Newspoll’s first result in three weeks, and second since the election, turns up a surprise in recording a shrinking in the Coalition’s lead from 53-47 to 51-49 – which, if meaningful, would mean an end to the honeymoon period and a return to where things stood at election time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 42%, down two points on the last poll and up 0.6% on the election result; Labor is on 34%, up one point and 0.7%; the Greens are on 11%, steady and up 0.6%; and One Nation are on 4%, up one point and 0.9%.
Leadership ratings are likewise consistent with the fading of a post-election sugar hit, with Scott Morrison down three on approval to 48% and up six on disapproval to 42%. Anthony Albanese’s ratings also seem to be trending from mediocre to respectable, with his approval up two to 41% and disapproval down to 34%, leaving him shading Morrison by a point on net approval. However, this hasn’t translated to preferred prime minister for some reason, on which Morrison holds a healthy lead of 48-30, out from 48-31 last time.
The poll was conducted by online and automated phone surveying from a sample of 1623, from Thursday to Sunday. Full report from The Australian here. As before, we remain in the dark as to how the pollster’s methods have been adjusted since the election failure, if at all. However, the size of the movements, and the lack of anything obvious to explain them, suggests the poll has not been subjected to the smoothing method that Newspoll must have been using before the election to give it its uncanny and, as it turned out, misleading consistency.
Don’t get to excited Maude. The same poster said the NSW state secretary would run a 1st class investigation into the claims agaisnt Emma Husar. Investigation leaked like a sieve.
Douglas and Milko @ #17 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 10:56 pm
Coalition governments until Labor sells itself as a progressive party with a remarkable track record of reform and achievement. (of course if you factor in the Green vote Labor really sits around 40% because the bulk of Green primaries go straight to Labor. You know/ What’s the Liberal primary?)
Zoidlord
China as far as I am concerned, is probably the ringleader of the global drive to destroy the notion of democracy. I can well understand the citizens of Hong Kong not wanting to give up their rights and freedoms so easily.
Meanwhile with respect to Epstein. Whether he was murdered and or committed suicide, assisted or otherwise. What are the odds of both guards being asleep for hours at the same time. One explanation could be their drinks were spiked with something that made them sleep that long.
I’m not even sure that silencing Epstein is going to be enough to cover up this shit show involving elites, blackmail, espionage, money laundering, sale and distribution of child pornography, sex trafficking and the like around the globe.
Confessions @ #48 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 8:26 am
Um, wRONg:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/01/business/economy/democrats-trump-economy.html
This poll probably asserts the status quo. Which is fine as far as it goes. But, tells us nothing about how this term of Government will unfold. The minor swing against the Government is probably the “buyers” pride effect weraing off.
I doubt anyone is taking much notice of Labor or Albo at the moment. So, the Government’s pathetic attempts to implicate Labor in all that is bad is not really resonating.
I notice from reports that the Government is concerned that the fact they have no real political agenda is starting to be noticed and they are looking at ways to be seen to be doing things. The latest activity around the recommendations of the Royal commission is a case in point.
I reckon voter earnest indifference is the new black with politics at the moment.
The broader world economy is the major concern and until Trump’s Trade War, Brexit and the next US election play out, not much is going to happen. Of course, if we go in to recession and unemployment starts to rise then the Government will suffer at the next election. But, those effects are a way off yet.
taylormade @ #51 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 8:46 am
That investigation seemed to be pretty spot on to me.
* Salacious complaints unproven
* Office management complaints proven.
Now, where’s that Liberal Party investigation into the new Victorian Liberal MP who is afraid to meet constituents and freely admits the job is overwhelming for her?
*crickets*
🙂
GG
Agreed. brexit, China, And The USA scenario are what is going to inform us going forward
I notice from reports that the Government is concerned that the fact they have no real political agenda is starting to be noticed and they are looking at ways to be seen to be doing things.
Another pointer to the Coalition’s lack of policy imagination was given with an outline of Slippery Scott’s speech to the Public Service today. Apparently he is demanding THEY come to HIM with policy ideas. 😐
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/pm-scott-morrison-to-remind-public-staffers-they-are-servants-to-his-government/news-story/ac4988579e3f5d4b7e8c292b35f2947d
Vic,
Did you see that Daily Mail report on Epstein and Prince Andrew that sprocket_ posted last night?
Here it is if you didn’t:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7367511/Prince-Andrew-pictured-inside-paedophile-Jeffrey-Epsteins-63million-mansion-depravity.html
Finally, footage of the depraved comings and goings at the JE house.
One thing Scott Morrison could work on is ensuring that any type of building product coming into the country is thoroughly vetted that it meets regulatory safety etc.
Due to the rubbish building companies purchased from China over the years,we have a seriously financial and safety disaster on our hands.
Morrison so far has shrugged his shoulders and said the states need to deal with this alone. Of course, now that NSW Liberals are making noises he may yet change his mind and help his friends.
C@t
Thanks. I hadn’t seen it, but am not surprised that there is a drip drip of information coming out.
C@tmomma @ #30 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 6:07 am
No, but we’ve now lost our top order.
The bottom line re. polling organizations is that they have admitted herding was taking place leading up to the election. This is unprofessional and deceptive behaviour, whatever the reason. It’s altering results to fit in with industry consensus.
William can heave one of his psephological sighs, and C@tmomma can find a way (as she usually does) to make it all about her personally, but discussing today’s Newspoll in any other terms than its reluctance to report on its own failings (and how, if at all, it has rectified them) is pointless.
Newspoll is trying to crash through the credulity barrier by effectively asserting that it is accurate. Its management is no doubt hoping that we will all forget one of the greatest polling disasters in Australian political history, the 2019 election, for which their organization bears a substantial measure of responsibility. From the evidence so far on this thread, that hope is not unfounded.
There may be some parts of today’s Newspoll report that are correct. But which parts? How would anyone know? Without an honest self-assessment of its failings and fixings, Newspoll is about as trustworthy and reliable as palm reading, or counting beans in a jar.
It’s been over three years since Newspoll’s predictions accurately matched actual outcomes. Since then it has been on a statistically ballistic trajectory without mid-course corrections. Who knows how wrong (or right) it is by now?
Labor egregiously (and against expert advice) relied on Newspoll (or a closely related entity) for its tracking polls throughout the campaign. Labor hardly budged on its policies, based on the “internal polling” of an organization that we now suspect was cooking its books. Talk about “losing commercial credibility”. Labor should ask for its money back.
If Newspoll is taken as having any worth at all at this stage of its disgrace, then the disgrace transfers to those who believe in it. Newspoll is trying to re-establish its credibility by refusing to admit error, and by the assertion implicit in its publication today – without comment on, or explanation of past misperformance – that there’s no problem (and never has been one). Call it the “Business As Usual” gambit.
If it is allowed to get away with this shameful fooling of us (its readership and its clients) then the shame is on us.
We all noticed the counterintuitive progress of the campaign. Many commented, pre polling day, that the name “Bill Shorten” was poison out in Voterland, but took comfort in poll-based reassurances that the policy platform was doing well enough to get Labor over the line.
On the other side, careers were terminated with such alacrity that the deserters made rats leaving a sinking ship look like models of fealty.
To his great credit, only Morrison soldiered on regardless, putting on that smug, happy-hatted head of his, against the odds. Perhaps he had little choice. Or perhaps he knew something we didn’t. We are unlikely to find out which is true, but good for him. He deserved the win he achieved.
One thing, in my opinion, is certain however: Newspoll should never be trusted again, certainly not until we receive an explanation, and a good one at that.
“Coalition governments until Labor sells itself as a progressive party with a remarkable track record of reform and achievement. (of course if you factor in the Green vote Labor really sits around 40% because the bulk of Green primaries go straight to Labor. You know/ What’s the Liberal primary?)”
The first part really is risible bullshit. I don’t even think it fits with your ‘we’ll be ruined, said Hanrahan’ prognostications, both before and after the election.
The low interest low information voter who decides elections simply doesn’t care enough to be sold anything much, other than a few quick bucks, out of the political process. Labor needs to spend the next three years positioning itself as the party of middle Australia and have a package of ‘hope’ to sell wrapped in a big middle class tax bribe. That’s the lesson from May 2019 – Labor lost it by (1) it’s anemic attack strategy and (2) trying to run a revenue review committee from opposition and not out flanking ScoMo on tax cuts – especially in NOT promising to bring forward stage two from 2022 to July 2019.
We have to go for the jugular on this omnishamables of a government (and not appear to be ‘above the fray’, trusting in the good sense of the public to throw this rabble out), but more specifically Labor needs to work out soon how to outflank ScoMo on selling the things that the low interest voters – especially the newly middle class and in the outer rim suburbs -will find attractive in the last weeks of the campaign when it actually matters.
How far removed from reality do you have to be, to work in the media?
Australia is the word’s third largest exporter of C02 emissions …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-08-19/australia-co2-exports-third-highest-worldwide/11420654
Not surprisingly, it is largely due to coal.
Various posters here who are trying to make a case for Australia not having to do anything about it should read this article.
It’s not rocket science. It’s climate science.
Lizzie: if you take a McDonald’s cheese burger and leave it out on the bench for a week or a year, it looks exactly like it did when you purchased it.
Trump is that cheese burger.
Supply does not create demand. Think about it.
Given demand, changes in supply will influence or mediate expressed and priced demand. But demand exists entirely independently of supply. There is, for example, a global abundance of seawater. It is in universal supply for almost no cost. Yet market demand for it is negligible.
Think about tobacco. The supply of tobacco has been falling in Australia because of efforts to restrain/reduce/remove demand. The only thing that would stimulate an increase in supply would be an uplift in demand. Demand leads supply.
Demand for energy is growing nearly all the time. Supply of energy will expand to satisfy this demand. The question for us is finding ways to satisfy demand without destroying the atmosphere. The only way to both service demand and protect the atmosphere is to find substitute energy sources for the carbon-rich/ GHG-dense sources we now use. This is a technical solution that will change relative supply prices and therefore change the composition of demand….but it will not change demand itself, which is driven by forces that are economy-wide.
The proposition that Supply Creates Its Own Demand is also known as Say’s Law. It’s wrong. There is an abundance of cheap labour in the world economy. It’s cheap because even though it exists and is in constant supply, there is not enough specific and relevant demand to use it. This labour is so cheap it’s below its replacement cost in many instances. The simple fact of its availability does not in itself generate demand. We can see examples of this in our own suburbs.
BB’s theories re Newspoll may be right. They are a simple and logical explanation and they fit a narrative of corrupted process, mass manipulation and plutocrat vanity. However, I believe the explanation lies elsewhere.
Specifically, that pollsters had enormous difficulty in drawing the segmented respondents that are required to conduct a proper poll due to non responses from certain demographics. Also, the emergence of Clive Palmer’s group and the volatility of the One Nation vote compared to previous Elections meant the allocation of preferences were difficult to ascertain and, in the end they got it wrong.
There’s also the shy Tory effect where people would for whatever reason proclaim their support for Labor. But, in the end actually voted for what they perceived as their interests.
The ‘herding” effect first noted by Mark the Ballot seems also to have been a real thing and something that should embarrass the Polling industry as a whole.
WB and other pseph sites did their best with what they had. But, if their data is shonky then the conclusions you draw will be shonky regardless of the charts , graphs and narratives they provide.
Player One says:
Monday, August 19, 2019 at 9:35 am
Australia is the word’s third largest exporter of C02 emissions …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-08-19/australia-co2-exports-third-highest-worldwide/11420654
Not surprisingly, it is largely due to coal.
Various posters here who are trying to make a case for Australia not having to do anything about it should read this article.
I’m not saying we should do nothing. I’m saying we should do things that are relevant and effective.
Oh P1.
80% of coal emmisssions are from the burning of coal that is mined locally.
There is a glut of coal sources globally that are more than capable of filling that 20% that the global export market accounts for. Australia has some advantage because of our efficient export systems and the quality of our coal, but make no mistake we are simply not “an influencer” in our own right when it comes to determining whether the rest of the world continues to burn coal locally.
That’s not science, climate science or otherwise. That’s economics and politics.
briefly @ #71 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 9:39 am
Your logic is flawed, your goals are contradictory, and your messaging is rubbish.
And you probably still can’t understand why Labor lost the last election.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #72 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 9:41 am
Australian coal – helping to save the planet!
Crawler. Frydenberg doesn’t have the courage of a flea.
briefly @ #69 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 9:37 am
Except that if today someone invents a way of converting seawater into energy, or gold, or anything else deemed valuable then tomorrow the demand for it would skyrocket.
The outcome of creating a huge supply of something cheap and useful is completely different from what happens when creating a huge supply of something cheap but useless.
Morning all. Speaking of financial disasters, briefly tried to quote some government nonsense last night that burning coal was not our worst source of GHG emissions when in fact it is 54% of them. But that is not the worst bit economically.
Australia is now third only to Russia and Saudi Arabia in value of fossil fuel exports (coal, gas). Great! Except we are making almost nothing from it. Australia exported $79 billion worth of coal and gas in2017 (more now)but collected less than $6 billion in tax,with >80% of the industry foreign owned. So not only are we a bad global citizen,we are giving the profits away too. Norway piled up a $900 billion soveriegn wealth fund on the back of taxing oil exports smaller in value than the oil and gas we are selling now.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/19/australia-is-third-largest-exporter-of-fossil-fuels-behind-russia-and-saudi-arabia
From this article in the Conversation,you have to say that the various resource rent taxes are too complex and have failed. Multi-nationals are gaming the system.
https://theconversation.com/australia-is-missing-out-on-tax-revenue-from-gas-projects-62899
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/19/australia-is-third-largest-exporter-of-fossil-fuels-behind-russia-and-saudi-arabia
I will give Scott Morrison credit where it is due, he is a very Machiavellian politician. When he took over the leadership of the Liberal Party, the government was expected to be defeated in a landslide. However, the election result has meant that the Coalition’s position is somewhat strengthened.
Anyway, the only way I can see Labor winning in 2022, is to go for a radical platform which completely repudiates neo-liberalism, along with bringing ecological sustainability for this continent. This would have items such as Modern Monetary Theory, A Green New Deal, reversing laws which prevent unions organizing and striking. In my opinion what Labor was proposing at the recent federal election was not radical enough, also not enough to address the problems of massive unemployment, underemployment and income inequality.
Also, Labor if anything should double down on issues such as LBGTQI rights, Aboriginal Sovereignty, and Gender Equality. Sure, the details and messaging should be changed of course, however the substance of what was being proposed in the last federal election was solid. Although Labor needs to propose major reforms to immigration system, which I see as providing a pool of cheap, easily exploitable Labour for employers. There are also other aspects of our immigration system which I see as deliberate dog-whistling to racist sentiment and nostalgia of some towards the days of the White Australia Policy (which Labor needs to promise a public apology towards all those affected by it).
I argue if Labor went down this path, they would rally a lot of Millennial and Generation Z voters, who would be willing to form an army to actively campaign and hustle for the Labor. Imagine hundreds of thousands of people campaigning for Labor knocking on doors and talking to people on the street. I argue if that occurred, The Mainstream Media has been circumvented and Labor Politicians can boycott media outlets which incite hatred and violence, such as Alan Jones with impunity. As a result, I argue Labor’s primary vote would soar well into the 40’s and the Greens would go down considerably.
I have American friends who agree with me, the only way that Trump will be defeated in 2020, is for a Democratic candidate such as Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders or Beto O’Rourke to be nominated, who can rally Millennial and Generation Z voters who will form a political army of the type I have argued above.
C@t:
Thanks for that. I’d argue that the debates don’t really count as nobody watches them.
But in any case Mayor Pete has given an interview and has raised the fact that the tariffs are hurting farmers, who are wondering how much longer they are going to take one for the team for the man baby.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/08/18/pete-buttigieg-intv-fools-errand-china-change-economic-model-tariffs-sot-sotu-vpx.cnn
Here’s something to fire up the emissions discussion.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coal-loving-australia-worlds-3rd-180000552.html
a r says:
Monday, August 19, 2019 at 9:49 am
You have missed the point. There is almost no market for demand for seawater. This is in spite of the fact that the supply quite obviously exists. The point is that supply does not lead demand. In a market, demand leads supply.
Anyone who has been trying to sell an obsolete product in a saturated market can tell you – simply because you have something, it does not follow that it can be turned into money. Demand turns things into money.
In the case of coal, demand exists independently of supply.
Demand and supply are not the same thing. They intersect, but they are different. Those who want to suspend sales of coal or gas or oil conflate the supply of these things with the demand for them. Hanger demand and the supply will change. This is the causal chain.
But in Lib-kin Garden, cause and effect are taken to be the same thing.
PO….as it happens, I know very well why Labor lost the last election. I’m not puzzled by it. As I’ve been arguing for many a long year now, the erosion in the Labor-positive plurality, corresponding to the rise in the Lib-kin vote, means Labor will most likely lose in any election. In the last one, voters feeling employment, income and cost of living pressures more acutely than others voted Lib-Lib. This will continue.
Similar tends can be seen in the US and the UK, where reactionary politics has a firm base.
Zoidlord @ #40 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 8:09 am
Another name change then (as with Dept of Human Resources becoming Dept of Govt Resources) —
Public Servants, no longer there to serve the public, now become Government Servants.
This is an extreme shift to the right.
According to FBI files, Lord Mountbatten was gay, with a penchant for young boys:
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/royals/prince-charles-mentor-lord-mountbatten-was-a-homosexual-with-a-perversion-for-young-boys-fbi-files-claim/news-story/5ab4fdb8c928610bd9a123a018b27b53
And, Andrew denies, via the palace, that he’s into underage girls:
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/royals/prince-andrew-pictured-inside-paedophile-jeffrey-epsteins-113m-manhattan-mansion-nine-years-ago/news-story/11859859340e15939b0c4c8ed709fa9e
“Australian coal – helping to save the planet!”
You are confusing me with Matt Canavan. Your ‘straw man’ misrepresentations do your arguments a disservice.
Focus Padwan. Focus!
briefly @ #81 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:10 am
I get that point, my point was that it depends on the circumstances rather than always being one way or the other. Create a cheap and abundant supply of some clever product or service that solves a problem that people “didn’t know they had” and you’ll have no trouble with demand.
Of course one can always argue along the lines of “well the demand was always there and just hidden” if intent on wrapping things up in an “always X before Y” kind of box. Economics is all just made-up voodoo nonsense anyways; there are no right or wrong answers. 🙂
Tristo…you’re wildly wrong. But go for it. Start a Party and argue for those things. You need 500 like minds to join you to register a Party. They can be the first recruits in your ‘army’. Go for it.
Australian coal is not essential to Vietnam’s plan to grow coal-fired generation at a rate of 10% to reach about 50% percent of electrical production by 2028. Instead, the drivers are demand for energy, and an abundance of cheap domestic supply of coal.
So, Australia cannot affect Vietnam’s plans to expand coal-fired electricity generation by withdrawing supply of seaborne coal.
However, we can affect Vietnam’s plans for electrification by offering support for, or direct investment in, alternative sources of electrical power generation, particularly solar. Dac Lac province is apparently quite suitable for solar.
It’s a similar story for many SAE nations.
This could be another annus horribilis for the Queen, who was already in damage control the Sunday before last.
ar….
Economics is all just made-up voodoo nonsense anyways; there are no right or wrong answers.
This is pleading that there is no point in trying to understand and explain things. This is a form of denialism. The opposite of reason is superstition. There’s a lot of superstition in Lib-kin Garden.
@briefly
I look what has been happening overseas in countries like Britain and America, which have First Past the Post. Also America has measures such as gerrymandering and “voter suppression” laws, which we don’t have and also we have preferential vote. Indeed Britain’s electoral system is the only way Boris Johnson is going to win a General Election if it is going to be held soon.
A very progressive platform as I have described above, would have Labor a narrow win the federal election, on top of a primary vote in the 40’s in my opinion. Also the Greens would have lost nearly all their senators (along with Adam Bandt being defeated in Melbourne) up for election, since their vote would have gone down by a lot.
A R,
You are confusing supply with latent demand plus technical innovation. Economists have models for these things – and some of them are actually useful!
“Albanese has assembled a pretty formidable team in his office.”
——————————
It is amusing seeing “formidable team” in the same sentence as an office of the contemporary Labor Party.
briefly @ #87 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:23 am
Yeah, and I suppose you’re wildly right.
Think I knew that already.
I personally don’t think many in the Labor Party have a clue, what just hit them in the Federal Election. However I can’t blame them, since honestly how many expected the sort of political strategies Scott Morrison and his team would use.
Neither Turnbull, Dutton or Bishop in my opinion would have been to achieve the election outcome. Sure a Dutton government would have done well as well in Queensland , Western Australia, some parts of New South Wales and Northern Tasmania. However the Liberals would have been hammered on Sydney’s North Shore and Melbourne.
Labor in my opinion is facing up a truly Machiavellian government, which will use everything in it’s arsenal to stay in office. Also the government has nearly three years now to develop strategies to win the next election, they only had a few months last time. Not to mention the police state that both Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton are building, which is capable of turning Australia into an authoritarian state like say Hungary under the rule of Viktor Orbán at least.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #85 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:22 am
And your pathetic defence of Australian coal, likewise.
Tristo:
[‘However I can’t blame them…’]
Labor was remiss for not countering Palmer’s wall-to-wall ads, particularly in Queensland, and we know where the bulk of his preferences went: 65.1% to the Tories.
Dandy Murray @ #88 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:26 am
It is amazing how many defenders of Australian coal are emerging at the moment. As I have said before, this seems to be the new party line. All you need to believe in it is an ability to doublethink, or perhaps a lobotomy.
Player One @ #96 Monday, August 19th, 2019 – 10:54 am
I’ll proudly stand up for the Coking Coal industry until something better comes along.
You’re a blinkered unrealistic ideologue if you don’t.
According to the Kouk,
“While it’s obvious the coal industry is fading from the global economy & in a couple of decades probably won’t exist, the fact is Australia exports 100 million tonnes of it every quarter (plus local consumption). It is a vital part of our economy & will be a little while longer”
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECO9Iy5U4AI_Udn?format=png&name=small