem to attract them like flies. I’m just back from a LEAN meeting and we had one of them there. Because LEAN lets anyone who is concerned about the environment join, she turns up and rabbits on and on and on and on, even interrupting the guest speaker, to go on and on and on again! We put a stop to it at Human Rights! 🙄

  8. Are cracks emerging in the araldited support Republican Senators have thus far shown to the President?

    The HillVerified account@thehill
    3h3 hours ago
    No. 2 GOP Senator John Thune warns that the “picture coming out of” Ukraine diplomat’s testimony is “not a good one'” http://hill.cm/dFYyMux

  9. Confessions @ #1111 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 10:07 pm

    Are cracks emerging in the araldited support Republican Senators have thus far shown to the President?

    The HillVerified account@thehill
    3h3 hours ago
    No. 2 GOP Senator John Thune warns that the “picture coming out of” Ukraine diplomat’s testimony is “not a good one’” http://hill.cm/dFYyMux

    It’s not quite, ‘What Trump did is definitely an Impeachable offence’, but it’s getting warmer. 🙂

  10. C@t:

    McConnell’s refusal to back Trump’s account of a conversation he supposedly had with Moscow Mitch was an interesting development. Now their No. 2 Senate leader is demurring.

  11. C@tmomma
    says:
    she turns up and rabbits on and on and on and on, even interrupting the guest speaker, to go on and on and on again!
    __________________________
    Sounds truly awful. I know many who feel the same way. My sympathies.

  12. Confessions @ #1114 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 10:31 pm

    C@t:

    McConnell’s refusal to back Trump’s account of a conversation he supposedly had with Moscow Mitch was an interesting development. Now their No. 2 Senate leader is demurring.

    Yep, moving at the pace of a turtle but McConnell is moving in the right direction. Problem is, at the merest whiff of the tide turning in Trump’s favour again he will back off.

  13. Wow! White Supremacist media organ, The Daily Caller, does fact checking for facebook and Mark Zuckerberg has had dinner with their principles!! AOC definitely has an office that knows how to do its research.

  14. 😀

    Andy OstroyVerified account@AndyOstroy
    10m10 minutes ago
    Evolution of Repub Party: Treason is…

    *despicable
    *dishonorable
    *unAmerican
    *punishable by death
    *confusing
    *might sometimes be ok
    *probably not even a crime
    *is ok if we do it
    *is necessary during elections
    *is justified if it’s @realDonaldTrump

    #Trump

  15. You really have to laugh and gape in horror at the sanctimony of the letter Angus Taylor sent to Clover Moore, and it’s utter hypocrisy when you consider how much air travel has been undertaken by Scott Morrison, simply in the time since he has been Prime Minister:

    On the Sunday night before publication of the Telegraph’s story, the council spokesman tried desperately to convince the Telegraph its story was wrong. Moore’s staff had not yet seen Taylor’s letter.

    It was waiting for them in the office the next morning.

    Taylor’s letter began by outlining how the government had a comprehensive set of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, before telling Moore: “You might be interested to know that there are many practical ways local councils can take real and meaningful action to reduce their carbon emissions.

    “One way was to limit unnecessary air travel,” he said, before quoting the erroneous figures.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/23/doctored-documents-angus-taylor-news-corp-climate-clover-moore

    Sorry, but I have just been catching up on the detail of this story after a busy day.

  16. AOC reduced The Zuck to a quivering mess of contradictions, making the danger of his company’s grotesque amount of power plain for all to see. We need hundreds of AOCs in the House and Senate to get the government moving in the right direction.

  17. “One way was to limit unnecessary air travel,” he said, before quoting the erroneous figures.

    One wonders if similar ‘helpful’ advice is offered to Coalition MPs in rural and regional electorates.

  18. Anyway, reading between the lines of The Guardian’s reporting of the genesis of the document, if, as Taylor is protesting in parliament, neither he nor anyone in his office doctored the City of Sydney Annual Report document, then it must have been done by someone outside his office and passed on to him to use.

  19. Nicholas
    says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 11:05 pm
    AOC reduced The Zuck to a quivering mess of contradictions, making the danger of his company’s grotesque amount of power plain for all to see. We need hundreds of AOCs in the House and Senate to get the government moving in the right direction.
    ____________________________
    I’m not so sure. I just caught the bit SK posted and they both seemed to be doing well against each other there.

  20. Angus Taylor is on the front page of the Australian with no credit to the Guardian. Andrew Bolt apparently has attacked him too.

    I am going on tweets. I don’t read the Australian

  21. Has anyone ever made the recommendation to the AEC that on the Saturday while voting is occurring that all the Pre-poll and postal votes (received to date) get counted in a secure facility and then get loaded immediately polls close at 6 pm?

    Maybe not that exactly, but just today there’s this:

    A possible solution was to start counting earlier than 6pm on election days in future, (the AEC) said. This would “allow the AEC to provide a more comprehensive and earlier indication of [results] following the close of polls”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lurid-and-outlandish-australian-electoral-commission-slams-critics-20191023-p533n6.html

  22. A possible solution was to start counting earlier than 6pm on election days in future, (the AEC) said. This would “allow the AEC to provide a more comprehensive and earlier indication of [results] following the close of polls”.
    ______________________________
    As long as the information was somewhat drip fed from the AEC after 6pm. We wouldn’t want it all over at 6:15 after a big dump of data would we?

  23. There is no need to know the result on the evening after polls close. The electoral commission should take the time to ensure that every ballot is counted and try not to lose too many of them ever again.

  24. adriansays:
    Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 7:10 pm

    lizzie @ #1047 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 7:03 pm

    adrian

    Not sure whether you’re mocking me, but Katie Allen is a newish Liberal MP who always starts off interviews with wtte I’ve only just arrived on the set so I haven’t read it.

    No, not at all. Just showing my ignorance after I half heard some ABC reporter on PM try to minimise the Taylor affair.

    Follow up question from a well versed interviewer.

    So, what have you read since being elected?

    Followed by a grilling on that subject. 🙂

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