Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The second federal poll since the election finds the Coalition back where it started after an apparent post-election bounce in the previous poll three weeks ago.

Newspoll’s first result in three weeks, and second since the election, turns up a surprise in recording a shrinking in the Coalition’s lead from 53-47 to 51-49 – which, if meaningful, would mean an end to the honeymoon period and a return to where things stood at election time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 42%, down two points on the last poll and up 0.6% on the election result; Labor is on 34%, up one point and 0.7%; the Greens are on 11%, steady and up 0.6%; and One Nation are on 4%, up one point and 0.9%.

Leadership ratings are likewise consistent with the fading of a post-election sugar hit, with Scott Morrison down three on approval to 48% and up six on disapproval to 42%. Anthony Albanese’s ratings also seem to be trending from mediocre to respectable, with his approval up two to 41% and disapproval down to 34%, leaving him shading Morrison by a point on net approval. However, this hasn’t translated to preferred prime minister for some reason, on which Morrison holds a healthy lead of 48-30, out from 48-31 last time.

The poll was conducted by online and automated phone surveying from a sample of 1623, from Thursday to Sunday. Full report from The Australian here. As before, we remain in the dark as to how the pollster’s methods have been adjusted since the election failure, if at all. However, the size of the movements, and the lack of anything obvious to explain them, suggests the poll has not been subjected to the smoothing method that Newspoll must have been using before the election to give it its uncanny and, as it turned out, misleading consistency.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. People are so disrespectful these days.

    Stray Mutts
    @StrayMutts

    Imagine sitting in the pub and a stranger walks up to you.

    He says, “I rape children but you can’t tell anyone.”

    And you reply, “I promise. Your secret’s safe with me.”

    You don’t need to imagine it happening.

    Because that’s exactly how it works in the confession booth.

  3. ajm @ #149 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:53 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #145 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:41 pm

    While polling continue to show a close race I think Albanese is safe.

    If the Labors polling falls away through leaking and general skullduggery I think either Fitzgibbon or Shorten will challenge for the leadership.

    I’ve no doubt Fitzgibbon believes his time is now.

    Fitzgibbon is a joke. Labor needs to deselect him and choose a more modern candidate. I think the Labor vote in that electorate would increase. It will be a bit like a re-run of what happened when Danby departed the scene after being kept there for ages because people were scared of the effect of getting rid of such a strong supporter of Israel. I think voters pick up on politicians who just adopt a policy position purely to cement their place – eventually it tells against them and their party.

    I think Fitzgibbon typifies what Labor is about these days and I don’t see him going anywhere.

    Perhaps Labor partisans who don’t like what he stands for need to re-assess their support of the party… ?

  4. C@t

    It would be wise when accusing someone else of port arithmetic to get your own algorisms correct.

    The 65% of 15 year old students who left school in Yr 10 in 1981 were born in 1966. People born in 1966 turn 53 this year.

    Your reference to Whitlam is irrelevant to what Quiggin said. Grasping at Whitlam’s reforms to prove your antagonism to Quiggin’s age figures is a total non sequitur. Despite Whitlam’s great reforms, the retention rate (which is a totally different matter to free tertiary access) was still only 35% 10 years later.

    That’s why Quiggin’s reference to 60 year olds is spot on.

  6. Psyclaw,
    Not great at nuance either.
    The point of including Whitlam’s tertiary education reforms was to make the point that they provided the raison d’etre and foundation for increasing the retention rate of high school students to Year 12. That is, if a child stayed at school they could then be eligible to go to Uni. Whereas, if they continued to leave high school early then they didn’t have that pathway open to them. To the extent that, if Whitlam hadn’t instituted his tertiary education policy, then there would have not been much point for Hawke and Keating to work towards increasing the Year 12 retention rate.

  8. What a r said.

    A friend of mine can foresee the future based on Turkish coffee readings. I’m skeptical, but I trust her more than I do Newspoll.

  9. Rex Douglas @ #153 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 1:04 pm

    ajm @ #149 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:53 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #145 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:41 pm

    While polling continue to show a close race I think Albanese is safe.

    If the Labors polling falls away through leaking and general skullduggery I think either Fitzgibbon or Shorten will challenge for the leadership.

    I’ve no doubt Fitzgibbon believes his time is now.

    Fitzgibbon is a joke. Labor needs to deselect him and choose a more modern candidate. I think the Labor vote in that electorate would increase. It will be a bit like a re-run of what happened when Danby departed the scene after being kept there for ages because people were scared of the effect of getting rid of such a strong supporter of Israel. I think voters pick up on politicians who just adopt a policy position purely to cement their place – eventually it tells against them and their party.

    I think Fitzgibbon typifies what Labor is about these days and I don’t see him going anywhere.

    Perhaps Labor partisans who don’t like what he stands for need to re-assess their support of the party… ?

    What utter rubbish

  10. Kakuru @ #158 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 1:36 pm

    What a r said.

    A friend of mine can foresee the future based on Turkish coffee readings. I’m skeptical, but I trust her more than I do Newspoll.

    Yup. Newspoll still haven’t explained their post election methodology in a transparent way. How are they reaching the voters who steadfastly remain politically disengaged? How about people who won’t answer their phone unless they know who it is?

    Lots of questions. No answers.

  11. ajm @ #159 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 1:39 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #153 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 1:04 pm

    ajm @ #149 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:53 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #145 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:41 pm

    While polling continue to show a close race I think Albanese is safe.

    If the Labors polling falls away through leaking and general skullduggery I think either Fitzgibbon or Shorten will challenge for the leadership.

    I’ve no doubt Fitzgibbon believes his time is now.

    Fitzgibbon is a joke. Labor needs to deselect him and choose a more modern candidate. I think the Labor vote in that electorate would increase. It will be a bit like a re-run of what happened when Danby departed the scene after being kept there for ages because people were scared of the effect of getting rid of such a strong supporter of Israel. I think voters pick up on politicians who just adopt a policy position purely to cement their place – eventually it tells against them and their party.

    I think Fitzgibbon typifies what Labor is about these days and I don’t see him going anywhere.

    Perhaps Labor partisans who don’t like what he stands for need to re-assess their support of the party… ?

    What utter rubbish

    It’s Rex Douglas. Simplistic nonsense is his specialty.

  12. C@tmomma @ #161 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 1:40 pm

    ajm @ #159 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 1:39 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #153 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 1:04 pm

    ajm @ #149 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:53 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #145 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:41 pm

    While polling continue to show a close race I think Albanese is safe.

    If the Labors polling falls away through leaking and general skullduggery I think either Fitzgibbon or Shorten will challenge for the leadership.

    I’ve no doubt Fitzgibbon believes his time is now.

    Fitzgibbon is a joke. Labor needs to deselect him and choose a more modern candidate. I think the Labor vote in that electorate would increase. It will be a bit like a re-run of what happened when Danby departed the scene after being kept there for ages because people were scared of the effect of getting rid of such a strong supporter of Israel. I think voters pick up on politicians who just adopt a policy position purely to cement their place – eventually it tells against them and their party.

    I think Fitzgibbon typifies what Labor is about these days and I don’t see him going anywhere.

    Perhaps Labor partisans who don’t like what he stands for need to re-assess their support of the party… ?

    What utter rubbish

    It’s Rex Douglas. Simplistic nonsense is his specialty.

    And in any case: https://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/1333_age5.pdf

  13. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, August 19, 2019 at 1:04 pm
    …
    Perhaps Labor partisans who don’t like what he stands for need to re-assess their support of the party… ?

    I know you won’t find many in the Greens or the Liberals, but some of us can walk and chew gum at the same time. Some of us recognize the world is shades of gray, some of us belong to organization that don’t determine policy behind close doors, so the grappling with real policy looking for real outcomes is there for all to see.

    Personally I am fed up with people that can only see things in black and white. Even less tolerant of people that see the only possible policy as one that is different to Labors. Even less tolerant of organizations that make a lot of noise but contribute nothing to outcome positive or negative. And when you combine the three you get the Greens, a useless, intolerant party if ever there was.

  14. If Newspoll doesn’t publish the how it as useless as my dart board. 52 to to labor. I threw the dart with my right hand.

  15. Hi ajm,

    How do you factor in the presence in Queensland of a number of fairly “young” supercritical coal generators? Do you thin there will be resistance to closing those early? Genuine question.

    Yeah, it’s a good question! I’m not sure I have a great answer for you, but…

    I believe that the QLD strategy is to rely on a new interconnection to NSW to keep the newish supercritical coal plants running and feeding NSW demand, partially offsetting the shutdown of old coal assets in NSW, while balancing renewable energy with the state from solar and wind with some very large pumped hydro storage sites. That includes the recently refurbished Wivanhoe-Somerset PHES. There’s also a need for a new transmission link north of SEQ to support more renewable developments and reduce costs to industry up north.

    This is from informal conversations; I haven’t seen any of it in a formal document anywhere, yet. There’s an election coming, after all.

  17. Clearly we have the ALP ahead 2PP 56-44 as I have always stated. With an ALP primary at around 42.

    Not allowing for Russian involvement in the political and vote counting processes.

  18. Plus, the whole system, and NSW emissions intensity in particular, will benefit from new interconnections from NSW to SA and QLD.

    Dandy, does electricity from NSW generators cost SA consumers significantly more (when they use it through the inter connector) than it costs NSW consumers? If so, why?

  19. If this is all true (and it seems to be what many people believe), then Labor needs to take a deep breath, re-assess their position and state it clearly. No time for subtlety.

    Prof. Peter Doherty @ProfPCDoherty
    1h
    I wonder if the ALP has taken the trouble to do any serious polling on their new “coal-hugger” policy? My guess is that will not play well in many electorates where they have had strong support.

    ***
    Sue-Ellen Smith @Sue0606
    · 1h
    Replying to @ProfPCDoherty
    Rather than transitioning to a fossil free future both LNP & Labor are supporting it’s expansion via new coal mines & fracking. They say the world has to act 1st, but if & when the world does we will be very exposed to stranded assets. We will crash & burn in more than one way.

  20. Based on Newspolls stellar record in opinion polling for the last Federal election, it is pretty safe to say that the LNP will hold this and higher leads, until a short, sharp, nasty election campaign in two or so years hence, in which Labor, using a smear/fear tactics will have a surprise win. During this campaign, there will be leadership debates that Morrison (or any other backstabber in the LNP waiting to take his place) will win. All other opinion polls, of course, will reflect the unassailable position of the LNP as ……….Newspoll never gets it wrong…………………..

  21. Coal does not have an economic future in Australia
    https://theconversation.com/coal-does-not-have-an-economic-future-in-australia-102718

    “Coal plants will be less and less profitable. They will tend to be shut down earlier, typically when major repairs or overhauls are due. Major refurbishments will tend to become unattractive. And the system does not need coal plants to run reliably. A combination of regionally dispersed renewables, pumped hydro and battery storage, gas plants and demand response will do the job.”

    Seems these researchers are suggesting the mid 2030’s is the end of coal generation, with conservative assumptions. Th economics of still running and maintaining a coaler may be up before then and could only really be kept viable with public support and grid inefficiency.

    These folks are reiterating what the Greens and others are calling for, an organised and planned transition to the inevitable renewable based economy over the next decade or so.

    I’d suggest once renewables and storage are below the cost of current coal, let alone new coal as they already are, the end may rapidly progress. What’s the point, you may as well be burning dollars in the boiler by that stage.

    Renewable are currently providing up to 40%+ of power through the major part of the day regularly, such as today, and pushing daytime wholesale prices to zero or below in various states, at this time.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/electricity-prices-across-the-grid-fall-to-zero-as-renewables-reach-44-share-77635/

  22. SK,

    It depends.

    It always costs a little bit more, because transmission losses go into prices, and more transmission losses means higher prices. But I don’t think this is what you are asking about.

    (BTW, all energy from NSW to SA goes through VIC, but we can ignore that.)

    If SA are importing from NSW, it is because they are not generating enough to balance load locally. There are a lot of reasons why this might be, and all of them would act to raise prices by greater or lesser amounts. Operational stability constraints and strategic bidding by AGL would be the main ones. However the price of gas is hard to get around, and often sets the price in SA.

    So, the price of energy on one side of the interconnection/constraint might be priced at about the NSW coal-fired marginal cost, while the same energy on the other side of the interconnection is priced at the AGL not-quite-provably-gouging price ™.

    Selling energy from a coal-fired plant into a region where gas sets the marginal price, like SA, is a nice little earner.

  23. Selling energy from a coal-fired plant into a region where gas sets the marginal price, like SA, is a nice little earner.

    Thanks. I think I get it. Just need to take off my socialist hat and put on the supremely efficient profit based market system with embedded perverse outcomes hat.

    I am wondering if something equally perverse happens in reverse with SA renewable generated energy.

    It is all so confusing it simply must make perfect sense.

  24. @ajm

    Fitzgibbon represents a very different electorate from what Danby represented. For example; One Nation won 21.59% of the vote in Hunter in the last federal election. That gives you an idea what sort of voters are quite numerous in the division of Hunter.

  25. ajm @ #144 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:40 pm

    ItzaDream @ #113 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 11:24 am

    Narrow and anecdotal, I know, but to add to the schlock horror of why Morrison won –

    Last week I dined with family from the bush – two nieces (Riverina and Warren) and one niece-in-law (Liverpool Plains), and their mother, one of my sisters (a Territorian).

    They talk about the worst drought ever. They talk about financial pressures. Of collecting dead lambs every day. Of shooting dying stock and dealing with carcasses. Every day. They talk about their serious concerns for their mens health, especially mental, and suicide came into the conversation. They have young children. They believe they are politically informed. (They aren’t.) They talk to each other about politics, whatever that means.

    But – they voted for Morrison because they thought he was a “better person” than Shorten. They said that. I didn’t go in hard about it; wrong time, wrong place. You know, I wonder if that if that wretched photo of Morrison ‘at prayer’, which I found offensive, actually resonated. I’m sure that their voting patterns are more complicated and entrenched, but it was interesting, and frankly shocking, to hear that voiced. But it confirms the old saying – people vote how they feel more than how they think. Or don’t think.

    Next time you’re talking to them, ask them if that is because Shorten has been divorced. Despite the massive increase in divorce in Australia in recent decades, I think there is still a significant number of people who regard divorce as a moral failing, even some who have been divorced themselves.

    On top of the “moral failing” factor, there is also the fear by some non economically independent women of divorce taking away their financial security.

    I know this may seem like I’m harking back to the past, and flying in the face of things like the same sex marriage plebiscite, etc, but it doesn’t need to be a majority of the population that feel this way – it’s enough if there is a proportion of them who might be swayed to change their vote if it weren’t for them making this sort of moral judgement.

    I’ve often wondered if the non-traditional nature of Julia Gillard’s personal relationships also activated this sort of factor.

    For the record, I don’t think other people making moral judgements about people’s marriages of their other personal relationships is acceptable or useful – the only people who really know what goes on in a relationship are the people in it. I’m just interested in what force this factor could have voting intentions.

    ajm, I very much doubt divorce was the main issue, but yes, I will revisit it when appropriate. I’m surprised to think it even resonates anywhere, divorce I mean. My suspicion is that it was Morrison’s carefully manicured ‘Christian’ image – churchy, praying, children, all smiling in marital bliss – rather than anything particular about Shorten, other than the equally well crafted negative image of him being shifty and not trustworthy. I wanted to ask them what was ‘good’ about Morrison in their opinion, and lead into my appreciation of what his particular brand of prosperity theology and fundamentalism meant – but it was a crowded noisy restaurant, toward the end of the meal, and completely averse to calm discourse and nuance.

    I tend to agree with you about Julia Gillard – she clearly offended the conservatives (like that hayseed from Gundagai), exaggerated by her very success as a humanitarian and parliamentarian, against all odds.

    Speaking of morality and politicians and image, there’s a terrific review on Angela Woollacott’s book about Don Dunstan in Inside Story.

  26. mikehilliard says:
    Monday, August 19, 2019 at 1:56 pm

    How did younger people vote against resolving some of these issue? They either didn’t understand or worse are expecting the same benefits in their retirement no matter how unsustainable for their children
    ———————————
    Young people generally don’t think that far ahead and it wasn’t how the campaign was framed as it did come off as a cash grab against “rich retirees”. It basically went over most people’s heads, while negative gearing held more importance as home ownership was a bigger issue than franking credits. The ALP basically picked the wrong fight.

  27. lizzie @ #169 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 2:17 pm

    If this is all true (and it seems to be what many people believe), then Labor needs to take a deep breath, re-assess their position and state it clearly. No time for subtlety.

    Prof. Peter Doherty @ProfPCDoherty
    1h
    I wonder if the ALP has taken the trouble to do any serious polling on their new “coal-hugger” policy? My guess is that will not play well in many electorates where they have had strong support.

    ***
    Sue-Ellen Smith @Sue0606
    · 1h
    Replying to @ProfPCDoherty
    Rather than transitioning to a fossil free future both LNP & Labor are supporting it’s expansion via new coal mines & fracking. They say the world has to act 1st, but if & when the world does we will be very exposed to stranded assets. We will crash & burn in more than one way.

    I do wish these twitter dilettantes would get their heads out of each others arses for long enough to actually investigate what Labor’s position IS wrt Coal Mining.

    One example. Labor on the Central Coast of NSW have been waging a 21 year campaign against a new coal mine here. Through the Land and Environment Court and 2 protracted court cases, the last one of which the Labor Councillors on Central Coast Council succeeded in getting the votes to pass funding to run the court case against the miner, KoRes.

    All to no freaking avail because Melissa Price just approved it anyway.

    And you wonder why I get so angry when all the Galahs in the PB pet shop can’t stop squawking, ‘Lib-Lab Same Same!’ 😡

  28. ItzaDream @ #175 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 2:40 pm

    ajm @ #144 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:40 pm

    ItzaDream @ #113 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 11:24 am

    Narrow and anecdotal, I know, but to add to the schlock horror of why Morrison won –

    Last week I dined with family from the bush – two nieces (Riverina and Warren) and one niece-in-law (Liverpool Plains), and their mother, one of my sisters (a Territorian).

    They talk about the worst drought ever. They talk about financial pressures. Of collecting dead lambs every day. Of shooting dying stock and dealing with carcasses. Every day. They talk about their serious concerns for their mens health, especially mental, and suicide came into the conversation. They have young children. They believe they are politically informed. (They aren’t.) They talk to each other about politics, whatever that means.

    But – they voted for Morrison because they thought he was a “better person” than Shorten. They said that. I didn’t go in hard about it; wrong time, wrong place. You know, I wonder if that if that wretched photo of Morrison ‘at prayer’, which I found offensive, actually resonated. I’m sure that their voting patterns are more complicated and entrenched, but it was interesting, and frankly shocking, to hear that voiced. But it confirms the old saying – people vote how they feel more than how they think. Or don’t think.

    Next time you’re talking to them, ask them if that is because Shorten has been divorced. Despite the massive increase in divorce in Australia in recent decades, I think there is still a significant number of people who regard divorce as a moral failing, even some who have been divorced themselves.

    On top of the “moral failing” factor, there is also the fear by some non economically independent women of divorce taking away their financial security.

    I know this may seem like I’m harking back to the past, and flying in the face of things like the same sex marriage plebiscite, etc, but it doesn’t need to be a majority of the population that feel this way – it’s enough if there is a proportion of them who might be swayed to change their vote if it weren’t for them making this sort of moral judgement.

    I’ve often wondered if the non-traditional nature of Julia Gillard’s personal relationships also activated this sort of factor.

    For the record, I don’t think other people making moral judgements about people’s marriages of their other personal relationships is acceptable or useful – the only people who really know what goes on in a relationship are the people in it. I’m just interested in what force this factor could have voting intentions.

    ajm, I very much doubt divorce was the main issue, but yes, I will revisit it when appropriate. I’m surprised to think it even resonates anywhere, divorce I mean. My suspicion is that it was Morrison’s carefully manicured ‘Christian’ image – churchy, praying, children, all smiling in marital bliss – rather than anything particular about Shorten, other than the equally well crafted negative image of him being shifty and not trustworthy. I wanted to ask them what was ‘good’ about Morrison in their opinion, and lead into my appreciation of what his particular brand of prosperity theology and fundamentalism meant – but it was a crowded noisy restaurant, toward the end of the meal, and completely averse to calm discourse and nuance.

    I tend to agree with you about Julia Gillard – she clearly offended the conservatives (like that hayseed from Gundagai), exaggerated by her very success as a humanitarian and parliamentarian, against all odds.

    Speaking of morality and politicians and image, there’s a terrific review on Angela Woollacott’s book about Don Dunstan in Inside Story.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Thanks for your comments. I know my idea sounds a bit outlandish these days but I have come across views like this often enough to think there might well be a “shy moralist” group out there who get missed in the aggregation that inevitably occurs in all types of social measurement.

  29. Fitzgibbon represents a very different electorate from what Danby represented. One Nation won 21.59% of the vote in Hunter in the last federal election.

    Two words.
    Cess nock.

  32. A Novacastrian I knew refused to accept Cessnock was part of Newcastle. He called it Negnock.

    There is a rumour I was conceived in Negnock. Although I wasnt there at the time I strongly dispute it.

  33. C@t

    I become incandescent when the same-same accusation is thrown about too. It’s so lazy.

    However, my point in reproducing those tweets was to draw attention to the narrative that has developed since the election, in which Labor is losing support not because they lost, but because they don’t seem to be coming out strongly enough against LNP actions and policies. Many comments are from peeps I would have been certain voted Labor in the election.

    This, of course, is not helped by the reluctance of the Coalition to attend Parliament and only put up important (sic) legislation that tends to wedge Labor.

    All to no freaking avail because Melissa Price just approved it anyway.

    Another ministerial disaster.

  35. SKatich
    “There is a rumour I was conceived in Negnock. Although I wasnt there at the time I strongly dispute it.”

    Well you MIGHT have been there at the time. But as a zygote, you’d be too young to remember.

  36. Quoll @ #171 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 2:18 pm

    Renewable are currently providing up to 40%+ of power through the major part of the day regularly, such as today, and pushing daytime wholesale prices to zero or below in various states, at this time.

    What rot. Typical RenewEconomy, over egging the pudding.

    Prices occasionally fell to zero (or less) well before renewables came along. This has more to do with our shambolic and utterly broken electricity market than with renewables. And in this case, even with near perfect conditions for sun and wind, and low demand, it lasted all of 5 minutes …

    The zero pricing reflected just one 5 minute dispatch period, so the actual settlement price for that half-hour period (based on the average of the six dispatches) was not zero – it was $6.44 per megawatt hour in Queensland, $7/MWh in NSW, $6/MWh in Victoria, and $5.39/MWh in South Australia.

    We have a long, long way to go before we are anywhere near addressing our dependence on coal.

  38. With more than 6m CCTV cameras in the UK, and 420,000 in London, we are primed to think that facial recognition technology is like CCTV and any concerns are soothed by arguing that “if we have nothing to hide, we nothing to fear” and that it’s worth sacrificing privacy and civil liberties if it helps to catch criminals. This misses the dangers that this technology poses. It does not work as well on people with darker skins, women and children – well over half the population – who are at risk of being misidentified and having to prove their innocence. This violates a core tenet of living in a liberal democracy – that we are innocent until proved guilty.

    Even if it worked to a high degree of accuracy (it will never be 100%), it still transforms us all into possible suspects, whose innocence must be proved by continuously checking us against watchlists. It risks a chilling effect on our rights to assemble and to free speech, because people may not want to exercise these rights if it means they will end up on a watchlist.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/18/facial-recognition-is-now-rampant-implications-for-our-freedom-are-chilling

  39. Tristo @ #174 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 2:38 pm

    @ajm

    Fitzgibbon represents a very different electorate from what Danby represented. For example; One Nation won 21.59% of the vote in Hunter in the last federal election. That gives you an idea what sort of voters are quite numerous in the division of Hunter.

    Slimy politicians evoke the same disrespect from voters of all classes and philosophies. And what makes you think the voters of Melbourne Ports were on average much more sophisticated than the Hunter. I would bet the differences would be in the (fairly small) degrees rather than anything else.

  40. C@tmomma @ #180 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 2:56 pm

    ItzaDream,
    What did you end up doing with the passionfruit? 🙂

    I thought you’d never ask 😉 Are you sitting down? could take a while ….

    Please be kind and understanding.

    I decided to use it, having bought four, for the taste, brightness and sharpness I think lizzie nicely called it, for the blow-ins. But of course they’re out of season, so they were all dry with just a bit of flesh, and the pips (lizzie again, how good is lizzie, really I mean). So to get anything I had to use the pips.

    Then I failed icing 101. Instead of incrementally introducing the orange juice with a dash of p’fruit into a known amount of icing sugar, I did it arse up, and set about introducing icing sugar into the orange juice, a generous amount of orange juice would cover it. After half a bag of icing sugar, health started to raise its ugly head, tedious. Icing was abandoned, as I stared at a bowl of very very sweet orange passion fruit syrup.

    Orange Cake with Ice cream and very very sweet orange passionfruit syrup was eventually served, which everyone politely enjoyed.

  43. Abbott lost 30 consecutive Newspolls; Turnbull, some 40. Yet the Tories won the poll that counts. Labor didn’t modify its more controversial policies on the basis of these pre-election polls – lulled into a false sense of security. And, it wasn’t just Newspoll. All the major pollsters got it wrong, leading to a reasonable conclusion that there was something else at play: Morrison’s slick campaigning, his ability to sell ice to the Eskimos, his daggy-dad routines. Yes, there were other reasons associated with Labor’s loss, not the least being its inability to sell its major policies, its relatively weak campaign, but Morrison settled on a presidential-style campaign, and it paid off. Accordingly, Labor needs to make Morrison its number one target, honing in on his weaknesses, of which there are many, his gunboat diplomacy at the Pacific Islands’ Forum, the first cab off the rank, which although not ranking highly with your average punter, is nevertheless evidence of his poor negotiating skills, his bullishness. As for the polls, I don’t think they should be discarded. They generally go close to getting it right.

  46. Trying to go plastic free. Van Badham

    At the local butcher, I asked if they could wrap the sausages in butcher’s paper instead of plastic. “Nah, we don’t use it,” she responded, as if I’d come in asking for a new wheel for my penny farthing or for a crank to start up my car.

    Dairy was a disastrous prospect. The supermarket sells seven brands of cream; they’re all made locally – and every single one comes in a plastic container. I ordered silicon containers to freeze leftovers in – they arrived padded with plastic bubbles. A tin pot of cream deodorant came wrapped in plastic security stickers. Imaginative schemes for waste minimisation were met with pre-emptive defeat; the attempt to cater a dinner party from a medieval (!) cookbook demanded ingredients that only came plasticised.

    I tried to reenact what I remembered of my nanna’s depression-mindset, zero-waste home … but no victory over plastic ever seemed unpunished. Cardboard-boxed Velvet soap is cheap, cleans everything … and, apparently, contains palm oil. Opening my cupboard doors onto paper sacks of flours and sugar was heartening precisely to the point I discovered that some shitting mice had trashed the lot.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/19/heres-what-i-learned-from-my-privileged-western-failure-to-go-plastic-free-for-a-month?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  47. lizzie,
    I wasn’t having a go at you for highlighting those Tweets, I got where you were coming from with them, I just had a go at them because I have the liberty to do so here with more than 240 characters. 😀

    However, my point still stands-simplistic Tweeters don’t have a clue. They also don’t seem to be able to do logical conclusions. That if Labor did jump up and down repeatedly about Adani and so forth, instead of doing what they are doing and that is relying on State Labor governments, who are actually in power and can do things, to do all that they can to stymie Coal Mining, then, at this point in the electoral cycle, with the Coalition ready to pounce on any aberration from federal Labor, then that is enough. Along with statements such as Penny Wong made yesterday on Insiders-nuanced and not falling for Karvelas’ gotchas.

    Honestly, you’d think intelligent people like Peter Doherty would get that.

  48. Itza Dream @11:24
    “But – they voted for Morrison because they thought he was a “better person” than Shorten. “

    Shorten doesn’t come across that well. He’s no Bob Hawke or even a Kevin07. But we already knew that. Lots of people are also wary of his union background, especially in regional areas.

    But I think that a major factor was a 6 year campaign to denigrate Bill Shorten on the part of the Government, including a Royal Commission targeting him. The campaign was largely prosecuted in the pages of the Newscorp crapsheets. Social media would also have played a role. I am not on Facebook but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an army of trolls tasked with attacking Bill Shorten, like Nath here, alleging (almost certainly falsely) that some deal Bill brokered in 2005 dudded workers, and/or that Bill was a careerist after power (so bloody what? They all are).

  49. Mavis, there were many reasons the ALP lost. No doubt Morrison had an effect. The phenomenal amount of money ploughed into anti ALP ads by UAP in the last week (adding to existing LNP attack adds) was another significant reason.

    As was Shortens unfavourability. Comparing 2019 to 2016 isnt straight forward. Perhaps many voted for Shorten in 2016 with the expectation he wouldnt win and voted against him in 2019 worried he would. Shortens popularity problem in part meant he was unable to counter or withstand the negative ads. You can blame Shortens shortcomings for that. You can also blame the consistent widespread bagging he got from day dot – promoted by the LNP and supported by large sections of the media. It seeped in to the electorate.

  50. Steve777 @ #198 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 3:53 pm

    Itza Dream @11:24
    “But – they voted for Morrison because they thought he was a “better person” than Shorten. “

    Shorten doesn’t come across that well. He’s no Bob Hawke or even a Kevin07. But we already knew that. Lots of people are also wary of his union background, especially in regional areas.

    But I think that a major factor was a 6 year campaign to denigrate Bill Shorten on the part of the Government, including a Royal Commission targeting him. The campaign was largely prosecuted in the pages of the Newscorp crapsheets. Social media would also have played a role. I am not on Facebook but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an army of trolls tasked with attacking Bill Shorten, like Nath here, alleging (almost certainly falsely) that some deal Bill brokered in 2005 dudded workers, and/or that Bill was a careerist after power (so bloody what? They all are).

    I 100% agree and especially with the bit about nath being a troll tasked to denigrate Bill Shorten on the pages of PB. He has to be a Liberal because who can afford to go running to a lawyer, or simply contemplates it, when they get an attack of the sads over something someone said about you on a blog!?!

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