Plenty of fascinating electoral/political action going down at the moment – in Britain. Adrian Beaumont has the latest on that in the post below. Back home though, just the following:
• Following last week’s chatter surrounding Mark Dreyfus, another round of “speculation” concerning the future of a federal Labor MP: this time Mike Kelly, who has a precarious hold on the former bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro. According to Renee Viellaris of the Courier-Mail ($), Kelly is “frustrated he is not opposition defence spokesman”, and has been telling colleagues he has been “offered a job based in Australia for a Silicon Valley firm”. Even more strikingly, unidentified Nationals have put it to Viellaris that John Barilaro, who leads the state Nationals and holds the corresponding seat of Monaro, is hoping to contest the seat with a view to deposing Michael McCormack as federal leader, and that Kelly is more than comfortable with the idea.
• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll once again has nothing to say on voting intention, but does feature the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These record negative movement for Scott Morrison, who is up down two on approval to 47% and up two on disapproval to 38%, and positive movement for Anthony Albanese, who is respectively up four to 40% and down two to 29%. Similarly, Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is at 42-28, narrowing from 46-25. The poll also features a semi-regular question on the attributes of the major parties, which are discussed in general terms in the report – hopefully Essential will publish full results later today. Essential’s website has further results on attitudes to family violence, which are of sociological interest (older respondents were considerably more likely to take a broad view of what constituted family violence) but have little to offer the party politics obsessive.
• The Daily Telegraph ($) had a YouGov Galaxy poll last week showing 70% support for “a federal government trial for unemployed people newly claiming Newstart or Youth Allowance to undergo drug testing and for those who test positive being put on an income management program involving a cashless welfare card”, with only 24% opposed. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
@MichaelPascoe tweets
Has the Terror ever been capable if seeing anything in more than shouted black and white?
A simple paper devoted to dumbing down its readers. Presumably run by simple people – or plain bastards. https://twitter.com/ACTINOSProject/status/1184220306681946112
@ACTINOSProject tweets
Same city.
2 front pages.
One expressing surprise that elected officials would not be guided by Coronial findings & expertise.
The other, apoplectic at the prospect that their narrative differs from that of those who know something about the issue.
#TheScienceIsTheScience https://twitter.com/ACTINOSProject/status/1184220306681946112/photo/1
I chuckled when I saw this place on the map… Truth in advertising?
“The proprietor of a U.S. border-town bed and breakfast has been charged with 21 counts under the Immigration Act for “inducing, aiding or abetting” seven people who attempted to illegally enter Canada.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/smugglers-inn-blaine-washington-people-smuggling-allegations-1.5089505
‘lizzie says:
Wednesday, October 16, 2019 at 9:20 am
If Labor declares a “climate emergency”, will they also pressure VicLabor to stop the harvesting of timber from Victorian forests?’
If Victorian Labor wants to start losing at state level the regional seats lost at national level, why not?
@BernieSanders tweets
Tax the billionaires.
The British pound is looking strong – either a deal is close or it’s yet another ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ situation
Bonza
Or Johnson has no deal and the law compels him to do an extension.
Some truly great images here:
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2019/oct/15/tony-ray-jones-england-60s-swinging-in-pictures
J
On the available facts they took their kids with them knowing the risks.
If so, arseholes as well as crims.
Boerwar:
Water by … Trebuchet!
Boerwar
At the very least, VicLabor should enforce the rules on harvesting timber which are frequently flouted by VicForests in order to export woodchips.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/please-leave-us-archbishop-tells-same-sex-marriage-supporters-to-abandon-anglican-church-20191015-p530tk.html
a r @ #48 Wednesday, October 16th, 2019 – 9:19 am
Labor have said they are not convinced about the value to the economy of the tax cuts for people earning >$250000/year, iirc. A stagnant economy will give them the opportunity to argue that they are unnecessary.
Cat
Too passive. Labor has to argue the tax cuts proves the LNP are very bad economic managers. That money could have gone instead to an economic stimulus like Wayne Swan did.
Don’t forget the Democratic debate at 11:00 I forgot earlier to adjust for Daylight Savings.
‘lizzie says:
Wednesday, October 16, 2019 at 10:00 am
Dr Robyn Whitaker
@robynjwhitaker
·
43m
There’s a redefinition of “Anglican” here that is terrifying and must be utterly rejected. Christianity has always tolerated a range of views. ‘
100% bullshit.
https://theconversation.com/five-of-the-most-violent-moments-of-the-reformation-71535
Re Lizzie @10:00.
The Sydney Anglican Archdiocese has always reflected the Conservarive / Evangelical strand of Anglicanism. In many ways it’s effectively a separate church from the mainstream Australian Anglicans. It is one of a few diosceses in Australia that does not allow ordination of women.
Steve777
Yes, ‘famous’ for its conservative attitude. Funny that Sydney of all places should represent that stream.
Frydenberg thinks that “headwinds” are all from offshore, rather than from their own policies.
Re Anglicanism, church membership and affiliation has been collapsing in recent years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglican_Church_of_Australia#Demographics_and_structure
It would look even worse if regular churchgoes only were counted.
It’s not just Anglicans. It would be happening in all mainstream churches. My theory is that the people left have a higher proportion of hard-core conservatives. It is also interesting to note the growth of authoritarian strains of Christianity like the Evalngelicals. Simple truths, no shades of grey. People inclined to being religious find the mainstream churches too wishy-washy.
I wonder if there are any dots to join here? I’m not suggesting he was directly involved, but what did he know and when? It could explain why the government is so keen to shut this down rather than conduct war crimes investigations.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-16/australian-special-forces-shot-unarmed-afghans-claim-reports/11598370
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Hastie_(politician)#Military_career_(2001%E2%80%932015)
Kerr’s perfidy should be revealed but I fear it won’t be:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/kerr-and-queen-s-dismissal-letters-public-not-personal-whitlam-biographer-20191015-p530p5.html
lizzie
It’s official. The Government has nothing to do with the economy except when the economy is going well.
Frydenberg thinks.
Mr. A. Jones reads Poll Bludger – evidence – he uses the word “bloviator” in his excoriation of Mr. S. Morrison.😇
The Liberals like economic repression. It suits their messaging generally. They will not pursue policies aimed at achieving full employment. Rather, they intend to run a deflationary labour market. This is a dream come true for the Liberals.
We have declining GDP/capita….unending fiscal pressure, monetary and labour repression. Happy days for the Liberals.
lizzie @ #68 Wednesday, October 16th, 2019 – 10:35 am
He says what he is told by Morrison, so it is said.
what would a phrenologist made of Peter Dutton’s head? he is looking more simian by the day.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/oct/16/economy-coalition-labor-morrison-albanese-politics-live#img-1
https://fineartamerica.com/featured/phrenology-english-school.html
underdeveloped human nature and overdeveloped self esteem? (& I know phrenology is crap)
KayJay @ #73 Wednesday, October 16th, 2019 – 10:45 am
So, do you think he will start using ‘unctuous insincerity’ then? 🙂
Boerwar
Very good!
C@t
What a crawling puppet he is then. I have no respect for him.
And there I was thinking Dutton looked more like this every day:
A hard boiled egg.
According to a “leaked” Liberal poll here in WA, some 68% of women polled indicated they will vote Liberal at the next election meaning a landslide win for the Liberals. The reasoning the local West gave, was that women have to cope with the increased household expenses – ipso facto caused wholly and solely by the current Labor State government – and therefore they,Labor, should be booted out. Meanwhile the Nationals have set up their own conditions for coalition which basically includes all the perks and slush funds associated with the last LNP government here. Royalties for Regions, of course, being the major one in WA.
SF
The times in very general terms overlap.
The locations in very general terms overlap.
But, apart from that, there is not enough information to join the dots.
I have heard of nothing specific in relation to Hastie so unfair, IMO, at this stage to drag him into the war crimes behaviour of some SAS in Afghanistan.
There was a second incident reported on radio this morning. It involved a man first being shot in the leg and then being beaten to death. I can’t recall whether a time and place were mentioned.
As usual, the Government is applying Omerta to what, IMO, will be a series of war crimes trials.
A farmer (Labor voter) trying to explain to non-farmers the value of blood lines.
It’s shocking when best pals have a falling out:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-16/scott-morrison-saved-by-the-bell-drought-policy-alan-jones/11606530
C@tmomma @ #76 Wednesday, October 16th, 2019 – 10:52 am
I don’t quite know what to make of that. I’m just about out of BS after the long load of ..C.r.A.p.earlier.
However, in regard to the “headwinds” the solution is plain.
I expect an announcement any day now that all citizens of the “I feel 100% Australian” variety, will, immediately after morning thoughts and prayers, face West. This will immediately bring tailwinds to boost the (imaginary) economy and bring loud cries of
In the meanwhile the Good Ship Morripop sails serenely on it’s unctuous journey to the stars.
♫ I’ve thrown away♫ my toys, even ♫ my drum and ♫ train
♫ I want to make ♫ some noise with ♪ real live aeroplanes
Some ♪ day I’m going to ♫ fly,I’ll be a ♪ pilot, too
And ♫ when I do, how ♫ would you ♫ like to be my ♫ crew?
♫ On The Good ♫ Ship ♪ Lollipop
It’s a ♫ sweet trip to a ♪ candy shop
♫♪ Where bon-bons ♪ play
♫ On the sunny ♫ beach of ♪ Peppermint Bay
Of course the thinkers among us realise that the Drum will never be thrown away. This applies to …(just about everbody).
Sydney Anglicans belong to the strongest and oldest cult.
“I am right and you are wrong”
Boerwar:
In relation to the “severed hands” issue, there is a leaked document indicating that Captain Hastie (as he then was) and the sergeant under his command, acted to stop it.
Boerwar @ #57 Wednesday, October 16th, 2019 – 8:40 am
Lovely. Thank you.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues to influence Australian and global climate. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral.
The current positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has strengthened significantly over the past month. The latest weekly value of +2.15 °C is the strongest positive weekly value since at least 2001 (when the Bureau’s weekly dataset commenced), and possibly since 1997, when strong monthly values were recorded. Over the past month, strong easterly trade winds across the tropical Indian Ocean aided upwelling of cooler water in the eastern Indian Ocean. At the same time, very warm waters off the Horn of Africa have caused an even greater temperature gradient across the basin.
Given the strength of the trade winds, the IOD may strengthen further over the next fortnight. However, international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the positive IOD is unlikely to persist far into summer. IOD breakdown occurs when the monsoon trough moves into the southern hemisphere in early December. With the monsoon trough having a record-late retreat from India this year, the shift into the southern hemisphere may also be later than usual.
Typically, a positive IOD brings below average winter–spring rainfall to southern and central Australia, with warmer days for the southern two-thirds of the country. Positive IOD events are often associated with a more severe fire season for southeast Australia. Learn more about the Indian Ocean Dipole.
In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Most indicators of ENSO are near-average, although the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is negative (El Niño-like) due to very high atmospheric pressure at Darwin. The corresponding pressure in Tahiti is largely within normal bounds. This suggests the negative SOI is not related to a developing El Niño, but rather is likely related to the strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the cooler waters between Australia and Indonesia.
Climate models forecast neutral ENSO for the remainder of 2019 and into the first quarter of 2020. When ENSO is neutral, it has little effect on Australian and global climate, meaning other influences are more likely to dominate.
Jones shows remarkably little curiosity in the climate. For his trouble, Abbott wanted to abolish this climate function at BOM.
Mavis
Two spivs a’spivving.
Jones would be in Dutton’s corner, I assume.
I love reading John Crace. He has a way with the words.
https://www.theguardian.com/profile/johncrace
Describing yesterday’s Queen’s Speech:
‘E. G. Theodore says:
Wednesday, October 16, 2019 at 11:22 am
Boerwar:
I have heard of nothing specific in relation to Hastie so unfair, IMO, at this stage to drag him into the war crimes behaviour of some SAS in Afghanistan.
In relation to the “severed hands” issue, there is a leaked document indicating that Captain Hastie (as he then was) and the sergeant under his command, acted to stop it.’
Yep. I despise Hastie for a number of excellent reasons but that does not justify smearing him with the war crimes brush.
That said, the newly-elected bumptious anti-politician political clown announced that he was going to Canberra to fix the national drugs epidemic. Apart from the occasional foray into international affairs shit-stirring, he has achieved jackshit.
Hastie stepped up to help roll Turnbull. He’s doing well so far, by his own lights at least.
Some rubbery figures to assist Mr Jones:
There are a thousand kilograms in a ton.
A ton pasture hay in the growing region costs around $300 per ton ATM.
30 cents a kilogram. (Cartage costs from growing area to consumption area, extra)
Maintaining adult dry stock in condition costs about 5-10 kg of pasture hay a day or $1.50 a day.
Assume 5 kg.
Say $550 a year. This can be reduced if there is a bit of dry feed left out in the paddocks and if you are prepared to allow your cow to lose significant weight while still staying alive. There is a management lower limit below which the cow’s weight becomes so bad that full and quick recovery is questionable.
Animal cruelty be dammed.
To fully inform Mr Jones’ tear-raddled benchmark, $550 per annum is roughly what it takes to keep a totally hand-fed cow alive.
If there are 5 million cows in the drought areas (and I have no idea how many are in the drought areas) then you are looking at around half a billion a year just to keep them alive with no productive function.
I can only assume that Mr Jones is deploying his vast stores of hard-earned wealth to this end.
They will not gain weight. They will not give milk. They will not raise a calf. They will just stay alive.
What is happening in fact is that slaughter rates have increased to record levels as farmers find that it is no longer financially viable to keep hand feeding stock.
Boerwar:
[‘Two spivs a’spivving.
Jones would be in Dutton’s corner, I assume.’]
I think so. He seems to like authoritarian men.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/boris-johnson-close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions
Boris to create a new Gibraltar…
Hmmmmm.
Klobuchar – Buttigieg ticket anyone?
Speaker Pelosi rips Trump for violating his oath of office: ‘All roads seem to lead to Putin’
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) held a press conference on Tuesday following a meeting of the House Democratic Caucus.
Before her press conference started, it was reported that she informed House Democrats that there would not be a formal vote authorizing an impeachment inquiry.
She specifically mentioned Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin.
“It undermines our national security. We were sending that military assistance because of Ukraine needing that vis-à-vis Russia, all roads seem to lead to Putin with the president, though,” she said.
She said Trump was violating his “oath of office to protect, defend, and preserve the Constitution of the United States.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/speaker-pelosi-rips-trump-for-violating-his-oath-of-office-all-roads-seem-to-lead-to-putin/
I think Emma is right to be wary…
It’s a shame she’s not in parliament as an Independent.
I hear the proposal is for Ireland to be de jure subject to UK customs law but de facto subject to EU customs law.
The EU is crazy to offer this, and Parliament should kill it dead. If they don’t, I expect Johnson to immediately tell the EU to fuck off with their “de facto” jurisdiction just as soon as the deal becomes official.
Is she still spurning your advances Rex?