Forever blowing bubbles

More reform talk, this time involving suggestions MPs should be prevented from defecting from the parties for which they were elected.

Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters chair James McGrath has floated another reform bubble, this time proposing that parliamentarians should be prevented from resigning from their parties under pain of either facing a by-election or being replaced by the nominee of the party for which they were elected. The Australian helpfully summarises recent situations where this would have applied: “Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus from the Palmer United Party, Cory Bernardi and Julia Banks from the Liberal Party, Fraser Anning and Rod Culleton from One Nation and Steve Martin from the Jacqui Lambie Network”. University of New South Wales constitutional law expert George Williams is quoted noting potential constitutional issues, particularly in relation to the lower house.

The proposal brings to mind the passage in New Zealand last year of what is colloquially known as the “waka jumping bill”, insisted upon by Winston Peters of New Zealand First as part of his coalition agreement with Labour after the 2017 election. This requires a constituency MP who quits their party to face a by-election, while party list MPs must vacate their seats and have them filled by the next candidate along from the list at the election. The move was poorly received by academics and the country’s Human Rights Commissioner, as it effectively gives party leaders the ability to dispense with troublemakers. It was also noted that Peters himself broke away from the National Party to form New Zealand First in 1990, but changed his tune after a split in his own party in 1998. However, the McGrath proposal would seem to be quite a lot less pernicious in that it would only apply to those who leave their parties of their own volition.

In other news, I had a paywalled article in Crikey on Tuesday regarding the YouGov methodological overhaul that was discussed here on Sunday, which said things like this:

Of course, transparency alone will not be sufficient for the industry to recover the strong reputation it held until quite recently. That will require runs on the board in the form of more-or-less accurate pre-election polls, for which no opportunity will emerge until the Queensland state election still over a year away. It’s far from certain that YouGov will prove able to get better results by dropping the telephone component of its polling, notwithstanding that phone polling is less conducive to the kind of detailed demographic parsing that it apparently has in mind. Nonetheless, the movements the pollster records over time within demographic and geographic sub-samples will almost certainly offer insights into the shifting sands of public opinion, even if skepticism will remain as to how it sees the numbers combining in aggregate.

I’m not sure when exactly we will see the fruits of YouGov’s approach, but we’re due some sort of Newspoll result on Sunday or Monday, and the fortnightly Essential Research falls due on Tuesday – we’re still waiting for the latter to resume voting intention, but I was told a little while ago it would happen soon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,328 comments on “Forever blowing bubbles”

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  1. Victoria @ #1045 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 9:37 am

    I was wondering as to why they were in Italy.
    This makes sense.

    K. Louise Neufeld
    @ninaandtito
    ·
    3h
    My bet: Barr & Pompeo are in Italy to crisis plan with Newt Gingrich. That’s my bet on the real reason for the visit.
    Because Ambassador to Vatican = Bi@chface Gingrich.

    Steve Bannon is also homed in Italy atm.

  2. Putting my hand into a hornets’ nest again, but I wonder if Jack Berne had a day off school to be with Morrison?

    But that’s all I’m going to say about the matter. 😐

  3. @iMusing
    ·
    3m
    btw those phoney rustic pics of white male politicians in brown fields are both climate denial (pretending drought is the problem) and colonialism/white nationalism (plucky frontier narrative of taming an empty land). Not mutually exclusive, but equally gross #Insiders

  4. Hidden somewhere in a bottom drawer is Morrison’s PLAN for the drought. Unfortunately he can’t remember where it is or what it says, but he’s sure it will benefit his mates.

    Joel Fitzgibbon @fitzhunter
    ·
    13m
    If Scott Morrison wants to continue to run with the fiction he is spending $7 billion on drought he needs to explain where it is going. Drought affected farmers & communities certainly haven’t seen it! #fail #spin #scottmorrisonwhereareyou #insiders

  5. Yeah, Scott Morrison loves being thought of as the epitome of the Big Australian, throwing around big numbers to make a big impression. It’s long past time to challenge him and burst his bubble.

  6. “Putting my hand into a hornets’ nest again, but I wonder if Jack Berne had a day off school to be with Morrison?”

    He’s campaigning for the sort of thing that Rupert, the Government and their mates approve of, so it’s OK.

    On an unrelated matter, I noticed that Waleed Ali was on Offsiders (that follows INsiders) discussing AFL. I didn’t know he did sport.

  7. Thanks Lizzie – I didn’t know the CSIRO had done so, though I’m not surprised — all the recent respected research is pointing in that direction quite strongly.

    I’ve been following recent research into Alzheimers and dementia, which is showing that glucose uptake in brains with dementia is low (perhaps because of insulin resistance) and that is one of the reasons for decline, whereas if the body is producing ketones (which happens on a very low carb diet) the brain uses these as a preferred fuel so the brain is adequately supplied with energy (and symptoms lessen).

    It is early days, and I will be interested to see the outcome of the Healthy Brain Project, of which I am a part, to see whether my diet has any effect. The project is over many years so I might not know for quite a long time. (Incidentally, if anyone here would like to participate – it is delivered online – just google Healthy Brain Project).

  8. Morrison encourages cynicism, doesn’t he?

    David Scott Aubrey @davidakaclean
    7m
    Replying to @farrm51
    ScumMo’s only talking about clearing plastic from the oceans because Twiggy’s found a way to make money out of it. Big tax dodge for him, IMO. Doubtless more than a little will ‘trickle down’ to the LNP. #auspol #insiders

    Mining billionaire Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest is launching a business-driven initiative to try to tackle the hundreds of millions of tonnes of plastic waste produced every year around the globe.

    Forrest, through his Minderoo Foundation, is committing US$300m to launch the scheme that proposes manufacturers of fossil-fuel based plastic pay a voluntary financial contribution for doing so.

    The rate would not be payable on recycled plastics, which he hopes could drive the transition to use of recycled plastics in production and stem the flow of waste into the world’s oceans and terrestrial spaces.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/25/andrew-forrest-launches-us300m-war-on-plastic-to-tackle-ocean-pollution

  9. Steve777, Waleed has been a guest on Offsiders for years. He appears very occasionally so it wwould not surprise if you missed him.
    He may even have been a guest host.

  10. jenauthor

    Saw it on the ABC, interviewing a CSIRO guy who has written books on it. Over the last few months the value of protein and full fats over low carbs/ersatz fats has been promoted in several outlets, much to the distress of low calorie/low fats dieters, I imagine. So pleased I had already been led through the theory by following your links. 🙂

  11. Saw it on the ABC, interviewing a CSIRO guy who has written books on it.

    Likely Peter Clifton, who along with Manny Noakes wrote the CSIRO total wellbeing diet, which posits a high protein eating plan.

  12. Plastic, rubbish, ect. Movement in W.A. on this.

    We have just had a new, more sorted bin system introduced by the local council and also there is this:

    https://arena.gov.au/projects/kwinana-waste-to-energy-project/

    https://www.wasteauthority.wa.gov.au/publications/waste-to-energy

    Can see this becoming more important in the eastern states because of the collapse of “recycling” companies and asian nations sending our crap back to us to add to local…rather large//stockpiles.

    Oh, and congrats BK. 🙂

  13. Twiggy’s idea has merit. In fact it seems to be a sort of GST on plastic, which is refunded when you recycle. Good for the environment and it might very marginally assist on emiision reduction – maybe fewer CO2 molecules escaping from plastic in landfill into the atmosphere, provuded the recycling process doesn’t release more.

    But for emission reduction, it’s not the main game, Morrison was using it as a distraction from his Government’s continued inaction on climate change. He may also have been helping out a mate. And of course billionaires don’t hate all taxes, so long as they’re paid by someone else.

    You can’t help but be cynical.

  14. Aqualung: “Steve777, Waleed has been a guest on Offsiders for years. “

    I’m not a big sports fan so I’ve probably missed him. He pops up everywhere, very versatile.

  15. High protein appears not to be a terribly good thing for younger people though – as the proteins (via a quite convoluted process) leads to greater glucose production in the liver. It has become clear that saturated dietary fat does not translate to fat in the body, but rather fuels the good bacteria in the gut (and researchers now believe this might be why so many have problems with their gut biome … because the good bacteria has been starved by a low fat regime).

    The other big issue appears to be seed oils which are incredibly high in omega 6 taking the ratio between omega 3 and omega 6 WAY out of balance …. something our bodies have great difficulty dealing with. That is why these same researchers keep promoting high intake of what they term healthy oils (those higher in saturated and mono-unsaturated like olive/fish/nut/coconut oils/butter/ghee/animal fats) which rebalance that ratio.

    While I’ve been taking a hiatus and doing research work (some of you might have seen my boss on 4Corners the other night talking about the funeral industry — where much of our past year’s research work has been concentrating) I have also been doing a great deal of research into all these areas of diet-related disease and consumption.

  16. @Victoria

    I am predicting either a hung parliament or a narrow Liberal majority in the Canadian general election. Although I am leaning towards a minority Liberal government, with the NDP and or the Green party giving supply and confidence. I wonder if electoral reforms will be introduced to have the House of Commons elected by proportional representation, as the price the NDP and/or the Green party will demand for supporting a Liberal minority government.

  17. StanceGrounded @_SJPeace_

    Sandeep Dhaliwal, the first Sikh to become deputy in Houston, TX was fatally shot from behind yesterday
    He was a HERO!
    With the help of his community, he filled an 18 wheeler truck with supplies worth over a million dollars for those affected by Hurricane Harvey
    KNOW HIS NAME!

    Kind gentle soul adored by even children, the most innocent amongst us.
    Forced to leave 3 young children of his own. Beyond devastating. It’s not fair.

  18. @sprocket_

    Morrison knows he has the backing of the media, even the ABC. So he is unconcerned it was reported in the overseas media, that his tour of the USA was not an embarrassment for him.

  19. Funny how it’s only the Liberal Party’s billionaire businessman mates that get to propose useful ideas to the government…that they then get to make another motza out of.

  20. “Funny how it’s only the Liberal Party’s billionaire businessman mates that get to propose useful ideas to the government…that they then get to make another motza out of.”

    It has been ever thus, Cat. Capitalism at its most insidious

  21. Impressed that Morrison was able to snuff out the ‘#ScottMorrisonWhereAreYou’ campaign so quickly.

    A quick flight in Shark1 up to inland Queensland with a young activist to shower taxpayers money on councils who haven’t asked for it, and reduce the 48 page application form for drought assistance.

    How good is that!

  22. Meanwhile, clean energy technology is marching along relentlessly – despite the best attempts of the fossil fuel industry and their running dogs to slow it down..

    “Rolls-Royce is attempting to build the world’s fastest all-electric aircraft in time for the start of the new decade in 2020. Capable of travelling at more than 300 mph and without releasing any emissions, its ACCEL plane promises a greener way to fly in years to come. Samuel Ballard reports

    Based out of Gloucestershire airport in the UK, the Rolls-Royce project, which has been named ACCEL (Accelerating the Electrification of Flight), is aiming to fly an electric plane at more than 300 mph over Wales next year as part of initial tests.

    If successful, it will mark the beginning of a new chapter in aviation history, and will lay the foundations for climate neutral flying at a time when the Earth is in crisis.

    The current speed record for an all-electric plane is 210 mph, and was set by Siemens in 2017. In comparison, a B787 Dreamliner plane travels at about 560 mph but is powered by jet fuel that releases harmful emissions in the form of CO2.

    Last year, flying produced 895 million tonnes of CO2 globally, which is about 2 per cent of total carbon dioxide emissions created by humans (42 billion tonnes in 2018). Paying for carbon offsetting will help counter the problem but it doesn’t solve it. Electric planes, however, could.

    “This plane will be powered by a state-of-the-art electrical system and the most powerful battery ever built for flight. We’re going to demonstrate its abilities in demanding test environments before going for gold in 2020 from a landing strip on the Welsh coastline,” says Matheu Parr, ACCEL project manager for Rolls-Royce.

    https://globetrender.com/2019/09/07/rolls-royce-electric-plane-accel/

  23. Abbott pulled weeds, cleaned up rubbish and planted a few trees in public parks. He called it “The Green Army”.

    He equated this with “action on Climate Change” by statements such as “The environment has no greater friend than the Coalition government”.

    Morrison is doing the same thing with plastic micro-particles.

    As Malcolm Farr put it, it’s the same thing as fighting an Ebola epidemic by declaring a war on Measles.

  24. The death of another local industry …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-29/citrus-industry-mourns-end-fruit-cropping-lower-darling-river/11556106

    Fruit growers on the lower Darling have begun turning off the water to their permanent plantings — killing their trees — as they harvest what will be the final citrus crop grown in the valley.

    “This current season has been quite good, we’ve had a good crop of fruit, but there won’t be another crop from here, ever,” Mr Whyte said.

    But let’s look on the bright side – at least we can still grow cotton!

    How good is Australia?

  25. citrus growers

    Rachel Strachan of Tulney Point Station said the collapse of the local industry and the threat to her family’s livelihood was causing significant stress.

    “I don’t know how we’re going to put food on the table, I really, really don’t, because all of our income stream is through horticulture,” she said.

    “We have nowhere to turn at the moment.”

    A long-awaited Federal Government compensation package is yet to be agreed
    The growers are having to let their crops die while they wait

    Will they qualify for the non-welfare money?
    Edit: Where’s Barnaby?
    And Morrison is quick with the money for Mars.

  26. Saw this on my facebook today.

    Car in front of me had a bumper sticker on it. It read:
    Pray for Scott Morrison, Psalm 109:8
    Got home and opened my bible to that and laughed. It read:
    “Let his days be few and brief and let others set forward to replace him.”

    Amen to that people. 🙂

    Note, thee are a few different versions of this. The happy clapper Good News Bible actually take a very hard line on this one?? 🙁

    “May his life soon be ended; may someone else take his job!”

  27. lizzie
    The corporatization of all Australian irrigated commodity production is probably acceleratingm, IMO.
    In other words, the days of tbe family citrus and grape blockies and the family forty cow dairy herds are either gone completely or disappearing at a rapid rate.
    As for irrigation cropping, so for dryland cropping. The number of Australian broad acre dryland cropping concerns has dropped from around 140,000 to 80,000 in past two decades.
    I am not sure what is happening with the size of beef and wool/fat lamb production concerns but would be very surprised if those are not being aggregated as well.
    IMO it would be a very, very useful policy analysis to see whether effective government subsidies to the production sectors actually go.
    My view would be that Australians would be horrified and astonished at the the amount of subsidies that go direct to overseas shareholders.

    Which reminds me. Another reason why Labor is in structural difficulties in the regions is mechanization of commodity production.
    And yet another reason is that corporate donors have no skin in the game of Australia’s social sustainability or the Australian environment.

  28. Steve777 (re Andrew Forrest):

    You can’t help but be cynical.

    Mr. Forrest is an old style philanthropist, attempt to generate scale by applying his business connections (a la the Gateses and various other Americans etc.) to fix global problems (also his anti-slavery initiative for example)

    Old style philanthropy in domestic affairs is innefficient relative to state action (provide the state action is conducted properly: as Drucker said: “government needs to be more government-like [more efficient at the divers activities of governing] rather than being more business-like [which is focused on a very small number of things, and also has marketing as its distinct function]”).

    However, in relation to foreign/global affairs that’s not necessarily the case, since nation-states (and even more so the UN) are constrained in what they can do.

    It’s far more likely the Mr Morrison heard about “plaaastics” from Mr Forrest, rather than the other way around (nor from watching the Graduate.!). What one must remember is that Mr. Morrison (whatever his other merits) is by quite some way the stupidest person to be Prime Minister and (as with TRump) is thus easily led.

  29. lizzie @ #1089 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 12:03 pm

    Player One

    I don’t care what is said in its defence, cotton is a Johnny-come-lately crop that is being used by Big Money.

    It’s a question of priorities: Would you rather have food to eat, or be able to buy $5 disposable T shirts made in Asia from Australian Cotton?

    I would call it a classic “first world” problem … if Australia still qualified to be called a “first world” country 🙁

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