Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
In the Westminster system, the government usually controls the lower house of parliament, so bills passed contrary to the government’s wishes are relatively rare. If the UK Parliament were to pass a bill requiring Boris Johnson to seek a Brexit extension beyond the current October 31 deadline, he has two options to defy Parliament. It is the PM, not Parliament, that needs to make the extension request to the European Union leaders.
First, Johnson could advise the Queen to refuse royal assent. As Anne Twomey wrote in January, such a move would put the Queen in an invidious position: she would need to make a political choice between accepting the advice of ministers, or the advice of Parliament. The Queen would be likely to accept Parliament’s advice and give royal assent, as a government that advised to refuse assent would be an admission it had lost confidence.
A second option for Johnson would be to simply ignore any legislation passed contrary to the government’s wishes. Parliament can legislate, but it is the government that implements and enforces that legislation with its civil servants, police and courts. Civil servants are highly unlikely to defy Parliament en masse, but legislation requiring Johnson to seek an extension would attempt to only bind him, and I do not believe there is any way Parliament can force Johnson to comply – except by sacking him and appointing someone more friendly to Parliament as PM.
If there is a no-confidence vote in Johnson, he would remain caretaker PM until an ensuing election unless the Commons voted for confidence in a new government within 14 days after the initial no-confidence vote. As I said in my previous article, such an election could be held on or after October 31, by which time a no-deal Brexit would have occurred.
To thwart a no-deal Brexit, the Commons must express confidence in a new government before the 14 days have elapsed. If Johnson tried to hang on after someone else had won the confidence of the Commons, I believe the Queen would sack him. The problem for opponents of a no-deal Brexit is that there is currently no viable alternative government.
Jeremy Corbyn has proposed that everyone who wants to stop a no-deal support a temporary Corbyn government that would extend Brexit and call a general election. His main problem is that, while there are some Conservative MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit, they won’t vote for a socialist PM even to prevent that outcome.
As commentator Stephen Bush argued, it would be politically self-destructive for Corbyn to allow someone else to become PM, as doing so would validate his critics’ contention that he is unfit to be PM. Some far-left Labour MPs might resist backing a non-Corbyn PM even if Corbyn were to stand aside.
A third way for Parliament to thwart no-deal is to revoke the Article 50 legislation. Assuming such a revocation received royal assent, Brexit would be cancelled. On April 1, a Commons amendment to revoke was defeated by 292 votes to 191. While there is a Commons majority against no-deal, I believe that if the choice was no-deal or no Brexit, no-deal would win.
In summary, a Brexit extension is most likely to pass Parliament, but unlikely to be effective in binding Johnson. An alternative government is not currently viable, and nor is repealing Brexit. If Johnson sticks to his guns, Britain is likely headed over the cliff-edge.
In this discussion, I have ignored the House of Lords. The Lords is far more pro-Remain than the Commons, so any legislation to pass the Commons that moves towards Remain is likely to easily pass the Lords.
A final hope for no-deal opponents is that Johnson is bluffing, and will propose something similar to Theresa May’s rejected deal at the 11th hour. Johnson has ranted against May’s deal since he resigned as foreign secretary in July 2018. He won the Conservative leadership on a promise to get Britain out by October 31, and appointed a hard Leave cabinet. I do not think he is bluffing.
Trump’s ratings slightly down after gun massacres
I wrote for The Conversation on August 14 that Joe Biden continues to lead the US Democratic primaries. Trump’s ratings have fallen slightly since the August 3-4 gun massacres. There has been little movement in Trump’s ratings since that article; his net approval is currently -11.1% with polls of registered or likely voters in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate.
Let Brexit happen. Let far right conservatives put the final nail in the coffin of what was once the world’s largest empire. Look at the joke England has become because of this mess. I say let them have their Brexit so they can isolate themselves and become a backwards and forgotten country with an economy in the toilet. I do feel sorry for the English who want no part of this madness though. I’d be fleeing across a border into the EU ASAP if I were them.
This still leaves the unacceptable situation involving Scotland and Northern Ireland though. A majority in both countries voted to remain. They must be allowed to do so and shouldn’t be dragged down into the mess that England and Wales have made for themselves. Conservatives/Leavers don’t give a toss about what the people of Scotland and Northern Ireland want though. They’ve been systematically screwing over those two countries for centuries and aren’t about to stop now.
Brexit or no Brexit, in the end, Northern Ireland would likely still vote to stay in the UK, not that a border poll is likely to take place any time soon. Scotland may be another matter, but given they had an independence referendum in 2014, they are unlikely to be able to hold another one any time soon.
My hope is that a temporary unity government can be formed to get an EU extension. I do have to disagree with the argument that Corbyn standing aside for someone else in that scenario would somehow strengthen the idea that he is unfit to be Prime Minister. Surely, it can be reasonably argued that in a situation where a unity government needs the support of Conservative MPs, that the person chosen to lead such a government cannot be the current leader of the Opposition.
They will survive don’t you worry about THAT!, I was there during the Second world war, they will
come back in due course.
I am currently reading “War with the Newts”, a 1936 novel by Karel Capek. In it he writes,
“England will never bind itself to the continent.” Capek was Czechoslovakian. This was over 80 years ago, in the years leading up to WW2. But I wonder if he put his finger on it.
If UK Labour are stupid enough to somehow force BREXIT to not happen on 31 October then Napoleon’s words will ring true – Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
From Adrian’s post.
Even in the unlikely event that the UK ask, how likely are the EU27 to agree to another extension? The last time the UK asked for an extension the EU27 said, OK, but we’ll give you an extra few months since you seem to be having trouble. If the UK ask again, what are the chances that this time the reply will be along the lines of “Sorry. We’ve given you more than enough time. We can’t afford this ongoing uncertainty. We know you are leaving. Please, just go.”
I’m predicting a No-deal Brexit on October 31. Labour seems to be positioning itself to sheet the blame for the resulting troubles onto the Conservatives. The Conservatives are likewise looking to blame “Europe” and any “traitors” it can find. And no-one seems to have a clear idea of what the UK is actually going to do with its “freedom”.
There is no majority support for No Deal. BoJo is finished, he was never going anywhere, anyway.
Corbyn’s plan is most likely to succeed. He would become not so much a “PM” really, but caretaker PM, with the specific mission to call a General election that, if the Labour party wins, would lead to a new Referendum that will include a Remain option.
Corbyn is the only one who is offering a way forward that is democratic and will ensure the wellbeing of the British People. BoJo is a mad Hard-Brexiteer with Trumpist delusions of grandeur, and an understanding of the complexities of real life equivalent to that of a slug.
“I am currently reading “War with the Newts”, a 1936 novel by Karel Capek. In it he writes,
“England will never bind itself to the continent.””….
In 1936 there was still a British Empire…. in 2019 that’s well and truly gone and England, alone, is becoming a pretty average international player. Its continued relevance only makes sense within the EU…. Oh, and did I mention the strong possibility of the UK falling apart in the case of Hard Brexit? Scotland, N. Ireland and even Wales would be better off as members of the EU than as member of the UK…
“They will survive don’t you worry about THAT!, I was there during the Second world war, they will
come back in due course.”…
But the UK is now at war with itself…. If Hard Brexit wins, the country loses… Difficult to come back from that in today’s international environment, full of hyaenas and jackals ready to jump on you to get a share of your flesh….
Alpo @ #7 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 10:40 pm
I can’t disagree. But it sems like time has run out. I haven’t seen anything that looks like turning this around.
Alpo @ #8 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 10:45 pm
I agree. But has “England” figured this out? So much of the rhetoric still coming out of England is about independence and historic greatness.
BTW, thank you Adrian for your insights and analyses on Brexit. The mess in far away Britain is a welcome distraction from our mess here at home.
Someone else thinks that PM Boris is merely “doing Brexit” to position himself for a general election.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/22/despite-the-tough-love-johnsons-eu-sortie-has-been-a-relative-success
“Brexit or no Brexit, in the end, Northern Ireland would likely still vote to stay in the UK, not that a border poll is likely to take place any time soon.”
***
Polling done in Northern Ireland shows that the outcome of Brexit is the deciding factor in how they would vote. If the UK were to remain in the EU, it’s unlikely that there would be a border poll or that independence/reunification would have majority support. However, if Brexit happens, especially if it’s a “no-deal” Brexit, the situation changes dramatically and polling shows that the Northern Irish would vote to leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland. Many are already demanding that the vote be held regardless of the outcome of Brexit.
As for the Republic of Ireland – of which I am a citizen – there is overwhelming support for reunification with Northern Ireland, regardless of what happens with Brexit.
If Brexit happens, especially if it’s a no-deal, then it will only be a matter of time before the people of Scotland and Northern Ireland demand their independence.
Polling I was referring to above: https://www.politico.eu/article/election-two-thirds-of-irish-would-vote-for-united-ireland/
The Queen would be likely to accept Parliament’s advice and give royal assent, as a government that advised to refuse assent would be an admission it had lost confidence.
No, completely wrong. The Queen acts on the advice of her Ministers. Refusing to follow the advice of her Ministers on whether to assent to a Bill or not, would be as grave a constitutional transgression as the Queen could make, and she isn’t going to make it.
She doesn’t have to infer a loss of consent in the government from votes that express no opinion on the Commons’ confidence in the government. The Commons tells her directly by passing a vote of no confidence.
If the Commons doesn’t want the Queen to follow the PM’s advice to refuse consent to a Bill, they need to advise the Queen to get a new PM, by expressing their lack of confidence in the current one.
The Queen will play it strictly by the book. And the book says follow the advice of your Ministers. When the Ministers change, then you follow their advice.
Late Riser, I think a Brexit extension would be granted if there were going to be an election to allow any new govt after the election to propose alternatives.
Lee Moore, Anne Twomey is a constitutional law expert. She argues that advising the Queen to refuse royal assent amounts to a loss of confidence.
Adrian Beaumont @ #16 Friday, August 23rd, 2019 – 1:47 pm
Hmm. That might fit with Johnson’s current rhetoric. Is that what Johnson, Merkel and Macron really talked about this week? You’ve got me thinking. How would it work? Would Johnson call an election and then go to the EU and ask for another extension? (It would seem a gamble Johnson doesn’t need to make.) Or does he go to the EU first and get provisional agreement for an extension with the promise of holding a general election? (Would they trust his commitment?) I think Merkel & Macron would have to work hard to convince their voters that putting up with a disruptive UK in the EU is worth it with no guarantee of a less disruptive Brexit. Although one scenario where I could see the proposition working is if it looks like the DUP are losing support.
Either way a timetable for the scenario would include time for a general election, plus time enough to reestablish government post election, plus time to figure out Brexit alternatives, plus time for the EU27 to consider those alternatives, plus time to act on them if they are accepted. At each stage there are unknowns and the possibility of failure. Would this mean another 12 months of Brexit? Or could this even wind the clock back to 2017 and another 24 months of Brexit?
For me it’s too much like a soap opera.
Firefox
The latest Northern Ireland poll on reunification that I have seen was an Ipsos-Mori poll, conducted in March for the Irish Times, which had remaining in the UK in the lead 45-32. It’s worth remembering that no deal was very much in the news in March. In the end, any vote in Northern Ireland on this matter will be decided by people who I classify as soft unionists. These are people who aren’t really passionate on this either way, but who lean to the status quo. They are nervous about hard Brexit, understandably. But if it came to a vote, they’ll behave exactly as people who aren’t passionate either way behave at elections, that is, they’ll vote according to how they feel the result will impact them individually. Unionists will target these people with campaigns such as, do you want to lose your NHS? Then watch them return to the status quo!
In any case, I am actually more confident than most here that a no confidence motion will in fact pass, and that the EU will grant the UK an extension to allow for a General Election. As for what happens from there, that’s really anyone’s guess.
I can see no scenario where Borris Johnson asks for an extension. He is boxed in. If he asks for an extension, the Brexit Party will have a field day, saying you can’t trust the Conservatives, you thought you could trust Borris but apparently you can’t. I see only one way of avoiding no deal, and that is through a successful no confidence motion.
Matt31 @ #19 Friday, August 23rd, 2019 – 4:02 pm
OK, but in the ~70 days left before Brexit, is there a path that removes Johnson and successfully (credibly) asks for another extension? (Even if, as you imply, Johnson himself is not relevant that still leaves the process.) I’ll stick with my prediction for now: Brexit, no deal.
There seems to be some speculation that Borris Johnson will call an election for October 17. Jeremy Corbyn has indicated that he may support this. This of course is two weeks prior to the current Brexit deadline.
Simply moronic rhetoric.
Government to ask Queen to suspend Parliament
Blocking Brexit on October 31 by legislation now off the table. Only option left is a vote of no confidence. Can’t see the Block Brexit factions being able to agree on a new government if they do vote no confidence in Johnson so then it’s off to a new election which Johnson can, legitimately, frame as a “parliament vs people” election. And he will be able to time that election to happen after October 31.
A definition of Boris Johnson’s democracy
Laws are passed by a democratically elected group of representatives – except when a non-elected leader exercises the right to close down parliament to prevent any chance of debates or decisions that may not suit his/her agenda.
With Borris Jonson’s move last night, it seems the only option now for preventing no deal is a motion of no confidence and a temporary unity government to ask for an extension. Surely now parliament does not have the time available for any of the other options that have been considered. We will know soon enough, with parliament due to sit next week.
it seems the only option now for preventing no deal is a motion of no confidence and a temporary unity government to ask for an extension
Why do you imagine Johnson arranged for Parliament to be prorogued wef 11 September rather than wef 4 September, the day after Parliament returns ?
IMHO it’s because he thinks a motion of no confidence is in his interests. IMHO it’s about 50-50 whether he wins or loses. (You’d need about six or seven Tory rebels (or double that as abstainers) as there are independents who’d probably abstain. Those rebels would be ending their careers, so you need people who are retiring anyway, or who are willing to lay down their political careers, and in each case they’d be saying goodbye to their chances of a peerage . Surprisingly the Tory Party attracts rather few of this sort of person 🙂 But maybe half a dozen ?)
(a) If he wins then he’s the boss.
(b) If he loses then the House of Commons needs to settle on a replacement, which is considerably less than 50-50 :
(i) if there’s no replacement, Johnson gets to call an election on, oh say, 31 October, by which time Brexit is baked in, and he has a good chance – better than 50-50 – of winning
(ii) if there is a replacement, how long is that government going to last ? And Corbyn will have burned about 100 seats in the North and Midlands
And in either (b)(i) or (b)(ii) Johnson gets to expunge the Tory Remainer rebels from his candidates list.
Johnson is a gambler. This is a gamble to increase his chances of getting what he wants – Brexit and a parliamentary majority to see him through to 2025, past any Brexit ripples and any recession, which is long overdue. He could certainly lose his bet, but unlike the woeful Mrs May, he’s not going to die wondering.
IMHO (is the room for another HO) any Brexit Deal is now off the table. The options left are No-Deal or No-Brexit. There isn’t time for anything else.
Lee Moore, I agree, Johnson is a gambler. And he’s showing ‘the gambler’ to the EU27. The (so far) muted response from the mainland is what you’d expect at a high stakes poker table. (BTW, I’m crap at poker.) I expect the EU27 will call his bluff. “Sigh.” Pause for effect. “Too bad. Now eff off.”
My prediction stands: No-Deal Brexit.
I expect the EU27 will call his bluff. “Sigh.” Pause for effect. “Too bad. Now eff off.”
I agree that’s likelier than a revised deal. Maybe 80-20.
But it’s not really a “bluff” by Boris. I think he’d much prefer no deal to a deal. A deal solves his short term problems, but worsens his medium term ones considerably. The political downside to a deal for him is that (a) he’d have to give the EU something, which would expose his flank to Farage and (b) there would be no early election. Since a recession is very likely in the next three years (regardless of Brexit) because there hasn’t been one for a decade, I’m sure Boris would prefer an election now (ie 31 October) to one in a year or two. And aside from that, Corbyn might be gone in a year or two, which would immediately add 5% to the Labour vote.
The “bluff” if there is one, is that he wants a deal. This is to make himself look reasonable to the soggy middle. Solid Remainers are not persuadable, but there are millions of “Whatever”ers or “For-God’s-Sake-Just-Make-It-Stop” ers or “Let’s-Split-The-Difference” ers, who ARE persuadable. No point getting up their nose gratuitously. He wants to be able to go into the election saying “Well, I tried, but they told me to go forth and multiply. So I did.”
There has been a surprising strong reaction against the proroguing Parliament.
Maybe he succeeds with hard-brexit, but perhaps is isnt seeing the bigger picture, all this turmoil and games to satisfy the (at one time) 51% is going to cost them in time.
Are Jeremy Corbyn personal ratings on the improve, surely he is starting to look like a better option than Johnston.