Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The second federal poll since the election finds the Coalition back where it started after an apparent post-election bounce in the previous poll three weeks ago.

Newspoll’s first result in three weeks, and second since the election, turns up a surprise in recording a shrinking in the Coalition’s lead from 53-47 to 51-49 – which, if meaningful, would mean an end to the honeymoon period and a return to where things stood at election time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 42%, down two points on the last poll and up 0.6% on the election result; Labor is on 34%, up one point and 0.7%; the Greens are on 11%, steady and up 0.6%; and One Nation are on 4%, up one point and 0.9%.

Leadership ratings are likewise consistent with the fading of a post-election sugar hit, with Scott Morrison down three on approval to 48% and up six on disapproval to 42%. Anthony Albanese’s ratings also seem to be trending from mediocre to respectable, with his approval up two to 41% and disapproval down to 34%, leaving him shading Morrison by a point on net approval. However, this hasn’t translated to preferred prime minister for some reason, on which Morrison holds a healthy lead of 48-30, out from 48-31 last time.

The poll was conducted by online and automated phone surveying from a sample of 1623, from Thursday to Sunday. Full report from The Australian here. As before, we remain in the dark as to how the pollster’s methods have been adjusted since the election failure, if at all. However, the size of the movements, and the lack of anything obvious to explain them, suggests the poll has not been subjected to the smoothing method that Newspoll must have been using before the election to give it its uncanny and, as it turned out, misleading consistency.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. swamprat @ #93 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:34 am

    “Albanese has assembled a pretty formidable team in his office.”

    ——————————

    It is amusing seeing “formidable team” in the same sentence as an office of the contemporary Labor Party.

    And some people, who have done approximately zilch to help Labor win, will always think that snark is called for. The only conclusion you can draw, therefore, because The Greens aren’t going within cooee of government any time soon, is that these people are happy with continued Coalition governments.

  2. Confessions @ #79 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:00 am

    C@t:

    Thanks for that. I’d argue that the debates don’t really count as nobody watches them.

    But in any case Mayor Pete has given an interview and has raised the fact that the tariffs are hurting farmers, who are wondering how much longer they are going to take one for the team for the man baby.

    https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/08/18/pete-buttigieg-intv-fools-errand-china-change-economic-model-tariffs-sot-sotu-vpx.cnn

    As long as they keep accepting the Agrarian Socialism from Trump. 🙂

    Though I have read that the industrious among them are saying they’d rather be growing their crops.

  3. Now that’s a Mid West Rust Belt combination for the Democrats, that will also appeal to the coastal elites:

    Joe Biden and Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

  4. P1,

    My point is Vietnam’s coal-fired power expansion is happening independent of what occurs to Australian seaborne coal exports. It’s the same the world over.

    Therefore, to have a real effect on coal use, we should focus on developing energy substitutes for these nations that undermine demand for coal. We already do, but we could do a lot more.

  5. With little or no current response from the polling industry about any potential changes to their methodology, any talk about polls and their current showings is almost meaningless. As Labor discovered to its cost, the election was lost somewhere between December of last year and the actual election. The fear campaign, the impact of Palmer and, to a lesser degree ON, and the perversity of the Queensland electorate, meant Labor did not see what was coming. But then, those who supposed have all the maths and stats on their side in the polling game, got it even more wrong…………

  6. C@tmomma @ #99 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:58 am

    Player One @ #96 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:54 am

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #85 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:22 am

    Your ‘straw man’ misrepresentations do your arguments a disservice.

    And your pathetic defence of Australian coal, likewise.

    I’ll proudly stand up for the Coking Coal industry until something better comes along.

    You’re a blinkered unrealistic ideologue if you don’t.

    Thermal coal makes up around 50% of our coal exports. It is indefensible to either export it, or burn it ourselves.

  7. ‘..until something better comes along.’

    My nomination for most stupid statement on the internet comment of the month award, in a crowded field.

    Just imagine for a moment…

  8. swamprat says:

    Monday, August 19, 2019 at 10:34 am
    “Albanese has assembled a pretty formidable team in his office.”

    ——————————

    It is amusing seeing “formidable team” in the same sentence as an office of the contemporary Labor Party.

    Perhaps that version of “formidable” has its etymology in this latin word…..
    formīca (genitive formīcae); first declension an ant

  9. Dandy Murray @ #104 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 11:08 am

    P1,

    My point is Vietnam’s coal-fired power expansion is happening independent of what occurs to Australian seaborne coal exports. It’s the same the world over.

    Therefore, to have a real effect on coal use, we should focus on developing energy substitutes for these nations that undermine demand for coal. We already do, but we could do a lot more.

    It is not independent. If Australia stopped supplying Asia with cheap coal, the cost of burning coal simply to produce electricity would rise. This would in turn make investment in renewables more attractive.

    So we need to do both. Doing just one or the other is not enough.

  10. Of course reducing demand for steaming coal is the only way to finish that part of the power generating industry.
    How to reduce demand is the question.

    In Australia we are already reducing demand by
    a) making networked electricity expansive. Consumers then improve energy efficiency and, if they can, install rooftop solar;
    b) privatising electricity generation, distribution and sales. The generator owners know the costs of maintaining coal-fired generators increases with age, so their hard-nosed decision is to close them (whereas ideologically-driven government owners would keep them going). They also know the cost of building new coal-fired plants is far more than solar PV or wind turbine generation, so they wont build coal-fired plants (unlike ideologically-driven governments).

    You see, it’s finance that makes the decision.

    Since Australia is the world’s No 1 coal exporter (see https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coal-loving-australia-worlds-3rd-180000552.html) then, obviously, if we reduced our export supply, price would go up (some other exporters would increase their exports to take advantage of increased prices).

    Increased coal price will hasten move to renewables, which could be a business opportunity for Australian solar and wind turbine builders.

    Wont happen, of course. Our govt is committed to propping up the (largely foreign owned) coal industry. Supporting the people, local industry or carbon reduction doesn’t get any more than lip-service.

    edit: Snap P1

  11. adrian @ #108 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 11:16 am

    ‘..until something better comes along.’

    My nomination for most stupid statement on the internet comment of the month award, in a crowded field.

    Just imagine for a moment…

    Yeah. An easy snark to make, hard to prove the wild imaginings you are alluding to though, because, if you don’t have Coking Coal, then you end up making steel that makes more of those tall buildings fall to bits. 🙄

    Honestly, some people on this blog live in a snark bubble and not in the real world.

  12. Narrow and anecdotal, I know, but to add to the schlock horror of why Morrison won –

    Last week I dined with family from the bush – two nieces (Riverina and Warren) and one niece-in-law (Liverpool Plains), and their mother, one of my sisters (a Territorian).

    They talk about the worst drought ever. They talk about financial pressures. Of collecting dead lambs every day. Of shooting dying stock and dealing with carcasses. Every day. They talk about their serious concerns for their mens health, especially mental, and suicide came into the conversation. They have young children. They believe they are politically informed. (They aren’t.) They talk to each other about politics, whatever that means.

    But – they voted for Morrison because they thought he was a “better person” than Shorten. They said that. I didn’t go in hard about it; wrong time, wrong place. You know, I wonder if that if that wretched photo of Morrison ‘at prayer’, which I found offensive, actually resonated. I’m sure that their voting patterns are more complicated and entrenched, but it was interesting, and frankly shocking, to hear that voiced. But it confirms the old saying – people vote how they feel more than how they think. Or don’t think.

  13. P1,

    You are ignoring the response of our coal customers to a withdrawal of our coal supply.

    Our energy customers have a demand for coal as a source of energy, to run their economies and societies. In response to a reduction in our coal supplies, they might be able to reduce their use of energy a little, or substitute a little coal for renewables in the short run, but mostly they will get coal from somewhere else.

    Or, worse, they might significantly reduce electricity supply in some areas, which could force local people to substitute much less efficient sources of energy for lighting and heating, like local diesel generators, kerosene lanterns or wood for heating. That’s an outright bad, but it already happens now across the developing world.

    I am in full support of plans to close down coal production in Australia, but not without ensuring alternatives are available to our energy customers. A strategic industry policy would have us play both sides of this market, for our economic benefit, the benefit of our trade partners, and the environment. A hydrogen export development policy will do this. Support for undersea HVDC cables to our northern neighbours will do this. Progressively raising coal royalties will support this on the supply/cost side.

  14. Maude Lynne @ #111 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 11:20 am

    Wont happen, of course. Our govt is committed to propping up the (largely foreign owned) coal industry. Supporting the people, local industry or carbon reduction doesn’t get any more than lip-service.

    Sadly, it is not just the government who are committed to coal. Labor cannot articulate a clear message on this because of their deep internal conflicts of interest. I can understand that, and even sympathize, but the answer is to resolve that conflict, not simply cover it up by propagating the meme that “Australian coal is good for the planet”. This is clearly nonsense, and is not the answer.

  15. Player One @ #106 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 11:11 am

    C@tmomma @ #99 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:58 am

    Player One @ #96 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:54 am

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #85 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:22 am

    Your ‘straw man’ misrepresentations do your arguments a disservice.

    And your pathetic defence of Australian coal, likewise.

    I’ll proudly stand up for the Coking Coal industry until something better comes along.

    You’re a blinkered unrealistic ideologue if you don’t.

    Thermal coal makes up around 50% of our coal exports. It is indefensible to either export it, or burn it ourselves.

    I wasn’t talking about Thermal Coal, as you seem to have not noticed. I specifically spoke about Coking Coal.

    For the record, Thermal Coal needs to die an uneconomic economic death.

  16. C@tmomma @ #112 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 11:22 am

    adrian @ #108 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 11:16 am

    ‘..until something better comes along.’

    My nomination for most stupid statement on the internet comment of the month award, in a crowded field.

    Just imagine for a moment…

    Yeah. An easy snark to make, hard to prove that, if you don’t have Coking Coal, then you end up making steel that makes more of those tall buildings fall to bits. 🙄

    Honestly, some people on this blog live in a snark bubble and not in the real world.

    It’s as easy as ABC to offer cynical criticism rather than promote reasonable discussion.

  17. Dandy Murray @ #114 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 11:28 am

    P1,

    You are ignoring the response of our coal customers to a withdrawal of our coal supply.

    Our energy customers have a demand for coal as a source of energy, to run their economies and societies. In response to a reduction in our coal supplies, they might be able to reduce their use of energy a little, or substitute a little coal for renewables in the short run, but mostly they will get coal from somewhere else.

    Or, worse, they might significantly reduce electricity supply in some areas, which could force local people to substitute much less efficient sources of energy for lighting and heating, like local diesel generators, kerosene lanterns or wood for heating. That’s an outright bad, but it already happens now across the developing world.

    I am in full support of plans to close down coal production in Australia, but not without ensuring alternatives are available to our energy customers. A strategic industry policy would have us play both sides of this market, for our economic benefit, the benefit of our trade partners, and the environment. A hydrogen export development policy will do this. Support for undersea HVDC cables to our northern neighbours will do this. Progressively raising coal royalties will support this on the supply/cost side.

    Self-serving claptrap.

  18. C@tmomma, I suppose I shouldn’t have resorted to snark, but really. There are alternatives already.

    Just imagine if we had the intelligence and foresight to invest the billions that we give to the coal industry, into renewable alternatives instead.

    Instead, we are content to fiddle while the planet burns.

  19. Player One @ #122 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 11:39 am

    It would do Australia good to get booted out of the Pacific Island Forum …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-19/australia-climate-change-inaction-damaging-pacific-relationship/11426390

    For one thing, it might wake up some people here to realize just how poorly Australia is now viewed by the rest of the world 🙁

    Unfortunately, most LNP voters couldn’t give a shit, or would cheer Morrison putting these uppity foreigners in their place.

  20. “If we don’t take the opportunity while everybody is watching to talk about building water storage, dams, pipelines, infrastructure, underground dams, recharging our aquifers, investing in our weirs then we will miss this opportunity,” he said.

    The he of ‘he said’ is John Barilaro, NSW Nationals, Deputy Premier.

    To me, this is end stage. Piping from one storage system to another, waiting for the rains to come. Even bushies concede the long range forecast is 2021/2022.

    In a few weeks, a $13 million pipeline from Armidale’s dam will provide much-needed water to Guyra.

    Last week work began on a $14 million pipeline from Scone to Murrurundi, while earlier this year the $500 million Broken Hill pipeline came online.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-19/john-barilaro-calls-water-infrastructure-revamp-to-beat-drought/11425862

  21. Have to agree with Tristo re Morrison being a political marketing genius…..does not mean Australia is a better place because of it.

  22. This has been the real agenda of the LNP for the last three decades. The destruction of the role of “government” for economic opportunity or equity, social improvement or environmental guardianship. When a Liberal politician says “middle Australia” he/she means the Liberal Party and those whose interests it represents.

    The sad thing is, despite the support of most voters, including Liberal voters, for maintaining public services and public ownership, the so called left (labor/Greens) have been unable to mobilise successful political opposition.

    One has to admit the Liberals have been the most successful political force in modern Australia. We have a country and economy that has in the past 30 years been transformed. Australia overwhelmingly reflects LNP values.

    I have little time for both Labor and Green politicians because on this big and vital question they are political failures. Not only that, a large proportion of them adopt LNP policies when in government.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/19/trust-deficit-morrison-says-middle-australia-has-lost-faith-in-public-sector

  23. Gladys dragged to the right embracing the wonderful visitor attractor mega Star City Casino development after all. Sydney after all is built for visitors, not residents.

    After squealing by the Telecrap and Jones, with Gladys jumping at Perrottet shadows, she orders a review of the decision to reject the tower by the planning dept (Stokes) to be conducted by the Greater Sydney Commission, declaring Pyrmont open for business.

    but …

    The Greater Sydney Commission is supposed to be independent. But the chief executive of the Commission, Sarah Hill, has also been appointed a deputy secretary at the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment.

    This means that the head of the organisation charged with producing new advice was also the deputy head of the organisation that produced the old advice, which triggered the need for the review.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/in-sign-of-support-for-the-star-s-hotel-tower-berejiklian-orders-snap-review-20190819-p52ieq.html

    Jump Gladys, Jump.

  24. Whilst it is true that less supply increases the cost but that cost is higher profitability to coal miners so you need to actually reduce demand.

    We should be focusing on increasing demand for renewable energy so as to increase its profitability, then you will see less coal production.

  25. Posted last night (Steve777) and scary stuff –

    All of this amounts to a neat, if profoundly cynical and undemocratic, trick. While the prorogation of parliament happens at the end of every parliamentary session, dissolution occurs before an election. The difference between prorogation and dissolution is fundamental, not procedural, and the effects of dissolution would be profound for all of us.

    Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, parliament is automatically dissolved 25 days before an election, but it can be done sooner. Such an election lock would close the doors of parliament and legally push the UK over the EU exit date. So, while MPs debate a vote of no confidence and Corbyn attempts to become leader of a government of national unity, Johnson could dramatically pull the rug from underneath their feet.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/18/boris-johnson-brexit-ploy-extreme-rightwing-ideology-gina-miller

  26. Anyway, the only way I can see Labor winning in 2022, is to go for a radical platform which completely repudiates neo-liberalism, along with bringing ecological sustainability for this continent. This would have items such as Modern Monetary Theory, A Green New Deal, reversing laws which prevent unions organizing and striking.

    Tristo speaks a lot of sense. The top priority for Labor is to become economically literate. Everything else flows from that. You can’t change the narrative to favour a progressive agenda unless you first kill the myths about government spending and taxation. We live at a time when people are suspicious of powerful interests and institutions. Labor has little to lose by confronting economic mythology directly, with vigour, and with a strong populist message.

  27. ItzaDream @ #128 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:02 pm

    Gladys dragged to the right embracing the wonderful visitor attractor mega Star City Casino development after all. Sydney after all is built for visitors, not residents.

    After squealing by the Telecrap and Jones, with Gladys jumping at Perrottet shadows, she orders a review of the decision to reject the tower by the planning dept (Stokes) to be conducted by the Greater Sydney Commission, declaring Pyrmont open for business.

    but …

    The Greater Sydney Commission is supposed to be independent. But the chief executive of the Commission, Sarah Hill, has also been appointed a deputy secretary at the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment.

    This means that the head of the organisation charged with producing new advice was also the deputy head of the organisation that produced the old advice, which triggered the need for the review.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/in-sign-of-support-for-the-star-s-hotel-tower-berejiklian-orders-snap-review-20190819-p52ieq.html

    Jump Gladys, Jump.

    Gladys has never had any principles that couldn’t be bought by the highest bidder.

    An empty shell that the voters chose, because Michael Daley made a stupid off the cuff statement a few years back.

  28. Nicholas @ #131 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:07 pm

    Anyway, the only way I can see Labor winning in 2022, is to go for a radical platform which completely repudiates neo-liberalism, along with bringing ecological sustainability for this continent. This would have items such as Modern Monetary Theory, A Green New Deal, reversing laws which prevent unions organizing and striking.

    Tristo speaks a lot of sense. The top priority for Labor is to become economically literate. Everything else flows from that. You can’t change the narrative to favour a progressive agenda unless you first kill the myths about government spending and taxation. We live at a time when people are suspicious of powerful interests and institutions. Labor has little to lose by confronting economic mythology directly, with vigour, and with a strong populist message.

    ‘with vigour’. Therein lies your problem.

  29. adrian @ #123 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 11:44 am

    C@tmomma, I suppose I shouldn’t have resorted to snark, but really. There are alternatives already.

    Just imagine if we had the intelligence and foresight to invest the billions that we give to the coal industry, into renewable alternatives instead.

    Instead, we are content to fiddle while the planet burns.

    That’s okay, adrian. 🙂

    I’m just trying to be clear-eyed and realistic. Yes, I also do not want the planet to burn, but I also don’t want steel, and then buildings, made using poor materials.

    As far as the alternative H2 method of making steel, it was commented last night that there is only one test site in the world atm for that process. So we need to keep going using the traditional method until it is proven. Then, of course, stop using Coking Coal.

  30. P1,

    For our own electricity supply, we could cut coal-fired generation and emissions very aggressively indeed. The VRET and QRET are both aiming for 50% renewables by 2030, from about 14% and 7% in 2017, respectively. If NSW joined in, this would be a de facto national policy (SA and TAS are already there). However, they are probably not going to, because there is enough NSW coal-fired plant scheduled for closure over the next 15 years to do much of the heavy lifting without policy drivers. All four of Liddell (1.6GW), Bayeswater (2.6GW), Vales Point (1.3GW) and Eraring (2.8GW) are due for closure by 2035. That more than 8GW of NSW’s peak load of ~15GW scheduled for closure.

    Plus, the whole system, and NSW emissions intensity in particular, will benefit from new interconnections from NSW to SA and QLD.

    It is all being planned as we speak, without the Commonwealth govt’s involvement, because they are a bunch of mendacious, deceptive and obfuscating fucks. And that is being polite.

  31. adrian says:
    Monday, August 19, 2019 at 11:16 am

    ‘..until something better comes along.’

    My nomination for most stupid statement on the internet comment of the month award, in a crowded field.

    Just imagine for a moment…

    … how do you build wind turbines and solar panels without electricity? 😆

  32. The last few weeks have seen a lot of twitter activity from people lamenting that Bill Shorten is no longer the leader of the ALP. Interesting…..

  33. William can heave one of his psephological sighs, and C@tmomma can find a way (as she usually does) to make it all about her personally

    Well, no actually, you have misrepresented my comment to make it SEEM like I was trying to make it all about me, which I most certainly didn’t feel like it was because I haven’t been one of the ones reading very much into the 2 Newspolls we have had so far. Instead, what I was doing was defending the people on the blog you casually dismissed with yet another one of your colloquially-worded blokey disses, as increasingly ungracious as they are becoming.

    I stood up for them, not for myself, Bushfire Bill. And I will do it again whenever the hell I feel like it, whether you try to silence me by attempting to embarrass me into that silence, or not. Your opinion is not all that, it’s just another opinion, with as much credibility as the opinions of those you seek to condescend to.

  34. adrian @ #133 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:10 pm

    Nicholas @ #131 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:07 pm

    Anyway, the only way I can see Labor winning in 2022, is to go for a radical platform which completely repudiates neo-liberalism, along with bringing ecological sustainability for this continent. This would have items such as Modern Monetary Theory, A Green New Deal, reversing laws which prevent unions organizing and striking.

    Tristo speaks a lot of sense. The top priority for Labor is to become economically literate. Everything else flows from that. You can’t change the narrative to favour a progressive agenda unless you first kill the myths about government spending and taxation. We live at a time when people are suspicious of powerful interests and institutions. Labor has little to lose by confronting economic mythology directly, with vigour, and with a strong populist message.

    ‘with vigour’. Therein lies your problem.

    There will be no change in direction from Labor because they largely believe in the neo-lib philosophy of the LibNats.

  35. nath
    “The last few weeks have seen a lot of twitter activity from people lamenting that Bill Shorten is no longer the leader of the ALP. ”

    When you say “people” do you really mean “nath”?

  36. the cluster fwark that is Brexit…

    ‘Free movement for EU citizens will end on day one of a no-deal Brexit, under new Home Office plans – despite warnings of chaos and of people trapped in legal limbo.

    Priti Patel, the new hardline home secretary, is pressing for border restrictions to be imposed immediately on 31 October, even though no replacement system is ready, The Independent has been told.’

    Previously, ministers had intended to delay scrapping free movement until new rules are in place, with a bill stuck in the Commons and fierce rows over what those rules should be.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-eu-brexit-freedom-of-movement-ends-november-boris-johnson-priti-patel-home-office-a9064376.html

  37. nath, I have not seen a single twitter post mourning Shorten

    You are normally good at posting memes slagging Bill, so why not post such a tweet?

  38. ItzaDream @ #113 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 11:24 am

    Narrow and anecdotal, I know, but to add to the schlock horror of why Morrison won –

    Last week I dined with family from the bush – two nieces (Riverina and Warren) and one niece-in-law (Liverpool Plains), and their mother, one of my sisters (a Territorian).

    They talk about the worst drought ever. They talk about financial pressures. Of collecting dead lambs every day. Of shooting dying stock and dealing with carcasses. Every day. They talk about their serious concerns for their mens health, especially mental, and suicide came into the conversation. They have young children. They believe they are politically informed. (They aren’t.) They talk to each other about politics, whatever that means.

    But – they voted for Morrison because they thought he was a “better person” than Shorten. They said that. I didn’t go in hard about it; wrong time, wrong place. You know, I wonder if that if that wretched photo of Morrison ‘at prayer’, which I found offensive, actually resonated. I’m sure that their voting patterns are more complicated and entrenched, but it was interesting, and frankly shocking, to hear that voiced. But it confirms the old saying – people vote how they feel more than how they think. Or don’t think.

    Next time you’re talking to them, ask them if that is because Shorten has been divorced. Despite the massive increase in divorce in Australia in recent decades, I think there is still a significant number of people who regard divorce as a moral failing, even some who have been divorced themselves.

    On top of the “moral failing” factor, there is also the fear by some non economically independent women of divorce taking away their financial security.

    I know this may seem like I’m harking back to the past, and flying in the face of things like the same sex marriage plebiscite, etc, but it doesn’t need to be a majority of the population that feel this way – it’s enough if there is a proportion of them who might be swayed to change their vote if it weren’t for them making this sort of moral judgement.

    I’ve often wondered if the non-traditional nature of Julia Gillard’s personal relationships also activated this sort of factor.

    For the record, I don’t think other people making moral judgements about people’s marriages of their other personal relationships is acceptable or useful – the only people who really know what goes on in a relationship are the people in it. I’m just interested in what force this factor could have voting intentions.

  39. While polling continue to show a close race I think Albanese is safe.

    If the Labors polling falls away through leaking and general skullduggery I think either Fitzgibbon or Shorten will challenge for the leadership.

    I’ve no doubt Fitzgibbon believes his time is now.

  40. Dandy Murray @ #135 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:26 pm

    P1,

    For our own electricity supply, we could cut coal-fired generation and emissions very aggressively indeed. The VRET and QRET are both aiming for 50% renewables by 2030, from about 14% and 7% in 2017, respectively. If NSW joined in, this would be a de facto national policy (SA and TAS are already there). However, they are probably not going to, because there is enough NSW coal-fired plant scheduled for closure over the next 15 years to do much of the heavy lifting without policy drivers. All four of Liddell (1.6GW), Bayeswater (2.6GW), Vales Point (1.3GW) and Eraring (2.8GW) are due for closure by 2035. That more than 8GW of NSW’s peak load of ~15GW scheduled for closure.

    Plus, the whole system, and NSW emissions intensity in particular, will benefit from new interconnections from NSW to SA and QLD.

    It is all being planned as we speak, without the Commonwealth govt’s involvement, because they are a bunch of mendacious, deceptive and obfuscating fucks. And that is being polite.

    How do you factor in the presence in Queensland of a number of fairly “young” supercritical coal generators? Do you thin there will be resistance to closing those early? Genuine question.

  41. Rex Douglas @ #145 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 12:41 pm

    While polling continue to show a close race I think Albanese is safe.

    If the Labors polling falls away through leaking and general skullduggery I think either Fitzgibbon or Shorten will challenge for the leadership.

    I’ve no doubt Fitzgibbon believes his time is now.

    Fitzgibbon is a joke. Labor needs to deselect him and choose a more modern candidate. I think the Labor vote in that electorate would increase. It will be a bit like a re-run of what happened when Danby departed the scene after being kept there for ages because people were scared of the effect of getting rid of such a strong supporter of Israel. I think voters pick up on politicians who just adopt a policy position purely to cement their place – eventually it tells against them and their party.

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