Federal election preference flows

New figures from the AEC confirm the Coalition’s share of Hanson and Palmer preferences was approaching two-thirds, a dramatic increase on past form.

We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.

The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.

The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.

While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,440 comments on “Federal election preference flows”

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  4. lizzie says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 4:18 pm

    Barney

    Now there’s a thought. Are there any really lefty independents?

    Wilkie’s probably the only one that’s been successful, but there are usually others on ballot papers.

  5. Trump isn’t winning the trade war, the Chinese are basically allowing their currency to fall which is not what Trump wants as he wants a weaker U.S dollar.

  6. sprocket_ @ #841 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 4:12 pm

    The ASX crashing is a Big Yuan – that is, the crash is caused by the plummeting Chinese currency.

    Trump is winning the trade war bigly.

    I assume that’s sarcasm, on the basis that a weaker Yuan means that China is even less likely to import stuff from the US than before and can sell its exports to overseas buyers even more cheaply. And American consumers, with their relatively strong currency, will still find it economical to buy cheap ‘Made in China’ products despite all of Trump’s tariffs.

    If the stated cause of the trade war is a trade deficit, driving the trading partner’s currency down relative to your own isn’t the path to victory. It looks more like the path to humiliating defeat. 🙂

  7. Can’t see all the paid ALP shills here really being value for money for the party.

    Must be confusing getting paid for every mention of the Greens at the same time they’re trying to pretend how supposedly irrelevant. So irrelevant that some can’t stop talking about them, ever.

    The duopoly really seems to be working hard to smear right now, worried about something it seems.

    Wouldn’t be global heating, towns running dry and collapse of the ecological systems that sustain everyone, that really concerns them though. That would mean contemplating and talking about the end of coal.

    Seems that the ALP have entirely abandoned any sort of opposition, becoming the shills for the government of the day, no corruption here. It’s a miracle isn’t it. Comfortably numb on the benches, say nothing, do nothing, be nothing.

  8. Has Paul Fletcher ever been known to agree to anything?

    [Communications Minister Paul Fletcher says the government is providing “stable and adequate” funding for the ABC and SBS, dismissing criticism of recent cuts and backing a recommendation from the competition watchdog that the national broadcasters need robust budgets.

    In its landmark report on the rise of digital platforms, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission called for the broadcasters to have stable and adequate funding to recognise their role in addressing the “risk of under-provision of public interest journalism”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/paul-fletcher-says-abc-and-sbs-enjoy-stable-and-adequate-funding-20190804-p52dnk.html

  9. China doesn’t have a floating currency, it sets the currency each day against the U.S dollar. Trump thinks this is at America’s expense but the Americans big mistake here is thinking that China would fold on Trump’s demands, and there are some in America that brought that line but its clear that isn’t going to happen.

  10. I read a piece the other day that Trump’s trade war is disturbing some of the farmer interests in the US because while Trump is promising to re-distribute tariffs collected back to the farmers, they’d prefer to be selling their produce rather than existing on hand outs from Government.

  11. Mexicanbeemer @ #857 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 4:32 pm

    China doesn’t have a floating currency, it sets the currency each day against the U.S dollar. Trump thinks this is at America’s expense but the Americans big mistake here is thinking that China would fold on Trump’s demands, and there are some in America that brought that line but its clear that isn’t going to happen.

    Stephen Bartholomeusz has it sussed:

    What’s happening has been predictable. While trade with China is shrinking (US imports from China have actually fallen less than US exports to China) global supply chains are shifting quite rapidly, as are the sources, rather than the magnitude, of the US trade deficits.

    Rather than repatriate their manufacturing to the US, as Trump had naively envisaged, multi-nationals are moving activity from China to other lower-cost jurisdictions.

    That’s undermines the Trump trade strategy at two levels.

    One is that if these third countries were lower-cost than China the activity would already have moved there of its own volition. The other is that the activity is shifting to economies that aren’t yet being subjected to the Trump tariffs.

    So far, the Trump administration has paid out more in subsidies to farmers hurt by China’s retaliatory tariffs than it has raised in extra tariff revenues.

    So, US companies and consumers face paying more for imported goods than they did before the trade war started, even though the costs might be less than if they were exported from China and were subjected to the tariffs.

    Moreover, because they don’t face the tariffs that China’s manufacturers do, there is no associated revenue for the US Government.

    …Because its imports from the US are far smaller than its exports to the US, China’s ability to impose ‘’tit-for-tat’’ tariffs is limited.

    There is, however, a range of other non-tariff measures it could take to make life uncomfortable for US companies including, perhaps, the withholding of rare earths crucial to many modern technologies. China dominates rare earths production.

    It could also allow the renminbi to weaken rather than, as it has been doing, propping it up to avoid another flash point in the relationship with the US. That may already be happening, with the renminbi sliding lower against the US dollar on Monday.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/trump-is-escalating-a-trade-war-he-isn-t-winning-20190805-p52dxf.html

  13. lizzie says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 4:29 pm

    Has Paul Fletcher ever been known to agree to anything?

    [Communications Minister Paul Fletcher says the government is providing “stable and adequate” funding for the ABC and SBS, dismissing criticism of recent cuts and backing a recommendation from the competition watchdog that the national broadcasters need robust budgets.

    In its landmark report on the rise of digital platforms, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission called for the broadcasters to have stable and adequate funding to recognise their role in addressing the “risk of under-provision of public interest journalism”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/paul-fletcher-says-abc-and-sbs-enjoy-stable-and-adequate-funding-20190804-p52dnk.html

    I suppose if the cuts are ongoing and consistent with what we have seen, that would represent a form of stability¿

  14. Painful watching Marles being grilled by Karvelas.

    Scary thought him being defence minister at a time of conflict.

  18. Sniffing around Pentecostalism, I came upon a mildly amusing synergy. The term pentecost comes from the Greek Pentekoste, meaning fiftieth day after passover which, in turn references the Jewish Festival of the Weeks (specifically seven weeks and 1 day) – their Harvest Festival. Scummo certainly reaps the benefit.

  21. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 4:50 pm

    Rex
    Maybe the PM said something worth agreeing with.

    Not that you’d know from Rex’s idiotic comment.

  22. Always find it flattering when someone suggests I’ve been paid to post.

    Must mean my posts are too awesome to belong to an amateur.

  24. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 4:54 pm

    Mexicanbeemer @ #864 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 4:50 pm

    Rex
    Maybe the PM said something worth agreeing with.

    The PM is a shonky salesman who deserves no respect , in my opinion.

    Yes, the in depth analysis you’ve become famous for¿

  25. INTERVIEWER: Prime minister, what’s the time?
    PM: It’s 4:56pm AEST.
    INTERVIEWER: Shadow minister?
    MARLES: I disagree with the Prime Minister, a shonky salesman who deserves no respect. It’s actually 2:14am. Vote Labor.

  30. ItzaDream says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 5:08 pm

    It’s always 2:14am somewhere.

    Nah, it normally only happens once an hour! 🙂

  33. The trouble with spending thousands rehabilitating riverbanks is that the effin wombats move in and try to wreck the joint. They are mini dozers, tunnel borers and plant loppers.
    Anyone who wants to help us stabilize our riverbank and protect thousands of expensive hand-planted local plants can come and shoot some wombats. There is no problem with getting vermin control permits so it is all legal as well as common sense.
    Greenies with emoticons where their brains ought to be need not apply.

  35. Boerwar @ #880 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 5:26 pm

    The trouble with spending thousands rehabilitating riverbanks is that the effin wombats move in and try to wreck the joint. They are mini dozers, tunnel borers and plant loppers.
    Anyone who wants to help us stabilize our riverbank and protect thousands of expensive hand-planted local plants can come and shoot some wombats. There is no problem with getting vermin control permits so it is all legal as well as common sense.
    ….

    Will you supply the ammo, beer and pizza ..?

  39. Boerwar says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 5:35 pm

    Rex
    We could find you a spare burrow.

    Make sure it’s deep with no connectivity. 🙂

  40. Boerwar

    When you described how you had cleared the river banks and were then assulated by wombats, it struck a chord with me. Friends helpfully cleared all the blackberry around my dam and that allowed the wombats in. The brambles were protecting the inner banks. 🙁

  41. I note that the senior NT indigenous leader has threatened to throw the Constitution into the sea.
    A couple of observations:
    1. The Declaration from the Heart may be the well be the last time that Indigenous Australians attempt to resolve colonialism peaceably.
    2. The process of the formation of Indigenous nationalism is well-advanced.

  42. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 4:25 pm

    China needs to be forced to go to a free float – that would fix a lot of the issues with global trade.

  45. Bucephalus says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 5:46 pm

    Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 4:25 pm

    China needs to be forced to go to a free float – that would fix a lot of the issues with global trade.

    And how would you do that?

  46. Late Riser says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 5:49 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #888 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 5:36 pm

    Otherwise Facebook would be knowingly propagating fake news.

    Whatevs. Not our doing. Not our problem.

    Just shows that any “deal” is worthless then! 🙂

  49. I can recall staying on farm at Canyonleigh, just east of Goulburn. The wombats had dug the most whopping holes you have ever seen – they reminded me of the trenches the Diggers created in the wars, possibly even during the Boer War.

    The farm owners didn’t mind them, rather they saved their ire for the herd of wild deers who would arrive at sparrow’s fart and trample the garden beds.

  50. We dog proofed our houseblock fence at great expenditure of time and money, only to have it literally undermined by the local wombats. Unless we sink wire underground to at least a metre, all we can do is patch the holes they’ve made. Being creatures of habit, who have set trails they like to follow, that really won’t work either.

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