Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters chair James McGrath has floated another reform bubble, this time proposing that parliamentarians should be prevented from resigning from their parties under pain of either facing a by-election or being replaced by the nominee of the party for which they were elected. The Australian helpfully summarises recent situations where this would have applied: “Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus from the Palmer United Party, Cory Bernardi and Julia Banks from the Liberal Party, Fraser Anning and Rod Culleton from One Nation and Steve Martin from the Jacqui Lambie Network”. University of New South Wales constitutional law expert George Williams is quoted noting potential constitutional issues, particularly in relation to the lower house.
The proposal brings to mind the passage in New Zealand last year of what is colloquially known as the “waka jumping bill”, insisted upon by Winston Peters of New Zealand First as part of his coalition agreement with Labour after the 2017 election. This requires a constituency MP who quits their party to face a by-election, while party list MPs must vacate their seats and have them filled by the next candidate along from the list at the election. The move was poorly received by academics and the country’s Human Rights Commissioner, as it effectively gives party leaders the ability to dispense with troublemakers. It was also noted that Peters himself broke away from the National Party to form New Zealand First in 1990, but changed his tune after a split in his own party in 1998. However, the McGrath proposal would seem to be quite a lot less pernicious in that it would only apply to those who leave their parties of their own volition.
In other news, I had a paywalled article in Crikey on Tuesday regarding the YouGov methodological overhaul that was discussed here on Sunday, which said things like this:
Of course, transparency alone will not be sufficient for the industry to recover the strong reputation it held until quite recently. That will require runs on the board in the form of more-or-less accurate pre-election polls, for which no opportunity will emerge until the Queensland state election still over a year away. It’s far from certain that YouGov will prove able to get better results by dropping the telephone component of its polling, notwithstanding that phone polling is less conducive to the kind of detailed demographic parsing that it apparently has in mind. Nonetheless, the movements the pollster records over time within demographic and geographic sub-samples will almost certainly offer insights into the shifting sands of public opinion, even if skepticism will remain as to how it sees the numbers combining in aggregate.
I’m not sure when exactly we will see the fruits of YouGov’s approach, but we’re due some sort of Newspoll result on Sunday or Monday, and the fortnightly Essential Research falls due on Tuesday – we’re still waiting for the latter to resume voting intention, but I was told a little while ago it would happen soon.
Tristo
I’m going with a minority liberal govt for Canada.
Jenauthor
Congratulations to all!
jenauthor @ #1094 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 12:21 pm
Mild envy. Treasure the time.
Thanx guys!
BW
I’m guessing you missed my earlier post relating to your comment:
I really think you should provide some examples of the “anti-semitic tendency” in the ALP Left.
Congrats BK and Mrs. BK.
The first 50 years are the hardest. Mrs. Beguiled will second that, as she has for most of my thoughts over the the past 56 years.
Congratulations jenauthor!
I disagree.
“Cult” could be happily applied to all religions, old and new.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-29/why-cult-wrong-word-for-most-new-religious-movements/11546284
jenauthor says:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 12:23 pm
So I’m told Boer. … despite my protestations that I am too young to be a grandmother!
My 3 year old grandson is about to become an uncle. Stop your whinging, and congratulation.
Despite the frenzy of anti-Fran rhetoric this morning I found her hosting of Insiders to be professional and of a good standard. Of course she could have spat at a cardboard cut out of Morrison to appease some on here but that wouldn’t make her a good host of a political panel show.
nath
The interesting take away from insiders. No-one was willing to defend Morrison.
frednk @ #1109 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 1:12 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYlJH81dSiw
I just remembered. We’re supposed to get a Newspoll tonight.
Fwiw. 😐
I’ve just about forgotten about polls.
BiTB,
The premise of Cusack’s argument is she has no idea what a cult is or how it operates. If she did, she would come to the same conclusion as you.
Tristo says:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 11:32 am
@Victoria
I am predicting either a hung parliament or a narrow Liberal majority in the Canadian general election. Although I am leaning towards a minority Liberal government, with the NDP and or the Green party giving supply and confidence. I wonder if electoral reforms will be introduced to have the House of Commons elected by proportional representation, as the price the NDP and/or the Green party will demand for supporting a Liberal minority government.
———————————-
That’s a pretty good assessment. It could be replay of the 1972 election when his Dad lost his majority and scraped in with a minority government just four years after that first bout of Trudeaumania swept Canada. Fortunately for Pierre, the Tories at that time were led by a very decent but uncharismatic man, Robert Stanfield, who I first knew when he was Premier of Nova Scotia.
Justin too faces a Conservative leader who, one observer commented, has the charisma of a fence-post and whose only strategy is to demonize Trudeau. It’s right out of the Australian Tories’ “Kill Bill” playbook.
Fairfax’s Matthew Knott should have gone to you when he wrote his piece on the Canadian situation last week.
Instead he went to one of Justin Trudeau’s most vocal media critics. It was like going to our good friend Nath to get a character reference for Bill Shorten.
On the same day Knott wrote that piece trashing Justin, his principal source, Toronto Sun columnist Walter Kinsella wrote this:
“the evidence cannot be rebutted: the Prime Minister of Canada, as man and not just a boy, traded in the foulest racist stereotypes…
“So, that’s him: he’s the scum of the Earth. He doesn’t deserve to be elected dogcatcher, let alone a Prime Minister of a G7 country.
“Will Liberal MPs now publicly condemn their “leader,” as I counselled two distressed Grit MPs to do this morning? They must.
“And, Canadians, too, have a decision to make. Will we let him get away with it? Trudeau and his loathsome coterie are laying low, clearly believing this all will blow over in time. And it might, you know.
“It is up to us — Canadians— to say: not good enough. Not on. Not this time.
“Justin Trudeau — the goddamned Prime Minister of Canada — is on a video, this morning, joking that black people are, you know, apes.
“This man is unfit. We, Canadians, must line up on October 21 and reject him and his ways.
“We must.”
It was one of the mysteries of the last four years of the Trudeau majority government that they didn’t proceed with reform of the current first-past-the-post, non-compulsory electoral system. It seems a no-brainer that preferential or proportional voting would eliminate the chance of the Tories getting a majority with less than 25 per cent of eligible voters as Stephen Harper did in 2011 if my maths are correct..
You mathematical geniuses can help me here. In 2011 the voter turnout was 61.1 per cent of those who were eligible to vote. The Conservatives got 39.6 per cent of that 61.1 per cent. So
what percentage of all eligible voters did the Tories get that gave them the majority.
Not really whinging frednk … quoting a famous line by Shirley Maclean!
I am wrapped with the idea of my grandson
BW,
Is that the sound of crickets?
Penny Wong would be interesting choice for Federal Labor leader. However the Coalition and it’s media backers would wage one very ugly huge smear campaign. Also she would need to find a lower house electorate in South Australia
Good to hear good news here, congratulations to Mr and Mrs BK, and also Jenauthor .
jenauthor says:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 1:54 pm
Not really whinging frednk … quoting a famous line by Shirley Maclean!
I know, I heard the same line from my wife many times. My response was “Age is a requirement to be a grandma”. My granddaughter was quick to point out to her grandma that she was about to become a great. The joys of modern mixed families. Grandchildren is for sure one of the joys of old age.
JW
You hearing crickets inside your head?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-01/federal-election-labor-distancing-from-candidates-content/11063226
Victoria @ #1101 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 12:36 pm
I’m going for a big win for Bill and Labor.
Re Insiders
Having two old gatekeepers in Farr and Atkins on at the same time is too much. Their reactions to Greta reeked of ‘insider’ condescension.
More of the younger contributors like Smethhurst and Remeikis please.
Tristosays:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 2:09 pm
Penny Wong would be interesting choice for Federal Labor leader. However the Coalition and it’s media backers would wage one very ugly huge smear campaign. Also she would need to find a lower house electorate in South Australia
I used to think she be good but she showed signs of a poor temperament in the last campaign.
The carry-on with Birmingham wasn’t good.
PeeBee says:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 1:51 pm
Yep, she doesn’t define what she thinks a cult is, except, at the end, saying she doesn’t like the word, but then states how new religions are just the same as the old ones.
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 1:39 pm
I just remembered. We’re supposed to get a Newspoll tonight.
Fwiw.
My tip
52-48 to LibNats
Primaries will be most interesting…
Prediction for Newspoll 50-51 for the LNP, would not be surprised if the Green primary vote is as high as 13-14%.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 2:29 pm
I’m sure Penny’d be shattered¿
So hard to live up to your lofty standards¿
C@tmomma @ #1114 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 11:39 am
Doesn’t really carry the same impact it used to, does it?
BW,
The article that you reference makes no mention of Wayne Kurnoth being part of the ALP left. Do you have any reason to believe that he is?
Re Beguiled @1:53PM. Walter Kinsella would have no trouble getting a job writing for any Murdoch crapsheet
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 2:37 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 2:29 pm
Tristosays:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 2:09 pm
Penny Wong would be interesting choice for Federal Labor leader. However the Coalition and it’s media backers would wage one very ugly huge smear campaign. Also she would need to find a lower house electorate in South Australia
I used to think she be good but she showed signs of a poor temperament in the last campaign.
The carry-on with Birmingham wasn’t good.
I’m sure Penny’d be shattered¿
So hard to live up to your lofty standards¿
——————————————
Not really….
“Doesn’t really carry the same impact it used to, does it?”
With the next election likely 26 months away (November 2021), maybe more, and the Opposition leader looking like any number of long-forgotten Opposition leaders during long periods of their opponents’ rule, the impact is somewhat attenuated.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/28/tories-hold-12-point-lead-over-labour-in-latest-poll
Despite Johnson’s difficulties, he is still way ahead of Corbyn when voters are asked who they think would be the best prime minister. A total of 37% of voters say Johnson, against just 16% who would prefer the Labour leader.
The percentage of people who disapprove of Johnson’s handling of Brexit has risen slightly from 41% to 43% in the past week, with 37% approving , the same as last week. Corbyn’s approval rating on Brexit has improved slightly, though from a very low level. Some 60% of voters disapprove of his handling of Brexit (compared with 63% last week), against 17% who approve (up three points from last week).
Since 1993 Labor has been led by Keating, Beazley, Crean, Latham, Rudd, Gillard, Rudd, Shorten. 8 leaders. One win. 26 years. 9 elections. We have seldom been further from office. The Labor-positive plurality is just 41%. This is a lot less than is necessary for Labor to be competitive.
The long and the short of it is that success for Labor can not depend on just one person – the Leader. Success requires the involvement of broad sections of civil society. It was only such involvement that enabled Gough to win, and even then Labor only just scraped in – a narrow win in 1972, the first from Opposition in the 43 years that followed the election of the Scullin Government in 1929.
I don’t know if Albo has the makings of a PM. What I do know is that unless civil society gets behind Labor with the common aim of replacing the Liberals no-one will lead Labor to a win. There is no sign that such unity of purpose exists. Instead, we see dysfunction. We see a determination to procure yet more defeats.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 3:00 pm
Then, why do you have so many problems doing so?
UIsays:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 3:15 pm
Since 1993 Labor has been led by Keating, Beazley, Crean, Latham, Rudd, Gillard, Rudd, Shorten. 8 leaders. One win. 26 years. 9 elections. We have seldom been further from office. The Labor-positive plurality is just 41%. This is a lot less than is necessary for Labor to be competitive.
The long and the short of it is that success for Labor can not depend on just one person – the Leader. Success requires the involvement of broad sections of civil society. It was only such involvement that enabled Gough to win, and even then Labor only just scraped in – a narrow win in 1972, the first from Opposition in the 43 years that followed the election of the Scullin Government in 1929.
I don’t know if Albo has the makings of a PM. What I do know is that unless civil society gets behind Labor with the common aim of replacing the Liberals no-one will lead Labor to a win. There is no sign that such unity of purpose exists. Instead, we see dysfunction. We see a determination to procure yet more defeats.
It’s clear Labor needs to open up its party more to the rank and file to broaden the field of potential leadership candidates.
Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 3:19 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 3:00 pm
…
So hard to live up to your lofty standards¿
——————————————
Not really….
Then, why do you have so many problems doing so?
It’s not my fault Labor is a closed shop to anyone outside the union movement.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 3:23 pm
I didn’t realise “you” were “Labor”?
What’s this nonsense?
wha ..?
lizziesays:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 3:29 pm
It’s not my fault Labor is a closed shop to anyone outside the union movement.
What’s this nonsense?
The field of leadership potentials is restricted by the need to be from a union/faction.
No wonder there’s a dearth of talent.
The party needs to open up to the masses…
The interesting thing that could happen if the ALP was made more democratized, especially if party members elect the leadership, is that the party could very well undergo a considerable left-ward shift and start winning over disaffected former left-wing Labor voters, who currently vote for the Greens, although would happy vote for a more Progressive ALP.
Tristo says:
Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 3:36 pm
And this would gain them what?
Labor would gain a lot of voters, who current vote for the Greens and maybe other small progressive parties. Also Labor’s support among Millennials and Generation Zers would soar to maybe as high as 70%. Those votes could be as high as over 1 million or an extra 10%.
At the same time, the Greens vote would be hard hit, falling possibly as low as 5%.
lizzie @ #1142 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 3:29 pm
Absolute crap from someone who can’t buy a clue about the Labor Party.
C@tmomma @ #828 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 3:50 pm
Is that your best effort at rebuttal ..?
Tristo appears determined to turn Labor into The Greens.
Not. Going. To. Happen.
That way lies electoral oblivion at this point in time. Anthony Albanese is as Left as Labor will go.