The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.
Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.
The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.
UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.
Climate change is not “just an environmental issue” (flawed though that construct is). Labor has failed to frame it as an issue of livelihoods, fairness, and survival. People are losing their livelihoods because of climate change, people are being treated unfairly because of climate change, and people’s very survival is in peril. Labor never gives voters any reason to consider action on climate change as a positive thing that actually makes people’s lives better. Instead they accept the LNP and fossil fuel lobby framing of “This will cost too much, be too painful, like getting a root canal etc.” This frame is totally false and utterly devoid of imagination and vigour. Labor don’t really understand the stakes involved. They still see society as separate from the natural world rather than embedded in it.
There’s been a paradigm shift for those who haven’t caught on yet.
P1
Seriously, what are you trying to achieve here? You’re not going to get a sudden announcement from Labor by banging on about its climate change policies day after day. The process is the process.
If you’ve given up on Labor doing anything, why are you wasting your time posting about it?
I can understand wanting to deplore a lack of action, but to do so endlessly for days on ends seems not only pointless but obsessive.
Player One @ #399 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:08 pm
You love groupy thinky. It makes it easier for you to sleaze all associated with the Labor Party. I really don’t care.
Your posts show someone with a very, very narrow perspective on the political process. God bless your obsession.
I’m proposing that the Greens are an anchor with a few rats marooned which Labor needs to cast off. The sooner the better for our chances of winning Government.
Confessions @ #400 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:14 pm
Capable, yes. But willing? Given recent flirtations with pro-coal policy within the Federal Labor party, and the clear pro-coal bias within some of the State Labor parties, this is not quite so clear.
It has become clear to me that for some Labor supporters, if being pro-coal could guarantee them an election win, they would be all in favor of it.
zoomster @ #403 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:19 pm
Clearly, I have not given up on Labor doing something. I want them to do something. I am disturbed by the number of Labor supporters here who don’t want Labor to do anything.
Nicholas
As someone who’s fronted up to TV, radio and newspaper interviews, chaired and spoken to public forums, to talk about Labor’s climate change policies — you’re wrong.
We get back to — it’s not what is said that gets reported, it’s what the media airs that does.
You can have the most carefully crafted, incisive, cut through messages in the world, if no one reports them, they never existed.
The most pertinent example of that was the 2010 election. Labor had a climate change policy, Julia Gillard announced it, the media didn’t cover it — and I had voters telling me at the booths that Labor didn’t have a climate change policy, when it clearly did.
Player One @ #406 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:22 pm
We’ll have a review.
Satisfied now!
Greensborough Growler @ #404 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:20 pm
Clearly, you do.
Well from what I’m seeing it’s clear to me your ‘clarity’ is somewhat clouded. Labor are in opposition. I know that’s hard for you to accept, but it’s the reality.
Seriously, P1, deal with the loss and move on.
P1
I think you’re misunderstanding what people here are saying.
And regardless, there’s only a handful of actual Labor members who post here. Their view is their view, not necessarily the party’s (just as my views are my views…)
If you feel – as you obviously do – that there is a need for urgent action, you’re not going to get it by picking arguments with people on this blog.
Greensborough Growler @ #408 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:24 pm
No. What’s to review, FFS?
The science? Don’t make me laugh.
The policies? You have already had almost every possible one.
How to con people into believing you can be pro-environment at the same time as being pro-coal? Now, that one I can believe. But this approach has really worked well up till now, hasn’t it?
Confessions @ #410 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:24 pm
Opposition is the right place to develop policies. But some Labor people here are literally saying “We will tell you our policy when we get into government”.
This is what gets me annoyed 🙁
Player One @ #409 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:24 pm
I’ve moved on and dealing with the future in the best way I can. I don’t pretend that I’m absolutely right. But, equally, I’m not overly concerned with past failures.
Winning the next election will take more than appeasing your obsessions.
Politics is a moving feast.
Deal with it.
You sir are cancelled. Have a lovely day.
It seems like Labor are missing something out of their campaigns then.
Cause the media is not going to go away. Nor is it suddenly going to discover competence.
P1:
The election is 3 years away. It’s perfectly normal if not healthy for parties who lose elections to undertake a policy review. The Liberals haven’t reviewed their policy platform since losing office in 2007, which is likely why the party doesn’t have an effective policy for addressing GHGEs. And they’re the government!
I think you’re expectations of Labor at this point in the electoral cycle are far too unreasonable to be honest.
WeWantPaul @ #416 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:36 pm
Indeed. You would think Labor would learn from its election loss, not just plan to repeat the same losing strategy all over again 🙁
Confessions @ #417 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:37 pm
My expectations of Labor are no longer very high.
We were inundated here on PB for weeks by various Labor supporters posting utterly ludicrous pro-coal propaganda.
Ask yourself “why?”
P1
Oh, for heaven’s sake, don’t try and start up a conspiracy theory!
If ‘various Labor supporters’ are posting opinions on an issue, just accept that that’s an expression of their own personal take on the political situation.
If there’s been a missive from Head Office, I’ve certainly missed it.
The fact that Labor’s backroom strategists believe environmental policy to be the overriding reason behind the past decade of electoral humiliations, without giving an ounce of consideration to the party’s enduring perceived fiscal incompetence, is why (in spite of whatever the next three years has in store for us) I’ve pretty much already given away the next election.
That elephant in the room is feeling more and more neglected by the hour, guys. It really is high time the RSPCA paid a visit.
Don’t know about other states but in WA head office is too busy ensuring all preselections are rigged to get anywhere near talking points. On the contrary I kept sending my local member pictures of signs put up by Govt Authorities that suggested the Labor Govt wasn’t going to keep its own promises.
I got a thanks. And lots of swearing. The signs didn’t come down and are probably still there.
P1:
I haven’t seen any Labor supporter post here pro-coal propaganda.
What I have seen, however is endless screeds of text anguishing and hand-wringing about what the opposition intends to do about AGW now that it has the happy fortune of being…..the opposition!
Meanwhile there is one party that has the capability to act on climate change right now, but is unwilling to do so. Strange that I don’t see much in the way of anguish about that, despite so many PBers claiming that climate change is the numero uno issue du jour for them.
Tristo @ 4.05 pm
Great post!
I always enjoy and usually agree with your posts. Interesting to see that you too agree with posts by Doug Cameron and Van Badham. This is about where I sit politically.
zoomster @ #420 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:45 pm
Just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean you are not out to get me! 🙂
Confessions @ #423 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:49 pm
Really? I find that a little surprising. I could name the particular names, but I don’t really see the point. If you can’t see it, you can’t see it.
It is about policy formulation. Labor is in that process now. So now is the time to comment on – and perhaps even influence – that process.
No-one seriously expects the Coalition to act on climate change, so why waste the angst? Labor could act – at least at a State level – if they chose to do so. But at the state level they seems to be either ambiguous, or positively pro-coal.
Player One @ #425 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:50 pm
Head Office has no record of your existence.
Greensborough Growler @ #427 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:57 pm
Yuo have no idea how relieved I am to hear that! 🙂
The Climate Emergency Declarations across the country appears to be a campaign method that some are seeking.
Local groups working, shire by shire, community by community, rural and urban across the country to keep up the pressure and show just how many local communities are concerned and want action. Promoting more knowledge and understanding of what climate change means for local communities across the country and the level of government that deals with some of the most day to day elements of life, roads, water, rubbish, development, public facilities and amenities. The most severe weather event damage, be it fire, storm or flood, is usually dealt with ultimately by local government, even if it takes literally years to get money from state and federal disaster funding.
Though only political parties really committed to recognising the need to plan and act rapidly to de-carbonise the economy could get onboard and support such a campaign and declaration. I’m sure this will continue as an issue despite whatever spin either major party tries to put on it, and not just in Australia but globally. As a campaign motto, the seas are rising and so are we, appears to have a long way to run.
Seems Republican Senators are abandoning Trump atm.
Seeing reports that Trump wants a deal to protect him and his immediate family.
All other hands are overboard.
UI @ #373 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:28 pm
Meaning that’s a thing to be doing right now. Because, well:
…simple (seriously Tesla, implement better reports), but speaks for itself. Batteries are cheap enough and large enough already.
I don’t believe it, someone like you must have put your headup enough to get into the ALP campaign database. They know who you are, they know where you live. There coming at you.
WeWantPaul @ #432 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 7:08 pm
I suppose my being a former ALP member means that what you say is probably true 🙁
Not trying to be mean, but if you think that’s what you’re doing, you are sorely mistaken.
What? Where are you seeing that?
Confessions @ #434 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 7:09 pm
What’s influence if it doesn’t influence anyone?
Confessions @ #434 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 7:09 pm
Oh, at the very least, I think I have forced a few ALP members to sharpen up their arguments! 🙂
Confessions @ #435 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 7:11 pm
It’s in the twitterverse. So, it must be true!
More leaks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/29/us/politics/tom-bossert-trump-ukraine.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
I see we’ve managed to reach the end of time.
https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1177280910514884609/Ods8jK7q?format=jpg&name=small
GG:
It sounds like fake news to me.
Confessions @ #435 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 7:11 pm
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-just-six-senate-votes-away-impeachment-651857
GG:
That article is over a month old. And in any case, if and when Trump is impeached, McConnell needs to allow a trial to start in the Senate. He may not, in which case it doesn’t matter how many GOP Senators want him out.
Confessions @ #442 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 7:26 pm
You’re right. Trump is not under any pressure and will deal with his current predicament in the usual way.
Nicholas says:
Monday, September 30, 2019 at 6:17 pm
Climate change is not “just an environmental issue” (flawed though that construct is). Labor has failed …..
Climate change is an issue the Greens use to berate Labor.
to frame it as an issue of livelihoods, fairness, and survival. People are losing their livelihoods because of climate change….
Yes. I know. I’m one of these people. Over 90% of the jobs that existed in my industry in 2000 have been destroyed because of climate change. Tell me something I don’t know.
……people are being treated unfairly because of climate change, and people’s very survival is in peril.
You don’t say…..
Labor never gives voters any reason to consider action on climate change as a positive thing that actually makes people’s lives better. Instead they accept the LNP and fossil fuel lobby framing of “This will cost too much, be too painful, like getting a root canal etc.” This frame is totally false and utterly devoid of imagination and vigour. Labor don’t really understand the stakes involved. They still see society as separate from the natural world rather than embedded in it.
This is entirely false. Entirely. In every particular. The political costs of trying to effect change in relation to the environment have been borne by Labor. Labor’s enemies – the Greens and the Liberals – have derived substantial political profits from Labor’s attempts to respond to climate change.
The environment is is used in order to campaign against Labor….against working people…against social justice….against the concept of egalitarian progress.
Rex’s numbers, cited above, illustrate this very well. For every vote the Green campaign attracted to their candidates, 7 or 8 were sent from Labor to the Liberals. This is the nature of the campaign. This will not change unless the campaign changes.
The Greens know this. They do not care. They welcome it. They are determined to destroy Labor, whom they utterly despise.
doGs but i wish some of the Greens here would actually show a capacity to learn from the last election, particularly on how to frame issues.
The Greens put VAST amounts of effort into linking Climate Change to Adani. Became according to them the absolute test for credibility on Climate Change and nothing was good enough except absolute , public, vociferous complete rejection of it. They pursued this to extent of their rather badly timed “in your face idiot ignorant Queenlanders” convoy.
Yup, Climate Change is an existential threat. No argument from me on that. But, what the Greens did was give the Coalition vast opportunity to frame Climate Change in terms of jobs in seats they needed to hold or win and completely frark up the ALP’s attempts to run a more nuanced campaign that would not have alienated those Queensland voters.
Greens have to accept that they screwed up as least as much as anyone else on the left of politics, learn from that and move the fuck on. This pursuit of impotent purity may make them feel all warm and fuzzy but its a major impediment to any real action on climate which wont happen until the Coalition OUT of power. They need to actually learn to pick their battles given the prevailing political terrain with a view to achieving actual outcomes, rather than fostering their current ambitions as to more satisfying whinging circle jerks.
“imacca…..the Greens are not unknowing. ”
Me UI, …………am not yet at the stage of ascribing to malice that which can just as easily be accounted for by naive stupidity. Greens need to learn some lessons (not all of them pretty) from the adults.
The Greens have learnt from their past stupidity that there is no limit to stupidity.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, September 30, 2019 at 5:34 pm
More of Labor’s vote went Right than Left.
Anyone for cricket ❓
Goodnight all. 📺🏏💤