The Australian reports absolutely no change on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which is now appearing predictably on a three-weekly schedule. The Coalition continues to lead 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 33%, Greens 13% (maintaining a four-year high) and One Nation 6%. Scott Morrison is steady on 47% approval and up two on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese’s ratings continue to yo-yo, with approval down two to 37% and disapproval up four to 44%. Despite that, Morrison’s lead as preferred minister is now at 47-32, narrowing from 50-31. The field work period was presumably Thursday to Sunday, and the sample presumably between 1600 and 1700. UPDATE: The sample was 1634, consisting of 953 online and 681 automated phone poll surveys, the latter breakdown still being the only concession offered to greater transparency since the election.
Note also below this post Adrian Beaumont’s latest on Brexit and Canada.
Once we would forensically analyse movements like this, but no credibility whatsoever
Base on previous news poll result Labor is one poll closer to winning the next election.
The lack of bounciness is a concern.
Stuff me, the electorate has yet to identity the flimflam man.
Yay! Labor are ahead on Newspoll! 😐
Does that mean that if Morrison wins 30 consecutive NewsPolls he should be replaced?
Nicholas Kristof:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/19/opinion/sunday/trump-turkey-military.html
And if it displeases you to read about this stuff, too bad.
Dotard knows the Greens peel off a percentage of the progressive vote – he must have had someone summarise the Senate investigation into the 2016 election for him.
Mavis says:
Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 10:13 pm
Stuff me, the electorate has yet to identity the flimflam man.
Did the assumptions move or the numbers not move.
The margin of error on a well-conducted poll with a sample size of 1600-1700 is about 2.5%. I wouldn’t read anything much into the preferred PM stats.
My thoughts on NewsPoll.
#NewsPoll should publish their sample weightings, demographics, state breakdowns and preference flows – to begin to restore some credibility. With each poll, not quarterly in arrears.
And get someone different to analyse. Simon Benson with his bias fits well in the Holt St Bowling Club.
Back of the envelope calculation:
Labor 2PP = 33 + 11 (from 13 Green) + 2 (from 6 PHON) + 3 (from 6 OTH) = 49. Seems reasonable, but as David says, lack of bounciness is a problem.
Steve777 @ #12 Sunday, October 20th, 2019 – 10:34 pm
On the other hand, with Morrison’s Better PM rating down a statistically significant amount, we can take some comfort in that. Even if it is essentially a beauty contest.
What’s going on at the SmearStralian? Gone all Bolshie on us? Tomorrow’s front page.
Ok, so the dead tree cabal is coordinating their outrage..
Suspected jounalists rounded up and detained on a small island.
“What are they covering up”
Lets all have a co-ordinated look at the appointments to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal with a wide coverage of its role, its appointees and the renumeration of these appointees.
Steve777 says:
Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 10:34 pm
Back of the envelope calculation:
Labor 2PP = 33 + 11 assumption (from 13 Green) + 2 assumption (from 6 PHON) + 3 assumption (from 6 OTH) = 49 rubbish. Seems reasonable, but as David says, lack of bounciness is a problem.
The margin of error on a well-conducted poll assumption, remember the random selection bit with a sample size of 1600-1700 is about 2.5%it is not for a binary selection. I wouldn’t read anything much into the preferred PM stats. Without the methodology published it is just a random number published by the murdoch rags.
Rick Wilson and thoughts on Trump re-election
DEFDON 1: Trump has more reason than ever for genuine alarm
We live in a time of hard partisan division. Some Republicans will again swallow hard and pull the lever for him, especially if the Democrats offer someone to the left of Lenin. His diehard defenders and political dead-enders will be there until the last dog dies.
But as Americans witness more and more of Trump’s petty corruptions and massive internal failures, sustaining the illusion on which the 2016 victory was built gets more difficult by the day.
MUCH MORE : http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-defdon-1-20191020-joxasiaxhzhpplveowtvgh2rta-story.html?outputType=amp
These are the people whom Dutton insists are there to “keep us safe”. How can we trust him?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/21/home-affairs-officials-left-scrambling-over-7m-strategic-review-that-didnt-exist?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1571592061
Finally, an article in the mainstream media that scratches the surface on what is, what has always been (since European colonial times) and always will be the No.1 environmental issue for this continent. One which as a nation is wholly within our power to address & not reliant on coordinated global action (and which will be the No.1 best thing we could do to assist in addressing that global issue).
This people. THIS! Glue yourself to the road during commuter peak hour about this, and I might even take you seriously. …
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/21/talk-about-bullies-how-2gbs-ben-fordham-campaigned-for-farmers-charged-with-illegal-land-clearing
This people. THIS! Glue yourself to the road during commuter peak hour about this, and I might even take you seriously. …
+1
But wouldn’t it be better if they glued themselves to trees that the chainsaws were coming for?
Oh wait, that’s not anywhere near their homes in the Inner City. There’s no media around for easily accessible coverage of their antics. And it’s not Performance Arty enough. 😐
So where did the $7 Million for the Home Affairs Strategic Review go!?!
Hillary Clinton creates fake letter from JFK to mock Trump’s absurd one to Turkey
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has taken up a new hobby of trolling President Donald Trump on Twitter.
The grandmother of three excelled in her sarcasm and stepped up her shade Sunday afternoon by releasing a fake letter from Former President John F. Kennedy to former Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev.
Hillary Clinton ✔ @HillaryClinton
Found in the archives…
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/hillary-clinton-creates-fake-letter-from-jfk-to-mock-trumps-absurd-one-to-turkey/
There are ads on TV for #RightToKnow as well. I saw them on The Block last night.
https://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/fashion/where-do-your-old-clothes-go-when-you-don-t-want-them-any-more-20191011-p52zve.html
“But just as car owners accept that their mechanic charges them a fee to responsibly dispose of old oil or tyres, so too must consumers acknowledge there is a cost involved in disposing of textiles thoughtfully.”
News blackout over press freedom
Newspapers across the country carry heavily redacted front pages today, as part of a campaign to protest against laws restricting freedom of the press. The initiative, which includes an advertising campaign as well as news articles, opinion pieces, and editorials ($) across major news outlets, highlighted dozens of pieces of legislation ($) which have made it harder to report on issues of public interest. The campaign advocates for six reforms to protect media freedoms, including the right to challenge warrants issued for police raids on journalists ($), and stronger protections for public sector whistleblowers. The rival media outlets joining forces for the campaign include the ABC, The Guardian, Nine, News Corp Australia, Prime Media, Seven West Media, Sky News, SBS, Ten, and the WIN Network. On Sunday Labor Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese called on the Morrison government to rule out prosecutions of News Corp journalist Annika Smethurst and ABC journalists Dan Oakes and Sam Clark, who were targeted by police raids in June. “People should not be charged for doing their job,” he said. Federal Attorney-General Christian Porter said he would be “seriously disinclined” to sign off on the criminal prosecution of public interest journalism, but qualified that he could not give any guarantees.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/thebriefing/max-opray/2019/10/21/news-blackout-over-press-freedom
“So where did the $7 Million for the Home Affairs Strategic Review go!?!”
On water matters…
It’s filed next to the Drought Envoy’s report…
Secret Liberal mates business…
“ There are ads on TV for #RightToKnow as well. I saw them on The Block last night.”
It’s good to see our diverse media (well, there are a whole 3 main conglomerates. Count them: 3!) getting on board for the crucial #YourRightsAtWork campaign … oh wait …
Ah hem …
It’s good to see our truly awesome, factually rigorous, non biased media titans getting behind the crucial #TruthInMediaReportingAndCommentary campaign … oh dang it!
…
So this particular # thingy jig might be a tad … self interested …
Well one might say that the MSM is getting their dose of the nasty authoritarian bully boy. Why don’t they just roll over and stay on the PMO drip? … I’m predicting that after a little tantrum THAT is exactly what they’ll do. Ruprick will send the word out “you’ve had your fun, now earn your keep: repeat after me: ‘ScoMo is awesome. Labor bad. Very bad’.”
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It seems that the AFR is now blocking access to Outline for many of its articles.
Ross Gittins declares that Scott Morrison’s surplus obsession is hurting the economy and that his problem is that he gets politics – and is good at it – but doesn’t get economics. When will the penny drop I wonder?
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/scott-morrison-s-surplus-obsession-is-hurting-the-economy-20191020-p532de.html
But according to David Crowe Frydenberg is now saying it’s not time to panic with stimulus, rather it’s to push for “reforms”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/treasurer-rejects-stimulus-push-defends-reform-plan-20191020-p532go.html
The Australia Institute’s Ebony Bennett says that Morrison’s government is spinning its wheels.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6447167/morrisons-government-is-spinning-its-wheels/?cs=14258
A company that puts people’s lives at risk and a CEO involved in market manipulation couldn’t be published due to weak whistleblower protections laments Adele Ferguson.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/a-dodgy-ceo-an-energy-company-threatening-lives-who-are-they-20191020-p532d7.html
Dwindling water supplies in towns such as Armidale and Tamworth threatens to sap population growth in regional NSW and add to Sydney’s congestion as the drought takes a deepening toll on the economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/day-zero-water-supplies-in-regional-towns-will-impact-on-sydney-s-population-20191020-p532hg.html
Meanwhile Peter Hannam reports that the Coalition government in NSW ignored multiple warnings since 2012 from a key planning agency that the state prepare plans to cope with the risk of droughts and longer-term climate change.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/asleep-at-the-wheel-nsw-government-ignored-years-of-water-warnings-20191020-p532e4.html
And irrigators have slammed the Murray-Darling Basin Authority for releasing images of farm dams filled with water in drought-affected parts of the state, likening the move to the controversial Aussie Farms activist website.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/19/irrigators-slam-murray-darling-basin-authority-satellite-images/
Amy Remeikis tells us about Home Affairs officials being left scrambling over a $7m strategic review that didn’t exist!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/21/home-affairs-officials-left-scrambling-over-7m-strategic-review-that-didnt-exist
Caitlin Fitzsimmons writes about the push to substantially increase the support of mental health through Medicare.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/do-it-properly-push-to-double-the-number-of-mental-health-sessions-on-medicare-20191010-p52zhp.html
Joanne McCarthy, who has plenty of skin in the game, writes that Morrison is yet to answer legitimate questions about his reported attempt to have Hillsong leader Brian Houston invited to the White House. He has unfinished business in reckoning with church abuse she says.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/pm-has-unfinished-business-in-reckoning-with-church-abuse-20191020-p532f1.html
Lisa Visentin and Alexandra Smith look at what’s going on at ground level in the NSW ALP before the big internal review kicks off.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/red-hot-anger-as-hundreds-of-labor-members-attend-emergency-meetings-20191018-p531xn.html
Adele Ferguson reveals that the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency’s criminal offences unit is investigating a number o companies over clear orthodontic teeth straightener providers, amid claims of discounts to preferred dentists that are not disclosed to customers and social media influencers spruiking products in breach of the law.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/investigation-launched-into-marketing-of-clear-teeth-straighteners-20191018-p5324l.html
Australians are being urged to heed new warnings about the cost of government secrecy in a united campaign by the nation’s biggest media companies that calls on Parliament to enshrine press freedom and protect whistleblowers.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/campaign-for-the-right-to-know-fights-the-darkness-20191020-p532gq.html
And Allan Fels has also warned that increased government secrecy has created a greater need for whistleblowers but warned the people who expose bad behaviour among big institutions were at risk of intimidation and financial loss.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/wall-of-secrecy-former-accc-tsar-says-transparency-vanishing-20191020-p532e1.html
Lenore Taylor trumpets that concrete action rather than nice words are needed on press freedom.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/oct/21/concrete-action-rather-than-nice-words-are-needed-on-press-freedom
The SMH editorial says that the ‘right to know’ campaign is not just for journalists.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/right-to-know-campaign-not-just-for-journalists-20191020-p532dy.html
Kate McClymont joins the argument, saying, “There is an old saying that a journalist is only as good as his or her sources. So what happens to journalism, to the public’s right to know, when our sources become too terrified to speak to us?”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/when-sources-are-too-scared-to-come-forward-20191020-p532fl.html
Recent actions by the Australian government and its agencies regarding media freedom resemble those of an authoritarian regime writes human rights lawyer and barrister Jennifer Robinson.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/press-freedom-under-threat-from-national-security-law-spree-20191020-p532f8.html
Michaela Whitbourn tells us that NSW may follow the lead of Victoria and Tasmania in amending sexual assault laws to make it clearer that saying or doing nothing does not amount to consent.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/plan-unveiled-to-strengthen-sexual-consent-laws-in-nsw-20191020-p532d4.html
While some electricity players are arguing for a switch to a “capacity” market where plant owners are paid to have generators on standby, Alinta Energy has suggested the maximum price cap in the wholesale market of $14,700 a megawatt-hour be more than doubled to spur investment in new peaking plants.
https://outline.com/CZRFsx
Babcock & Brown sank in a sea of debt during the Global Financial Crisis, soon leaving $70 billion of assets around the world up for grabs. Its rail business in WA went to the then little known Canadian financier, Brookfield. And Brookfield has made a killing, closing down 2,100k of narrow gauge track, funnelling profits offshore and forging a 280 per cent return, even tapping the government for grants. Michael West reports on the Brookfield’s buying spree.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/house-of-cards-is-brookfield-the-next-babcock-brown/
The Conversation tells us how the Coalition government is (again) trying to put the squeeze on the ABC.
https://theconversation.com/the-coalition-government-is-again-trying-to-put-the-squeeze-on-the-abc-122037
Sam Maiden writes that Clive Palmer has lashed Labor’s calls for new spending caps on election expenditure despite revealing he spent more than the Liberal Party and Labor Party combined, with the spend-a-thon likely to reach $70 million.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/20/clive-palmer-labor-election-spending/
Amy Remeikis writes that Labor will home in on the fact that the government has spent just $2.2m of a $3.5bn infrastructure fund designed to tackle ‘immediate priorities’.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/21/labor-to-grill-coalition-on-delays-and-underspending-on-key-infrastructure-projects
The Medevac legislation, a fairly small gesture of Parliament in what is otherwise Australia’s part monstrous, part indifference to refugees, has been on the shooting range of the Morrison government since it won office in May this year says Binoy Kampmark.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrisons-medevac-madness,13228
Michelle Grattan writes about Morrison’s meeting in Jakarta with Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan.
https://theconversation.com/morrison-says-china-knows-where-australia-is-coming-from-after-meeting-chinese-vice-president-125553
Pollutants, such as dangerous drug waste, are contaminating our water system and having detrimental effects on the environment, avers Dr Peter Fisher.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/urban-water-industry-still-not-reckoning-with-catastrophic-climate-change,13227
Tony Walker examines the situation in the Middle East following Trump’s most recent5 actions.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/echoes-of-cold-war-with-russia-the-winner-in-wake-of-us-withdrawal-20191017-p531qw.html
The Conversation looks at who is responsible for the slaughtered ex-racehorses and what can be done about it.
https://theconversation.com/whos-responsible-for-the-slaughtered-ex-racehorses-and-what-can-be-done-125551
Mick Miller headlines this contribution with “The Brexit vote was a message to Boris Johnson: ‘we don’t trust you’”
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-brexit-vote-was-a-message-to-boris-johnson-we-don-t-trust-you-20191020-p532ce.html
It’s Warren, Sanders or Biden vs Trump – all the other Democrats are irrelevant says Robert Reich.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/20/elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-democratic-debate-donald-trump
The Trump presidency should not be shocking. It’s a symptom of our cultural malaise writes Professor Brendon O’Connor.
https://theconversation.com/the-trump-presidency-should-not-be-shocking-its-a-symptom-of-our-cultural-malaise-125054
The impeachment investigation and corruption of President Donald Trump has reached the dramatic proportions of a reality TV series, says Dr Kim Sawyer.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/president-trump-has-perfected-the-art-of-corruption,13223
A massive stockpile of highly toxic chemicals has been discovered inside the rubble of a West Footscray warehouse more than a year after it burnt down during one of Melbourne’s worst industrial fires. All the work of a former “Arsehole of the Week” nominee!
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/toxic-waste-stockpile-found-in-rubble-of-burnt-down-warehouse-20191020-p532fy.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe goes to No. 10.
Glen Le Lievre and Frydenberg’s surplus.
Richard Gilberto on press freedom.
John Shakespeare with our friend Murdoch.
From Matt Golding
A cracker from Zanetti.
Johannes Leak on the MSW ALP inquiry.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ddeacfa3afdb98e469eede812a600169?width=1024
From the US
AE
I was also going to post about that guardian article on land clearing and Ben Fotdham acting as more lobbyist than reporter. Given past form of 2GB the obvious question is whether this is mere bias or another case of cash for comment?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It seems that the AFR is now blocking access to Outline for many of its articles.
Bk, this workaround was kindly supplied by KayJay:
https://medium.com/paywall-hacks/how-to-bypass-virtually-every-news-paywall-705602c4c2ce
This is a classic case of trying to shoot the Messenger:
And irrigators have slammed the Murray-Darling Basin Authority for releasing images of farm dams filled with water in drought-affected parts of the state, likening the move to the controversial Aussie Farms activist website.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/19/irrigators-slam-murray-darling-basin-authority-satellite-images/
From Dawn Patrol:
“Joanne McCarthy, who has plenty of skin in the game, writes that Morrison is yet to answer legitimate questions about his reported attempt to have Hillsong leader Brian Houston invited to the White House. He has unfinished business in reckoning with church abuse she says.”
Actually, I think that Morrison has yet to answer in any informative manner any question about anything.
This was the same theme by Nikki on The Insiders. Get stuck into the workers, get rid of regulation and terrify everyone with the word “reform”.
Cat
Agreed on the complaint about evidence of illegal pumping. Coincidence with land clearing reporting? There is a lot of money at stake. Clearly some NSW farmers are confident they can break the law without prosecution. Angus Taylor has their back?
In fact there are a lot of stories about environmental degradation today, all with one common thread- no prosecution. Most state and federal ministers block it so that poor millionaire farmers never get charged. They are as bad as ASIC.
Many thanks BK.
Urban Wronski this week:
“Surplus to Requirements, ScoMo”
““Look beyond the Canberra bubble” says our PM, who is nothing but Canberra Bubble. A former Liberal apparatchik and player in the game of mates before being called to lead his people as prophet and seer; a high priest of populism and neoliberal revival. As William James and Bertrand Russell said of the turtles who hold the flat earth in its place in creation, for ScoMo, it is Canberra Bubble all the way down.”
https://urbanwronski.com/2019/10/20/surplus-to-requirements-scomo/
Morning all and thanks BK for today’s wrap. There hasn’t been a Rowe cartoon for a while, so assume he is on leave?
The first step in the move by this government towards “ reforming workplace relations “ is the draconian legislation that Lambie and Centre Alliance are rushing to embrace and support using John Setka as a cover.
Millions of Australian workers will be affected by this legislation as it further erodes the ability of unions to protect wages and conditions across the economy. Not just union members. Every worker will be hurt by this and yet some readily embrace Lambie as some sort of hero. What a crock of shit.
This is just the first step.
Socrates @ #37 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 7:55 am
You’ve hit the nail on the head there, Soc!
You know those cheap Blueberries you can buy in Coles and Woolworths now? Grown as a result of land clearing and planting on a massive scale in Northern NSW.
And the lack of prosecution? Again, spot on. Wonder how so many businesses are getting away with not paying their workers their proper entitlements and with wage theft, even worse?
Lack. Of. Prosecution.
Instead we have an ideological jihad against Unions by the Coalition and Cash, in particular. Only prosecutions when Labor Senators like Deb O’Neill do the hard yards to tie the worst of them down and Scott Morrison can’t find a slippery form of words to put in the talking points for his government to explain it away.
It stinks, and it’s true, Scott Morrison is ALL bubble and froth. Canberra Bubble. And the bubbles that come from his government are like the ones that bubble up from foetid swamps.
Confessions @ #39 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 8:13 am
There is a Rowe cartoon today.
We seem to be getting the message from Morrison’s govt that all their machinations are now “on water matters”. It took a while to become a bit of a joke, but now it’s getting serious.
I have also noticed that when he raises his voice a few semitones and speaks quickly, “I believe in press freedom”, he is most likely to be gaslighting.
Frydenberg as he runs around aimlessly: “DON’T PANIC! DON’T PANIC!”
The only sort of ‘press freedom’ Scott Morrison believes in is the sort of press freedom he defines press freedom to be.
Hopefully Pelosi will have some success.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pelosi-leads-a-surprise-delegation-to-jordan-for-vital-discussions-on-syria-crisis/2019/10/20/e749d058-f353-11e9-ad8b-85e2aa00b5ce_story.html
C@t:
OMG so there is. How on earth did I miss that?!
The Omerted bite back.
citizen @ #44 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 8:23 am
It’s good to see the Coalition getting a dose of the same bitter medicine that Labor had to swallow when they came to power and the Neoliberal failure-induced GFC occurred on their watch. Now it’s the Neoliberal-failure induced Wage Suppression causing the economy to stutter to a halt, and all the Coalition can do about is say meaningless drivel like, ‘Don’t Panic!’ Because wage suppression is all part of ‘the plan’.
Confessions @ #47 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 8:26 am
I know, right? It was so, Eww! 😆