This site’s slow-moving Call of the Board series, which takes a closer look at the results for every seat at the May 18 election, now makes it to regional Victoria. This area once enjoyed its fair share of marginal seats (see Ballarat, Bendigo and Monash/McMillan below), but now has only Corangamite to offer in the way of reliable election night seats-to-watch. Nonetheless, there were a few interesting things going on in the results for those who cared to look. (And while you’re here, note also the post on Brexit developments immediately below this one).
Ballarat (Labor 11.0%; 3.6% swing to Labor): Labor has been strengthening in this once highly marginal seat since Catherine King gained it at the 2001 election, at which it was the only seat in the country to shift from Coalition to Labor (with some help from the retirement of Michael Ronaldson, later a Senator). The only serious speed bump in that time was a 6.8% swing to the Liberals in 2013, reducing her margin to 4.9%, which she has now almost made good with successive swings of 2.4% and 3.6%. The Liberal primary vote on this occasion was down 4.0% despite the absence of the Nationals, who polled 4.2% in 2016, although they did face new competition on the right from the United Australia Party, which polled 4.6%.
Bendigo (Labor 9.0%; 5.2% swing to Labor): Victoria’s other regional city seat has followed a similar pattern to Ballarat over time: won by Labor from the Liberals in 1998, retained only narrowly in 2004 and 2013, and now looking secure again after successive swings of 2.5% and 5.2% in 2016 and 2019. The current member, Lisa Chesters, has now almost made up the 8.2% swing she suffered when she came to the seat on Steve Gibbons’ retirement in 2013. The Liberal primary vote was down 6.1% amid an overload of competition on the right, with One Nation, Conservative National and Rise Up Australia all in the field alongside the ubiquitous United Australia Party.
Casey (Liberal 4.6%; 0.1% swing to Liberal): Located on Melbourne’s eastern outskirts and held for the Liberals by the Speaker, Tony Smith, Casey was one of many Victorian seats that looked promising for Labor after the state election, but singularly failed to deliver on the day. Smith actually picked up a very slightly swing on two-party preferred, and none of the primary vote swings were particularly significant. Labor tended to do better in the more urbanised western end of the electorate, particularly in those parts of it newly added from La Trobe in the redistribution.
Corangamite (LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN 1.1%; 1.0% swing to Labor): Corangamite was designated as a notional Labor seat by the barest possible margin, so whoever received the swing was almost certain to win the seat. That proved to be Labor’s Libby Coker, just, in a result perfectly in line with the state average. Defeated Liberal member Sarah Henderson picked up a few swings in the booths newly added to the electorate on the Bellarine Peninsula, but the Great Ocean Road swung to Labor, reflecting its affluent and educated sea-changer demographic. The Greens were down 3.0% on the primary vote, as voters situated in the state’s south-west failed to warm to a candidate called Simon Northeast.
Corio (Labor 10.3%; 2.1% swing to Labor): Labor’s Richard Marles picked up 4.2% on the primary vote and 2.1% on two-party preferred, the former assisted by a small field of four candidates. The Liberals picked up some swings in Geelong’s down-market north, but the city centre and its surrounds went solidly to Labor.
Flinders (Liberal 5.6%; 1.4% swing to Labor): One of many disappointments for Labor was their failure to seriously threaten Greg Hunt in an area that had swung forcefully their way at the state election. Hunt was also little troubled by Julia Banks, who managed 13.8% of the primary vote, well behind Labor on 24.7%. Banks’s presence cut into the vote share for Liberal, Labor and the Greens – Hunt was down 3.8% to 46.7%, and needed preferences to win the seat for the first time since he came to it in 2001.
Gippsland (Nationals 16.7%; 1.5% swing to Labor): For reasons not immediately apparent, Labor was up 3.0% on the primary vote and cut slightly into what remains a secure margin for Nationals member Darren Chester.
Indi (Independent 1.4% versus Liberal; 4.1% swing to Liberal): As a number of highly trumpeted independents failed to live up to the hype elsewhere, Helen Haines performed a remarkable feat in retaining the independent mantle of Cathy McGowan. Haines’ primary vote of 32.4% was only slightly short of McGowan’s 34.8% on her re-election in 2016, although the Liberals put up a stronger show after gouging half of the Nationals vote. An interesting feature of the result was the 7.7% swing to the Liberals on two-party-preferred versus Labor, suggesting Haines’ preferences favoured the Liberals more strongly than did McGowan’s.
La Trobe (Liberal 4.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): A swing to the Liberals in Melbourne marginals was not a feature of too many pre-election predictions, but such was the outcome in La Trobe. Both major parties were up slightly on the primary vote amid a smaller field of candidates than 2016.
Mallee (Nationals 16.2%; 3.6% swing to Labor): Vacated with the demise of Andrew Broad’s two-term career, this was retained by the Nationals against a challenge from the Liberals, as it was in 2013 when Broad succeeded John Forrest. Liberal candidate Serge Petrovich actually fell out of the preference candidate before Labor, despite outpolling them 18.8% to 15.7% on the primary vote, and his preferences duly delivered a large winning margin to Nationals candidate Anne Webster. Webster would likely have won the seat even if Petrovich had survived to the final count, given her 27.9% to 18.8% advantage on the primary vote.
McEwen (Labor 5.0%; 1.0% swing to Liberal): Despite being an area of dynamic growth, particularly around Mernda and Doreen at Melbourne’s northern edge, McEwen turned in a largely static result on this occasion. This was in contrast to its form at the five elections from 2004 to 2016, when two-party swings ranged from 4.1% to 9.0%. Both major parties were down slightly on the primary vote as One Nation took to the field, scoring 5.9%, and Labor member Rob Mitchell’s two-party margin was slightly clipped after a blowout win in 2016.
Monash (Liberal 7.4%; 0.2% swing to Labor): The solid margin built up by Russell Broadbent since 2004 in the seat formerly known as McMillan was little disturbed, although the 7.6% recorded by One Nation took a 3.6% bite out of his primary vote. A noteworthy feature of the result was a heavy swing to the Liberals in the Latrobe Valley towns of Moe and Newborough, a pattern reflected in coal and electricity producing areas across the country.
Nicholls (Nationals 20.0%; 2.5% swing to Labor): After a three-cornered contest in 2016, in which Damian Drum gained the seat for the Nationals on the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone, the Liberals vacated the field in Nicholls (formerly Murray), and Drum retained the seat with a majority of the primary vote. One Nation polled 11.3%, easily the best result of the five seats they contested in Victoria.
Wannon (Liberal 10.4%; 1.2% swing to Liberal): Liberal member Dan Tehan picked up slight favourable swings on both the primary and two-party vote. Former Triple J presenter Alex Dyson polled 10.4% as an independent.
Bucephalus says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 8:38 am
…
They should be removed immediately back to Sri Lanka.
It would seem the court doesn’t agree with you.
Greensborough Growler says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 8:58 am
The parents are the terrorists. The kids aren’t our responsibility – they are Sri Lankan.
Sorry, 99% of posters.
@MSVuruca tweets
Where were you the night Chris Uhlmann reached the pinnacle of his journalistic career by reaching out to Scott Morrison about a sign on a toilet door instead of reaching out to stop the deportation of an innocent family from Bilo & their two little daughters?
#HomeToBilo https://twitter.com/CUhlmann/status/1166935878586884096
@CUhlmann tweets
Meanwhile at the Barton offices of Prime Minister and Cabinet… https://twitter.com/CUhlmann/status/1166935878586884096/photo/1
Fess
He is now in his seventies so mental and physical decline is naturally to be expected. By all accounts he doesn’t eat well and is abusing meds. Couple that with all the deception and stress he lives with each and every day, his decline is not surprising.
With all the shit going on around the world, focussing on gender neutral toilets really is an indulgence that should be utterly ignored
Victoria
The laugh is that as the sign shows its not gender neutral. Its a woman’s toilet.
Suffice to say that the merits of the case of the Tamils’ fight over the Sinhalese in Sri Lanka is being completely overlooked.
So, what is it? If a group fights against another in a Civil War in their country then the victors get to ostracise the losers all around the world and brand them as terrorists!?!
Watch out, Buce, people might start recalling what the Sinhalese did to the Tamils as they suppressed and destroyed their fight against them.
Or, is that okay because, ‘they were the government’, or somesuch self-serving excuse?
And Buce quotes an article from The Worst Australian. 😆
Guytaur
Yes I know, but there is a notice welcoming others that would feel comfortable using the women’s toilet.
These notices are everywhere you go now.
Alan Jones raging against deportation, name calling the PM, I suspect because the family had set up and worked in his beloved rural Qld.
A reminder that underpinning shock jockery are:
(a) incoherence;
(b) ad hockery;
(c) being biddable
Diogenes @ #2153 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 9:50 pm
” I said I wasn’t a specialist in HIV. Which was true as I was just an intern.”
I was a specialist in HIV. The biology of disease trumps wishful self-delusion every time – eventually.
One of the most tragic cases was that of the ex-army officer pillar of the Sydney Anglican diocese (localised for those who know what that implies) who maintained his reactionary self-loathing homophobia until the HIV-related cerebral lymphoma robbed him of his ability to express it. It was not a good death.
My recollection is that the Royal Commission was in to Historical Institutional Child Abuse and covered a wide number of organisations. However, as I predicted at the time, the findings would be used to concentrate on the misbehavior of individuals associated with the Catholic Church to the almost total exclusion of all else. I haven’t been disappointed. This exemplifies the blatant bigotry and hatred of Catholics that permeates the broader community.
I suppose haters are always going to hate.
@sallyrugg tweets
The Bilo family are currently in Darwin after a last minute injunction saw them removed from the plane.
Please support the Biloela community and Priya, Nades and their daughters this morning. #hometobilo
There are peaceful snap actions in Sydney and Melbourne, numbers to call https://twitter.com/sallyrugg/status/1167194188326170624/photo/1
Negative working environment – negative moral:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/30/thousands-of-public-servants-want-to-quit-peter-duttons-home-affairs-department
I think I may be on Bu’s side here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Tigers_of_Tamil_Eelam
The four principles that are confounded here appear to be:
1. Should, and under what circumstances, Australia accept former members of terrorist organisations as refugees.
2. Should the possible or probable execution on return of former members of terrorist organisations affect Australia’s behaviour in such cases?
3. In such cases how might innocent children best be protected?
4. Should Australia apply its war crimes/security legislation, bearing in mind that we have done so for other war criminals/terrorists?
The notion that they are now a nice family with lovely innocent children who probably won’t go back to supporting the use of child suicide bombers and who are now being treated badly by the wicked Mr Dutton is a trope that does not fit neatly with 1-4.
Bucephalus @ #52 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 9:07 am
Why do you label the children as terrorists? Does it make you feel vindicated?
99% is not accurate either.
Victoria
Yes. Our culture has moved on from the days of hellfire and brimstone preachers setting the laws.
Many parliaments have done formal apologies for criminal prosecutions.
That tweet shows how these culture wars are being used to distract people from real issues like human rights and the economic incompetence of this government.
Rick Wilson (wtte): “With all Trump’s goings on in the White House and corruption etc, the Democrats have got this election on a platter. It’s time to eat.”
https://twitter.com/DeadlineWH/status/1167195444562333697
Except Dems are renowned for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
GG
Maybe it’s as simple as the Catholic Church being the biggest perpetrators and also the ones that did anything to cover it up.
Why should people general hate Catholics? Nearly everyone in my sphere are of catholic background whether practising or not, and they are not being hated on for their faith or otherwise. They would be hated on if they were making excuses for the abhorrent conduct of the church heirarchy.
Have you heard what the local parish priest in our area has said about the abuse and George Pell? He has no concern is accepting the reprehensible conduct of the church he currently serves, and nor should you.
Vic:
I said yesterday Scotty was stupid to be baited on the toilet thing. Such a ridiculous non-issue for him to wade in on, as if anyone cares about gender inclusive toilets in a Canberra office building when the country is going to ruins around us.
BW
The parents fit into the anti gay crowd if what I remember is correct. I am not condemning the children for their parents views on that. I am not condemning the children and assuming they are going to grow up to be terrorists.
Its kind of that idea we are supposed to live under. Innocent until proven guilty. In fact the same should apply to the parents for actions in Australia. Being resistence fighters with horrific killing of civilians during nazi times did not stop us welcoming refugees from Europe.
I have not seen a case made why these parents would actually be a danger to Australian civilians.
Guytaur
Distraction continues full speed ahead each and every day. Just look at the US and UK. It is a shit show at present
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 9:17 am
My recollection is that the Royal Commission was in to Historical Institutional Child Abuse and covered a wide number of organisations. However, as I predicted at the time, the findings would be used to concentrate on the misbehavior of individuals associated with the Catholic Church to the almost total exclusion of all else. I haven’t been disappointed. This exemplifies the blatant bigotry and hatred of Catholics that permeates the broader community.’
IMO this is largely true.
While no longer a catholic I have certainly observed personally and in the MSM what I would call much anti-catholic bigotry.
This general observation is partly mediated by two other observations.
1. The catholic church has perpetrated the bulk of the bad behaviour. IMO this does not necessarily reflect something about the catholic religion. It mainly reflects the very large number of institutions run by the catholic church, including especially the very large number of institutions involving children. IMO it is probably reasonable to say that wherever children were institutionalized and by whomever there was a degree of abuse.
2. In a sort of a mirror to the bigotry some catholics are incapable of accepting the truth about their church. I have family members who literally blame evild children for tempting the priests. We have the Archbishop of Melbourne opining that there might have been another perp. And so on and so forth.
Fess
Hence why I think Morrison waded into it. It is up to everyone else to call bullshit and bring the attention back to all the real stuff going on.
Bread and circuses been around since time immemorial
Bucephalus @ #47 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 9:03 am
They admit what? That Sri Lanka is a backwards place where authorities will prosecute you over things that your family members/relatives have done? I’d believe that.
What proof do you have that Priya and Nadesalingam have themselves done anything criminal? Being relatives of (wealthy or not) Tamil Tigers people doesn’t count.
EVIL LITTLE MONSTER:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/she-was-screaming-family-s-deportation-stopped-by-last-minute-injunction-20190829-p52m84.html
GREENS AND LABOR MUST UNITE TO STOP THIS MAD MAN.
Anti-Catholicism was a very real part of our history. However I suspect that it mostly now exists as a response to Catholic attitudes to abortion and euthanasia more than any residue of sectarianism.
@Bucephalus @ #47 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 9:03 am
EVIL LITTLE SHIT YOU ARE.
[My recollection is that the Royal Commission was in to Historical Institutional Child Abuse and covered a wide number of organisations. However, as I predicted at the time, the findings would be used to concentrate on the misbehavior of individuals associated with the Catholic Church to the almost total exclusion of all else. I haven’t been disappointed. This exemplifies the blatant bigotry and hatred of Catholics that permeates the broader community.]
This is an uninformed generalisation.
The most important exercise of obtaining compensation for the victims is:
(a) targeted broadly but naturally at parties who are sensible and caring (normally Government based bodies);
(b) meeting some resistance at the hands of the Catholic Church. The big unknown is whether the Church will be brave enough to meet a claim before a jury (I will keep you informed).
In my view, the Catholic Church is not the worst. That goes to the Scouts but is somewhat reflective of their devolved set-up.
‘guytaur says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 9:24 am
BW
The parents fit into the anti gay crowd if what I remember is correct. I am not condemning the children for their parents views on that. I am not condemning the children and assuming they are going to grow up to be terrorists.
Its kind of that idea we are supposed to live under. Innocent until proven guilty. In fact the same should apply to the parents for actions in Australia. Being resistence fighters with horrific killing of civilians during nazi times did not stop us welcoming refugees from Europe.
I have not seen a case made why these parents would actually be a danger to Australian civilians.’
I am not sure why you are dragging gays into this.
It is true that lots of war criminals, including returning Australian war criminals, came to Australia after World War Two. It is also true that there was so much war criminal behaviour deemed to be ordinary and acceptable during that war, that it is arguable that there was a sort of general amnesty for most ordinary participants. Shooting japanese who were trying to surrender virtually became the norm. Practically every sinking of a merchant ship by allied submarines was a war crime. Australian pilots machine gunning japanese in lifeboats was a crime. However, known german and japanese war criminals were not accepted as migrants.
This has changed. We have legislation that specifically addresses criminality both in the sense of a conventional war and in the sense of terrorism. Individuals have been successfully prosecuted under this legislation. Whether they have children who might suffer as a consequence of the prosecution does not particularly bear.
I am uncertain of the facts here. Were the adults members of the Tamil Tigers or not?
Confessions @ #44 Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 9:01 am
Nah. He’s just trying to sound Presidential again as he does a set piece in the Rose Garden. Trying to remember his words and read his script. It’s just that he does it so badly.
It will be interesting to see what the arguable case is that entitles the injunction to be maintained where the Bilo family lost in the High Court
BW
I only mentioned it to show you that I am not allowing personal animus to views get in the way of justice.
Edit: I am very pleased Labor is fighting this one. This is a good part of the change in Labor. Hopefully this fighting sprit will become the norm from Labor
I note that zoomster is still smarting from the success of Helen Haines. Maybe going Indy was a better option than latching onto the ALP?
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/british-expats-warned-be-ready-for-snap-election-sparked-by-brexit-crisis-20190830-p52m90.html
I am not sure of the extent of anti-catholic bigotry but I have been surprised at some of my direct observations.
Examples include:
1. Catholics ‘can’t sing’. I offered the view that some of them certainly could not but that a good sung Latin mass with choirs indicated to me that at least some catholics could sing. Unless they were protestants pretending to be catholics.
2. Individuals who refused to go to ecumenical events because a catholic priest was going to be present.
3. An individual who came raging into a paddock when Kennedy was elected. What was the problem? He’s a catholic.
4. A prurient fascination with things like tunnels between nunneries and monasteries.
5. Endless ‘jokes’ about Irish priests etc, etc, etc.
IMO there is still a lot of anti catholic bigotry embedded at a sort of subconscious level particular among older people. The individuals who exhibit it barely know that they suffer from it.
‘guytaur says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 9:38 am
BW
I only mentioned it to show you that I am not allowing personal animus to views get in the way of justice.’
FMD.
BW
Yes FMD is right. The fact I felt that was indeed worth mentioning at all shows how attacks on me for mentioning gay stuff is just wrong.
We live in an inclusive society. I can mention gay stuff that as long as its not explicitly sexual is quite normal.
@gloriakalache tweets
Supporters for Tamil family singing the girls favourite song twinkle twinkle little star outside the Federal Court @SBSNews https://twitter.com/gloriakalache/status/1167218846790348800/video/1
Ewin Hannan
@EwinHannan
·
13h
Australia’s senior executives and managers are doing a “terrible job” motivating employees, who rank their bosses the worst among 12 countries for leadership skills, new research finds. @australian
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/workers-lift-lid-on-terrible-bosses/news-story/d56ebd5f186da99f592ddb754aa5df24
@ACLU tweets
Through the courts and through proposed rules — the Trump administration is trying to roll back civil rights laws that protect all of us. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/29/opinion/trump-civil-rights.html
twinkle, twinkle little star?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tG7_Jyr2-is
Twinkle twinkle little star:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ydYiYISGVY
Firefox says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 7:36 am
It seems to be difficult for some Labor supporters to grasp the reality that support for the Greens increased significantly at the recent election. That may be understandable, considering many of them are still in shock and denial about Labor’s terrible result. Honestly, I don’t blame them. I think we all thought Labor would perform much better than they did.
There will be those who will continue to incorrectly predict the imminent demise of the Greens, as they have been doing since the party’s creation. Each election the right (including Labor) trot out and claim the Greens are finished. Each election we prove them wrong.
Whether you like it or not, the Greens are the third force in Australian politics and we are here to stay.
I for one do not predict the demise of the Greens. They will persist. There is an audience for their style of political theatre. They will continue to campaign against Labor. They will continue to help procure the election of Lib-Lib governments. This is the dysfunction that lies in the sullen heart of Australian political life these days. The Blues rule Lib-kin Garden.
Because the Greens are an anti-Labor expression, they are most unlikely to take more votes away from Labor. They are basically hostile to the economic interests of working people but have been able to take around a fifth of the Labor-positive plurality and fight hard every day to hang in to it. Their anti-Labor campaigning has helped drive voters away from Labor altogether…encouraging Labor-positive affiliations to break down. This is reflected in the political alienation that is so evident among voters.
This is the story of dysfunction in reformist opinion. Until it is repealed, the Right will continue to win.
@joshgnosis tweets
I’m at the court hearing this morning for this. Starts at 10am. I will attempt to tweet updates
@MrFrankBaraan tweets
SOGIE is about penalizing any form of discrimination, harassment, & hate crimes vs LGBTs.
It’s NOT about giving them ‘special rights.’ It’s about taking away the ‘moral’ rights of Bible-waving bigots like you to use religion to hurt them & get away w/ it.
CHECK YOUR PRIVILEGE. https://twitter.com/MrFrankBaraan/status/1167211149424676865/video/1
This article was funded by The Pulitzer Centre for Crisis Reporting:
https://www.vice.com/en_au/article/kwxz4m/death-of-a-tiger-0000710-v22n8
There is always 2 sides to every story.
@JamesFernyhouse tweets
BREAKING – Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions rose 0.6% in the 12 months to March 31, government reveals @ScottMorrisonMP #auspol #ClimateChange http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/6686d48f-3f9c-448d-a1b7-7e410fe4f376/files/nggi-quarterly-update-mar-2019.pdf
Australian Greens Federal electoral performance for the decade:
2010 = 11.76%
2013 = 8.65%
2016= 10.23%
2019 = 10.4%
Change over decade = minus 1.36%
Change from peak = minus 1.36%.
c@t
IMO, civil wars are often the nastiest and most vicious sorts of wars. IMO, we can take that as read for Sri Lanka.
@chrislhayes tweets
Unless there’s some very important detail missing here, this is really messed up.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/hong-kong-montreal-pride-1.5260820