Essential Research: Newstart, robodebt, social media

More evidence that voters favour social democratic policy options, right up until polling day.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which is still yet to resume results for voting intention, focuses largely on questions around social security. Among its findings are that the Newstart rate is deemed too low by 58%, about right by 30% and too high by 5%. Forty-four per cent expressed strong support for an increase from $280 per week to $355, a further 31% said they somewhat supported it, and only 18% said they were opposed, 7% strongly.

I don’t normally make anything out of breakdowns published in average sample polls, but it’s interesting to note that the “too low” response increases progressively across the three age cohorts to peak at 66% among the 55-and-over. There was also a relationship between age and correct answers to a question in which respondents were asked to identify the weekly Newstart payment, the overall result for which was 40%, up from 27% when it was previously asked last June. Only 29% of Coalition voters expressed strong support for an increase compared with 55% for Labor supporters, but the difference was narrower when combined with the “somewhat” response, at 84% to 68%.

On the Centrelink “robodebt” debt recovery program, 58% supported calls for it to be shut down compared with 32% opposed. Twenty-two per cent said they had heard a lot about the program and 30% a little, while 18% said they had not heard any details and 30% that they were not aware of it at all.

The one question not relating to social security covers social media companies’ collection of personal information, with 80% expressing concern about the matter and the same number wanting tighter regulation. The affirmative response for both questions progressively increased across the three age cohorts.

Also noteworthy from the poll is that Essential Research has taken to publishing “base” figures for each cohort in the breakdown, which evidently reflect their proportion of the total after weightings are applied. This is at least a step in the direction of the transparency that is the norm in British and American polling, in that it tell us how Essential is modelling the overall population, even if it doesn’t divulge how much each cohort’s responses are being weighted to produce those totals.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an online sample of 1102 respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

533 comments on “Essential Research: Newstart, robodebt, social media”

  1. I saw Melissa Price today at an event in Perth. I wasn’t at the same event as she was, but my breakfast function was in the same venue.

  2. shellbell:

    You can be so random from time to time – no offence. I would, though, appreciate it if you were to state an equivocal view, as most lawyers invariably do(?) – and, most crucially, in the form that us plebs comprehend. I’m sometimes lost by your meanderings. Often in judgments, there’s a ratio, sometimes it’s merely obiter. I think, with respect, you missed the point of Michaela Banerj’s matter, not only substantively but also as to costs, where there’s at least a degree of discretion. This woman’s ruined.

    From memory, you joined this site some 13 years ago. We look forward to your ongoing contrbution.

  3. With Banerji – does the Commonwealth waive the costs order?

    They waived the recovery for those MP’s who were disqualified under s44, surely the same mercy can be extended to Banerji?

    I think Porter decided to fund her legal costs (because it was a matter of public importance) so surely he should waive the Commonwealth’s legal costs against her?

    It would seem the honourable thing to do?

  4. Not sure about this, if this stunt was serious there is not likely to be much co-operation in finding the problem and solution in the future.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-07/regulator-legal-action-against-energy-companies-over-sa-blackout/11390400

    The full aemo report is here:

    https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Market_Notices_and_Events/Power_System_Incident_Reports/2017/Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016.pdf

    Can’t see a recommendation in the AEMO report for the AER to act as they have.

    Further the report suggest improvements in connection standards but does not talk about failure to meet past requirements.

    The report is quite technical and makes interesting reading if your into that sort of stuff. The report provides a simple description.

    The damage to these three transmission lines caused them to trip, and a sequence of faults in quick succession resulted in six voltage dips on the SA grid over a two-minute period at around 4.16 pm.

    As the number of faults on the transmission network grew, nine wind farms in the mid-north of SA exhibited a sustained reduction in power as a protection feature activated. For eight of these wind farms, the protection settings of their wind turbines allowed them to withstand a pre-set number of voltage dips within a two-minute period.

    Activation of this protection feature resulted in a significant sustained power reduction for these wind farms. A sustained generation reduction of 456 megawatts (MW) occurred over a period of less than seven seconds.The reduction in wind farm output caused a significant increase in imported power flowing through the Heywood Interconnector.

    Approximately 700 milliseconds (ms) after the reduction of output from the last of the wind farms, the flow on the Victoria–SA Heywood Interconnector reached such a level that it activated a special protection scheme that tripped the interconnector offline. The SA power system then became separated (“islanded”) from the rest of the NEM.

    Without any substantial load shedding following the system separation, the remaining generation was much less than the connected load and unable to maintain the islanded system frequency. As a result, all supply to the SA region was lost at 4.18 pm (the Black System).

    AEMO’s analysis shows that following system separation, frequency collapse and the consequent Black System was inevitable.Immediately following the Black System, AEMO and ElectraNet first assessed the state of the transmission network, then ElectraNet made safe the damaged transmission lines that may have been presenting a potential threat to public safety.

    After assessing what sections of the network were safe to energise, a system restart plan began at 4.30 pm, including restart capability from one of two contracted SA system restart ancillary service (SRAS) generators, and supply from Victoria via the Heywood Interconnector.

    The wind farms had nothing to do with the cause.

    It all smells ratty to me; and given what happened, and the technical nature of the issue I can’t see the AER doing more than generating a few headlines.

  5. Honour? What’s this ‘honour’ you are talking about Lars? Banerji is a useful lesson to every other quaking public servant. I reckon that Dutton will start wearing her head as a Cap around the office next week.

  6. Mr Earlwood, well of course Porter triumphed but charity and alms towards the defeated is rather appealing.

    Not bankrupting her would be a wise move but I defer to your superior political judgement which you have demonstrated on this site many many times in the past.

  7. C@t:

    I didn’t catch the breakfast function she was at. Mine was a different breakfast function at the same venue, hosted by a state government minister though.

  8. “Not bankrupting her would be a wise move but I defer to your superior political judgement which you have demonstrated on this site many many times in the past.”

    You do a poor smug c#@t Edwina. This is not about wisdom, or political judgement even. It’s more visceral.

  9. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, August 8, 2019 at 9:07 pm
    “Not bankrupting her would be a wise move but I defer to your superior political judgement which you have demonstrated on this site many many times in the past.”

    You do a poor smug c#@t Edwina. This is not about wisdom, or even political judgement even. It’s more visceral.
    _____________________________________
    What a shame that you needed to resort to abuse and name calling to make your argument.

  10. “What a shame that you needed to resort to abuse and name calling to make your argument.”

    The shit you write often needs a paddling Eddie

  11. Inching closer. Good!

    According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, major Wall Street financial institutions have handed a wealth of information on Russians linked to Donald Trump and members of his family to congressional committees.

    The report states, there are “thousands of pages of documents related to Russians who may have had dealings with Mr. Trump, his family or his business,” according to sources.

    “Some banks are also giving documents related to Mr. Trump’s business, the Trump Organization, to New York state investigators,” the report continues.

    Among the institutions turning over documents, are Bank of America Corp. , Citigroup Inc.,Deutsche Bank AG , JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co.

    The Journal adds, “The investigators are working on a joint probe into potential foreign influence on Mr. Trump and his family by the House Financial Services Committee and the House Intelligence Committee. More information will likely be handed over in coming weeks as the banks continue to respond to subpoenas sent in April

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/major-wall-street-banks-hand-over-treasure-trove-of-information-on-russians-liked-to-trump-and-family-report/

  12. One of my favourite commentators, Tom Nichols is on Real Time Saturday. I can’t recall seeing him appear before, so maybe his first time.

    :large

  13. “Portland has been identified as one of 20 suitable sites for a nuclear power station.
    The Australian Nuclear Association listed the city as a preferred site in a presentation to the Australian Institute of Energy in Victoria.
    Glenelg Shire councillor Robert Halliday said he did not know enough about nuclear power to comment on it, but conceded options needed to be considered to ensure the long-term viability of the city’s aluminium smelter”

    Bring it on. 450 blue collar jobs saved as well as a reliable supply into SA via the Heywood interconnector.

  14. sprocket_
    says:
    Thursday, August 8, 2019 at 9:55 pm
    Dotard gets a photo opportunity with victims in El Paso
    ____________________________________
    Is this an example of Disaster Politics?

  15. Diogenes @ #518 Thursday, August 8th, 2019 – 9:59 pm

    C@t
    Its more traumatic for the kids to see doctors and nurses performing CPR and intubating their father

    Exactly.That’s the point I was trying to make. It’s why I support the Right to Die…if you are terminally ill…at a time of your choosing. With all appropriate checks and balances, of course.

  16. Confessions @ #523 Thursday, August 8th, 2019 – 10:13 pm

    C@tmomma @ #354 Thursday, August 8th, 2019 – 8:09 pm

    ‘fess,
    And The Mooch!

    Yeah the number of media personalities riffing off Dotard is growing by the second. I just hope the Democrats get their shit together and defeat him next year.

    He’s easy to riff off. 😐

    I mean, that photo of him with the victims in El Paso. They aren’t smiling and he’s got a big, inappropriate cheesy grin going on. 🙄

  17. Nine remote Aboriginal communities in Western Australia are suing the Federal Government in a landmark action over its controversial remote work-for-the-dole scheme which they argue is racially discriminatory.

    Key points:
    The legal action in court follows two years of failed mediation between the two parties
    The complainants argue the CDP, or work-for-the-dole, is racially discriminatory and unlawful
    CDP has faced criticism from participants, advocates, Labor and the Greens
    The remote work-for-the-dole scheme is formally known as the Community Development Program, or CDP.

    The dispute has reached the Federal Court after two years of mediation, overseen by retired judge Robert French, which failed to resolve the matter.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-09/aboriginal-communities-sue-federal-government-over-cdp/11267290

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