Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

No change at all on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which records a mixed bag of movements on the leaders’ personal ratings.

The Australian reports absolutely no change on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which is now appearing predictably on a three-weekly schedule. The Coalition continues to lead 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 33%, Greens 13% (maintaining a four-year high) and One Nation 6%. Scott Morrison is steady on 47% approval and up two on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese’s ratings continue to yo-yo, with approval down two to 37% and disapproval up four to 44%. Despite that, Morrison’s lead as preferred minister is now at 47-32, narrowing from 50-31. The field work period was presumably Thursday to Sunday, and the sample presumably between 1600 and 1700. UPDATE: The sample was 1634, consisting of 953 online and 681 automated phone poll surveys, the latter breakdown still being the only concession offered to greater transparency since the election.

Note also below this post Adrian Beaumont’s latest on Brexit and Canada.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Tony Windsor
    @TonyHWindsor
    ·
    5m
    When the NFF, irrigators and rural local govt agreed with Howard’s National Competition Policy dogma that water should be treated as a commodity and allowed to be traded to its highest value use the end game was obvious …now the chickens are coming home to roost.

    Howard and his IPA mates know the price of everything and the value of nothing. How did we ever allow water to be traded? And who was the wise person who forecast that “the next war would be about water”?

  2. This is certainly disturbing.

    A popular Australian gun blog, Ozzie Reviews, which is frequently critical of firearms laws and posts far-right political content, is run by a serving Queensland police officer with formal permission from his superiors.

    Police records obtained by Guardian Australia show the senior constable, Corrie Dixon, was given a $6,300 taxpayer grant to attend a specialist firearms training course in the US three years ago as part of his police training.

    Dixon has run his blog and online business Ozzie Reviews – which has a presence on Facebook, YouTube and Patreon – since 2012.

    He claims online to have made income from contract shooting, content subscriptions and selling merchandise. He does not publicly represent himself as member of the Queensland police.

    Police confirmed on Friday that Dixon was a serving officer. In a statement the Queensland police service said they were aware of Ozzie Reviews because Dixon had “completed the relevant submission to undertake outside employment” and that this had been approved.

    Gun control advocates say the situation is “disturbing”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/21/queensland-police-gave-serving-officer-permission-to-run-rightwing-gun-blog?CMP=share_btn_tw

  3. Considering that plans of the government to spy on its own citizens were one of the issues that started the media raids. It should be entirely unacceptable to let that pass. Would the ALP have just caved to the LNP as they have on all other national security laws, If the secrecy was allowed to go uninvestigated?

    In PB nightmare news for some, the two Greens parties in Switzerland got a record vote as well.
    https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/switzerland/

  4. Could Texas turn Democrat next year?

    Nationally, Republicans are decreasingly strong where two generations ago they were especially robust — in suburbs. Texas ranks high among the states in terms of the percentage of the population that is suburban. And statewide, whites are a minority.

    In 2008, with the Great Recession underway, John McCain carried Texas by 12 points. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried it by 16. In 2016, Trump (whom Hurd did not endorse) won by nine points. In Texas’s most important 2018 contest for a federal office, incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz won by just three. See a trend?

    If the Democratic Party can collect Texas’s electoral votes — 38 today, perhaps 41 after the 2020 Census — as well as California’s 55, it will reap 35.5 percent of a winning 270 from just two states. Then the GOP will have almost no plausible path to 270, and Democrats who are currently hot to abolish the electoral college will suddenly say: Oh, never mind.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/texodus-bodes-badly-for-republicans/2019/10/18/500fa486-f116-11e9-8693-f487e46784aa_story.html

  5. I just hope the Democrats don’t blow it by selecting a Far Left ideologue.

    And, Beto O’Rourke, Pete Buttigieg, or, yes, SK, Amy Klobuchar for VP running mate to Joe Biden.

  6. “Error, in fact, does not show its true self, lest on being stripped naked is should be detected. Instead, it craftily decks itself out in an attractive dress, and thus, by an outward false appearance, presents itself to the more ignorant, truer than truth itself, ridiculous as it is to even say this”
    Irenaeus, bishop of Lugdunum, “Against Heresies” – about 180 CE

    Fake news is not new!

  7. I didn’t know that Erdogan had publicly humiliated Trump:

    Trump bragged about sending a “very powerful letter” warning Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan not to invade Syria. “Don’t be a fool!” Trump wrote. But Turkish officials leaked word that their leader had thrown the letter in the trash, and Erdogan then took Trump to task for his “lack of respect.”

    “Are we so weak, and so inept diplomatically, that Turkey forced the hand of the United States of America? Turkey?” Sen. Mitt Romney (Utah), the Republican Party’s 2012 presidential nominee, said in a speech Thursday denouncing Trump’s Syria decision as “a bloodstain in the annals of American history.”

    …Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Trump “shows strength at all the wrong times, and then when he needs to show strength, he shows abject weakness.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-season-of-weakness-a-president-who-prizes-strength-enters-key-stretch-in-a-fragile-state/2019/10/19/0daa864c-f1d4-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html

  8. C@t:

    That’s why the WH released the letter, presumably because Trump does actually believe it was a powerful letter.

    Erdogan owned Trump twice in one week. As Rick Wilson wrote, “The leader of the free world? More like the caddy for the Bad Boys of Global Disorder.”

  9. The media is saying “Ken Wyatt’s a good bloke…Isn’t it excellent that the Liberals have an indigenous Minister.”
    Sinodinos: “We have to work as a team.”
    When both Turnbull and Morrison have rejected The Voice, what hope is there?

    The fidelity of a Voice to Australia’s democratic traditions and the rule of law was confirmed by the legal profession, including the Law Council of Australia and 22 law firms, who endorsed Uluru and the Voice proposal. This was followed by the nation’s leading jurists, including two former chief justices of the High Court, Murray Gleeson and Robert French.

    This was no mean feat. This was years of hard work and careful thought into a form of recognition that would have an impact on the lives of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples who want to be active, not passive, participants in the democratic life of the state.

    That the Voice is the only form of recognition worth pursuing was endorsed by the Joint Select Committee on Constitutional Recognition relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples, chaired by the Liberal Party’s Julian Leeser and Labor’s Patrick Dodson.

    Yes, First Nations people want recognition. No, they don’t seek the minimalist reform Wyatt is unilaterally now pursuing.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/don-t-silence-our-voice-minister-uluru-leaders-condemn-backward-step-20191020-p532h0.html

  10. Rofl at Ross Gittins:

    So the IMF isn’t buying even Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe’s “gentle turning point”, much less the efforts of Treasury’s seemingly unsackable Italian forecaster, Dr Rosie Scenario.

    😆

  11. I don’t know whether democracies give people the leaders they deserve, but they do produce leaders that resemble and reflect the people.

  12. When both Turnbull and Morrison have rejected The Voice, what hope is there?

    lizzie, you need to change your lens.
    With a compliant media there is hope for spin and it will sure up the racist vote.

  13. ‘fess,
    Yet, as American commentators have said, Trump’s 40% base is rock solid, fed, as they are, on a diet of Fox News and the Religious and Lunar Right Wing medialand.

    I’ve had a look at some of the religious TV stations when I’ve been staying in houses with Foxtel, not to mention American Fox News itself. I was horrified at how divorced from reality it is! They create their own little worlds and bend the facts to suit. They should be ashamed of themselves but they are shameless in pursuit of their goals. Mainly, overturning Roe V Wade and all the other progressive social gains.

  14. You have to laugh or you would cry at News Ltd and the #righttoknow. Here is an organisation that refuses to do anti govt stories or call out their lies to keep their mates in power yet have the gall to say democracy is at risk. Makes you want to puke at times.

  15. @ozpsych
    ·
    13h
    If everyone today in receipt of a payment from the taxpayer was issued an ‘indue card’ that would gross Forrest $50 billion per year.

    This is the plan and its been years in the making.
    $50 Billion per year. Your money.
    ‘How The Poor Can Make Him Richer, Monetizing Poverty’

  16. PVO’s comment that he’s surprised that Labor is still so close in the Polls given Labor is going through a total review of policies and haven’t worked out what they’ll be putting forward at the next Election highlights, once again that voters aren’t much interested in politics at the moment.

    Sure the numbers may go up an down a little. But, it’s very much “Born to be Mild” elevator music mode atm.

  17. sonar @ #65 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 9:10 am

    You have to laugh or you would cry at News Ltd and the #righttoknow. Here is an organisation that refuses to do anti govt stories or call out their lies to keep their mates in power yet have the gall to say democracy is at risk. Makes you want to puke at times.

    Well, at least it’s better than, ‘All the way with SJM!’ (Scott John Morrison)

  18. they do give them leaders that resemble and reflect the people.

    That is not a very cheering thought. Are we really so lazy and uncaring?

  19. Ben Fordham is a shallow man whose program is dedicated to a benign form of voyeurism. He teases and milks his viewers with over emphasised detail (or speculations) about the episodes of violence and other misery that occur daily.

    His only interruption is to chat with his mates Richo and Credlin with a bit of Hanson and Latham from time to time.

    I always thought his sycophantic interview with his occasional dinner partner John Ibrahim was the nadir but doing the bidding of land clearing corporates may plunge lower.

    Most of all his theme is sponsors and viewer numbers – of them gambling dens or local clubs seems mot prominent.

    All of this rather simple analysis makes it strange why Jenna Price wrote this somewhat adoring piece of him (especially the bottom paragraph).

    https://theworldnews.net/au-news/what-gladys-told-ben-about-abortion-and-why-it-matters

  20. ‘Quoll says:
    Monday, October 21, 2019 at 8:43 am

    Considering that plans of the government to spy on its own citizens were one of the issues that started the media raids. It should be entirely unacceptable to let that pass. Would the ALP have just caved to the LNP as they have on all other national security laws, If the secrecy was allowed to go uninvestigated?

    In PB nightmare news for some, the two Greens parties in Switzerland got a record vote as well.
    https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/switzerland/

    There is a high chance that the Swiss Green parties have sensible policies. I doubt very much, for example, that they are running the utterly vacuous and totally undeliverable Zero/2030 that the Australian Greens are cynically promoting.

  21. Right to Know was launched with some fanfare back in around 2007 when David Kirk was at the helm of the SMH.

    Been a long hibernation.

  22. @firstdogonmoon
    ·
    4m
    nice to see the murdoch front pages taking a break from climate denial, class war and racism even if it is just for a day

  23. Regarding compliant media aka LNP Pravada-style propaganda news.

    ‘Tasmanian public relations firm Font PR yesterday announced it would begin to publish another local paper. Former senior adviser to Liberal Premier Will Hodgman, Martine Haley, will edit the East Coast View, the fourth publication to be taken over by the firm.’
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-21/tas-daily-briefing-monday-21st-october/11621802

    I don’t know if there are any non-LNP biased newspapers are left in Tasmania.

  24. Six months ago, Jacqueline Evans won the Goldman Environmental prize – the world’s foremost environmental award – for her work establishing Marae Moana (meaning “sacred ocean”), which covers the Cook Islands’ entire exclusive economic zone of more than 1.9m sq km.

    Evans alleges she lost her job as director of Marae Moana because she argued in favour of a 10-year-moratorium on seabed mining to allow for research on its environmental impact.

    The Cook Islands government is proceeding with mining exploration, saying it wants to be at “the frontier of the new gold rush” and could be ready to start seabed mining within five years. It says mining the seafloor for metallic nodules could provide financial security for the islands and help them mitigate climate change.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/20/cook-islands-manager-of-worlds-biggest-marine-park-says-she-lost-job-for-backing-sea-mining-moratorium?CMP=share_btn_tw

  25. Sahil KapurVerified account@sahilkapur
    9m9 minutes ago
    It’s an amazing thing to watch. The president floats a wildly problematic idea, gets congressional Republicans to support it, then flips — and leaves those lawmakers twisting in the wind.

  26. The Greens Peace and Demilitarization Policy, apart from reducing the ADF to a Light Mobile Force a la Kurds, includes the following line:

    ‘….while the threat of attack on Australia remains unchanged.’

    I assume that is in there because the Greens believe this to be true. I also assume that this is shorthand for our general security environment. I assume that the Greens are:

    1. Ignoring the increasingly obvious desire of China to become a regional hegemon. Chinese nationalist fervour is coupled with massive increases in defence spending.
    2. Ignoring trends populist nationalism, with militaristic undertones, which threatens Jokowi’s hold on Indonesian presidency.
    3. Ignoring the deteriorating security position of Australia in the South Pacific with more and more island state nations economically in China’s thrall and more and more of them abandoning links with Taiwan.
    4. Ignoring the increasingly unstable and unreliable basis for ANZUS.
    5. Ignoring the progressive demilitarization of our traditional friend, New Zealand.
    6. Ignoring the progessive destablization that will arise as a direct result of global warming in our region.
    7. Ignoring the trends towards autocracy in Laos, Cambodia and the Philippines.
    8. Ignoring US isolationism.
    9. Ignoring the deterioration in NATO.
    10. Ignoring gains made by Russia and China.

    The Greens are here aping the activities of their ideological forebears in the Interwar Years – activities that left the democracies dangerously over-exposed in the military sense to the likes of Franco, Mussolini, Hitler, Mao, Tojo, and Stalin.

  27. ‘Evans alleges she lost her job as director of Marae Moana because she argued in favour of a 10-year-moratorium on seabed mining to allow for research on its environmental impact.’

    Ten years?

    The unemployment rate is 13%. Around a third live below the poverty line.

  28. I don’t know quite why, but this cheered me up.

    At Pollock FC in Scotland a big football fan – a dog called ‘Yardley’ – is allowed to watch games from the stands at Newlandsfield Park.

  29. I don’t know if there are any non-LNP biased newspapers are left in Tasmania.

    I dont mind that the ALP are in a policy vacuum atm. I dont mind that they arent in full opposition mode in parliament and arent fists on table in interviews etc. But they need to urgently develop and enact solutions to this problem. There is no quick fix, so any fixes must start now.

    We can help.
    Subscribe and then lobby The Guardian to have an Aus print version distributed to all cafes and airlines, and barbers…..
    Demand your regional local paper is balanced.
    If your local cafe only has The Aus and AFR and The Advertiser (although the Advertiser is not the worst offender), request they at least have the Saturday Paper available too.
    Support young journos – maybe help arrange a platform for them to write in and make available to various locations.

  30. citizen says:
    Monday, October 21, 2019 at 8:23 am
    Frydenberg as he runs around aimlessly: “DON’T PANIC! DON’T PANIC!”

    Josh Frydenberg says it is “not a time to panic” over tumbling growth.

    by David Crowe (Nine/Fairfax headline)

    So Josh is now modelling himself on Corporal Jones of Dad’s Army.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg

    All Quiet Australians can be reassured.
    (And btw, what is Insiders Fran Kelly doing using Morrison’s “Quiet Australians” expression anyway? https://twitter.com/1958_BestYear/status/1186036427110281216

    edit: or, with better detail: https://www.trendsmap.com/local/au/melbourne)

  31. lizzie
    “A popular Australian gun blog, Ozzie Reviews, which is frequently critical of firearms laws and posts far-right political content, is run by a serving Queensland police officer with formal permission from his superiors.”

    That one is interesting. The outside employment is not the issue. Most PS Acts have rules preventing public servants criticising governmetn policy in public. Qld has such an Act. Gun laws are current government policy. If Corrie Dixon criticises them publicly, then he would be in breach of any such Act.

  32. The objective for Labor – the Opposition – has to be to keep the focus on the Government. Their first priority is to hold the LNP to account. When the next election comes they can publish and promote some policy. There’s a long way to go till the election. In the meantime, they have to take as much shine as possible off the LNP and there is plenty to work on. The economy, the labour market, the environment, the cost of living….the bungling, the rorting, the indifference and the deceits….

    Labor should be attacking the LNP on jobs and wages all day/every day.

  33. lizzie:

    “Yardley” appears to be the only one concentrating on the game.

    nath:

    Unless they’re repetitively covering the same subject, I’m unaware of a rule precluding multiple posts.

  34. Angus Taylor, on Sky News this morning, said he didn’t know what a climate emergency actually meant (as in policy) and called it “empty” virtue signalling (which is something the Tories in the UK might raise an eyebrow at, considering they passed one.)

    :sigh:

  35. RI @ #90 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 10:42 am

    The objective for Labor – the Opposition – has to be to keep the focus on the Government. Their first priority is to hold the LNP to account. When the next election comes they can publish and promote some policy. There’s a long way to go till the election. In the meantime, they have to take as much shine as possible off the LNP and there is plenty to work on. The economy, the labour market, the environment, the cost of living….the bungling, the rorting, the indifference and the deceits….

    Labor should be attacking the LNP on jobs and wages all day/every day.

    Well, you can dream, just like me…..

  36. Lizzie….

    The phrase is Greenware. Obviously, the LNP are not going to adopt it. They make a point of always being the anti-Green pole. It works for them.

  37. “ Ben Fordham is a shallow man whose program is dedicated to a benign form of voyeurism.”

    What the fuck is benign about Fordham’s program Shellbell?

    I think the word you might be searching for is banal: as in the banality of evil.

    The class of people he is spruiking for (and all the talking bobble heads in the stable of Costello World are similarly spruiking): the ‘nobel, hard done by because of ‘the Gubberment’ cocky’ have, over the past 200 years crushed a continent: it ain’t raining (enough) and we are in a protracted drought because most of the native vegetation on this flatish continent has been cleared.

    As a consequence there is insufficient humidity on the western ranges and slopes to trigger them passing clouds into sufficient precipitation. This has been compounded by the mass embankment of the MDRS and the loss of the largest series of interconnected flood plains on earth: which played a vital ecological role on this flatish continent. Then came the dams, weirs and to top it off, endless bores just to really put the boot in. All that before fossil fuel driven global heating has even rocked up.

    Other than in rather closeted scientific communities none of the above is even really on the radar.

    Not in the media.

    Not amongst politicians – even Labor and Greens are preoccupied with other ‘button’ issues like coal.

    Even traditional environmental movements and groups prefer to frame ‘the trees’ debate in terms of spiritual, ascetic (ain’t them old growth forests beauuutiful) or habitat (which is at least worthy). None are focusing on the main game.

  38. C@tmomma @ #55 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 8:52 am

    I just hope the Democrats don’t blow it by selecting a Far Left ideologue.

    And, Beto O’Rourke, Pete Buttigieg, or, yes, SK, Amy Klobuchar for VP running mate to Joe Biden.

    You’re a fan of that bumbling bought-and-paid-for Biden? It might be better to fight a Far Right demagogue with a ‘Far Left ideologue’ like Warren or, preferably, Sanders. A sizeable chunk of Americans seem to be thinking the same.

  39. She’s arrived!

    Pauline Hanson has made an appearance at the estimates committee grilling the AFP. She wants to know about pill testing. Hanson asks the police commissioner whether pill testing is encouraging the drug trade in Australia.

    The commissioner says he doesn’t believe organised criminal syndicates would be influenced by whether pill testing exists or doesn’t.

  40. mundo:

    [‘They probably never will.
    Who’s going to tell them?’]

    Evidence is emerging which points to the proposition that when the election review is complete, Albanese will be more than a match for the sneaky & disingenuous Morrison. I think his suggestion of a “Drought Cabinet” is a good start. If things on the land get worse, as they most likely will, Albanese can point to the fact that he offered bipartisan support to farmers but Morrison refused it.

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