Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

No change at all on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which records a mixed bag of movements on the leaders’ personal ratings.

The Australian reports absolutely no change on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which is now appearing predictably on a three-weekly schedule. The Coalition continues to lead 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 33%, Greens 13% (maintaining a four-year high) and One Nation 6%. Scott Morrison is steady on 47% approval and up two on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese’s ratings continue to yo-yo, with approval down two to 37% and disapproval up four to 44%. Despite that, Morrison’s lead as preferred minister is now at 47-32, narrowing from 50-31. The field work period was presumably Thursday to Sunday, and the sample presumably between 1600 and 1700. UPDATE: The sample was 1634, consisting of 953 online and 681 automated phone poll surveys, the latter breakdown still being the only concession offered to greater transparency since the election.

Note also below this post Adrian Beaumont’s latest on Brexit and Canada.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 thoughts on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 23
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  1. Bellwether @ #98 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 10:57 am

    C@tmomma @ #55 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 8:52 am

    I just hope the Democrats don’t blow it by selecting a Far Left ideologue.

    And, Beto O’Rourke, Pete Buttigieg, or, yes, SK, Amy Klobuchar for VP running mate to Joe Biden.

    You’re a fan of that bumbling bought-and-paid-for Biden? It might be better to fight a Far Right demagogue with a ‘Far Left ideologue’ like Warren or, preferably, Sanders. A sizeable chunk of Americans seem to be thinking the same.

    So, you’re for a Far Left zealot, who likes Warren or Sanders (and don’t let Warren’s benign school marm exterior cloud your perceptions of her unappealing to the general American voter political prescriptions)?

    Good luck with competing for Jill Stein’s voters.

  3. Science sometimes takes a long time to catch up.

    From perfume to car air fresheners, fragrances are impossible to escape in daily life, and new research shows they’re making some of us sick.

    Fragrances are the leading cause of allergic skin reactions in children, an Australian study published in the Australasian Journal of Dermatology on Monday revealed.

    Cosmetic and soap ingredients were the next biggest culprits, the study by the Occupational Dermatology Research and Education Centre in Melbourne showed.

    Nickel sulphate, which is found in items such as jewellery, toys and zippers, was another common cause of allergies.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2019/10/21/fragrances-kids-skin-allergies/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020191021

  4. nath @ #76 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 9:19 am

    20 posts before 9:30 C@t. Don’t you ever shut up?

    You’re right, lizzie. nasty nath, as offensive as ever.

    Apparently, you can’t reply when people on the blog strike up a conversation with you. He’s probably not used to that sort of thing. 😆

    And I could go back to all the times he’s posted way more than 20 times in a day. But I can’t be bothered. He’s just not worth it.

  6. lizziesays:
    Monday, October 21, 2019 at 10:19 am
    I don’t know quite why, but this cheered me up.

    Myself as well, Lizzie

    MDF

  7. 2GB

    Extinction Rebellion has shut down roads and rail in dangerous and illegal protests, causing major public disruption and taking up significant police resources.

    It’s since been revealed that several fund their lifestyle through government welfare payments, with one describing herself as a “full-time protester” and another admitting in court that he doesn’t work.

    “Lifestyle” 😆 At least it gives them a purpose in life.

    Alan pushed the minister to answer whether these protesters can and will be stripped of government payments.

    Alan: I’m going to ask you the question again, are these people on welfare? Do you know who they are? Will they be removed from welfare?

    Minister Cash: If they’re on welfare and they’re choosing to protest, as opposed to attending a job interview, the answer is yes the system can identify them.

    Alan: So when will the cheques stop?

    Minister Cash: The system is set up to ensure we’re doing everything we can to get people off welfare and into work.

    Alan: When will the cheques stop?

    Minister Cash: There’s a system in place. If you’ve got a job offer and you say no then, quite literally, you will be in trouble.

  8. C@tmomma @ #101 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 11:02 am

    Bellwether @ #98 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 10:57 am

    C@tmomma @ #55 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 8:52 am

    I just hope the Democrats don’t blow it by selecting a Far Left ideologue.

    And, Beto O’Rourke, Pete Buttigieg, or, yes, SK, Amy Klobuchar for VP running mate to Joe Biden.

    You’re a fan of that bumbling bought-and-paid-for Biden? It might be better to fight a Far Right demagogue with a ‘Far Left ideologue’ like Warren or, preferably, Sanders. A sizeable chunk of Americans seem to be thinking the same.

    So, you’re for a Far Left zealot, who likes Warren or Sanders (and don’t let Warren’s benign school marm exterior cloud your perceptions of her unappealing to the general American voter political prescriptions)?

    Good luck with competing for Jill Stein’s voters.

    If I’m a far left zealot, which I’m absolutely not, bear in mind that the policies Warren and Sanders propose would be considered centrist in Scandinavian countries. Their ‘medicare for all’ would be considered mainstream in Canada, the UK, the EU and here in Australia. Their wish to take on the 1% I would absolutely applaud. I’ve noticed you have an annoying habit of putting people in boxes, a symptom of a closed mind.

  10. As the climatic chaos and entropy of the world continues to accelerate, I would expect an increasing resort to the faux security of fundamentalism, with its strict guidelines for salvation and a happy ever-after life offering succour to otherwise hapless victims. Accompanied of course with large dollops of judgementalism, and scapegoating.

  11. Does anyone with any kind serious intent, actually buy/read pulp newspapers these days? In my neck of the woods very few get the paper ‘delivered’ as in the days of yore despite claims from our local Stokes rag that their “readership” has sky-rocketed since the import of a DT minion to run the printing presses for the West. The blackened out front page? Like, will anyone really notice or give a toss?

  12. “Left”, “Centrist”, “Establishment” whatever. The real problem I fear is an inability of every single one of the 10-12 democrats still in the game to do all of the following simultaneously:

    ‘cut through’ to the stay at home democrats who sat out 2016 – especially urban democrat inclined men in the rust belt

    Inspire the youth to actually cast a vote

    Not frighten off middle class independents, and

    Get enough ‘boots on the ground’ support from so called ‘establishment’ (but really simply hard core true believers – often teachers, nurses, union floor reps etc) to go out and fight the election.

    It’s a pickle.

  13. In case you didn’t know, US Attorney General William Barr is a ‘devout Catholic’. Devout translates to fundamentalist in my reckoning. And he’s got his anthropomorphic catholic god’s work to do.

    The speech last Friday at the University of Notre Dame law school, in which Barr discussed his conservative faith and revealed how it affects his decision-making as the nation’s chief law-enforcement officer, has set off a fierce debate among Catholic intellectuals from across the political spectrum, as well as among Catholics inside the justice department.

    C Colt Anderson, a Roman Catholic theologian and professor of religion at Jesuit-run Fordham University, said in an interview that he was unaware until this week that Barr was a fellow Catholic. Now, after reading the speech, Anderson believes the attorney general, in revealing his devotion to an especially conservative branch of Catholicism, is a “threat to American democracy”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/19/william-barr-attorney-general-catholic-conservative-speech

  14. Does anyone with any kind serious intent, actually buy/read pulp newspapers these days?

    Buy? Less and less. Read? yes. Especially if you consider newspaper articles are often the pied piper for what stories the other media will choose to run with.

  15. Tricot
    “Does anyone with any kind serious intent, actually buy/read pulp newspapers these days? ”

    Read them?
    Yes. Every I cafe I pass seems to have at least one copy of The Oz and one of the Daily Terror. And people do read them.
    Hardware stores often give them to their tradies with purchases.
    Buy them? Not so much.
    Their purpose is propaganda after all.

  16. Andrew_Earlwood

    I think it’s high time to reduce the field to the 5 or 6 front runners. At present that would be Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg and Harris. The messaging is far too diffuse at the moment.

  17. Listening to Wong/Cormann
    1. Thank god I’m not in the Senate.
    2. Cormann is the greatest conversational roundaboutarian I have ever heard as he tries to avoid any answers, then he accuses Wong of being offensive.

  18. Andrew_Earlwood @ #112 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 10:32 am

    “Left”, “Centrist”, “Establishment” whatever. The real problem I fear is an inability of every single one of the 10-12 democrats still in the game to do all of the following simultaneously:

    ‘cut through’ to the stay at home democrats who sat out 2016 – especially urban democrat inclined men in the rust belt

    Inspire the youth to actually cast a vote

    Not frighten off middle class independents, and

    Get enough ‘boots on the ground’ support from so called ‘establishment’ (but really simply hard core true believers – often teachers, nurses, union floor reps etc) to go out and fight the election.

    It’s a pickle.

    An overcomplicated pickle. ‘Referendum on Trump’ is all they (should) need.

  19. Mavis
    says:
    nath:
    Unless they’re repetitively covering the same subject, I’m unaware of a rule precluding multiple posts.
    __________________________
    I know it’s not my place, and everyone has times when they post a bit. But it seems that when a person deliberately attempts to dominate, or mark their territory day in day out with an incessant stream of consciousness it can be a bit much.

  20. I know it’s not my place, and everyone has times when they post a bit. But it seems that when a person deliberately attempts to dominate, or mark their territory day in day out with an incessant stream of consciousness it can be a bit much.

    Oh, come on. ‘Mark territory’?

  21. Bellwether @ #108 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 11:17 am

    C@tmomma @ #101 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 11:02 am

    Bellwether @ #98 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 10:57 am

    C@tmomma @ #55 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 8:52 am

    I just hope the Democrats don’t blow it by selecting a Far Left ideologue.

    And, Beto O’Rourke, Pete Buttigieg, or, yes, SK, Amy Klobuchar for VP running mate to Joe Biden.

    You’re a fan of that bumbling bought-and-paid-for Biden? It might be better to fight a Far Right demagogue with a ‘Far Left ideologue’ like Warren or, preferably, Sanders. A sizeable chunk of Americans seem to be thinking the same.

    So, you’re for a Far Left zealot, who likes Warren or Sanders (and don’t let Warren’s benign school marm exterior cloud your perceptions of her unappealing to the general American voter political prescriptions)?

    Good luck with competing for Jill Stein’s voters.

    If I’m a far left zealot, which I’m absolutely not, bear in mind that the policies Warren and Sanders propose would be considered centrist in Scandinavian countries. Their ‘medicare for all’ would be considered mainstream in Canada, the UK, the EU and here in Australia. Their wish to take on the 1% I would absolutely applaud. I’ve noticed you have an annoying habit of putting people in boxes, a symptom of a closed mind.

    Thank you for putting me in the box of, ‘people who put other people in boxes’. 🙂

    Now, if you actually comprehended what I was trying to say about Elizabeth Warren you would have realised that America is nothing like the Scandinavian countries, the EU, Australia, Canada, or even the UK. So what might fly there will not fly in the USA. Even Elizabeth Warren realises it:

    Senator Elizabeth Warren has surged to the front of the Democratic pack by promising “big, structural change” — including a “Medicare for all” program that would bring health insurance to all Americans and eliminate private coverage.

    But at Tuesday’s presidential debate, she again refused to say whether taxes would go up in order to pay for such a program. That reticence suggests that Ms. Warren, who was an Oklahoma-born Republican decades before she became a liberal Massachusetts senator, worries about alienating voters fearful of higher taxes and bigger government.

    By contrast, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who wrote the Medicare for All bill that Ms. Warren has said she supports, openly admitted on Tuesday that taxes would go up but that any increase would be “substantially less” than what people currently pay for premiums and out-of-pocket expenses.

    …While Ms. Warren is also angling for support from the party’s left wing, she has avoided mentioning middle-class tax hikes that might alarm moderate voters whom she is trying to peel away from former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., and some of whom she would need to win a general election.

    “She’s positioned herself pretty effectively as someone who has a plan and has thought it out, but the burden is on her to explain the math around the plan,” Doug Sosnik, a former senior adviser to President Bill Clinton, said of Ms. Warren’s support for Medicare for all.

    Anyway, the whole article I will link to explains the polling numbers in America for Medicare For All:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/18/us/politics/latest-democratic-polls.html

  22. nath

    I post a lot in the mornings rather than later in the day, because I wake early. Might as well accuse BK of trying to dominate. Don’t be so picky.

  23. In my opinion Penny Wong would make a great leader of the Labor Party, it is a shame she hasn’t moved into the Lower House. Wong has a lot of positives, she is a woman of color (WOC), she is a committed Christian, she is a queer person. If she was Labor leader she would inspire a lot of people, especially those of color in a way that Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Illhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib have done in America.

    Although I confess identity politics is inherently bad, it is the White, Christian, Male, Hetrosexual, Cis-Gender forms of identity politics are toxic.

  24. Mavis @ #100 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 11:01 am

    mundo:

    ‘They probably never will.
    Who’s going to tell them?’

    Evidence is emerging which points to the proposition that when the election review is complete, Albanese will be more than a match for the sneaky & disingenuous Morrison. I think his suggestion of a “Drought Cabinet” is a good start. If things on the land get worse, as they most likely will, Albanese can point to the fact that he offered bipartisan support to farmers but Morrison refused it.

    The problem is the punters don’t see Scrotty as sneaky & disingenuous.
    Most punters don’t recognise those traits. Scrotty is much too rat cunning for that.
    He says the right things and pushes the right buttons when he needs to.
    He is a greasy, smooth operator. To underestimate him is to blunder large.

  25. Tristo @ #122 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 12:01 pm

    In my opinion Penny Wong would make a great leader of the Labor Party, it is a shame she hasn’t moved into the Lower House. Wong has a lot of positives, she is a woman of color (WOC), she is a committed Christian, she is a queer person. If she was Labor leader she would inspire a lot of people, especially those of color in a way that Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Illhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib have done in America.

    Although I confess identity politics is inherently bad, it is the White, Christian, Male, Hetrosexual, Cis-Gender forms of identity politics are toxic.

    ‘she is a committed Christian’
    So fucking what.
    Julia Gillard was a committed atheist.
    What does this shit even mean.

  26. Warren is the most broadly popular candidate among Democrats, who do constitute her most important target market. So she’s likely to get the gig, though the primaries are still some way off.

    She appears to be less popular among black and Hispanic voters than among white voters. But this is not necessarily fatal for her chances. She still has a lot of time to build her ratings in these communities. Trump is also popular among the white electorate, so Warren will be competitive there among voters that have rejected Trump. This is likely to be pronounced among white, college-educated suburban women.

    I like Warren, I have to admit. In every possible sense, she is not Trump. She has declared herself for policies and values that define her as a leader. I admire that. As a woman, of course she also embodies the quest for equality and accomplishment that lies at the heart of the American ideal. I think she would make a great President.

  28. Simon Katich @ #120 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 11:57 am

    I know it’s not my place, and everyone has times when they post a bit. But it seems that when a person deliberately attempts to dominate, or mark their territory day in day out with an incessant stream of consciousness it can be a bit much.

    Oh, come on. ‘Mark territory’?

    ‘Deliberately attempts to dominate’!?!

    Um, no.

    ‘an incessant stream of consciousness’.

    Casting the net far and wide there. This is a conversational blog, generally about politics. I have conversations with people and I enjoy doing that. I also post things that interest me, generally about politics. I am conscious about politics here and in the rest of the world. As are most people here. And there are those with obsessions about certain politicians as well. All allowed.

    Plus, I don’t see any equivalent criticism about others who post here all day, every day. Not that they deserve it either. Just me, it seems. Hmm, I wonder why a poster who has been shown to be obsessive about certain politicians would therefore target me? Don’t answer.

    Finally, ‘marking my territory’!?! Not funny, simply offensive. And why I generally take no notice of this particular person. And will continue to do so.

    Finally, my mother put it best, as she said to me numerous times, “You could talk the leg off an iron pot!” 😆

  30. She appears to be less popular among black and Hispanic voters than among white voters.

    You mean, exactly like Hillary?

    But this is not necessarily fatal for her chances.

    Um…Hillary?

  31. C@tmomma

    Just a word of caution, don’t put all your faith in US mainstream media. They are firmly in the establishment’s pocket.

  32. nath:

    ‘… everyone has times when they post a bit.’

    Yes, they sometimes do, as in, for instance, your exchanges with Boerwar, sometimes zoomster.

    ‘But it seems that when a person deliberately attempts to dominate, or mark their territory day in day out with an incessant stream of consciousness it can be a bit much.’

    That’s a matter of perception. If you think about it, your comment to Cat, ” Don’t you ever shut up?” was, as far as I can ascertain, unprovoked and a tad spiteful.

  33. Bellwether @ #131 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 12:12 pm

    C@tmomma

    Just a word of caution, don’t put all your faith in US mainstream media. They are firmly in the establishment’s pocket.

    I don’t. I put my faith in the aggregate polling in America. You can learn a lot from the people who actually determine the results of their elections, when asked by reputable pollsters and aggregated.

    Unlike here where it’s all cloak and daggers stuff in the shadows and then produced from behind a cloak, voila!

  36. Clinton won the popular vote quite handily. Warren can easily do the same. Very easily. The problem for any Democratic candidate is to overcome the disability caused by the electoral college, which favours Republicans. Whoever the Democrats run, they will have to reverse Trump’s advantage in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Republicans are obviously well-organised in these States. So they start with an advantage, no matter who the Democrats run with.

    In 2020, to win a Democratic nominee will have to campaign week-in and week-out in all the swing States. There is no reason that Warren should be any less competitive in this than any other possible nominee. She has a proven capacity to attract support on the hustings….a capacity to grow her support rather than to simply guard the support already expressed.

    I like her a lot. I’m biased. I think she would make a great POTUS. She would heal America, a country much wounded by Trump. They need it.

  37. lizziesays:
    Monday, October 21, 2019 at 11:47 am

    Listening to Wong/Cormann
    1. Thank god I’m not in the Senate.
    2. Cormann is the greatest conversational roundaboutarian I have ever heard as he tries to avoid any answers, then he accuses Wong of being offensive.

    Cormann’s idea of offensive is anything that shows him or the Government as being a hypocrite or lying.

  38. America is still a country founded on ideals. Americans remain a people capable of being inspired by them. They are not inherently Trumpy. The Democrats really have to look past the fears and traumas incited by Trump and look to their own strengths. They can do it. Really, they must do it.

  41. mundosays:
    Monday, October 21, 2019 at 12:07 pm

    …

    ‘she is a committed Christian’
    So fucking what.
    Julia Gillard was a committed atheist.
    What does this shit even mean.

    Completely agree.

    Also, watching her go about her Parliamentary duties, you wouldn’t know.

  43. mundo:

    ‘The problem is the punters don’t see Scrotty as sneaky & disingenuous.
    Most punters don’t recognise those traits. Scrotty is much too rat cunning for that.
    He says the right things and pushes the right buttons when he needs to.
    He is a greasy, smooth operator. To underestimate him is to blunder large.’

    Give it time, the average punter will ultimately see through him. He has managed drought relief abysmally, and he’s handling the economy similarly. The flimflam man will have his day of reckoning.

  44. I like her a lot. I’m biased. I think she would make a great POTUS. She would heal America, a country much wounded by Trump. They need it.

    Not true. Not that she’ll ever get to be POTUS. Trump and the Conservative machine hasn’t even started again on her. ‘Pocohontas’ was just the beginning. No doubt they’ll dredge up her Republican days to put up her hypocrisy in headlights. But basically they just have to do to her what the Coalition did to Labor. How much will her policies cost you? And in these days of the global working Precariat, that message resonates loudly.

  45. Barney

    anything that shows him or the Government as being a hypocrite or lying.

    So he “takes offence” at anything at all said by Labor!!

  47. I think voters apply a steep discount to leadership these days. After more than a decade of leadership turmoil (going back to Howard/Costello jostling) voters are not over-invested in leaders. They’re hardly over-invested in politics at all. The best that can be said is they’re mostly indifferent to politics and politicians, though their sentiments are often far more vehement than that.

    If voters do not seem to be disenchanted with Morrison it’s worth remembering they were never enchanted in the first place.

  48. The climate emergency motion debate ran out of time – it will continue tomorrow.

    Plenty of time for inaction then. 🙁

    Although, to be serious, I’d like to know what can be done, when the small number of billionaires who really own the world are not prepared to act.

  49. Yeah….US politics is exceptionally brutalising. It is ferocious. So you have to hand it to anyone who wants to put their hand up to run, especially to run for the Democrats.

    It is a wonder that the Democrats ever win anything….

    But they can win in 2020. They need to inspire the Democratic constituencies. If they do this, they will win.

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