Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law

Higher disapproval ratings for both leaders in the latest Essential poll, which also records lukewarm feelings towards the United States and cooler ones for China.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll again comes up empty on voting intention, but it does offer the pollster’s third set of leadership ratings since the election. As with Newspoll, these record a drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval rating, owing to a three point rise in disapproval to 37%, while his approval holds steady at 48%. However, Essential parts company with Newspoll in finding Anthony Albanese up on disapproval as well, by five points to 29%, with approval down one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 44-26 to 44-28.

Further questions suggest the public leans positive on most aspects of the “influence of the United States of America” (defence, trade, cultural and business), excepting a neutral result (42% positive, 40% negative) for influence on Australian politics. The same exercise for China finds positive results for trade, neutral results for culture and business, and negative ones for defence and politics. Asked which of the two we would most benefit from strengthening ties with, 38% of respondents favoured the US and 28% China.

The small sample of respondents from New South Wales were also asked about the proposed removal of abortion from the criminal code, which was supported by an overwhelming 71% compared with 17% opposed. The poll has a sample of 1096 and was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Note also the post below this one, being the latest Brexit update from Adrian Beaumont.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,826 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law”

Comments Page 15 of 37
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  1. adrian @ #699 Friday, August 23rd, 2019 – 2:58 pm

    So obsessed with the greens is the Boer, that he sees them everywhere, even when they’re members of the ALP.
    Or maybe they’re double agents? Better report me to head office Boer!

    He’s spending so much time on here lately one can only assume he’s been defeated by the wombats he’s declared war on. If only he’d spent all his money on a bow and arrow instead of all that military hardware he loves he could’ve shown those pesky wombats who’s the boss. 😀

  2. Our suave, sophisticated PM in action.

    Sara @_sara_jade_
    16m

    Vietnamese PM Nguyen Xuan Phuc open BL. Comfortable & confident.
    Aust PM Scott Morrison closed BL. Fig leaf gesture insecurity. Defensive, feeling discomfort and the need to protect his most vulnerable body parts. Feels exposed. #auspol

  5. You learn something every day. Hitler and Stalin invaded Poland at about the same time, by agreement!

    Everyone remembers Hitler invading Poland on September 1st 1939. A lot of people conveniently forget that the USSR invaded Poland from the east only a few weeks later. Indeed, Soviet and German troops staged a joint parade at Brest, along their newly defined frontier.

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/08/22/hidden-history-the-nazi-soviet-pact-which-russia-now-tries-t

  7. lizzie @ #702 Friday, August 23rd, 2019 – 5:10 pm

    Our suave, sophisticated PM in action.

    Sara @_sara_jade_
    16m

    Vietnamese PM Nguyen Xuan Phuc open BL. Comfortable & confident.
    Aust PM Scott Morrison closed BL. Fig leaf gesture insecurity. Defensive, feeling discomfort and the need to protect his most vulnerable body parts. Feels exposed. #auspol

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    In casual conversation – simply mentioning the word “castration ” tends to have the “gentlemen” adopting a “clutching the crutch ” pose.

    Quite different to the gunfighter pose where the fingers point to the area of insecutity/insufficiency.

    Anyone for cricket ❓

  8. To shake a lot of Australians out of their complacency as I see, an economic crisis needs to occur. Something like a collapse in the housing market, leading to the banks facing the brink of failure, which will result in them being bailed out and harsh austerity imposed to pay for that bank bailout.

    At the same time Australia enters an economic depression where official unemployment rises to 20% or more. Also governments both state and federal, deal with the wave of protests by tear gassing, tasering protesters and even calling out the Army onto the streets.

    I am very convinced all this will occur in the next say five years. Because I am seriously making preparations for all this to occur.

  9. An investigation has revealed that a massive fraud and corruption scandal could soon erupt in Australia and North America. At issue is the recently approved anti-malarial drug tafenoquine, as evidence shows that regulatory processes were obfuscated and the drug was approved under fraudulent circumstances. Many of the people involved are current or former members of the Australian Defense Forces as well as at least one former member of the United States Army. The people implicated have had or currently occupy senior positions in the ADF, and could go even higher yet.

    https://onecalgaryvoter.com/2019/08/22/exclusive-international-fraud-corruption-scandal-brewing/

  10. Right. The mining of coal contributes 5% of Australian GHG emissions. From the way the Lib-kin campaign, we’d be entitled to think it was 95% and that by itself the cessation of mining in Queensland alone could prevent global heating.

    On their own numbers, the Lib-kin cannot claim that mining is causally related to the harm caused by climate change to the GBR.

    The impact of mining for coal in all Australian jurisdictions by itself cannot account for global warming. The emissions that result from combustion drive global warming and are so-called Scope 3 emissions. They are demand driven, not supply driven. We need to focus our effort on things that will work rather than on things that are politically expedient.

  13. Tristo says:
    Friday, August 23, 2019 at 5:19 pm
    To shake a lot of Australians out of their complacency as I see, an economic crisis needs to occur. Something like a collapse in the housing market, leading to the banks facing the brink of failure, which will result in them being bailed out and harsh austerity imposed to pay for that bank bailout.

    1. If there’s a crisis it will drive voters to the right.
    2. If the banks have to bailed out there will be no need for austerity. The RBA would be able to expand its balance sheet at will and absorb the banks before selling them back to the market. The RBA would make a profit on it.

  14. On your best behaviour now boys and girls.
    The dude with the yellow and red cards must be due anytime now.

    All together now —
    Hymn number 43 “Shall We Gather at the River ❓ ”

    Not the Murray/Darling

    The beautiful, the beautiful, the river…….

  15. Adrian
    “The tweet I quoted asked a valid question, and you might ask yourself why the US is manufacturing a conflict with Iran, to which we have inevitably been dragged.”

    I missed the context for this comment, but I absolutely agree that this Strait of Hormuz thing is a total concoction. Trump/US, in cahoots with Israel and Saudi Arabia, have fabricated a pretext to stick it to Iran.

    I suspect the Australian government is genuinely reluctant to participate in this tinpot operation. But it allows us to show we’re a willing ally of the US by signing up to actions far from the Pacific. This is our cunning plan to avoid having to join any future US-led venture directed against China in the S.China Sea.

  16. briefly @ #710 Friday, August 23rd, 2019 – 5:25 pm

    We need to focus our effort on things that will work rather than on things that are politically expedient.

    You mean, like eliminating our export of coal (not to mention our own use of it) as fast as possible?

    Because that is the single largest practical contribution to reducing world-wide greenhouse gas emissions that Australia could possibly make.

  17. KayJay @ #714 Friday, August 23rd, 2019 – 5:31 pm

    On your best behaviour now boys and girls.
    The dude with the yellow and red cards must be due anytime now.

    All together now —
    Hymn number 43 “Shall We Gather at the River ❓ ”

    Not the Murray/Darling

    The beautiful, the beautiful, the river…….

    the musically inclined interpret this as “shall we gather at the riffer”.

  18. PO…supplying coal by itself makes no difference to global emissions. None. Zero. Nil.

    Burning coal creates emissions. When generators stop burning coal emissions will fall.

    This is so obvious it’s extraordinary that it should have to be stated so often and that it’s so easily ignored.

    The campaign to disrupt exports is purely political. It will have no impact whatsoever on global heating.


  19. Pegasus says:
    Friday, August 23, 2019 at 4:27 pm

    Boerwar

    Earlier frednk posted:

    And where did they birth for the other 70200 years.
    When did this birthing start, when the tree was a sapling ?
    When did it stop?

    As their culture was seriously disrupted, and contains no written records, who says it is a birthing tree?
    They were nomadic; did they really come back to a particular spot to give birth or is it just a story invented .
    These are probable questions that have been asked.

    Given your experience with First Australians, why don’t you respond to his woeful ignorance and set him right?

    This really does sum up the where the Greens are at.

    If there is no action on climate change humanities entire social structure is at risk, and what is their focus, a 800 year old red gum.

    How many people alive where born under this gum tree? Bet you the answer is zero.
    Out of curiosity, who know it was a birthing tree? Bet you it was a story made up after too many beers.

    Actually how many people knew people went to a particular tree to give birth? I was linked to article that showed how little we know about the culture destroyed, now we know this?

    I know google doesn’t know all but type in birthing tree the sum total seems to be one.

    First order wanking the environment can no longer afford.

    As to the reality.
    It’s a red gum.
    Red gums live 500 to 1000 years. If the tree is 800 years it is on its last legs. The trunk is hollowed out, won’t last past the next good storm.

    When it comes to soaking up CO2 young trees do a better job.
    I would be fighting for it not to get burnt.

    First order nonsense when there are very significant issues to deal with; issues being blocked by the Greens. Issues that need a solid support be a wide range of people to deal with, not this nonsense.

  21. Very fortunately the rate of growth of coal combustion is falling. The volumes will soon start to decline if they have not already.

    This change in trajectory has nothing whatsoever to do with mining or not mining, nor with the Lib-kin campaign. It is driven by the adoption of substitutes.

  24. Australian total Scope 1,2,3 emissions are mountainous, especially if the processing of iron ore is included. The gas sector is truly a vast producer of emissions.

    But the Lib-kin focus on coal. They are Thatcherite in this respect.

  25. Albert Einstein saw how full employment transfers power to workers:

    One of capitalism’s cleverest maneuvers, as Albert Einstein wrote in his essay “Why Socialism?” in 1949, is that “There is no provision that all those able and willing to work will always be in a position to find employment; an ‘army of unemployed’ almost always exists. The worker is constantly in fear of losing his job.”

    The result of chronic unemployment is that workers are willing to accept wages that are far too low to provide financial security and decent living conditions — wages they would otherwise reject, if their feet weren’t held to the fire. Another consequence is that workers who fear unemployment are afraid to organize in their workplaces, because the boss can simply fire them, and they may not be able to find work easily. The bosses, meanwhile, don’t have to worry about the consequences of laying people off, because there’s always a long line of unemployed people waiting in the wings to replace them.

    On the political side, chronic unemployment also means that workers can easily be convinced that the government must cater to the interests of capitalists, because if it doesn’t, the capitalists will get angry and disinvest, taking jobs with them as they slam the door. Full employment can’t solve that problem entirely — but imagine how much braver workers could be in demanding that corporations stop running roughshod over society if they had confidence that the public sector could fill the employment gap left by corporate shuttering or outsourcing.

    Full employment would constitute a massive transfer of power to the working class. If workers didn’t have to worry so much about about being fired or laid off, they could be a lot bolder, and they could exert a great deal more pressure on the capitalist class. Workers would stand a much better chance at wringing concessions that could improve life for hundreds of millions of people, whether that’s better pay for themselves or universal health care for all.

    https://jacobinmag.com/2019/08/bernie-sanders-green-new-deal-job-guarantee-unemployment

  27. briefly @ #718 Friday, August 23rd, 2019 – 5:38 pm

    PO…supplying coal by itself makes no difference to global emissions. None. Zero. Nil.

    Burning coal creates emissions. When generators stop burning coal emissions will fall.

    This is so obvious it’s extraordinary that it should have to be stated so often and that it’s so easily ignored.

    The campaign to disrupt exports is purely political. It will have no impact whatsoever on global heating.

    I thought we had gotten you over this nonsense. Just mining the coal makes a difference. Transporting it makes a difference. Burning it makes a difference. Even disposing of the waste makes a difference.

    Anyone who can say with a straight face that “coal by itself makes no difference to global emissions” either works for the fossil fuel industry, or just has zero clue 🙁

  28. Nicholas @ #725 Friday, August 23rd, 2019 – 5:49 pm

    Albert Einstein saw how full employment transfers power to workers:

    One of capitalism’s cleverest maneuvers, as Albert Einstein wrote in his essay “Why Socialism?” in 1949, is that “There is no provision that all those able and willing to work will always be in a position to find employment; an ‘army of unemployed’ almost always exists. The worker is constantly in fear of losing his job.”

    The result of chronic unemployment is that workers are willing to accept wages that are far too low to provide financial security and decent living conditions — wages they would otherwise reject, if their feet weren’t held to the fire. Another consequence is that workers who fear unemployment are afraid to organize in their workplaces, because the boss can simply fire them, and they may not be able to find work easily. The bosses, meanwhile, don’t have to worry about the consequences of laying people off, because there’s always a long line of unemployed people waiting in the wings to replace them.

    On the political side, chronic unemployment also means that workers can easily be convinced that the government must cater to the interests of capitalists, because if it doesn’t, the capitalists will get angry and disinvest, taking jobs with them as they slam the door. Full employment can’t solve that problem entirely — but imagine how much braver workers could be in demanding that corporations stop running roughshod over society if they had confidence that the public sector could fill the employment gap left by corporate shuttering or outsourcing.

    Full employment would constitute a massive transfer of power to the working class. If workers didn’t have to worry so much about about being fired or laid off, they could be a lot bolder, and they could exert a great deal more pressure on the capitalist class. Workers would stand a much better chance at wringing concessions that could improve life for hundreds of millions of people, whether that’s better pay for themselves or universal health care for all.

    https://jacobinmag.com/2019/08/bernie-sanders-green-new-deal-job-guarantee-unemployment

    Einstein also invented the theory of relatives which never persuaded me much.

  29. “a calmness has descended upon Canberra since Morrison knifed Mal…calm because Parl has met 10 times in 365”

    Christine Phillips @cscviews
    ·25m
    Indeed,the place is empty of politicians most of the time; and if #Morrison has his way, he will empty it of public servants as well. See what that does to the economic viability of the national capital. The frenetic polishing of this #auspol is mind boggling. Grattan at it too

  31. @briefly

    Correction an economic crisis, will make many voters flock to the extreme right. Scott Morrison would definitely in response move his government even further to the right. Since Morrison is capable of going full on Trumpian (minus Trump’s erratic behavior) if he thought it would be politically profitable. The evidence is certainly there, since Morrison was reported to arguing for the Coalition to adopt an anti-Muslim strategy back in 2011. Also I am confident we would have had a race based election last May, if the Christchurch shooting had not happened.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-sees-votes-in-anti-muslim-strategy-20110216-1awmo.html

  32. PO…stop verballing me.

    Face it. The demand to cease coal mining – by itself – is pointless. In particular, mining is not causally connected to the harm done by GHG to the GBR. There’s a lot more to it than the Lib-kin make out. Their campaign even if it succeeded would not change anything. It is therefore just a stunt carried out for political reasons at the expense of coal miners.

  34. Einstein knew labour repression when he saw it.

    This is a deliberate policy of the Reactionaries – Reactionaries who are kept in power in this country by the Lib-kin.

    I’m on the same page as Albert. Good.

  36. The ALP fanatics were telling us that Rudd and Gillard’s presence at the ALP campaign launch showed that they liked Shorten. Wrong. Rudd was after Shortens’ endorsement for UN Secretary General. Gillard wanted to be Governor General. This was how Shorten was going to make it up to them both for knifing them.

    Now Rudd says that Shortens policy was nuts and that the Australian public “didn’t like him or trust him”.

    Truth in defeat.

  38. @briefly

    For real change in this nation to occur, I am increasingly believing the populace need to endure a lot of pain, before the great majority of people wake up.

  40. Tristo says:
    Friday, August 23, 2019 at 6:06 pm
    @briefly

    For real change in this nation to occur, I am increasingly believing the populace need to endure a lot of pain, before the great majority of people wake up.

    Yet you think a crisis will move opinion to the Right. I agree with that. This has been the usual response in Australia of voters to economic stress.

    Your argument does not make sense unless you hope for a Rightist result.

  41. Listening to Kevin Rudd today, he certainly slapped around Malcolm Turnbull for insulting the Comrades – and diplomatically, said ‘so far’ Morrison looked better than the hopeless ‘hairy chested’ Malcolm.

    He also said why he thought Labor lost the election. And I will try to repeat what he actually said, not what nath is trying to verbal. nath obviously hasn’t studied the bible verses I gave him last night.

    So the Ruddster’s take had 3 reasons:

    1. The Australian people, rightly or wrongly, didn’t warm to Bill Shorten. Rightly or wrongly.
    2. Trying to adjust retirement taxes and policies from Opposition is fraught with danger, as they can be easily turned into a scare campaign. These adjustments are best done from government, where changes can be explained better.
    3. The anti Labor campaign from the Murdoch Press was relentless, the worst he had ever seen.

  42. @briefly

    Actually the end result of all this, if it actually happens in my opinion, will be a Eco-socialist Revolution initiated by Generation Zers and lesser extent Millennial’s. Because the people are going to tolerate only so much Corporate Fascism, especially those generations.

  43. And here is 9fax’s take on what Rudd said, selectively quoting also, but with more balance than nath..

    By Dana McCauley
    August 23, 2019 — 3.52pm

    Former prime minister Kevin Rudd has lashed members of the Liberal party for whipping up national “hysteria” over China, describing outspoken backbencher Andrew Hastie as “post-pubescent” and warning of a descent into “neo-McCarthyism”.

    Mr Rudd said Mr Hastie’s recent comments had poured “a whole lot of petrol” onto what has always been “a complex and difficult relationship” between Australia and its largest trading partner, while blaming former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull for tensions.

    “I’m always cautious about post-pubescent politicians … or pre-pubescent in his case, I’m not sure, the best way to make a name for yourself within the raging beast of Australian conservatism is to whack the Chinese on the head,” Mr Rudd told the Canberra Writers Festival on Friday.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rudd-slams-post-pubescent-liberal-politicians-over-china-hysteria-20190823-p52k2b.html

  44. Given today’s potential Rudd/Abbott reconciliation, and given Labor’s shambolic disarray on the issue, this may be an appropriate time to point out that a Liberal government that embraced meaningful action on global warming could expect to rule Australia … well, forever.

    To be honest, they would get my vote – and I have been a Labor voter for longer than most posters here have been alive.

  47. Outlook for Australian coal exports to India is a lot dimmer than claimed by Canavan, says the office of the Australian Chief Economist.

    (I didn’t know Australia had a Chief Economist, something like the Chief Scientist role I suppose.)

    Australian thermal coal exporters warned of falling demand from India.

    Report says outlook in India is ‘finely balanced and uncertain’ despite resources industry’s high hopes.

    Thermal coal exporters face “significant risk” that demand from India will decline, a report by the Australian office of the chief economist says.

    It also warned of long-term uncertainties in the market considered a “great hope” by miners.

    The report, released on Friday, came as the resources minister, Matt Canavan, prepared to visit India to spruik the Australian resources sector. He argued India has an “astonishing” appetite for Australian thermal coal that could support “three to four new Adani-sized coalmines”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/23/australian-thermal-coal-exporters-warned-of-falling-demand-from-india

  49. nath says:
    Friday, August 23, 2019 at 6:04 pm
    The ALP fanatics were telling us that Rudd and Gillard’s presence at the ALP campaign launch showed that they liked Shorten. Wrong. Rudd was after Shortens’ endorsement for UN Secretary General. Gillard wanted to be Governor General. This was how Shorten was going to make it up to them both for knifing them.

    Now Rudd says that Shortens policy was nuts and that the Australian public “didn’t like him or trust him”.

    Truth in defeat.
    ______________________________
    It shows the need for a truth and reconciliation commission for the healing once the ALP is wound up.

  50. @briefly

    Maybe I am, however in recent months my view of the future to come, beyond the next few years have become increasingly brightening and even euphoric.

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