Plenty of fascinating electoral/political action going down at the moment – in Britain. Adrian Beaumont has the latest on that in the post below. Back home though, just the following:
• Following last week’s chatter surrounding Mark Dreyfus, another round of “speculation” concerning the future of a federal Labor MP: this time Mike Kelly, who has a precarious hold on the former bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro. According to Renee Viellaris of the Courier-Mail ($), Kelly is “frustrated he is not opposition defence spokesman”, and has been telling colleagues he has been “offered a job based in Australia for a Silicon Valley firm”. Even more strikingly, unidentified Nationals have put it to Viellaris that John Barilaro, who leads the state Nationals and holds the corresponding seat of Monaro, is hoping to contest the seat with a view to deposing Michael McCormack as federal leader, and that Kelly is more than comfortable with the idea.
• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll once again has nothing to say on voting intention, but does feature the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These record negative movement for Scott Morrison, who is up down two on approval to 47% and up two on disapproval to 38%, and positive movement for Anthony Albanese, who is respectively up four to 40% and down two to 29%. Similarly, Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is at 42-28, narrowing from 46-25. The poll also features a semi-regular question on the attributes of the major parties, which are discussed in general terms in the report – hopefully Essential will publish full results later today. Essential’s website has further results on attitudes to family violence, which are of sociological interest (older respondents were considerably more likely to take a broad view of what constituted family violence) but have little to offer the party politics obsessive.
• The Daily Telegraph ($) had a YouGov Galaxy poll last week showing 70% support for “a federal government trial for unemployed people newly claiming Newstart or Youth Allowance to undergo drug testing and for those who test positive being put on an income management program involving a cashless welfare card”, with only 24% opposed. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
phoenixRED, Walking along the wall in DC was a moving experience. I started out reading the names of the early casualties at my feet. I had to bend down to read them. As I walked along I gave up reading the names. I finished up feeling overwhelmed by the pointlessness of it all. It’s a powerful memorial. I can’t imagine a wall 4 miles long. How tall would it be? It would be inhuman in scale, which of course would be the point.
Late Riser says: Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 4:40 pm
phoenixRED, Walking along the wall in DC was a moving experience. I started out reading the names of the early casualties at my feet. I had to bend down to read them. As I walked along I gave up reading the names. I finished up feeling overwhelmed by the pointlessness of it all. It’s a powerful memorial. I can’t imagine a wall 4 miles long. How tall would it be? It would be inhuman in scale, which of course would be the point.
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As LBJ has been mentioned recently on PB – in slightly glowing terms – I’ll just add my feelings on the Wall and Vietnam :
Eight million tons of bombs ( 4 times the amount the US dropped in WW2 ) 400,000 tons of napalm, 18.2 million gallons of Agent Orange ….. 3.8 million Vietnamese deaths …plus those in Cambodia, Laos ….
Vietnamese report another 40,000 killed by landmines/unexploded ordnance since 1975 … the death toll continues …
….and all based on a ‘false flag’ attack – the NSA have admitted it lied about what really happened in the “Gulf Of Tonkin Incident” in 1964 to make it look like North Vietnamese boats fired on US ships so creating a false justification for the Vietnamese war – throw in LBJ – with a history (family and personal) of chronic severe Bi-Polar Affective Disorder (Manic – Depressive Disorder) and Oh what a lovely war …..
….. and I don’t mean to hurt the deaths of the US soldiers by that : their anguish is terrible
I well remember a young man as an ex-soldier being interviewed saying “They expect us as a normal sane person who has never even seen death to go to these places and see unimaginable horrors, including kids and women, beyond description and to then come back totally unaffected …….. I have never been able to wipe the nightmares of what I saw from my brain “
I’ve visited the Vietnam War museum in Ho Chi Minh City. That was pretty harrowing too.
Meanwhile great fun WBBL on the telly. 🙂
Mexicanbeemer @ #1689 Sunday, October 20th, 2019 – 3:59 pm
Almost like he was the Anti Shorten. I wonder how many votes that got him?
Been watching my great-niece batting for the Brisbane Heat* and get back here to find myself agreeing with of all people, Nath, on Bush-Cheney. But with a caveat that is: “up to now.”
Who knows what a cornered rat will do.
But for all of his trashing of the Office of the President, the Office will survive when he is removed from the place, either by impeachment or the will of the people at the ballot box. It will take just one decent incumbent, a Democrat, to restore the dignity of the Oval Office.
*later in the match she caught out her best mate who is playing for the Sydney Thunder.
FWIW, IMO that figure of 3.8 million killed is questionable.
Someone has tried to call out one of Morrison’s lies. I wonder how he will twist this one.
Boerwar says: Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 5:03 pm
FWIW, IMO that figure of 3.8 million killed is questionable.
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Total deaths in the Vietnam War
The human costs of the long conflict were harsh for all involved. Not until 1995 did Vietnam release its official estimate of war dead:
•As many as 2 million civilians on both sides and some 1.1 million North Vietnamese and Viet Cong fighters.
•The U.S. military has estimated that between 200,000 and 250,000 South Vietnamese soldiers died in the war.
•In 1982 the Vietnam Veterans Memorial was dedicated in Washington, D.C., inscribed with the names of 57,939 members of U.S. armed forces who had died or were missing as a result of the war.
•Over the following years, additions to the list have brought the total past 58,200.
https://vietnamembassy-pyongyang.org/how-many-vietnamese-died-in-the-vietnam-war/
It is great to see that Mr Morrison is concerned about roof fires.
Excellent.
Over a hundred houses have burned so far this fire season. Not just the roof. The whole house. Some of those are in areas with record low rainfall and in areas that have been much hotter than on record.
Lots of those houses would have been lived in by Quiet Australians.
Thoughts and prayers. Thoughts and prayers. Thoughts and prayers.
Boerwar
Good one.
phR
Using the maximum North Vietnamese and US figure we arrive at a total of 3.410 million – around 400,000 less than the 3.8 million figure.
Prime Minister Twisty?
So we have .7 million unemployed Quiet Australians, 1.1 million underemployed Quiet Australians and another 1 million who want work but who no longer search for employment.
That makes 2.8 million Quiet Australians right there.
This brought tears to my eyes just because…
https://twitter.com/i/status/1185790506107731968
Another one for the Maddow tally boards it would seem.
lizzie @ #1717 Sunday, October 20th, 2019 – 5:28 pm
What is truth? Whatever the government of the day and the media decide. Poor fella my country
phoenixRED
says:
Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 5:10 pm
Boerwar says: Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 5:03 pm
FWIW, IMO that figure of 3.8 million killed is questionable.
********************************************
Total deaths in the Vietnam War
The human costs of the long conflict were harsh for all involved. Not until 1995 did Vietnam release its official estimate of war dead:
•As many as 2 million civilians on both sides
_________________________________
And some people think LBJ was not a sociopath…….
lizzie @ #1708 Sunday, October 20th, 2019 – 5:08 pm
Maybe Labor are more godly than the Liberal Party? God had the Burning Bush after all. 🙂
Just LOOk at them!
Found this funny
@KateBolduan
Gen James Mattis responds to Trump calling him an overrated general. At the Al Smith Memorial Foundation dinner: “Trump called me an overrated general….But I don’t mind. He called Meryl Streep an overrated actress. So I guess I’m the Meryl Streep of generals.”
BK @ #1722 Sunday, October 20th, 2019 – 6:02 pm
Mumbo jumbo anyone?
Speaking of which. James Traub is a columnist at Foreign Policy magazine:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/17/opinion/liberalism-trump.html?te=1&nl=david-leonhardt&emc=edit_ty_20191018
Sound familiar?
This is a valuable statement from Greg Jericho, but it is important that he also acknowledge that the correct fiscal balance for the federal government is the one that supports full employment, healthy ecosystems, stable prices, low inequality, no poverty, and excellent public services. Greg should acknowledge that as a currency issuer the federal government is bound by real resource constraints, not by financial constraints. The federal government does not need to balance its budget across a financial year, or across the business cycle, or across the orbital period of Halley’s Comet. If the domestic private sector is running a surplus and the foreign sector is running a surplus, then the federal government will definitely be running a deficit that is equal to the sum of the other two sectors’ surpluses, and that is just fine. A big part of the problem is the ALP and nominally progressive people who argue that at some point the federal government needs to aim for a fiscal surplus. It does not. It needs to aim for real, meaningful economic and social outcomes. The fiscal balance is just a record of financial flows in a currency the government cannot run of.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/oct/20/this-government-has-abandoned-economic-logic-and-no-one-seems-willing-to-call-them-on-it#comment-134525630
Lizzie @1.32pm and @@1.36pm
I agree with your sentiments about USA discussions. You have a very clear but very polite way of expressing yourself, a great characteristic to “own”.
Psyclaw
I value your opinion. Thank you.
Labor did go backwards in both votes and seats in the recent federal election, because with the electoral boundaries after redistribution Labor held 71 seats, at the election it won 68 seats. Also if there were no crossbenchers, Labor would have won 71 seats versus 80 for the Coalition. If there is going to be a by-election in Eden-Monaro, the Coalition could increase it’s majority by another 2 seats. For Labor to win the next election, they will need a primary vote of at least 40% or a million extra votes.
It seems to me that Labor’s current strategy is based on the assumption are betting that the economy will tank and the Morrison government will do nothing. However I believe that it is probable if we enter a severe recession, the Morrison government will do economic stimulus in order to get re-elected.
BW @3:20PM. “If the Dems pick Sanders I would 100% support him in exactly the same way Sanders and his supporters supported Clinton 100%.”
Well, for what it’s worth, very little since I cant vote in US elections, I will 100% support whoever the Denocrats put up against Trump.
Tristo, I reckon the moment Morrison can declare a budget surplus will be the moment the purse strings will be loosened.
We’ll get crap about the global economy and how only the libs can deliver a surplus and boost the economy because of this.
And he’ll hammer that point all the way to the election.
Once the surplus is delivered it will be mission accomplished.
The LNP’s plan to hobble the industry super funds using the Hayne royal commission certainly worked out well…
vatfud
https://www.rethinkx.com/press-release/2019/9/16/new-report-major-disruption-in-food-and-agriculture-in-next-decade
Sorry BW, I think you need to explain ‘vatfud’. An internet seach points me to Watford, or to other uses in PB. It’s not in the Urban Dictionary and it doesn’t show up as Internet slang.
Who knows what Johnson and his mates are planning?
Who, in their right mind, would’ve picked Wales v France – Bravo-Zulu to Wales:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wcuwDXFS5Y
Well done boys, but the Springboks shall be a problem providing they beat the pesky Japanese.
Tristo says:
Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 7:21 pm
Labor did go backwards in both votes and seats in the recent federal election, because with the electoral boundaries after redistribution Labor held 71 seats, at the election it won 68 seats.
———————
It does not work like that , Labor never held 71seats in house of reps after the 2016 federal election Labor only had 69 seats , the seats which were redistribution were still coalition held, up to the 2019federal election
Labor lost 1 seat in the 2019 federal election , libs/nats gain 1 seat
Steve777 says:
Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 8:18 pm
Sorry BW, I think you need to explain ‘vatfud’. An internet seach points me to Watford, or to other uses in PB. It’s not in the Urban Dictionary and it doesn’t show up as Internet slang.
It is a play on cat fud a la Larson. It is my term for what I believe will replace all current ag systems well before the end of this century: food grown in vats.
https://www.google.com/search?q=cat+fud+cartoon&client=firefox-b-d&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=uy5WI8FBeo5XwM%253A%252CPCPuad-cvmGytM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kSSTVcwrE24Gj5WKsMLliSD6AMvhQ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjG74uFxarlAhXSH7cAHXNvC6UQ9QEwAHoECAcQHA#imgrc=uy5WI8FBeo5XwM:
If Labor were given the 2 redistribution in the house of reps , before the 2019 federal election
The numbers would have been Libs/nats 73 seats , Labor 71 seats
who knows
A no confidence motion may have been successful and it also may have been Prime Minister Bill Shorten who called the 2019federal election
Re Scott @8:35PM.
What is significant is that Labor’s 2PP share went backwards over 1% from 49.6% to 48.5% when it seemed to be doing well. Labor’s primary vote was at about the same level as its 2013 nadir.
The SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford has confirmed the party will bring a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, potentially later in the week.
Blackford told the BBC’s Sunday Politics Scotland programme: “We are prepared, once we’ve got that extension in place, to take our responsibilities and move a motion of no confidence and I would be looking for parliamentary time to do that and I would expect everyone else to step up.”
Blackford said Boris Johnson’s behaviour over the sending of letters to the EU last night proved that he was “not treating the office with any respect or dignity”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/20/brexit-boris-johnson-eu-deal-delay-live-news
Steve777 says:
Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 8:44 pm
Re Scott @8:35PM.
What is significant is that Labor’s 2PP share went backwards over 1% from 49.6% to 48.5% when it seemed to be doing well. Labor’s primary vote was at about the same level as its 2013 nadir.
—————-
Yes also the libs/nats combined primary vote also went backwards
2019 41.44%
2016 42.04%
Maybe the Commons will depose Johnson. He is certainly inviting removal and he clearly lacks the numbers to defend himself.
Wow! Talk about chicanery! No wonder Michael Gove is gloating about what he has up his sleeve:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/19/world/europe/boris-johnson-parliament.html
Psyclaw:
[‘I agree with your sentiments about USA discussions. You have a very clear but very polite way of expressing yourself, a great characteristic to “own”.’]
I’m in agreement in part thereof. But where I take issue is that which happens in the US has the very real potential to affect us all. Accordingly, I fully endorse phoenixRed’s posts.
Mavis
I did !!! But FMD was it heart attack material.
BW @8:39. Thank you.
The Far Side -great stuff in a weurd sort of way. Haven’t seen or heard of it for ages.
Steve777
What is also interesting
Since the 2013 Federal election
The libs/nats primary vote dropped 5.1% , Turnbull was supposed to be a lot more popular than Abbott
2013 Federal Election under Abbott
The libs/nats combined primary vote was 46.5%
I doubt the Coalition won in 2013 due to the popularity of TA. Despite his lack of popularity would be more likely.
poroti:
[‘Who, in their right mind, would’ve picked Wales v France – Bravo-Zulu to Wales:
I did !!! But FMD was it heart attack material.’]
Nice to see you back posting, there being a wee hiatus. I trust you’re well. And, yes, it was…