Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law

Higher disapproval ratings for both leaders in the latest Essential poll, which also records lukewarm feelings towards the United States and cooler ones for China.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll again comes up empty on voting intention, but it does offer the pollster’s third set of leadership ratings since the election. As with Newspoll, these record a drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval rating, owing to a three point rise in disapproval to 37%, while his approval holds steady at 48%. However, Essential parts company with Newspoll in finding Anthony Albanese up on disapproval as well, by five points to 29%, with approval down one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 44-26 to 44-28.

Further questions suggest the public leans positive on most aspects of the “influence of the United States of America” (defence, trade, cultural and business), excepting a neutral result (42% positive, 40% negative) for influence on Australian politics. The same exercise for China finds positive results for trade, neutral results for culture and business, and negative ones for defence and politics. Asked which of the two we would most benefit from strengthening ties with, 38% of respondents favoured the US and 28% China.

The small sample of respondents from New South Wales were also asked about the proposed removal of abortion from the criminal code, which was supported by an overwhelming 71% compared with 17% opposed. The poll has a sample of 1096 and was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Note also the post below this one, being the latest Brexit update from Adrian Beaumont.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,826 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law”

  1. Good Morning!

    (She types hopefully, praying we don’t get flooded with Greens bilgewater again today). 🙂

    It’s tired guys! Did you not see the last Newspoll (for what they are worth)? Greens on 11% (0). No change. That’s it. So, for all the energy you expend here, day after day, you don’t seem to be having an effect out there in punterland.

  2. Trump just delivered a weapons-grade crazy rant in front of reporters — here are the 7 worst moments

    1.) Trump doubles down on his smear that the majority of American Jews are “disloyal” to Israel
    2.) Trump bizarrely declares himself “the chosen one” in a rant about trade with China.
    3.) Trump erupts at the Danish prime minister for spurning his plan to buy Greenland.
    4.) Trump yells at NBC News’ Peter Alexander
    5.) Trump threatens to release ISIS fighters into Germany and France.
    6.) Trump accuses the media of trying to create a recession just to make him look bad.
    7.) Trump lobbies for Russia to be let back into the G8 because their only crime was “outsmarting Obama.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/trump-just-delivered-a-weapons-grade-crazy-rant-in-front-of-reporters-here-are-the-7-worst-moments/

  3. #25thAmendmentNow is now the top trending topic after Trump calls himself ‘The Chosen One’

    President Tweets He’s ‘The Second Coming of God’

    President Donald Trump appeared even more unhinged on Wednesday, kicking his day off by posting tweets calling him “the second coming of God,” and the “King of Israel.” Just hours later Trump trashed the Prime Minister of Denmark, calling Mette Frederiksen’s negative response to him wanting to buy Greenland from them “nasty” – a word he generally reserves for women he does not like.

    That’s just a sample of all the insanity Trump has created in under 24 hours.

    So perhaps it’s not surprise that #25thAmendmentNow is the top trending topic on Twitter right now, and has been for hours.

    The 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution provides the pathway for the Vice President to declare the President of the United States unfit to contemn serving.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/25thamendmentnow-is-now-the-top-trending-topic-after-trump-calls-himself-the-chosen-one/

  4. Like a multi vehicle car crash, we can’t take our eyes off this….

    ‘Over an ensuing half-hour rant, Trump trucked in antisemitic tropes, insulted the Danish prime minister, insisted he wasn’t racist, bragged about the performance of his former Apprentice reality show, denied starting a trade war with China, praised Vladimir Putin and told reporters that he, Trump, was the “chosen one” – all within hours of referring to himself as the “King of Israel” and tweeting in all caps: “WHERE IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE?”

    Leaving aside those who were left merely gape-jawed, the performance inspired reactions from new expressions of doubt about Trump’s fitness for office to evocations of “the last president I know of who compared himself to the Messiah”.

    (That turns out, according to Brookings Institution fellow Benjamin Wittes, to be Andrew Johnson (1865-9), whose articles of impeachment cited his “intemperate, inflammatory and scandalous harangues”.)

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/21/trump-press-conference-greenland-jewish-democrats?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1566421086

  5. Good Morning

    PR I am still very surprised Labor people are saying don’t link Morrison to Trump. Gobsmacked in fact. He is such a disaster that he is making Nixon look good. Tying Morrison to Trump is not hard when Morrison is tying the knots.

    Not only has he put us into a war but he has also this state dinner to go to. The only other leader that Trump has done that with is Macron of France. So unless Morrison directly contradicts Trump like Macron did the public is going to make that connection. I am sure the Greens Central Alliance Andrew Wilkie et al won’t be backward in doing the same.

    All Labor people have to do is remember the reaction to when Pauline Hanson cheered Trump’s election with that champagne celebration in parliament house.

    Morrison has decided to take on being with the jew hating President. Are Labor going to join him?

  6. This one is especially boneheaded of Trump:


    5.) Trump threatens to release ISIS fighters into Germany and France.

    The moment they were let off the American plane, if it was even allowed to land by the German and French authorities, the Special Forces of those countries would be waiting to take the ISIS fighters into custody again!

    Trump is an unhinged megalomaniac.

  7. Perhaps ScoMo could introduce Trump to his Pentecostal cult, since Trump already seems to have the gift of speaking in tongues, believes himself to be Chosen, and relies on his wealth for fulfilment.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Here we go again! Australia will send 200 troops to the Middle East to protect crucial oil supplies from Iranian forces in a mission Prime Minister Scott Morrison concedes may extend beyond the initial six-month deployment.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-to-send-200-troops-to-the-middle-east-to-protect-oil-supplies-20190821-p52jdi.html
    Former Department of Defence secretary Paul Barrett tells us why Australia should not be joining US action against Iran. He says the destabilising behaviour was initiated by our ally, the US, and sending additional troops, planes and ships into an increasingly tense situation is not a move likely to de-escalate tensions. This is a great read!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/echoes-of-iraq-why-australia-shouldn-t-be-joining-us-action-against-iran-20190821-p52jac.html
    And the SMH editorial says that the history of the invasion of Iraq should weigh heavily on the minds of Australians as we once again send troops into harm’s way in the Middle East. It concludes with a well deserved swipe at Trump.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shadow-of-iraq-war-hangs-over-mission-to-the-persian-gulf-20190821-p52jfq.html
    Pressor Natalie Klein explains what the conflict between the US and Iran is about and how Australia is now involved.
    https://theconversation.com/infographic-what-is-the-conflict-between-the-us-and-iran-about-and-how-is-australia-now-involved-121490
    Greg Jericho explains how Trump’s ego and economic ignorance could tip Australia into recession.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/aug/22/how-donald-trumps-ego-and-economic-ignorance-could-tip-australia-into-recession
    Meanwhile US federal debt will top $1 trillion next year even as Donald Trump explores tax cuts and other giveaways that are only likely to increase the deficit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/21/us-federal-deficit-1tn-next-year-report
    With wages stagnating and the cost of living continuing to balloon, the Government remains silent in the face of this crisis, writes William Olson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-wages-crisis-the-coalition-government-is-shirking-its-duty,13022
    Federal funding for a $20 billion-plus metro rail line between Parramatta and the Sydney CBD should form the core of a new focus on Sydney’s suburban core, according to a new analysis.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/an-afterthought-call-for-sweeping-overhaul-of-sydney-s-central-city-20190821-p52j8c.html
    The strength of one judge’s support for George Pell has given the disgraced cardinal’s legal team hope his convictions on child sex abuse charges could be overturned by the High Court writes Adam Cooper.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/pell-s-lawyers-set-to-make-last-ditch-appeal-to-high-court-20190821-p52jgu.html
    In an informed contribution the former religion editor for Fairfax Barney Zwartz writes that the failure of Pell’s appeal will help heal abuse survivors.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/failure-of-pell-s-appeal-will-help-heal-abuse-survivors-20190821-p52jap.html
    David Marr is always worth reading on this subject.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/21/at-the-verdict-george-pell-pursed-his-lips-he-was-going-back-to-prison
    Tammy Mills dissects the Pell appeal judgement.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/it-all-comes-downs-to-belief-victim-s-credibility-at-heart-of-pell-decision-20190821-p52jfk.html
    As does The Guardian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/21/he-was-a-witness-of-truth-why-the-judges-decided-cardinal-george-pell-was-guilty
    While Chip le Grand examines the dissenting judge’s rationale.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/prayer-the-only-comfort-for-sinner-after-george-pell-s-appeal-is-rejected-20190821-p52jhb.html
    Melbourne’s Catholic Archbishop says he accepts the decision to uphold George Pell’s conviction but has stopped short of condemning his predecessor or offering an apology to the disgraced Cardinal’s victims. Charming!
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/after-demanding-distressing-process-archbishop-accepts-pell-ruling-20190821-p52j7w.html
    And check out all the pro-Pell articles in The Australian today!
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/
    Dana McCauley tells us about the stoush between private health insurers and medical device manufacturers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/remove-rugs-from-aged-care-to-reduce-health-insurance-costs-report-says-20190820-p52itv.html
    More from McCauley as she explains how pressure is mounting on the Coalition to fix legal uncertainty over “double dipping” of casual loadings and entitlements after a major union launched a $12 million class action.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/more-pressure-to-fix-casual-double-dipping-following-12-million-class-action-20190821-p52j7x.html
    The nation’s leading scientists have started a publicity campaign to dispel what they say are unfounded fears over genetically modified foods.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6340237/top-scientists-slam-ignorance-about-genetically-modified-food/?cs=14225&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews
    Former ministers – and the organisations that hire them – should have their access to Parliament House revoked if they are found to breach the lobbying code of conduct, a Senate inquiry has been told by the Grattan Institute.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6340079/you-shall-not-pass-lobbying-ex-ministers-should-have-parliament-access-revoked/?cs=14350
    The regular strains on the grid during peak summer demand will be exacerbated this year if repairs at Loy Yang A and in Mortlake are not completed.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/power-strains-predicted-for-grid-this-summer-if-repairs-fail-20190821-p52jfl.html
    People who receive payouts from financial institutions over rip-off services have been warned by the ATO they may face “tax consequences”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/tax/tax-office-targets-slice-of-banking-scandal-compensation-payments-20190820-p52ivj.html
    The abortion debate tearing at the NSW Coalition threatens to spill into the federal sphere following revelations state Nationals have discussed expelling Barnaby Joyce from the party.
    https://outline.com/fNagdY
    Historian Prudence Flowers tells us how the US right-to-life movement is influencing the abortion debate in Australia.
    https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-right-to-life-movement-is-influencing-the-abortion-debate-in-australia-121974
    There have been more suicides so far in 2019 than this time last year but the Commonwealth and the states talk but do little. As of the first day of August, I estimate that 1,700 Australians have been lost to suicide, more than this time last year.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/suicide-hits-the-poor-and-disadvantaged,13023
    Steve Evans writes about the welcome dullness of Australian politics.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6326346/the-welcome-dullness-of-australian-politics/?cs=14258&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews
    “Is Crown now too hot for China’s VIP players?”, asks Elizabeth Knight.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/is-crown-now-too-hot-for-china-s-vip-players-20190821-p52jdx.html
    There has been an almost 20-fold increase in police strip searches in NSW in less than 12 years. It’s time the law caught up with other states write Vicki Sentas and Michael Grewcock.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/humiliating-strip-searches-are-illegal-yet-even-police-are-confused-by-the-law-20190821-p52j8s.html
    Planning continues to be a big issue in Sydney.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/martin-place-towers-gain-final-approval-despite-concerns-20190821-p52j7i.html
    Just as in 1914, the Brexit build up is making calamity feel inevitable writes Rafael Behr in the UK Guardian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/21/1914-brexit-calamity-inevitable-remainers
    According to Martin Kettle Britain and Italy are now the terrible twins of Europe.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/21/britain-italy-politically-bankrupt-salvini-boris-johnson
    The incredibly thin skinned Trump has attacked Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, saying she made “nasty” comments about his interest in having the US purchase Greenland.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/in-denmark-surprise-and-fury-after-trump-cancels-visit-over-greenland-20190822-p52jis.html
    And Danish politicians have blasted Donald Trump after he bizarrely declared he wanted to buy Greenland, then cancelled his visit after prime minister Mette Frederiksen informed him it was not for sale.
    https://outline.com/w4wemu
    Trump wanting to buy Greenland is yet another sign of Putin’s puppetry writes Richard Wolffe.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/21/trump-wanting-to-buy-greenland-is-yet-another-sign-of-putins-puppetry
    Emma Goldberg says that Trump’s tweets about ‘disloyal’ Jews are laced with centuries of antisemitism.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/21/trumps-tweets-about-disloyal-jews-are-laced-with-centuries-of-anti-semitism

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and our latest Middle East adventure.

    Wow! David Pope gives Morrison the full lapdog treatment.

    From Matt Golding.







    Nice work from Cathy Wilcox.

    Sean Leahy delivers the good news to Pell.

    A suggestion from John Shakespeare for Jones’s studio.

    Peter Broelman goes to Uluru with Porline.

    Zanetti and the abortion woes of Gladys.

    Jon Kudelka in the Straits of Homuz.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4265000351d352025fb22ed012ad0862?width=1024

    From the US









  9. Overnight, I heard Adele Ferguson talking about her book on the Bad Banks and about regulatory weakness in general. The efforts that the Coalition, especially Cormann and Turnbull, made to prevent the Royal Commission were incredible. It was said that Australia is a “paradise for white crime”.

    Adele also said that she was concerned that the enquiry into Aged Care is not getting the attention in the media that it deserves, and wondered why.

  10. phoenixRED @ #5 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 6:57 am

    #25thAmendmentNow is now the top trending topic after Trump calls himself ‘The Chosen One’

    President Tweets He’s ‘The Second Coming of God’

    President Donald Trump appeared even more unhinged on Wednesday, kicking his day off by posting tweets calling him “the second coming of God,” and the “King of Israel.” Just hours later Trump trashed the Prime Minister of Denmark, calling Mette Frederiksen’s negative response to him wanting to buy Greenland from them “nasty” – a word he generally reserves for women he does not like.

    That’s just a sample of all the insanity Trump has created in under 24 hours.

    So perhaps it’s not surprise that #25thAmendmentNow is the top trending topic on Twitter right now, and has been for hours.

    The 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution provides the pathway for the Vice President to declare the President of the United States unfit to contemn serving.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/25thamendmentnow-is-now-the-top-trending-topic-after-trump-calls-himself-the-chosen-one/

    Hopefully, the voters at the next US Election will choose someone else.

  11. Calm down people. Trump “The Chosen One” was just playing to this audience. Lining up these voters for the next election.

    The chosen one? The new film that claims Trump’s election was an act of God

    The belief that Trump’s election was God’s divine will is shared by others. Franklin Graham, the prominent conservative evangelical, said last year that Trump’s victory was the result of divine intervention. “I could sense going across the country that God was going to do something this year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/03/the-trump-prophecy-film-god-election-mark-taylor
    From the article, I wonder if Scrott is far enough up himself to believe the same thing ? Would not be at all surprised.

    It was, everyone agreed, a miracle. The unexpected election of Donald Trump in 2016 was an act of God,

  12. Tents are mushrooming across a grassy plain as a 200-strong crowd of Indigenous activists and protesters join the traditional owners in protecting the trees from being destroyed to make way for duplication of the Western Highway #springst http://ow.ly/ZMe830poh7H

  13. I think such statements as Socrates has made, are to be filed under the heading of, ‘cutting off your nose despite your face just to make yourself feel good’. Whilst at one and the same time ignoring the subtlety of the move, which is in concert with other policies to massively increase Renewable Energy generation in Queensland and so to diminish the need, without making it obvious, for Coal.

    The Renewable Energy investments won’t happen if a Coalition State government is elected in Queensland. But it will give the unsophisticated sanctimonious a warm fuzzy feeling of schadenfreude I guess.

  14. Cat

    You have been using that cut off the nose to spite your face line for years. Before at least Labor was not officially FOR coal. Next we will see Albo join Morrison in waving a lump of coal about in parliament at the rate Labor is going

  15. poroti @ #17 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 7:27 am

    Calm down people Trump “The Chosen One” was just playing to this audience. Lining up these voters for the next election.

    The chosen one? The new film that claims Trump’s election was an act of God

    The belief that Trump’s election was God’s divine will is shared by others. Franklin Graham, the prominent conservative evangelical, said last year that Trump’s victory was the result of divine intervention. “I could sense going across the country that God was going to do something this year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/03/the-trump-prophecy-film-god-election-mark-taylor
    From the article, I wonder of Scrott is far enough up himself to believe the same thing ? Would not be at all surprised.

    It was, everyone agreed, a miracle. The unexpected election of Donald Trump in 2016 was an act of God,

    Insurance Companies use “act of God” to describe catastrophic disasters that could not have been predicted.

  16. C@tmomma

    But it will give the unsophisticated sanctimonious a warm fuzzy feeling of schadenfreude I guess.

    😆 In the sophistication stakes I’m betting Socrates will be a lap ahead of you.

  17. Cat
    When Labor calls looking after coal miners on $150k+ social justice then it has ceased to be a labour party. Meanwhile the living standards of millions of others go backwards. It is pure expediency, from a leadership that has given up the fight. It is time to call it what it is. Labor needs to have the ticker to fight for what it claims to be. At this rate Labor will be in opposition till 2030.

  18. C@t

    Sorry, but I have to correct you before your version becomes the accepted one, which can happen so fast on SM.
    .
    It’s to “cut off your nose to spite your face”.


  19. guytaur says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 7:06 am

    Good Morning

    PR I am still very surprised Labor people are saying don’t link Morrison to Trump. Gobsmacked in fact. He is such a disaster that he is making Nixon look good. Tying Morrison to Trump is not hard when Morrison is tying the knots.


    What is this nonsense about?
    There must be something in the air; it would seem that guytaur is joining trump with weapons grade nonsense.

  20. frednk

    You are delusional in not taking advantage of the Trump disaster for Labor. The neo liberal project is falling apart.

    Trump and Morrison are joined at the hip on economics except for tariff’s. Both want slave wages. Both want plutocracy to triumph with jobs for mates. The links are making themselves and Labor is failing if its not taking advantage of this historical unholy alliance.

  21. Tony Windsor @TonyHWindsor
    ·
    18m
    I support Mr Joyce’s right to speak out on social issues and recognise his consistent stances on supporting adultery, lying,cheating, fornicating, bullying… all are indicators of his staunchly held religious views and his attitude to women. All on the day Pell went down!

  22. Alastair Nicholson @alasnich
    ·
    20h
    Time and time again Australia tugs the forelock to our” great and powerful friends”, this time ignoring the facts that the US and Britan are led by nutters and that the current problem stems from the US breach of the treaty with Iran

  23. Thought for the day.

    Adam Liaw @adamliaw
    ·
    6m
    As a society we focus a lot on the newsworthiness of our worst criminals, so we sometimes forget that there are a lot of everyday people who are also absolute garbage.

  24. guytaur

    The Trump disaster you speak of is causing destabilisation around the globe in terms of national security and the general economy.

    Labor would be foolish to play political games for some type of perceived advantage.
    Heck we still dont have a clear picture of what happened with that nuclear missile in Russia and if there is fallout etc

  25. At least eight Bureau of Prisons staffers knew that strict instructions had been given not to leave multimillionaire sex offender Jeffrey Epstein alone in his cell, yet the order was apparently ignored in the 24 hours leading up to his death, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The fact that so many prison officials were aware of the directive — not just low-level correctional officers, but supervisors and managers — has alarmed investigators assessing what so far appears to be a stunning failure to follow instructions, these people said. Like others, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing investigations. They declined to identify the eight.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/at-least-eight-jail-officials-knew-jeffrey-epstein-was-not-to-be-left-alone-in-cell/2019/08/21/28cefc8e-c437-11e9-9986-1fb3e4397be4_story.html

  26. uytaur says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 8:10 am


    frednk

    You are delusional in not taking advantage of the Trump disaster for Labor. The neo liberal project is falling apart.

    Trump and Morrison are joined at the hip on economics except for tariff’s. Both want slave wages. Both want plutocracy to triumph with jobs for mates. The links are making themselves and Labor is failing if its not taking advantage of this historical unholy alliance.

    You have jumped the shark and hit the rocks. Even attempting to put a rational spin on your latest rants is impossible.

  27. Victoria

    You can play hell with the economic politics that brought Trump to fruition. The loss of hope for workers with slave wages gave rise to Trump.

    The same is happening here as inequality increases. There are many economists telling us that inequality is the cause of extremism. In fact Labor took this to the last election so its not like Labor disbelieves this.

    All I am saying is use the reality. Tie them together Trump is the result of the Thatcher and Reagan economic policies of no empathy with their its all the individual and no room for collective action.
    You don’t have to go extreme left dictatorship to do this. You only have to defend the whole ethos that brought about Medicare.

    That means being real about collective action. That means be real about the role of government. That means be real about increasing taxes for the government to be able to deliver those services under its control.

    Its not that hard if you take away the neo liberal tax cuts are everything and to even mention tax increases are toxic to voters narrative Labor has bought into. We know from elections that voters will vote for tax increases if they deliver services not just from political polling results saying the same thing.

  28. Guytaur

    What purpose is Labor going to serve right now? Morrison and the libs are in power for the next three years. Lots of stuff to happen between now and then. China, USA, UK and Brexit just to name a few. Much to navigate. Playing political childish games isnt one of them

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