Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The fourth Newspoll since its wrong call at the election continues to credit the Coalition with only a modest lead on two-party preferred, with the minor parties continue to lift and Scott Morrison recording the opposite of a US visit bounce.

The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.

The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.

UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,439 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 7 of 29
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  1. PuffyTMD
    I am slow in response, but here are a few ideas.

    – The local shire/city council will have information about activities for “seniors”
    – Ask at the local pool if there is an aquarobics class or something similar
    – Find out if there is a local U3A. You may not want to Beginners’ French or Chinese, but there are other groups such as painting, or walking, or bonsai
    – Volunteer to help at an op-shop to make new friends
    – Seek out a local advice bureau to see if they will train volunteer helpers.
    – Or lifeline – ditto
    – A local museum can always use volunteer guides

  2. Fess
    I am finding pessimism to be the best defence against disappointment.

    But it could be Trump has outlived his usefulness and a new puppet is wanted.

  5. Victoria says: Monday, September 30, 2019 at 2:58 pm

    PhoenixRed

    I believe those considerations have been factored in. He wont have the opportunity

    ****************************************************************

    Victoria, I guess I was asking – who, if anyone, is left in the WH to stop/override any of Trumps decisions – already he has had “Civil War” mentioned in one or more of his maniacal Sunday tweets …… and with Iran, Korea etc etc on the backburner ……. WHO defies the President if he goes rouge ?????

  6. Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    1h1 hour ago
    I do need to note that the President of the United States of America is threatening a civil war if he isn’t allowed to operate outside the law, and to operate without any accountability for his actions.

    He seems nice.

    How much more ammunition do Republicans need? This is the chance to remove him from office.

    Yes he will run again next year, but having seen the shit show of the past 4 years, would he even win the nomination for the GOP?

  7. Thanks, Phylactella.
    I will look at those suggestions. I do plan to return to university next year to do a writing course. I realised I have at three people’s stories to tell, one being mine.

    It is a daunting thought, and like everything I achieve, from now on it hurts that my Mum won’t see it.

    I graduated from uni, her only child to do so. As Meoldema was functionally illiterate and valued education highly (like any good Labor woman) she hung my degree on her lounge-room wall for all to see. 🙂

    My degree was care of the great Gough Whitlam and that Labor government, long may his memory be honoured.

  10. “Labor desperately needs to be AOCed or Thunberged on a large scale” …

    OK … I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that AOC and Greta are as relatable to the good burghers of Logan, Glenmoe Park, Aspley, Rockhampton and Townsville etc etc as … Bob Brown and the Black Wiggle.

    Thanks Nicholas, but Labor will Pass on your gratuitous advice. That said, I reckon an antipodean AOC would do wonders for the Greens end game of securing Albo’s seat for the Soviets once he retires. Certainly better than the wiggle. I’ll suggest that to Jamie Parker next time I bump into him.

  11. PhoenixRed

    Of course Trump is doing his level best to sow the seeds of discord amongst his cult.
    Trumps tweetstorm has been nothing short of disgraceful
    And even more disgraceful, is those who continue to support him.

  13. Confessions @ #307 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 3:07 pm

    Yes he will run again next year

    Will he?

    I guess technically impeachment doesn’t in itself disqualify a person from running again. But I assume impeachment would be followed by criminal prosecution for any of the many illegal and fraudulent things Trump has been involved with before and during his presidency. And while even that isn’t technically disqualifying, Trump would find it hard to run an effective re-election campaign from behind bars.

  16. Confessions says: Monday, September 30, 2019 at 3:07 pm

    Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    1h1 hour ago
    I do need to note that the President of the United States of America is threatening a civil war if he isn’t allowed to operate outside the law, and to operate without any accountability for his actions.

    He seems nice.

    How much more ammunition do Republicans need? This is the chance to remove him from office.

    ************************************************

    This is the “Caine Mutiny” in reality when after many many bad and questionable decisions by a paranoid Captain, the next in command decides to invoke Navy Article 184: ( “It is conceivable that most unusual and extraordinary circumstances may arise in which the relief from duty of a commanding officer by a subordinate becomes necessary.” ) when the ship is foundering in a typhoon …..

    Trump may have met his typhoon and maybe not a constitutional coup via the 25th Amendment, but a determination to stand up to a president who is temperamentally and intellectually unsuited for the office….. and get him to resign gracefully ( unlikely but ….. )

  17. lizzie @ #297 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 2:44 pm

    UI

    Yes, we are in trouble because the utterly inept Morrison govt has no concept of planning for the future. All they ever do is react, and react with obfuscation, spin and lies. They don’t seem to have two brains to rub together, and this myth that Morrison is “clever” is nonsense. He’s just an artful dodger.

    Brilliant, lizzie! Scott Morrison the Aussie Artful Dodger. I’m filing that one away for future use. 😀

  21. phoenixRed:

    While there are so many enablers surrounding him, there will be no quiet resignation.

    I will wait to see whether the prediction from the Mooch as to more whistleblowers to come amounts to anything.

  22. Victoria @ #323 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 3:19 pm

    C@t

    You gotta wonder how bad the kompromat must be for Lindsey and his kabuki act

    Pretty damn incriminating, is my guess. The sort of stuff that the Ballarat Catholic Diocese from days of yore would applaud maybe. America does A Grade deviants and sociopaths.
    Signed,
    Person who has been binge watching ‘Orange Is the New Black’. 😉

  24. C@t

    Well I guess it is either of a sexual nature, or a dark money one. Either way, its bad enough for Lindsey to be a total sell out and hypocrite.

  28. Wow

    There you have it. It’s the values not the geographic location the right wing hacks are talking about with Labor on this site.

    Suddenly succesful Labor governments don’t represent the rest of the country.

    Doyley

    It was not me saying the ACT was representative of all Australians. I was saying It proves as with other successful Labor governments running to the right has never worked out too well for Labor.

    I was making a ridiculous parody comment in response to a ridiculous comment I received about the ACT. Yes of course the vote was different. That’s the entire point. Saying that’s because they are geographically far away from Queensland doesn’t cut it.

    The ACT of any part of the country should be more conservative and establishment because of the public service. Not in spite of it. That’s really the only thing that makes it different. It’s also right on the edge of what has been a traditional bellwether seat.

    So anyone arguing the ACT is very different and not some success to seriously look at is talking BS.

  29. Andrew_Earlwood @ #272 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 2:20 pm

    thanks largely to the likes of you and the Greens environmental policies are completely toxic to those particular sector of voters that actually count. Sad but true.

    LOL! You only have yourselves to blame on this one, and I think you probably realize it. The voters certainly do.

    Your ongoing attempt to blame the Greens for your own failings is becoming rather lame.

  30. A few weeks ago, one of our geese was killed by a fox whilst sitting on eggs.

    We rescued the eggs and put them in the incubator, and they hatched a couple of days ago.

    I spent a couple of hours today sitting in the veggie garden with seven goslings, all of whom think I’m their mother and want to spend their lives sitting in my lap.

    Cuteness overload.

  31. zoomster @ #277 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 2:24 pm

    P1

    ‘Why would anyone vote for a party that says “We will decide on our policies once you elect us”.

    Ask people who vote Liberal, not us.

    Don’t fool yourself. The Liberals don’t need policies the same way Labor does. People know exactly what the Liberals stand for. They don’t know what Labor stands for. And who can blame them for that?

  32. Victoria says: Monday, September 30, 2019 at 3:26 pm

    Fess

    There will be more revelations to come in next few weeks. I am expecting people to be shocked.

    ************************************************************

    Once Putin thinks that Trump ( and their conversations become public ) is of no further use – then expect kompromat in Russia and Epstein files to be released in all sorts of on-line media

  35. Andrew_Earlwood @ #310 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 3:11 pm

    OK … I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that AOC and Greta are as relatable to the good burghers of Logan, Glenmoe Park, Aspley, Rockhampton and Townsville etc etc as … Bob Brown and the Black Wiggle.

    The trouble with Labor is that it is a party full of backroom electoral tacticians, but it apparently has no strategists 🙁

  37. It is the case that the Green campaign drives voters into the arms of the grateful Liberals. Labor are not responsible for this. The Greens are. The Liberals have set themselves up as counter-weights to the Greens. They have been collecting bonus votes. They must be very very amused.

  38. https://indaily.com.au/opinion/2019/09/30/inaccurate-short-on-facts-and-substance-marshalls-press-release-response-to-murray-inquiry/

    (Richard Beasley SC was senior counsel assisting the Murray-Darling Basin Royal Commission.)

    The SA Government response to the commissioner’s findings and recommendations (see below) is 26 pages. Half of its content consists of photographs. These include a photo of a man pushing a button on a pump. There’s a photo of some grapevines. A few pages later, there’s another photo of grapevines (apparently, wine is made in South Australia). There is a photo of a tree by a river. It is a big tree. There is a photo of people standing around, some with hands in their pockets. One is holding a reed. They appear to be at a funeral, based on the solemn look on their faces. Perhaps it’s for the Murray River.

    There is nothing wrong with brevity. The Gettysburg Address, itself delivered on a solemn occasion, is just 271 words in length. No reasonable person could expect any government to reach the standards of Lincoln in its publications. But the citizens of South Australia – and especially those who give a damn about the state’s environment – are entitled to a comprehensive response to a Royal Commission report that concerns the state’s most precious resource: water.

    The SA Government’s response to the commissioner’s report is short on words, but also – and this makes it unacceptable as an official government document, tabled in parliament – it is short on crucial facts, and contains an inaccurate attack on the Royal Commissioner.

    In response, I’ll restrict myself to the most glaring omissions.

  39. Confessions says: Monday, September 30, 2019 at 2:59 pm

    Vic:

    I’m really trying not to let my hopes get up that this could genuinely be the beginning of the end of Trump’s Presidency!

    ***************************************************

    This you Confessions ????? 🙂 🙂 🙂

  41. The Liberals know that even if there are meta issues – the economy, the environment, climate change…to name just some – in the end voters need jobs and they need income security. Their pitch is all about these values. They signify placing these values ahead of the meta-songs. It works. It’s been working for a long time. The Green campaign and Labor’s recent campaign amplify the Lib messaging. Those of us on the reformist wing of opinion campaign against ourselves. We are Lib-amps.

  42. OK … I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that AOC and Greta are as relatable to the good burghers of Logan, Glenmoe Park, Aspley, Rockhampton and Townsville etc etc as … Bob Brown and the Black Wiggle.

    Thanks Nicholas, but Labor will Pass on your gratuitous advice.

    Ahhh another iteration of the Lindsay test, where the ALP assume the good voters of ‘place’ are stupid and racist and focus the entire campaign on trying to appeal to this assumed racism and stupidity and lose elections against morons like Abbott, and Morrison, and to spineless likes Turnbull. It takes a deep insanity to keep doing the wrong thing over and over and over again, sure it will work next time.

    The Labor MP’s and spivs are so very arrogant, they are so sure of their wisdom and virtue, but they keep losing to the f*cking morons. They are doing it very very wrong.

  44. Issues like environmental sustainability and climate change, divide Australia like Brexit
    does for Britain. Essentially an issue of identity, a badge representing a way of life.

    European Green Parties don’t face that in their respective countries. Therefore; it is possible for Green Parties to get well into double digits in the vote.

    The Australian Greens I predict will not able to achieve this, since there are significant blocs of the population and regions, where Greenies are hated and seen as a threat to their way of life. Not to mention the Australian Greens are essentially a middle-class inner city party, which puts them at a disadvantage in working class outer suburbs and regional cities.

    I have been reading and watching speeches by Doug Cameron, he absolutely gets it. Ideologically him and I are nearly identical. agenda, the same goes for commentator Van Badham. Not surprising since we come from working class backgrounds.

    In have worked in my life some tough, low paid work such as pick and pack in warehouses, being a dishwasher, working in a Hungry Jacks store and cleaning. Jobs such as that along with aged care, child care, disability work, health care etc, which are often dominated by women and low paid compared to similar occupations dominated by men.

    I would love Labor to fight for, what I would call a 21st century light on a hill. I would join the party in a heartbeat if that happened. Right now I am happy to join a union, when I get other work, because currently I am a Masters Student at UNE and driving taxis on the side. When I get around to getting aged care work at the end of the year, then I will join a union.

    Therefore; I think the sort of policies and message Labor should be broadcasting, as Cameron is advocating is the way to go. Of course, achieve for environmental sustainability and building new green industries. However, frame the message around addressing concerns such as wage growth, lack of job opportunities, the affordability of electricity, these are huge issues in the outer suburbs and regional cities. That is actually returning Labor back to it’s roots of being a party for the Workers and the Unions.

    Also, One Nation, Clive Palmer and the other right wing “populists” need to be mercilessly attacked as anti-worker and intellectually bankrupt, which they are. For example; Pauline Hanson not the Greens for instance is in favor of abolishing penalty rates, Jackie Lambie in certain circumstances not the Greens are happy to support union busting laws. They can’t be gotten away with portraying themselves as friends of workers.

    I am critical of the Australian Greens; however they aren’t Lib-Kin’s, that is reserved for One Nation, Jackie Lambie, and other right wing “populists”. One Nation and Jackie Lambie especially have proven themselves to be anti-worker and willing to collaborate with the Coalition in its brutal class war.

  45. in the end voters need jobs and they need income security

    The voters are way ahead of this analysis. They’ve lived 40 years of trickle down failing them. They want to throw the baby out with the bathwater and start again.

    The were a whole raft of issues that could have been used by Labor to signify this:

    * big industrial relations changes to make it safer and fairer for workers
    * robodebt scrapping
    * big pension increases
    * fixing the safety net

    but they were fiddling with the edges of a massive investment incentive they were going to leave almost entirely in place, other than affecting the cash out for a few pensioners. Turns out those pensioners had very high opinions of themselves and squealed very loudly. They didn’t even understand they were pensioners. They certainly weren’t self aware enough to realise they were filthy rich. Greedy evil scum.

  46. WWP

    We have to try to understand the basis of the Liberal appeal to voters. They keep on winning. There is no point denying it. They are much, much better at this game than their competitors are. Labor has succeeded federally just once in the last 26 years. Obviously we are not listening closely enough. Obviously we are not saying things that resonate with voters. We have to stop thinking about ourselves and think instead about voters….about what they identify with and what they want.

    Until we do this far more consistently, we will be outplayed by the Liberals and all who sail with them.

  47. Andrew_Earlwood @ #315 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 3:11 pm

    “Labor desperately needs to be AOCed or Thunberged on a large scale” …

    OK … I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that AOC and Greta are as relatable to the good burghers of Logan, Glenmoe Park, Aspley, Rockhampton and Townsville etc etc as … Bob Brown and the Black Wiggle.

    Thanks Nicholas, but Labor will Pass on your gratuitous advice. That said, I reckon an antipodean AOC would do wonders for the Greens end game of securing Albo’s seat for the Soviets once he retires. Certainly better than the wiggle. I’ll suggest that to Jamie Parker next time I bump into him.

    Seems the Greens and the environment are more relatable to those voters than Labor is.

    2019 election swings.
    Forde: Labor (-8.1%) Green (+2.3%)

    Lindsay: Labor (-5.5%) Green (+1.3%)

    Lilley: Labor (-8.1%) Greens (+2.3%)

    Capricornia: Labor (-14.3%) Greens (+0.1%)

    Herbert: Labor (-5.0%) Greens (+1.0%)

  48. WeWantPaul @ #350 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 3:59 pm

    OK … I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that AOC and Greta are as relatable to the good burghers of Logan, Glenmoe Park, Aspley, Rockhampton and Townsville etc etc as … Bob Brown and the Black Wiggle.

    Thanks Nicholas, but Labor will Pass on your gratuitous advice.

    Ahhh another iteration of the Lindsay test, where the ALP assume the good voters of ‘place’ are stupid and racist and focus the entire campaign on trying to appeal to this assumed racism and stupidity and lose elections against morons like Abbott, and Morrison, and to spineless likes Turnbull. It takes a deep insanity to keep doing the wrong thing over and over and over again, sure it will work next time.

    The Labor MP’s and spivs are so very arrogant, they are so sure of their wisdom and virtue, but they keep losing to the f*cking morons. They are doing it very very wrong.

    Only outdone by the AOC/Greta test. 😐

  49. UI

    I thought when you changed your name from Briefly that you might tone down your ‘doomed’ rhetoric and try to be just a tiny bit more positive, even perhaps making a few helpful suggestions. You seem to want to drag us all down with you.

  50. But what you don’t get, Tristo, is that the majority of the electorate, and that’s what wins elections for political parties, don’t choose to ‘get’ Van Badham, Doug Cameron, or your beliefs.

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