Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The fourth Newspoll since its wrong call at the election continues to credit the Coalition with only a modest lead on two-party preferred, with the minor parties continue to lift and Scott Morrison recording the opposite of a US visit bounce.

The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.

The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.

UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,439 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Scott Morrison won the election for the Coalition, Clive Palmer played a role as well. Because Morrison is a marketing genius and knows how to “work” the politically disengaged. Politically engaged people see through Morrison, however not the politically disengaged.

    Although I have to admit Labor’s campaigning was terrible and formulation of policies, it should have kept the message as simple as possible. Also it needed to seriously challenge the lies in the disinformation campaign which was waged.

    No doubt the Coalition will deploy an even more well developed and sophisticated disinformation campaign next time around.

  2. C@t

    You seem to be implying that the majority of the electorate are either rich, or Howard’s aspirationals. Therefore to win an election, Labor will have to move “right”. Is that what you mean?

  3. lizzie says: Monday, September 30, 2019 at 4:13 pm

    UI

    I thought when you changed your name from Briefly that you might tone down your ‘doomed’ rhetoric and try to be just a tiny bit more positive, even perhaps making a few helpful suggestions. You seem to want to drag us all down with you.

    ***************************************************

    My local Gippsland morning radio presenter was in such a dilemma this morning – “what a decision – do I watch The Real Dirty Dancing or The Masked Singer …….. I cant cope ….

    Yep we are royally fucked …..

    Goodbye Cruel World …….

    Chill Pill UI …… you have done your best – but THEY just don’t care …..

    I blame Chemtrails for the dumbing down of US …. 🙂

  5. Thank you sp much to everyone who responded to my late night ramble. You support and suggestions are very helpful. It is taking me s long time and a lot of effort to get my house into a reasonable standar, with boxes and things to deal with, as well as a couple of breakins and burgulary. But two Bludger/Pubsters have gone way above the line of duty to help me.
    Thank you.
    Puffy

  6. Player One @ #361 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 4:27 pm

    Tristo @ #351 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 4:15 pm

    Scott Morrison won the election for the Coalition …

    I don’t think Morrison “won” the election. Labor lost it. Badly.

    This is what so many Labor supporters seem unable to accept. They are still in denial. Things will only start to improve for Labor once they get over this.

    I don’t think it will take long for voters to see through ScoMo’s act.

    The question is if Labor doesn’t shift their current trajectory, how many votes will the Greens and others pick up from the 2 major parties …?

  7. Player One @ #356 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 4:27 pm

    Tristo @ #351 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 4:15 pm

    Scott Morrison won the election for the Coalition …

    I don’t think Morrison “won” the election. Labor lost it. Badly.

    This is what so many Labor supporters seem unable to accept. They are still in denial. Things will only start to improve for Labor once they get over this.

    Labor lost it because they couldn’t beat Scrott.
    Scrott was all over Labor like a rash.
    Scrott won.
    Scrott beat Labor.
    The idea that Labor shot itself in the foot is too easy.
    Even I see that now.

  8. Rex Douglas @ #358 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 4:33 pm

    Player One @ #361 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 4:27 pm

    Tristo @ #351 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 4:15 pm

    Scott Morrison won the election for the Coalition …

    I don’t think Morrison “won” the election. Labor lost it. Badly.

    This is what so many Labor supporters seem unable to accept. They are still in denial. Things will only start to improve for Labor once they get over this.

    I don’t think it will take long for voters to see through ScoMo’s act.

    The question is if Labor doesn’t shift their current trajectory, how many votes will the Greens and others pick up from the 2 major parties …?

    ‘I don’t think it will take long for voters to see through ScoMo’s act.’
    Oh deary me. (facepalm)

  9. mundo @ #357 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 4:35 pm

    Labor lost it because they couldn’t beat Scrott.
    Scrott was all over Labor like a rash.
    Scrott won.
    Scrott beat Labor.
    The idea that Labor shot itself in the foot is too easy.
    Even I see that now.

    What is that famous quote about insanity? Something about “doing the same thing over and over, but expecting different results”?

    That’s Labor at present.

  10. Goodness gracious me. Morrison has caught the Greens disease. It is all Labor’s fault for stoking international tensions with China.

    Now, Morrison has probably read the Newspoll stats that show that Australians are twice as likely to prefer the Americans over the Chinese.

    But, hey Scotty, if the Chinese switch off the students and the tourists to remind you of who really has us by the nads, you’re goooooooooooooooorn.

  11. #TOFUCONVOYONPB

    Is it only 11 years to go before the Greens deliver zero net emissions.

    After 30 years winning election after election, it must all be coming with a rush.

  12. I thought when you changed your name from Briefly that you might tone down your ‘doomed’ rhetoric and try to be just a tiny bit more positive

    Every other sentence isn’t ending with something about “*-Kin” now. That’s a small positive. 🙂

  14. lizzie @ #360 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 4:19 pm

    C@t

    You seem to be implying that the majority of the electorate are either rich, or Howard’s aspirationals. Therefore to win an election, Labor will have to move “right”. Is that what you mean?

    Quite the opposite, lizzie. Labor needs to be in the middle, with the Middle and Working Class. But we can accept the votes of the well-educated and wealthy too. 🙂

  15. The Libs haven’t had a Climate policy for years. They keep on winning elections.

    Having defined policies on Climate Change leaves Labor open to nitpicking from the left and scare mongering from the right. Meanwhile voters yawn.

    Labor should become vague and mysterious on Climate Change and just campaign on the bread and butter issues of the economy. That’s apparently, what voters are interested in.

    Labor should work to incorporate environmental policies in to their decision making. But, not be too specific, alarmist or anti-development.

    Sure I read there is broad support for action on Climate Change. but, those same polls and lived reality says that the support is not particularly deep once those same voters are confronted with the need for personal sacrifice.

    Leave the hysteria and stunts to the Greens and their fellow travellers.

  17. Is it only 11 years to go before the Greens deliver zero net emissions.

    Left alone the market would probably deliver this itself for the electricity generation industry in that timeframe. If the Govt invested in some of the needed infrastructure, and stopped subsidizing coal it could be half that time.

    Transport is going to depend on the manufacturers, and getting old bombs off the road, but within 10 years you can expect buying ICE vehicles to be a difficult challenge. Unless we are buying ones the rest of the world are discarding.

    Leaves really important research to replace jet fuels, and coal in steel manufacturing. Some are already tipping green hydrogen as a jet fuel replacement.

    It isn’t that hard or that far away. Even without a will. With a will it is all almost within reach now.

  19. So in other words, do exactly what Shorten did not even 6 months ago?

    Harsh but fair. Surprising really voters didn’t respond more positively to a foot firmly on each side of the barbwire fence. Normally they love that kind of cowardice.

  20. Reallocated money – as usual.

    As Australia grapples with extended drought across the country – in many places, the worst on record – the Coalition has been talking up its $7bn drought package in support of “struggling farming families”.

    Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon has called it the “most audacious lie” he has ever heard in politics, saying very little of the $7bn is actually hitting the ground in drought affected communities.

    The government has been unable to provide details of the spending to back up the claim.

    Where does the $7bn figure come from?
    Most of the $7bn has not been spent. The bulk of the $7bn figure is attributable to the government’s $5bn Future Drought Fund, which passed the parliament in July.

    The government established the fund with an initial $3.9bn credit, which was reallocated from an infrastructure fund set up by Labor called the Building Australia Fund.

    Earnings from the fund, which will be managed like the Medical Research Future Fund, will be reinvested into the drought fund until the balance reaches $5bn, which is expected to be achieved in 2028-29.

    Scott Morrison said the fund would ensure “money aside for non-rainy days in the future”.

    What is the $5bn Future Drought Fund being spent on?
    Nothing as yet.

    The fund starts making disbursements from July 1 next year, with $100m being made each year to support Australian farmers and communities to become more prepared for, and resilient to, the effects of drought.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/30/the-coalition-says-it-is-spending-7bn-on-drought-but-cant-back-up-the-claim?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1569828252

  21. If we actually discussed issues that were important to people generally, and not just bloody Climate Change day after day, which is of acute interest only to those who discuss it here day after bleeding day, then we would be getting very, very worried about the Coalition’s inquiry into Pensions and Retirement Income. As in, Voluntary Superannuation worried!

    Scott Morrison has left the door open to exploring the introduction of voluntary super for low-income workers in Australia, as he defended his appointments to a major retirement income review.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/superannuation/2019/09/30/scott-morrison-retirement-review/

    Don’t forget who the real enemy is!

  22. As soon as batteries become cheap enough and large enough to store and release electricity in bulk and on demand in the hours between 5.00 and 9.00 am and 4.00 til 8.00 pm then most electricity grids will switch almost entirely to renewables. Coal is already a loss maker. Gas would become obsolete as well.

    We could do worse than running best-new-battery competitions. The prize is the ability to operate in the global energy markets with a technological edge.

  23. To campaign on climate change is to campaign for the Liberals. Sad but true.

    To fail to address climate change makes you no better than the liberals.

  24. THE state’s water watchdog has alleged Whitehaven Coal is taking more water than it’s legally entitled to at its Maules Creek mine, after an investigation that lasted more than a year.

    In June 2018, the Natural Resources Access Regulator (NRAR) began looking into the matter, after receiving a report claiming the mine was capturing surface water run-off without the appropriate licences, exceeding its harvestable rights.

    NRAR concluded there were reasonable grounds to allege the mine was taking surface water unlawfully, as the mine does not have sufficient entitlements and does not fall under a licence exemption.

    https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/6413251/maules-creek-coal-mine-taking-water-illegally-water-watchdog-alleges/

  25. a r @ #366 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:08 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #366 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:05 pm

    Labor should become vague and mysterious on Climate Change and just campaign on the bread and butter issues of the economy. That’s apparently, what voters are interested in.

    So in other words, do exactly what Shorten did not even 6 months ago?

    Clearly, Bill was far too specific not only on environment but on other reforms. Otherwise, he probably would not have lost.

  26. lizzie @ #377 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:27 pm

    Reallocated money – as usual.

    As Australia grapples with extended drought across the country – in many places, the worst on record – the Coalition has been talking up its $7bn drought package in support of “struggling farming families”.

    Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon has called it the “most audacious lie” he has ever heard in politics, saying very little of the $7bn is actually hitting the ground in drought affected communities.

    The government has been unable to provide details of the spending to back up the claim.

    Where does the $7bn figure come from?
    Most of the $7bn has not been spent. The bulk of the $7bn figure is attributable to the government’s $5bn Future Drought Fund, which passed the parliament in July.

    The government established the fund with an initial $3.9bn credit, which was reallocated from an infrastructure fund set up by Labor called the Building Australia Fund.

    Earnings from the fund, which will be managed like the Medical Research Future Fund, will be reinvested into the drought fund until the balance reaches $5bn, which is expected to be achieved in 2028-29.

    Scott Morrison said the fund would ensure “money aside for non-rainy days in the future”.

    What is the $5bn Future Drought Fund being spent on?
    Nothing as yet.

    The fund starts making disbursements from July 1 next year, with $100m being made each year to support Australian farmers and communities to become more prepared for, and resilient to, the effects of drought.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/30/the-coalition-says-it-is-spending-7bn-on-drought-but-cant-back-up-the-claim?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1569828252

    They NDIS has a fund allocated but there’s an underspend as well.

    There’s a pattern emerging here…

  28. Greensborough Growler @ #382 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:31 pm

    a r @ #366 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:08 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #366 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:05 pm

    Labor should become vague and mysterious on Climate Change and just campaign on the bread and butter issues of the economy. That’s apparently, what voters are interested in.

    So in other words, do exactly what Shorten did not even 6 months ago?

    Clearly, Bill was far too specific not only on environment but on other reforms. Otherwise, he probably would not have lost.

    The Greens were even more specific on climate change …and their vote grew in Qld.

  30. WeWantPaul @ #373 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:29 pm

    To campaign on climate change is to campaign for the Liberals. Sad but true.

    To fail to address climate change makes you no better than the liberals.

    What does “failure to address climate change” actually mean? Is it a postal address? Is it just cliched wanky rhetoric? Do voters actually give a damn?

  31. If we actually discussed issues that were important to people generally, and not just bloody Climate Change day after day, which is of acute interest only to those who discuss it here day after bleeding day

    It isn’t like it is the most important issue.

    oh wait no it is, you are right it shouldn’t be discussed but there are lots of idiots who don’t appreciate just how big and how urgent an issue it is. And until they do, or we setup climate crimes tribunals to start executing people, it is the single most important issue.

    Your super isn’t going to do you a lot of good if you are killed in an extreme climate event over the Christmas hols.

  32. Oooops.

    Juanita Hardy @Pikiran2ku
    26m

    @ScottMorrisonMP

    We’re in Yorke Peninsula council area (Grey:R.Ramsey, Lib.) & have made it onto the $1mill list. We’ve had below-average rainfall but it’s fallen when needed & the crops here are generally looking fantastic. We’re definitely not in drought.

  33. Do voters actually give a damn?

    If only massive numbers of people were marching around the globe each Friday!

    No wait they are. They are right.

  34. Obviously the Greens were successful in the last election.

    Their platform, their electioneering, and their personalities delivered them government after only 30 years of failure to do much to disturb the scorers.

    ‘Winners are grinners,’ observed Di Natale after the event, going on to add, ‘We now have eleven short years to phase out coal mining, coal exports and coal generation.’

    Obviously in an expansive mood, Di Natale offered to give Labor some useful lessons in how to win government. ‘Just copy us 100% and Labor, too, could be winning government all the time.’

  35. Greensborough Growler @ #375 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:31 pm

    Clearly, Bill was far too specific not only on environment but on other reforms. Otherwise, he probably would not have lost.

    Even now, Labor supporters seem to have very little idea what the party policy on climate change actually was. Or currently is. Or soon will be.

    Labor has held so many positions on climate policy – including adopting the government’s own policies, before they dumped them – that this is not really surprising.

  36. Greensborough Growler @ #387 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:36 pm

    WeWantPaul @ #373 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:29 pm

    To campaign on climate change is to campaign for the Liberals. Sad but true.

    To fail to address climate change makes you no better than the liberals.

    What does “failure to address climate change” actually mean? Is it a postal address? Is it just cliched wanky rhetoric? Do voters actually give a damn?

    Do you actually ‘give a damn’ about climate change ?

  37. ‘lizzie says:
    Monday, September 30, 2019 at 5:38 pm

    Oooops.

    Juanita Hardy @Pikiran2ku
    26m

    @ScottMorrisonMP

    We’re in Yorke Peninsula council area (Grey:R.Ramsey, Lib.) & have made it onto the $1mill list. We’ve had below-average rainfall but it’s fallen when needed & the crops here are generally looking fantastic. We’re definitely not in drought.’

    Indeed:

    https://pir.sa.gov.au/primary_industry/crops_and_pastures/crop_and_pasture_reports

    But whatever is it about vote-buying pork barrelling that Ms Hardy does not understand?

  39. UI @ #372 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:28 pm

    As soon as batteries become cheap enough and large enough to store and release electricity in bulk and on demand in the hours between 5.00 and 9.00 am and 4.00 til 8.00 pm then most electricity grids will switch almost entirely to renewables. Coal is already a loss maker. Gas would become obsolete as well.

    Right. And between the hours of 8:00 pm and 5:00 am we do … what, exactly? Pray by candlelight?

  40. Player One @ #385 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:42 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #375 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:31 pm

    Clearly, Bill was far too specific not only on environment but on other reforms. Otherwise, he probably would not have lost.

    Even now, Labor supporters seem to have very little idea what the party policy on climate change actually was. Or currently is. Or soon will be.

    Labor has held so many positions on climate policy – including adopting the government’s own policies, before they dumped them – that this is not really surprising.

    As I said, the best practice process is not to have anything but vague feel good statements.

    It’s done the Libs wonders.

    But, thank you for your preferences

  41. Even now, Labor supporters seem to have very little idea what the party policy on climate change actually was. Or currently is. Or soon will be.

    I’m a labor member.

    The Victorian and SA labor Govt’s seemed ‘firm’ on practical measures.

    Qld Labor is an absolute mess that should be shut down. WA Labor is one of the best Liberal Govts WA has had in 50 years, but some of us who worked in the campaign were hoping for a Labor Govt.

    Who knows what the Federal ALP think from hour to hour.

  42. WeWantPaul @ #391 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:48 pm

    Even now, Labor supporters seem to have very little idea what the party policy on climate change actually was. Or currently is. Or soon will be.

    I’m a labor member.

    The Victorian and SA labor Govt’s seemed ‘firm’ on practical measures.

    Qld Labor is an absolute mess that should be shut down. WA Labor is one of the best Liberal Govts WA has had in 50 years, but some of us who worked in the campaign were hoping for a Labor Govt.

    Who knows what the Federal ALP think from hour to hour.

    Blah,! Blah! Blah!

  43. Boerwar @ #391 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:40 pm

    Obviously the Greens were successful in the last election.

    Their platform, their electioneering, and their personalities delivered them government after only 30 years of failure to do much to disturb the scorers.

    ‘Winners are grinners,’ observed Di Natale after the event, going on to add, ‘We now have eleven short years to phase out coal mining, coal exports and coal generation.’

    Obviously in an expansive mood, Di Natale offered to give Labor some useful lessons in how to win government. ‘Just copy us 100% and Labor, too, could be winning government all the time.’

    Queensland in 10 yrs time will be interesting to see given the current rate of bleeding from Labor.

    Down to 27% now.

    Wonder how Labors extinction up there will result in vote share to the LNP, Greens and others …?

  44. There are 650 million school-aged children in the world.

    I am not sure of the numbers who marched by my guess is that around 649 million school-aged children did not march.

  45. The fundamental paradox for the Greens is this:

    1. They say that if action is not taken on global warming now it will be too late.
    2. Accordingly they promise to deliver zero net emissions for Australia by 2030.
    3. On current trends they will not be forming government until 2040 at the earliest.
    By which time, according to the Greens, it will be too late.

    I have yet to meet a Greens who can resolve this yawning credibility chasm. Not one. They don’t even try.

  46. Greensborough Growler @ #390 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:48 pm

    As I said, the best practice process is not to have anything but vague feel good statements.

    It’s done the Libs wonders.

    But, thank you for your preferences

    The Libs already have that market cornered.

    Labor won’t win – with or without my preferences – unless they actually stand for something.

  48. Player One @ #396 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:55 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #390 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 5:48 pm

    As I said, the best practice process is not to have anything but vague feel good statements.

    It’s done the Libs wonders.

    But, thank you for your preferences

    The Libs already have that market cornered.

    Labor won’t win – with or without my preferences – unless they actually stand for something.

    The ground is far more fertile for Labor than you assert.

    It’s just you see politics only through the prism of Climate Change. it’s bigger than that.

    My reckoning is that you’ve got it wrong. The votes Labor needs to win Government are in the middle. I’m happy to shed those disgusted and angsty for the chance of forming Government. All Labor needs to be is slightly better than the Libs. Which is the only challenge for Labor here vis a vis Greens preferences.

  49. Greensborough Growler @ #398 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 6:01 pm

    All Labor needs to be is slightly better than the Libs. Which is the only challenge for Labor here vis a vis Greens preferences.

    You, frednk, briefly and others here are so obsessed with the Greens that you are completely missing the bigger picture.

    The Greens are irrelevant. Labor lost the last election by doing exactly what you are proposing they should keep doing.

    By some definitions that makes you insane, but that is perhaps a bit harsh. However, your failure to understand how fast the world is changing makes you relics at the very least.

  50. Wow what has happened to everyone lately? PB feels like an AA meeting without all the up front admissions of being addicted!

    The govt has no plans to do anything to abate our GHGEs, and in any case most Liberal and Nationals MPs don’t even accept the scientific reality of AGW, so nothing is going to get done on that front by a coalition govt for the foreseeable future.

    Labor is the only party willing to and capable of addressing climate change, with a demonstrable track record in office of acting on climate change. Therefore there is nothing whatsoever to suggest the next Labor govt will not try to reduce our nation’s carbon emissions.

    Chill out people. Jeez.

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