Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The second federal poll since the election finds the Coalition back where it started after an apparent post-election bounce in the previous poll three weeks ago.

Newspoll’s first result in three weeks, and second since the election, turns up a surprise in recording a shrinking in the Coalition’s lead from 53-47 to 51-49 – which, if meaningful, would mean an end to the honeymoon period and a return to where things stood at election time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 42%, down two points on the last poll and up 0.6% on the election result; Labor is on 34%, up one point and 0.7%; the Greens are on 11%, steady and up 0.6%; and One Nation are on 4%, up one point and 0.9%.

Leadership ratings are likewise consistent with the fading of a post-election sugar hit, with Scott Morrison down three on approval to 48% and up six on disapproval to 42%. Anthony Albanese’s ratings also seem to be trending from mediocre to respectable, with his approval up two to 41% and disapproval down to 34%, leaving him shading Morrison by a point on net approval. However, this hasn’t translated to preferred prime minister for some reason, on which Morrison holds a healthy lead of 48-30, out from 48-31 last time.

The poll was conducted by online and automated phone surveying from a sample of 1623, from Thursday to Sunday. Full report from The Australian here. As before, we remain in the dark as to how the pollster’s methods have been adjusted since the election failure, if at all. However, the size of the movements, and the lack of anything obvious to explain them, suggests the poll has not been subjected to the smoothing method that Newspoll must have been using before the election to give it its uncanny and, as it turned out, misleading consistency.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. The biggest movement came from a fall in approval of Mr Morrison’s performance, with a six-point rise in the number of people dissatisfied to 42 per cent and a reduction in net satisfaction rating of plus-15 to plus-six points. While his personal numbers are still stronger than before the election, the shift marked a nine-point turnaround in the Prime Minister’s net satisfaction ratings since the last poll conducted from July 25-28.

    This figure could have been changed by raising Newstart. Simple. As. That. The electorate doesn’t care about a bloody Surplus any more!

  2. However, this hasn’t translated to preferred prime minister for some reason, on which Morrison holds a healthy lead of 48-30, out from 48-31 last time.

    I wonder what they would’ve been if Shorten was still LOTO.

  3. Caf

    There is one experimental plant in Sweden for hydrogen driven steel. Long way off.

    Better to focus on killing off energy coal, for which there are plentiful substitutes- and leave metallurgical coal alone.

  4. Hong Kong protests continue. I hate to think how the Chinese govt will respond.

    CNN InternationalVerified account@cnni
    1h1 hour ago
    After tens of thousands of people gathered in Victoria Park on Sunday, central Hong Kong is occupied and closed to traffic once again as thousands march westward through the city’s streets. Live updates: https://cnn.it/31KXh1K

    :large

  5. I just watched “Secrets of Silicon Valley” on ABC.
    “Silicon Valley is transforming the way we think, work and live. Who is in charge, are there any rules, and what does it mean for the future? Journalist Jamie Bartlett meets the young entrepreneurs keen to make their mark.”
    This episode spent time on how very clever analysts (such as those at Cambridge Analytica) use algorithms to analyse the data people voluntarily put up in the Facebook accounts. This is psychometrics, and is what Trump’s team used to win.

    All very worrying. I did wonder if the LNP used anything like this.
    Worth watching on iView.

    https://www.abc.net.au/tv/programs/secrets-of-silicon-valley/#/episode/ZW1363A002S00

  6. Hong Kong protests continue. I hate to think how the Chinese govt will respond.

    They’ll create an international incident if they do. They don’t ‘own’ HK, yet, so they would have to send in troops from China to HK. It’s not the same as sending them into Tiananmen Square. I don’t think even Trump could come up with an excuse to cover them for it.

  7. Forget Newspoll. It’s hopelessly compromised.

    I’ve always though it was dodgy. The election – including exit polls on the day – proved it for me.

    Labor used the Newspoll/Galaxy/ Whatever-it’s-called-this-week organization for its tracking polls, which showed that Labor would win, with no need to alter or even soften its policies.

    Until otherwise demonstrated to me, especially given Newspoll’s political connections, I’m putting this down as the Scam Of The Century. The coup of coups.

    Yes, yes, William will say this is tinfoil hat stuff, but the evidence was clear before the election that herding was taking place. Herding is a corruption of scientific method, a pollution of process. So much for pollster “ethics”. To be blunt, these honest fellows, these scientists (whose reputations were on the line if they interfered with the numbers) lied to us.

    Whose numbers were the polls herding around? I doubt whether it was Essential, or Ipsos, second tier polls at best. They herded around Newspoll, of course, because Newspoll NEVER got it wrong. That’s why Labor used Newspoll: they never get it wrong. Until they did.

    Despite the obvious malfunctioning of Newspoll, despite the mockings and hecklings of it and its polls from many here since May, and with absolutely no evidence of Newspoll’s reliability, and no evidence as to any change in their methodolgy since 2016, people here are analysing its chicken entrails point by percentage point right here and now tonight as if nothing had happened in the meantime.

    Here’s a proposition: “Newspoll is garbage, financed and run by crooks with a right wing political agenda.”

    Prove me wrong, with verifiable facts, not hope, and definitely not with past performance.

  8. Confessions @ #13 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 10:42 pm

    C@t:

    I guess what’s working for those in Hong Kong is that the whole world is watching.

    Exactly. And, as has been proven recently, multinational companies can be bloodless and ruthless and can pull out of China quickly and transfer their production facilities to other low cost countries in the region. Just like advertisiers pulling out of the Alan Jones show because he says the wrong thing. 🙂

  9. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 42%, down two points on the last poll and up 0.6% on the election result; Labor is on 34%, up one point and 0.7%;

    William, as usual, thanks very much for you reporting and analysis of the polls – the latest Newspoll being the one in point.

    I should change my name to Cassandra, but Labor on 34% means Coalition governments, until the Labor primary vote rises.

  10. Despite the obvious malfunctioning of Newspoll, despite the mockings and hecklings of it and its polls from many here since May, and with absolutely no evidence of Newspoll’s reliability, and no evidence as to any change in their methodolgy since 2016, people here are analysing its chicken entrails point by percentage point right here and now tonight as if nothing had happened in the meantime.

    BB loves kicking down at the other people on this blog, doesn’t he?

    Too bad. He’s entitled to his (non) opinion about the Newspoll. Some points he makes are valid, others are not.

    I don’t think that makes the case for making no comments about it at all.

    For myself, I will take the results with a very big grain of salt, but I will also comment on them. I think that gets the balance right.

    Basically, my opinion since the election is that, in a competitive contest, it’s the election campaign that is key to the result and the polls beforehand are secondary.

  11. BB, the lie that was Newspoll in the weeks up to the election effectively meant Labor didn’t see the Morrison campaign was working with people worried about their jobs, the lies on Facebook about Labor taxing retirees were frightening gullible, easily worried old people, and Shorten’s campaign was not quelling those fears.

    I wish it was otherwise.

    And I can see it all happening again in 3 years time, because I have seen no evidence that Labor understands how to turn it around.

    How depressing. Must be time for bed.

  12. From previous thread – @BB, earlier this afternoon:

    “In accusing me of misquoting him Andrew Earlwood has accused me of wanting to limit F1 cars to 60kph, get rid of bowlers altogether, ban guitars (?), and turn cricket into a game played by robots (or was it Barney who reckons I said that last one?).

    I didn’t say any of the above, of course. Andrew and Barney are making it up.

    Andrew also pointed out that Smith only got hit because he played a “poor shot” ( which would have been a comfort to all the tail-enders who have bouncers bowled at them). This seems to be a “blame the victim” argument, to me.

    Fast bowling is fine, and part of cricket. Most fast balls bowled, probably 80-90%, are not bouncers anyway. All I’m suggesting is that this percentage should be increased to 100%, before someone else gets killed trying to please spectators who get their rocks off watching life-and-safety-threatening behaviour in the workplace. Mustn’t upset the fans.

    Alternatively, we could perhaps make it permissable for batsmen to sue for damages bowlers who deliberately hurt them. Let’s see how many bowlers persist in bowling deliberately at batsmens’ heads in order to cause fear of grevious bodily harm. And any that still do bowl bouncers could always use the, “Piss poor shot” explanation as a legal excuse. Let’s try it out in court!

    Why not take this to a wider application? The casual king-hitter in Kings Cross could always say it wasn’t his fault the victim tripped and hit his head after being coward-punched. Or the mass murderer with an ARM-15 could argue that his victims “ducked poorly”.

    Can anyone explain why bouncers are bowled (apart from being used as a physical threat, that is).”

    _________________________________

    Greeting from Albury, where I’ve just checking into my hotel after Being flight delayed by a couple of hours.

    I’m not sure how I’ve actually accused you of misquoting me, but you seem to have missed my point altogether: confusing my passing ridicule for main Argument. Once again, I repeat: Smith bears some responsibility for refusing the neck guard and the remedy is to make it compulsory. Moreover, the device can probably be improved, as can helmet design more generally: see below for my ruminations on that particular topic.

    I did not, repeat, not say that Smith only got hit because he played a “poor shot”. I think you are confusing me with Barnie. He got hit because even the best there is can make a mistake. Especially against genuine express bowling on a two pace pitch.

    Bouncers are bowled to unsettle the rhythm and confidence of batsmen. Even with appropriate and effective protective equipment it is counter intuitive to stay in line and keep your eye on the rising ball. It takes skill and courage to do that, and a good array of bouncers, Yorkers, balls short of a length, those fuller, seamers and swinging balls, variations in pace are all important weapons in a bowlers Arsenal in what has rapidly become a batsman’s game in the last few decades.

    Moreover there is a world of difference between a blow from a cricket ball that may smart, even leave a bruise, and one that causes grevious harm or even death. The former is part and parcel of the game: the risks of the later can be dramatically reduced by protective equipment (and its not just the bouncer that is potentially dangerous. Sweeping, massive cracks in the pitch and most dangerous of all – in close fielding – all pose really risks).

    Turning to the protective gear issue. Smith doesn’t like the feel on the neck guard. Probably because it comes straight down at the back of the helmet behind the ear guards, and would rub against the neck, depending on the angle. Michael Clarke had the same response, but when he saw Rogers get hit on the neck wearing one he immediately started wearing it. Rogers reckons that the guard saved him from potential serious injury.

    That said, I reckon that cricket helmet design is antiquated and is sorely in need of an overhaul. A typical helmet weights around 800grams. Most of that weight is in the thick outer layer – which does nothing to absorb the shock of being hit with a cricket ball, but do make the helmet more durable (which is actually a false safety outcome, as all helmets should be immediately thrown out is they get any significant blow). Cricket helmets should be redesigned to have more shock absorbing form and only the very thinnest outer hard layer. This would be much safer and also would cut the overall weight (even with the metal face grill and ear guards) in half. Also better ventilation could be built in.

    Moreover, the neck guard could be improved. Instead of a small clip on device that hangs vertically behind the ear guard I reckon an integrated one piece foam helmet with a rear angled flange that runs behind the head between ear guards would be more comfortable and safer. The helmet would probably end up resembling a Roman Legionary helmet from the 1st to 3rd century.”

  13. AE
    My daughter told me the ACB have issued a statement that neck guards will be mandatory 12 months.
    I think it’s pretty simple; you can’t bowl at someone’s head. What other sport encourages you to hit someone in the head other than boxing type sports. Try throwing a baseball at someones face.
    Cricket has learnt nothing from Phil Hughes’ death and actually didn’t care.

  14. God knows how many times I’ve heard it asserted that Rupert Murdoch rigs Newspoll to exaggerate support for the Coalition. I genuinely think it’s the first time I’ve ever heard someone say the opposite, even though it would probably make more sense.

  15. The polls do what the polls do!
    Morrison is the rooster in name only. Uninspiring, evasive and in denial.
    The Cabinet have all the transparency of a secret police, the staffers and public service sworn to secrecy, often job threatened and cowered.
    The MSM are more interested in their next generously rewarded job and the marriage of journalism and reporting a sham relationship.
    Albanese content to remain allied to a compromised government, giving the term opppsition an invisibility, with Labor on trajectory to become a permanent minor force in a new ‘paradigm’ (again).
    The corporations, immuned to regulation and honesty continue to troll the seas of slack corporate and fiscal propriety, a mordern upper class of privilege, not required to answer to an elected government and dismissive of the law.
    A mass of ‘working class’ stumble along, juggling their aspiratinal dreams, fed their daily dose of information from all forms of media, content till the sums fail to support their pathways.
    Healthcare for the rich, insurance a scam and the pursuit of a surplus.
    The famous inland river system, now a dry inland river system, listed as an historical fact together with the reef.
    The polls pop their head above thd parapet. Most Australians hesitate to name thd PM and a few of us dare to warn of the so very close precipice forming a shadow below our journey.
    I hope everyone’s good fortune continues and government itself doesn’t become the catalyst for a badly bloodied national nose.

  16. Diogenes says:
    Monday, August 19, 2019 at 12:04 am

    AE
    My daughter told me the ACB have issued a statement that neck guards will be mandatory 12 months.
    I think it’s pretty simple; you can’t bowl at someone’s head. What other sport encourages you to hit someone in the head other than boxing type sports. Try throwing a baseball at someones face.
    Cricket has learnt nothing from Phil Hughes’ death and actually didn’t care.

    In what way does cricket encourage a bowler to hit someone in the head?

    The laws of cricket encourage the bowling of the ball in such a way that the batsman can reach and play a shot at it.

    The field of play is all around them and they have a variety of shots that they can play to hit the ball to the various parts of the ground.

    I don’t see the baseball analogy as relevant as that game has limited field of play and a ball thrown at the body can only be hit foul. This is recognised by the strike zone, an area that allows the batter to hit the ball fair.

    The ball that hit Smith was not aimed at him, the line was around off stump. If Smith had not move across into its line it would have passed harmlessly through to the keeper.

    Smith made a mistake, he played that ball poorly.

    I agree with AE that protective equipment and how adequate it is, is the issue that needs to be dealt with here.

  17. Goll @ #26 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 3:48 am

    The polls do what the polls do!
    Morrison is the rooster in name only. Uninspiring, evasive and in denial.
    The Cabinet have all the transparency of a secret police, the staffers and public service sworn to secrecy, often job threatened and cowered.
    The MSM are more interested in their next generously rewarded job and the marriage of journalism and reporting a sham relationship.
    Albanese content to remain allied to a compromised government, giving the term opppsition an invisibility, with Labor on trajectory to become a permanent minor force in a new ‘paradigm’ (again).
    The corporations, immuned to regulation and honesty continue to troll the seas of slack corporate and fiscal propriety, a mordern upper class of privilege, not required to answer to an elected government and dismissive of the law.
    A mass of ‘working class’ stumble along, juggling their aspiratinal dreams, fed their daily dose of information from all forms of media, content till the sums fail to support their pathways.
    Healthcare for the rich, insurance a scam and the pursuit of a surplus.
    The famous inland river system, now a dry inland river system, listed as an historical fact together with the reef.
    The polls pop their head above thd parapet. Most Australians hesitate to name thd PM and a few of us dare to warn of the so very close precipice forming a shadow below our journey.
    I hope everyone’s good fortune continues and government itself doesn’t become the catalyst for a badly bloodied national nose.

    Agreed. Excellent and accurate rant, Goll.

    I’m no longer confident that ripping the bandaid off the festering sores of the Anglophone GRASPer project (The Dead Parrot’s Society, Scummo of the South Pacific etc.) will shift the dial much. The economics of what was once called a recession will (plus the inevitable crash and burn of Trump in Nov 2020 and Bloody Boris even sooner) will leave the fawning courtiers of the rich (Albo included – he’s a burner) unable to maintain the illusion of adequacy to cover the smug bastardry of the 30% that decides our elections.

  18. The new frontier in political campaigning is social media, Facebook in particular.

    Trump used it with devastating effect in 2016. He is using it again in his 2020 campaign (it was reported in May that he spent $4.6M on Facebook ads in 5 months since December last year), while Democratic candidates are still fighting amongst themselves.

    Trump benefited from his focus on Facebook marketing in 2016, which helped him reach a different audience from that of traditional TV advertising. His campaign would test tens of thousands of different ad variations — with or without subtitles, pictures or videos, etc. — to find out which were the most engaging, Gary Coby, director of advertising at the Republican National Committee, told Wired in 2016. Coby, who had also worked on Trump’s campaign, said Facebook was a testing ground for them to figure out people’s likes and dislikes.

    https://www.vox.com/2019/5/21/18634085/trumps-2020-campaign-is-buying-a-whole-lot-of-facebook-ads

    Last night’s ABC program “Secrets of Silicon Valley” contained revealing interviews, one with an executive of Cambridge Analytica who explained what they did using psychometrics. This is powerful stuff, and Trump used it to win.
    https://www.abc.net.au/tv/programs/secrets-of-silicon-valley/#/episode/ZW1363A002S00

    Labor can win the next election, but only if they recognise the change in the landscape.
    Facebook and high-level mathematical analysis are the tools they need to use.
    Trump proved it in 2016, and will probably do so again in 2020.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Patrick Hatch reports that the boss of health insurer nib says high out-of-pocket hospital costs are a leading reason people cancel their health cover and represents a “market failing” that needs to be fixed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/hospital-bill-shock-a-symptom-of-market-failing-nib-boss-20190813-p52gpu.html
    ASIC is planning to put up to 50 matters into the courts in the coming months, many of them arising from the banking royal commission, deputy chairman Daniel Crennan, QC, says in the AFR.
    https://outline.com/BqX5fD
    Greg Jericho gets really stuck into the science deniers and their boosters in the conservative media.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/aug/18/accepting-anecdotes-more-readily-than-climate-science-is-wilful-ignorance
    Sean Kelly criticises some of Morrison’s recent weak pronouncements.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/harmless-political-rhetoric-is-really-destructive-20190818-p52i91.html
    Sydney councils want more help to rectify dangerous flammable cladding, amid warnings the cost of fixing the national building crisis could pass $6.2 billion.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/australia-s-building-crisis-fix-will-cost-6-2-billion-report-20190730-p52c9x.html
    Here’s Peter FitzSimons’ weekly column.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-cruel-and-shallow-money-trench-that-is-tv-claimed-another-victim-20190816-p52hxl.html
    Eryk Bagshaw tells us that Morrison will undertake a major overhaul of the public sector, putting 280,000 public servants on notice, while warning his ministers to do their job and not allow “a policy leadership vacuum to be created”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-sends-warning-to-under-performing-ministers-20190818-p52ibk.html
    Ahead of Morrison’s major address to the public service this morning, Labor has called for any reforms to the bureaucracy to have proper funding.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6332574/gallagher-fund-public-service-reforms-dont-shift-blame/?cs=14350
    Here’s an excellent contribution from NSW Nationals MP Leslie Williams who says the abortion debate has been hijacked by irrelevancies.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/abortion-debate-hijacked-by-irrelevancies-let-s-get-back-to-the-real-issues-20190818-p52i8u.html
    Kirsty Needham writes that the huge and peaceful crowd that marched through Hong Kong’s streets in a massive act of civil disobedience has defied Beijing’s scare tactics and shown community support for democracy protesters remains largely unshaken.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/reassembled-and-regenerated-hong-kong-protest-puts-pressure-back-on-china-20190819-p52idu.html
    David Crowe tells us how close a rattled Turnbull came to calling a snap election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-should-just-drive-to-yarralumla-malcolm-turnbull-s-snap-election-proposal-20190818-p52i7t.html
    The SMH editorial is concerned that the latest inquiry into population might end up by going nowhere like its several predecessors.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inquiry-must-not-become-another-missed-opportunity-20190818-p52ibt.html
    Consumers should prepare themselves to pay more for home broadband, as rising consumption forces retailers to buy more bandwidth from NBN, Telstra has warned.
    https://outline.com/ZRPspR
    Clancy Yeates reports that the nation’s anti-money laundering regulator Austrac has warned it is likely to take more action against financial institutions following its landmark case against CBA.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/austrac-flags-tough-action-after-being-flooded-with-money-laundering-breaches-20190816-p52hsi.html
    The government intends to shut down criticism that it has been dragging the chain on the Hayne royal commission writes Phil Coorey.
    https://outline.com/FtbuRs
    According to Shane Wright the US-China trade war could deliver Australian farmers a one-off boost and generate an extra 3900 jobs just in time to offset the cost of drought.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-farmers-could-be-1-billion-winners-from-us-china-trade-war-20190816-p52hwa.html
    Sam Maiden reveals that Scott Morrison has told a closed-door meeting of religious leaders that the government is discussing how to provide greater protection against religious discrimination for workers in cases like that of rugby star Israel Folau.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/08/18/religious-discrimination-laws-morrison-government/
    Another global agency has exposed Australia as bringing up the rear in caring for the disadvantaged. Alan Austin reports from Europe.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/in-supporting-jobless-australia-comes-a-stone-cold-motherless-last/
    Innes Willox has stopped short of citing the real cause of our broken national training system: namely the ideology of extreme neoliberalism ⁠— the unwavering belief that unregulated markets will produce superior results even when the evidence suggests otherwise.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/skills-crisis-tafe-undone-by-rampant-neoliberalism,13012
    Winding back some of the overly generous tax concessions for “comfortably off” older Australians would reduce the budget pressures caused by an ageing population writes the Grattan Institute’s Danielle Wood.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/generational-progress-can-no-longer-be-taken-for-granted-20190816-p52hvf.html
    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will spend $10 million ramming through 40 pieces of banking royal commission legislation in the next year says Eryk Bagshaw.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/unprecedented-bank-probe-to-take-up-75-per-cent-of-treasury-agenda-20190818-p52iat.html
    Paul Karp reports on how the government is being accused of dragging its heels on a phoenixing crackdown.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/18/government-dragging-its-heels-on-phoenixing-crackdown-critics-say
    Picking fruit is work, not benevolence, and doesn’t absolve Australia of climate responsibility writes Victoria Stead.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/18/picking-fruit-is-work-not-benevolence-and-doesnt-absolve-australia-of-climate-responsibility
    Sadness, depression, trauma and suicide can be better dealt with if we look to its social and economic causes, writes Gerry Georgatos.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/reforming-society-the-best-way-to-minimise-suicide,13013
    A former Centrelink robodebt compliance officer, who is totally blind, claims he was routinely shamed and later sacked for working too slowly and not meeting the government’s aggressive debt recovery targets on the “whiteboard of shame”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/19/blind-centrelink-officer-says-he-was-shamed-and-sacked-for-slow-work
    Two politics academics explain how the surge in pre-poll numbers at the 2019 federal election has changed the relationship between voters and parties.
    https://theconversation.com/surge-in-pre-poll-numbers-at-2019-federal-election-changes-the-relationship-between-voters-and-parties-121929
    James Kirchick describes how Trump has so polarised America.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/opponents-on-the-left-pouring-gasoline-on-donald-trump-s-fires-20190818-p52i92.html
    America’s military authority is waning and it is ill-prepared to go to war with China in the Indo-Pacific region, a new report from the United States Studies Centre has warned, arguing Australia must move towards a shared reliance on a network of allies, in particular Asian militaries such as Japan, for its security.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/19/us-defence-strategy-in-indo-pacific-region-faces-unprecedented-crisis
    There is a Democratic candidate for President whose anti-war foreign policy positions would make Australia and the world safer. It’s Tulsi Gabbard writes Daniel Safi.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/one-democrat-presidential-candidate-who-would-make-the-world-safer,13014
    Britain will face shortages of fuel, food and medicine if it leaves the European Union without a transition deal, according to leaked official documents reported by the Sunday Times but the interpretation was immediately contested by ministers.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6334694/leaked-document-worst-case-brexit-gove/?cs=14232

    Cartoon Corner – Monday’s are always quiet

    What a ripper from mark David!

    From Glen Le Lievre.


    David Rowe.

    From Johannes Leak (I think).
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8cbadca3c90cf454e1ae268aed0195bb?width=1024

    From the US.



  20. Wired has a good article “HERE’S HOW FACEBOOK ACTUALLY WON TRUMP THE PRESIDENCY”
    It’s 2016 (Yes, I know this is old news, but had Labor used Trump’s methods it may not have been so blind-sided in may this year), but even more relevant now.

    ….according to President-elect Donald Trump’s digital director Brad Parscale, the social media giant was massively influential—not because it was tipping the scales with fake news, but because it helped generate the bulk of the campaign’s $250 million in online fundraising…………….

    …(Parscale said) “Facebook and Twitter were the reason we won this thing,” he says. “Twitter for Mr. Trump. And Facebook for fundraising.”

    ……. about the imbalance between Clinton’s ad spending compared to Trump’s proliferated. They noted how Clinton spent more than $200 million on television ads in the final months of the election while Trump spent less than half that. Because Trump wasn’t spending as much on television all along, it seemed like his team wasn’t investing in changing anyone’s minds. But they were: they were just doing it online.

    https://www.wired.com/2016/11/facebook-won-trump-election-not-just-fake-news/

  21. Morning all

    Thanks BK for today’s offerings.

    I dont know who the author is re Tulsi Gabbard article you linked. But she is the worst possible choice for president. A wolf in sheeps clothing comes to mind. Argghh

  22. William Bowe says:
    Monday, August 19, 2019 at 12:19 am
    God knows how many times I’ve heard it asserted that Rupert Murdoch rigs Newspoll to exaggerate support for the Coalition. I genuinely think it’s the first time I’ve ever heard someone say the opposite, even though it would probably make more sense.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/08/18/newspoll-51-49-coalition/comment-page-1/#comment-3236721

    William, I do doubt that Newspoll was intentionally rigged before the election, because it resulted in reputational damage. (edit: Conspiracy or stuff up? Probably stuff up). But if we look at Clinton’s 2016 US campaign we see the result of people believing she had it in the bag, and failure to recognise and meet the threat that was the Trump campaign.

    We saw this effect again in May 2019. Shorten’s supporters (including me) failed to see the threats from the fear campaigns being waged in Facebook (retiree tax) and by Palmer. We were blinded by the Newspoll telling us all was well.
    Hubristic foolishness reigned.

  23. I am so very impressed with the courage and tenacity of the protestors in Hong Kong. Amazing stuff. I hope they can stay safe. Very concerned in that regard

  24. Despite all the horrible and disgusting conduct by Trump. Ultimately it will come down to the economy. He will lose support due to money. Go figure.

  25. The biggest economic lie was Trump’s declaration that trade wars are quickly and easily won, American consumers and farmers wouldn’t be hurt and we somehow would get richer by making Americans pay more at stores. Actually, they are paying a lot.

    The conservative American Action Forum’s recent study found, “Altogether, the president’s tariffs could increase nationwide consumer costs by nearly $100 billion annually.” Moreover, other countries have not taken the tariffs lying down. “In addition to raising costs for American consumers, tariffs have also resulted in significant retaliation by other countries against U.S. exports. … To date, eight nations have levied retaliatory tariffs of 5 percent to 50 percent on approximately $131 billion of U.S. exports.”

    To cushion the blow to farmers who are losing markets, the Trump administration has now put them on welfare, otherwise known as farm subsidies. Another low point in “conservative” economics.

    Why this is all not front and center in the Democratic candidates’ campaigns is a bit of a mystery.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/18/trump-economic-record-one-big-lie/

    Why indeed. 2020 needs to be a referendum on Trump, so exposing his big economic con job should be front and centre of the campaign.

  26. @Victoria

    I agree, China should focus on its country first before making attempts hostile in HK.

    I know both young and old Chinese the old days you shouldn’t do anything this is because they are affraid of what they will do them.

  27. Why this is all not front and center in the Democratic candidates’ campaigns is a bit of a mystery.

    Whoever wrote this should know that the first Democrat candidate dance is with the Democratic Primary voters. So the candidates have to target them and seek to appeal to them. After that dance is over the chosen candidate pivots and takes up their dance with the electorate as a whole. This is when they can target the woeful job Trump is doing wrt the economy. By about January 2020 things should really have gone pear-shaped. Then they can just hammer it until November 2020. If they start now it will lose its potency when it really needs to count.

  28. Paul Karp reports on how the government is being accused of dragging its heels on a phoenixing crackdown.

    “Government”, “Pheonixing”,”Crackdown” ah yes, so many decades of seeing those words together and always SFA the end result. What a joke. It’s almost like those ‘in charge’ do not actually want to fix the problem.

  29. Maude Lynne,
    Don’t give up hope too easily. Albanese has assembled a pretty formidable team in his office. His new COS, Tim Gartrell, is the sort of person who lives and breathes the fine detail of demographics and targeting. Plus his speech writers and media advisers know how to speak to swinging voters. I imagine they are taking their time at the moment to put the building blocks in place.

    I hope so.

  30. C@t:

    Not so. Democrats have criticised Trump on all manner of things, except it would seem, the economy or his promises to lower cost of living. Mayor Pete has even attacked him for draft dodging, so I don’t see why his economic con job can’t be a target as well.

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