This site’s slow-moving Call of the Board series, which takes a closer look at the results for every seat at the May 18 election, now makes it to regional Victoria. This area once enjoyed its fair share of marginal seats (see Ballarat, Bendigo and Monash/McMillan below), but now has only Corangamite to offer in the way of reliable election night seats-to-watch. Nonetheless, there were a few interesting things going on in the results for those who cared to look. (And while you’re here, note also the post on Brexit developments immediately below this one).
Ballarat (Labor 11.0%; 3.6% swing to Labor): Labor has been strengthening in this once highly marginal seat since Catherine King gained it at the 2001 election, at which it was the only seat in the country to shift from Coalition to Labor (with some help from the retirement of Michael Ronaldson, later a Senator). The only serious speed bump in that time was a 6.8% swing to the Liberals in 2013, reducing her margin to 4.9%, which she has now almost made good with successive swings of 2.4% and 3.6%. The Liberal primary vote on this occasion was down 4.0% despite the absence of the Nationals, who polled 4.2% in 2016, although they did face new competition on the right from the United Australia Party, which polled 4.6%.
Bendigo (Labor 9.0%; 5.2% swing to Labor): Victoria’s other regional city seat has followed a similar pattern to Ballarat over time: won by Labor from the Liberals in 1998, retained only narrowly in 2004 and 2013, and now looking secure again after successive swings of 2.5% and 5.2% in 2016 and 2019. The current member, Lisa Chesters, has now almost made up the 8.2% swing she suffered when she came to the seat on Steve Gibbons’ retirement in 2013. The Liberal primary vote was down 6.1% amid an overload of competition on the right, with One Nation, Conservative National and Rise Up Australia all in the field alongside the ubiquitous United Australia Party.
Casey (Liberal 4.6%; 0.1% swing to Liberal): Located on Melbourne’s eastern outskirts and held for the Liberals by the Speaker, Tony Smith, Casey was one of many Victorian seats that looked promising for Labor after the state election, but singularly failed to deliver on the day. Smith actually picked up a very slightly swing on two-party preferred, and none of the primary vote swings were particularly significant. Labor tended to do better in the more urbanised western end of the electorate, particularly in those parts of it newly added from La Trobe in the redistribution.
Corangamite (LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN 1.1%; 1.0% swing to Labor): Corangamite was designated as a notional Labor seat by the barest possible margin, so whoever received the swing was almost certain to win the seat. That proved to be Labor’s Libby Coker, just, in a result perfectly in line with the state average. Defeated Liberal member Sarah Henderson picked up a few swings in the booths newly added to the electorate on the Bellarine Peninsula, but the Great Ocean Road swung to Labor, reflecting its affluent and educated sea-changer demographic. The Greens were down 3.0% on the primary vote, as voters situated in the state’s south-west failed to warm to a candidate called Simon Northeast.
Corio (Labor 10.3%; 2.1% swing to Labor): Labor’s Richard Marles picked up 4.2% on the primary vote and 2.1% on two-party preferred, the former assisted by a small field of four candidates. The Liberals picked up some swings in Geelong’s down-market north, but the city centre and its surrounds went solidly to Labor.
Flinders (Liberal 5.6%; 1.4% swing to Labor): One of many disappointments for Labor was their failure to seriously threaten Greg Hunt in an area that had swung forcefully their way at the state election. Hunt was also little troubled by Julia Banks, who managed 13.8% of the primary vote, well behind Labor on 24.7%. Banks’s presence cut into the vote share for Liberal, Labor and the Greens – Hunt was down 3.8% to 46.7%, and needed preferences to win the seat for the first time since he came to it in 2001.
Gippsland (Nationals 16.7%; 1.5% swing to Labor): For reasons not immediately apparent, Labor was up 3.0% on the primary vote and cut slightly into what remains a secure margin for Nationals member Darren Chester.
Indi (Independent 1.4% versus Liberal; 4.1% swing to Liberal): As a number of highly trumpeted independents failed to live up to the hype elsewhere, Helen Haines performed a remarkable feat in retaining the independent mantle of Cathy McGowan. Haines’ primary vote of 32.4% was only slightly short of McGowan’s 34.8% on her re-election in 2016, although the Liberals put up a stronger show after gouging half of the Nationals vote. An interesting feature of the result was the 7.7% swing to the Liberals on two-party-preferred versus Labor, suggesting Haines’ preferences favoured the Liberals more strongly than did McGowan’s.
La Trobe (Liberal 4.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): A swing to the Liberals in Melbourne marginals was not a feature of too many pre-election predictions, but such was the outcome in La Trobe. Both major parties were up slightly on the primary vote amid a smaller field of candidates than 2016.
Mallee (Nationals 16.2%; 3.6% swing to Labor): Vacated with the demise of Andrew Broad’s two-term career, this was retained by the Nationals against a challenge from the Liberals, as it was in 2013 when Broad succeeded John Forrest. Liberal candidate Serge Petrovich actually fell out of the preference candidate before Labor, despite outpolling them 18.8% to 15.7% on the primary vote, and his preferences duly delivered a large winning margin to Nationals candidate Anne Webster. Webster would likely have won the seat even if Petrovich had survived to the final count, given her 27.9% to 18.8% advantage on the primary vote.
McEwen (Labor 5.0%; 1.0% swing to Liberal): Despite being an area of dynamic growth, particularly around Mernda and Doreen at Melbourne’s northern edge, McEwen turned in a largely static result on this occasion. This was in contrast to its form at the five elections from 2004 to 2016, when two-party swings ranged from 4.1% to 9.0%. Both major parties were down slightly on the primary vote as One Nation took to the field, scoring 5.9%, and Labor member Rob Mitchell’s two-party margin was slightly clipped after a blowout win in 2016.
Monash (Liberal 7.4%; 0.2% swing to Labor): The solid margin built up by Russell Broadbent since 2004 in the seat formerly known as McMillan was little disturbed, although the 7.6% recorded by One Nation took a 3.6% bite out of his primary vote. A noteworthy feature of the result was a heavy swing to the Liberals in the Latrobe Valley towns of Moe and Newborough, a pattern reflected in coal and electricity producing areas across the country.
Nicholls (Nationals 20.0%; 2.5% swing to Labor): After a three-cornered contest in 2016, in which Damian Drum gained the seat for the Nationals on the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone, the Liberals vacated the field in Nicholls (formerly Murray), and Drum retained the seat with a majority of the primary vote. One Nation polled 11.3%, easily the best result of the five seats they contested in Victoria.
Wannon (Liberal 10.4%; 1.2% swing to Liberal): Liberal member Dan Tehan picked up slight favourable swings on both the primary and two-party vote. Former Triple J presenter Alex Dyson polled 10.4% as an independent.
Boerwar @ #98 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 10:10 am
& of course change during period of Coalition government = plus 1.75%
I am still uncertain about this.
Were the two adults members of the Tamil Tigers?
‘Bellwether says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 10:19 am
Boerwar @ #98 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 10:10 am
Australian Greens Federal electoral performance for the decade:
2010 = 11.76%
2013 = 8.65%
2016= 10.23%
2019 = 10.4%
Change over decade = minus 1.36%
Change from peak = minus 1.36%.
& of course change during period of Coalition government = plus 1.75%’
Greens cherry alert!
Across most state and territories and federally the Greens vote have gone backwards this decade. In most states and territories the Greens vote is below its peak this decade.
guytaur says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 10:16 am
@chrislhayes tweets
Unless there’s some very important detail missing here, this is really messed up.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/hong-kong-montreal-pride-1.5260820
Darn Right! This is not what it should be.
If these Tamil people had been called ” Pell” instead of “Nadesalingam” this board would be:
* describing the couple as “convicted illegal immigrants” who will always be so, even if they ultimately win their case,
* heckling anyone who pointed out they may still have legal options, condescendingly telling them that because the couple had lost just once in court (much less on every single occasion their case was heard) this meant they were guilty of whatever PBers decided they were guilty of,
* any “win” would be cynical abuse of a legal technicality,
* praising Dutton and his department for sticking to their guns in order to achieve this historical legal and moral victory, which would teach a lesson to all future illegal immigrants,
* condemning the entire population of Biloea in central Queensland as closet terrorists and defenders of murderers, because a few of them have expressed community support for the couple,
* condemning any journalist, commentator, lawyer or member of the public who supported their right to appeal or (heaven forfend) claimed that they might not be guilty,
* saying they didn’t care whether they are guilty of the specific offences as charged, or not, it was good enough that they or their relatives had once been connected to terrorist organizations,
* calling for them to get cancer, but not to have access to pain killing drugs, so they could watch them die slowly in agony as payback for all the suffering the Tamil Tigers once inflicted,
* declaring that they were not biased in any way, but were determined to “call out” all cases of law breaking wherever they occurred.
* responded to anyone who disagreed with them by writing “blah, blah, blah” (update: or “presumptive garbage”) as a summary of any counter arguments made.
But their name isn’t “Pell”, is it?
Boerwar says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 10:20 am
I’ve seen no evidence mentioned in reporting to suggest this, the closest association so far has been the accident of their births.
Bushfire Bill @ #105 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 10:27 am
What a load of garbage. Presumptive garbage at that.
Boer….I think the tightening up in household incomes, the persistence of adverse pressures in the labour market and the rhetoric of the Greens itself – their endless negative sanctimony – have been whittling voter support for the Greens. But they have enough purchase on the Senate to remain a visible threat to reformist politics.
They are very good at campaigning to their house, just as the Lib-Libs are also very good at campaigning to theirs. Between them, the Liberals, their allies, clones, surrogates, alternates, ensigns, tributaries, delegates, off-siders, in-laws, mannequins, shotguns, mercenaries and dupes have the primary allegiance of 2/3 of the Australian electorate. This is the most important stat of all.
Boerwar @ #99 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 10:13 am
100% agree.
Meanwhile Epsteins lawyers are wanting answers on the non functioning cameras in the prison. I expect the Epstein saga to throw up a few more surprises over the coming weeks
What a load of garbage. Presumptive garbage at that.
Told youse.
Victoria
The Epstein case has already given rise to conspiracy theories about the Queen proroguing parliament for Johnson. BS of course. The crunch time comes when Labor does a no confidence vote.
Greens votes in states and territory for the past decade.
ACT
Leglislative Assembly
2008 = 15.6%
2012 = 10.7%
2016 = 10.3%
Change over decade =minus 5.3%
Change since peak = minus 5.3%
NT
2008 = 4.17%
2012 = 3.3%
2016 = – 2.9%
Change over decade = minus 1.27%
Change since peak = minus 1.27%
Queensland
2009 = 8.37%
2012 7.52%
2015 = 8.43%
2017 = 10%
Change over decade = plus 1.63%
Change since peak = 0%
Western Australia
Legislative Assembly
2008 = 11.92%
2013 = 8.39%
2017 = 8.91%
Change over decade = minus 2.01%
Change singe peak = minus 2.01%
Western Australia
Legislative Council
2008 = 11.08%
2013 = 8.21%
2017 = 8.91%
Change over decade = minus 1.17%
Change since peak = minus 1.17%
New South Wales
State Lower House
2011 = 10.3%
2015 = 10.3%
2019 = 9.6%
Change over decade = minus .7%
Change from peak = minus .7%
Tasmania
State Lower House
2010 = 21.6%
2014 = 13.8%
2018 = 10.6%
Change over decade = minus 11%
Change from peak = minus 11%
Victoria
State
2010 = 11.2%
2014 = 11.5%
2018 = 10.7%
Change over decade = minus .5%
Change from peak = minus .8%.
Australian Greens Federal electoral performance for the decade:
2010 = 11.76%
2013 = 8.65%
2016= 10.23%
2019 = 10.4%
Change over decade = minus 1.36%
Change from peak = minus 1.36%.
Senate
2010 = 13.11%
2013 = 8.65%
2016 = 8.65%
2019 = 10.19%
Change over decade = minus 2.92%
Change over decade = minus 2.92%
“…..due to past family links..” does not assert that these people themselves took part in the Tamil uprising.
It could have been father,brothers involved and that they are guilty by association.
If that is punishable by deportation , there are many other immigrants (post-war ) who would fall into that category.
I feel Dutton is deliberately picking on soft targets to upset those of us on the left and to intimidate the rest of us immigrants.
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/entertainment/rules-are-rules-dutton-tells-tamil-family-with-no-ties-to-liberal-donors-or-crown-casino/
‘Barney in Makassar says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 10:28 am
Boerwar says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 10:20 am
I am still uncertain about this.
Were the two adults members of the Tamil Tigers?
I’ve seen no evidence mentioned in reporting to suggest this, the closest association so far has been the accident of their births.’
IMO, this matters. For example, no one is suggesting that we send Senator Abetz back because he was related to a certain person.
And if we extended the principle of exporting back to where the came from all Australians who have relatives who were suspected war criminals (alive or dead) then many tens thousands of Australians would have to go.
Does the Sri Lankan Government target family members of Tamil Tigers because they are family members of Tamil Tigers? This seems to be a significant point, IMO.
Australian Greens support has been pretty stable nationwide for a decade now. I predict it will increase to around say 13-15% as the issue of climate change radicalizes the Australian electorate, like Brexit has done to Britain.
However that is about it, because I feel that it will be the right-wing populist parties that will profit if Australia were to enter a severe recession or even depression. Since anti-environmentalist sentiment is considerable in this country, plus a fair slice of the media have been broadcasting what I see as far-right propaganda for years.
BB, a hypercrite.
Bushfire Bill @ #111 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 10:34 am
Yeah yeah, whatever. 🙄
#cockyspeakseveryonelisten
Bushfire Bill says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 10:27 am
What a load of rubbish.
There is no suggestion of criminality in anything to do with their presence in Australia.
They have had their application for asylum rejected.
The legislation here can be a bit of a blunt instrument, hence the Minister has discretionary powers.
All that is being asked, mainly by those who know them, is that the Minister should, in this case, use them.
BB,
There are immigrants with Anglo names who are also feeling nervous .
It is the sheer vindictiveness and cruelty of this mob that is so upsetting. I have been deeply involved with Asylum issues since Tampa days and if dogs were treated as badly, you would be jumping up and down.
Boerwar @ #103 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 10:23 am
Just fleshing out your data. I have absolutely no skin in the game.
I see BB is still in denial about how our court system works.
BB a reminder. Its convicted child rapist Pell unless overturned by the High Court.
Can someone please remind me why those who believe in dubious human constructs deserve their own set of discrimination laws?
“Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has taken the time today to explain why the Biloela Tamil family must be deported.”
The lady would need an Au-Pair costume to get Duttons approval. 🙁 He is scum.
‘Tristo says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 10:41 am
Australian Greens support has been pretty stable nationwide for a decade now. ‘
This does make a change from how the Greens are advancing on all fronts which we routinely get from the likes of Firefox and Bellwether.
The fact is that over the past decade the Australian Greens have gone backwards in all states and territories and in the House of Representatives and in the Senate.
The sole exception of Queensland state elections where the Greens are now at their peak of 10%.
This is the statistical base from which Di Natale predicted that the Greens would form government within the next 20 years.
The fact is that the Greens, federally, have lost at least 200,000 votes in the Reps and at least 400,000 votes in the Senate over the decade.
Bellwether says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 10:51 am
Because they need to feel free to publicly tell others how deluded they are, instead of just practicing and celebrating their delusions in their relevant buildings!
‘Bellwether says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 10:47 am
Boerwar @ #103 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 10:23 am
‘Bellwether says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 10:19 am
Boerwar @ #98 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 10:10 am
Australian Greens Federal electoral performance for the decade:
2010 = 11.76%
2013 = 8.65%
2016= 10.23%
2019 = 10.4%
Change over decade = minus 1.36%
Change from peak = minus 1.36%.
& of course change during period of Coalition government = plus 1.75%’
Greens cherry alert!
Across most state and territories and federally the Greens vote have gone backwards this decade. In most states and territories the Greens vote is below its peak this decade.
Just fleshing out your data. I have absolutely no skin in the game.’
I accept that you have no skin in the game. Your ‘fleshing out’ was misleading in the sense that across all states (except Queensland) and territories and federally in the Reps and in the Senate, it does not matter whether Labor or Liberal governments were in.
The Greens have gone backwards this decade.
@Boerwar
That decline in the Greens vote is due to competition emerging such as the HEMP party, not to mention the Animal Justice Party (AJP). Both parties got 1.80 (HEMP) and 1.26% (AJP) of the vote in the last senate election.
I take it the next sob story about poor, white South African farmers and their families, over-staying their visas here or looking for solace in the land of Oz, or some poor white Aupair woman kind of helping out some rich, LNP connected family, will receive the same stern treatment this Tamil lot have suffered?
Just the mildest knowledge of the treatment of Tamils in SL (going back to the times of Ceylon) shows they have always had the short end of the stick with the major ethnic group on that fair island.
One another matter, I really thought the Morrison/toilet thing was a beat up yesterday. But no, Miracle Man – the Chosen One – does really have the bit between his teeth to sort this one out………my relief is palpable.
Boerwar @ #126 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 10:54 am
How can my one and only post ever on the Greens be considered routine? I don’t understand your obsession with ‘the decade’ and I honestly don’t care because I have no opinion on the Greens. But it does seem, purely by analysis of your quoted numbers, that the Greens have made slight inroads federally during the period of the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments. Am I wrong?
@joshgnosis tweets
Breaking: Dutton is prevented from removing the 2 year old girl from Australia until Wednesday 4pm.
‘Tristo says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 10:59 am
@Boerwar
That decline in the Greens vote is due to competition emerging such as the HEMP party, not to mention the Animal Justice Party (AJP). Both parties got 1.80 (HEMP) and 1.26% (AJP) of the vote in the last senate election.’
Just yesterday Firefox was claiming that the Greens vote is improving.
Today, you have moved from
‘Australian Greens support has been pretty stable nationwide for a decade now.’
to
‘That decline in the Greens vote…’
You then offer some reasons for the decline. I am urging the Greens to reflect on their voting trends. Clearly there is a problem.
Similarly, it seems rather odd for the Greens, who are going backwards, to be explaining to Labor how Labor might stop going backwards!
You do see the problem.
@JonathoanLea10 tweets
Labor on the Tamil family. “Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP has the power to stop this today. I appeal to him as a father. I appeal to him as a Christian… show some leadership.” @KKeneally #auspol https://twitter.com/JonathanLea10/status/1167235517500420096/photo/1
Bellwether says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 11:01 am
You’re not wrong, but it also highlights that most of Labor’s drop in their Primary vote has gone Right.
Barney
Yes exactly. So Labor’s weakness has seen voters go for the real deal rather than follow Liberal Lite.
Thats what I have been saying since the election. You can disagree but I am basing my conclusion on the way voters moved. Not making fantasies up about the Greens failing.
Bellwether
I erred in referring to your posts as being routine Greens. My bad.
You can go back three and half decades if you wish. I don’t much care what you do.
If you do that the Greens are at the peak in every single election that has been held and will ever be held.
You can cherry pick a single government over a single period, use Abbott as your starting point, and choose whatever period you choose. I don’t much care what you do.
The general point I am making is that over the past ten years the Greens have gone backwards, and not forwards as some of them keep claiming.
The cherry picking around this is Greens electoral denialism.
guytaur says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 11:07 am
???????????????????
HometoBilo
@HometoBilo
·
12m
BREAKING: Justice Bromberg has just granted an injunction, restraining Dutton et al from removing 2-year-old Tharnuicaa from Australia, until 4pm Wednesday. #HomeToBilo #Biloela
@lizzie
The liberal party never gets it’s paper work however, the labor goverment and it’s MPs always get the blame for corruption.
Justice Bromberg – good draw for the family
When are we getting HH’s judgment on Cash, ROC?
@amz_singh_A tweets
If the Aust govt doesnt listen to statements by the UN, who do they listen to? “The United Nations Special repertoire for torture made a plea to states not to send Tamil’s back to Sri Lanka in the last year,” stated spokesperson Lucy Honan @PeterDutton_MP @9NewsSyd #hometobilo
@climatecouncil tweets
New data reveals Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions have risen yet again, and increasing gas exports are largely to blame. @p_hannam
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-s-greenhouse-emissions-set-new-seven-year-highs-on-gas-boom-20190830-p52mbe.html
KK is wrong in thinking that Morrison cares a jot.
Kristina Keneally
@KKeneally
This is my appeal to @ScottMorrisonMP
.
The Prime Minister could put all this legal manoeuvring aside and end this uncertainty if he got @DavidColemanMP
to use his powers of ministerial intervention.
@HometoBilo
#HomeToBiloela #hometobilo
lizzie
Its a good attack though. It shows what type of christian Morrison is and is a good counter to his attempt to use Christianity to soften his tough man image from immigration minister times.