Essential Research: Newstart, robodebt, social media

More evidence that voters favour social democratic policy options, right up until polling day.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which is still yet to resume results for voting intention, focuses largely on questions around social security. Among its findings are that the Newstart rate is deemed too low by 58%, about right by 30% and too high by 5%. Forty-four per cent expressed strong support for an increase from $280 per week to $355, a further 31% said they somewhat supported it, and only 18% said they were opposed, 7% strongly.

I don’t normally make anything out of breakdowns published in average sample polls, but it’s interesting to note that the “too low” response increases progressively across the three age cohorts to peak at 66% among the 55-and-over. There was also a relationship between age and correct answers to a question in which respondents were asked to identify the weekly Newstart payment, the overall result for which was 40%, up from 27% when it was previously asked last June. Only 29% of Coalition voters expressed strong support for an increase compared with 55% for Labor supporters, but the difference was narrower when combined with the “somewhat” response, at 84% to 68%.

On the Centrelink “robodebt” debt recovery program, 58% supported calls for it to be shut down compared with 32% opposed. Twenty-two per cent said they had heard a lot about the program and 30% a little, while 18% said they had not heard any details and 30% that they were not aware of it at all.

The one question not relating to social security covers social media companies’ collection of personal information, with 80% expressing concern about the matter and the same number wanting tighter regulation. The affirmative response for both questions progressively increased across the three age cohorts.

Also noteworthy from the poll is that Essential Research has taken to publishing “base” figures for each cohort in the breakdown, which evidently reflect their proportion of the total after weightings are applied. This is at least a step in the direction of the transparency that is the norm in British and American polling, in that it tell us how Essential is modelling the overall population, even if it doesn’t divulge how much each cohort’s responses are being weighted to produce those totals.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an online sample of 1102 respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

533 comments on “Essential Research: Newstart, robodebt, social media”

  1. C@tmomma
    “And? That girl is probably safer than if in a room with some religious types!”

    You couldn’t trust some priests in the sacristy. Never mind a bathroom.

  2. Lyle Shelton needs to post more.

    We are getting verily slapped around here in the Adelaide Hills. Wind. Rain. Temps hovering in the mid single digits. Just waiting on the promised hail.

  3. BK and SK

    It’s almost still here, and I’m waiting rather anxiously for the big blow, which is supposed to happen overnight. Last night we had 30ml rain so the ground is wet and soggy – just right for trees to blow over in a big wind. 🙁

  4. Shelton is a gift that keeps on giving.

    Personally I quite like the idea of unisex toilets. And… I have met females I am less comfortable sharing a toilet with than some waxed ball gender chameleon or whatever it is that Lyle has a secret yearning for.

    Speaking of chick with dicks….. I love this song.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ALxWYicl2M

  5. Last night we had 30ml rain

    Mt Lofty just got 20ml in an hour. And that isnt normally where the rain falls the hardest. Back in behind the mountain will be drenched.

  6. Time for a hot shower methinks.

    And a warm cup of Milo.

    The sirens are sounding. It will be a busy hour or so around here for the cfs.

  7. I for one hate unisex toilets in the workplace. You only need someone to claim sexual harassment or worst happened in the toilet and it cannot be proven as there are rightly no cameras.

  8. Simon Katich
    says:
    Thursday, August 8, 2019 at 4:02 pm
    Personally I quite like the idea of unisex toilets. And… I have met females I am less comfortable sharing a toilet with than some waxed ball gender chameleon or whatever it is that Lyle has a secret yearning for.
    Speaking of chick with dicks….. I love this song.
    ______________________________________
    let’s not bring up your pornhub search history!

  9. When was the last time you saw the night sky in its full awesome glory? For me it was many many years ago, on a tall treeless hill in Nevada. I shared the view with one other and a beer. That upturned bowl of jewels was at the same time a single huge thing and countless tiny joys. I miss it. So I was drawn to this analysis of light pollution in the USA.


    https://www.sciencealert.com/light-pollution-is-a-huge-problem-and-there-s-few-places-left-in-the-us-without-it

    My thought is that this might also be a map of where people aren’t.

  10. For those predicting/hoping for an electoral demise of Trumpenstein some bad news.

    Don’t Assume Trump’s Approval Rating Can’t Climb Higher. It Already Has.

    Millions of Americans who did not like the president in 2016 now say they do.

    Trump’s Favorability Rating Is Higher Than in 2016
    His personal favorability ratings surged after he won the presidency, and they haven’t fallen back.

    And over the last few months, some of the highest-quality public opinion polls, though not all, showed the president’s job approval rating — a different measure from personal favorability — had inched up to essentially match the highest level of his term.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/07/upshot/trump-approval-rating-rise.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  11. This uptick in Trump’s approval seems to have eluded the aggregate polling by 538. I’m not saying this NY Times story is wrong, but one or two swallows doesn’t make a summer.

  12. poroti

    Polls prior to the election averages at Clinton being ahead 47-44 (she won the popular vote 48-46)

    Most recent Trump approval rating by a 538 A rated pollster was 56-40.

    The RCP average of Biden v Trump has Biden 8.5pts ahead…. 50-41.5. The most recent was Biden up 13.

    I have more faith in the US putting Trump out on his ear even while the economy is doing well than Australia doing the same with Morrison with a poorly performing economy.

  13. Simon Katich @ #468 Thursday, August 8th, 2019 – 5:39 pm

    poroti

    Polls prior to the election averages at Clinton being ahead 47-44 (she won the popular vote 48-46)

    Most recent Trump approval rating by a 538 A rated pollster was 56-40.

    The RCP average of Biden v Trump has Biden 8.5pts ahead…. 50-41.5. The most recent was Biden up 13.

    I have more faith in the US putting Trump out on his ear even while the economy is doing well than Australia doing the same with Morrison with a poorly performing economy.

    The result will depend on who turns up on the day to vote and whether moderate Republican voters will say enough is enough.

  14. The only conclusion to make is that citizens of the US don’t really care that their neighbours are getting slaughtered.

    How messed up is that …!?

  15. Tanya Plibersek @tanya_plibersek
    ·
    3h
    The business community is right, under Scott Morrison + the Liberals, Australia is in a skills crisis.

    More than 150,000 apprentices + trainees have been lost under the Liberals. $3 billion has been slashed from TAFE + training.

  16. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, August 8, 2019 at 5:56 pm

    Doesn’t everyone use unisex toilets in their homes!?! Even Lyle Shelton!?!
    ——————
    Sure they do and the issue isn’t the idea of two people using the same toilet but I can see it eventually happening where a women in a manager role taking the opportunity to use the bathroom as a way of getting rid of a junior staffer she doesn’t like.

  17. Sure they do and the issue isn’t the idea of two people using the same toilet but I can see it eventually happening where a women in a manager takes the opportunity to use the bathroom as a way of getting rid of a junior staff she doesn’t like.

    I am glad I dont work where you work.

  18. Simon
    I was thinking of a former workplace that had a seriously toxic environment. It was that bad that simply shaking your head or using everyday terms was enough to get a serious talking too.

  19. There is a Young Liberal on The Drum who has reminded me of two arguments that I disagree with: that people shouldn’t need euthanasia because palliative care should be stepped up; and that women need more support as single mothers, then they wouldn’t seek terminations.

    For the latter, there has been a string of messages on Twitter from women who have terminated pregnancies because of serious physical deformities in the developing foetus, such as no face, or absence of a complete nervous system. I make no further comment.

  20. Looking forward to the next kudelka cartoon!

    Cartoonist Overlord @jonkudelka
    1m
    Lyle just sitting at his computer with his hairy balls thinking this has been quite a day.

  21. Ray Sanderson @sando88
    ·
    8h
    More evidence of @ScottMorrisonMP fakery & arrogance. He flew to Townsville this morning, didn’t tell Mayor he was coming. During floods in Jan/Feb he promised city $250 million for immediate action to help recovery, not a dollar received as yet. What a liar.

  22. lizzie
    Thursday, August 8th, 2019 – 6:34 pm
    Comment #414

    There is a Young Liberal on The Drum
    Da Dum Da Dum Da dumb

    All together now mes amis.

    ♫I’ve been washed down the ♪ sink of your ♫ conscience
    In the ♫theater of your ♪ love I lost my ♫ part
    And ♫ now you ♫ say you’ve got ♪ me out of your ♪ conscience
    I’ve ♫ been flushed from ♫ the bathroom of your ♫ heart

    🛀 ❤

  23. lizzie @ #487 Thursday, August 8th, 2019 – 6:34 pm

    Ray Sanderson @sando88
    ·
    8h
    More evidence of @ScottMorrisonMP fakery & arrogance. He flew to Townsville this morning, didn’t tell Mayor he was coming. During floods in Jan/Feb he promised city $250 million for immediate action to help recovery, not a dollar received as yet. What a liar.

    The shonky salesman PM in action.

    Good to see the Opposition right onto this….

  24. There is a Young Liberal on The Drum who has reminded me of two arguments that I disagree with: that people shouldn’t need euthanasia because palliative care should be stepped up; and that women need more support as single mothers, then they wouldn’t seek terminations.

    That young person obviously hasn’t had to watch his father, mother, wife, husband, brother, sister, grandmother, grandfather…go through total organ failure and body shutdown, as they pass through the terminal phases of terminal cancer, only for the body to find the last vestiges of its strength to fight back to life, only for it to happen again a couple of days later, and then for the person to finally pass away a couple of days after that. All while the patient was being given full palliative care.

    That’s what I and my boys experienced. My husband would have much preferred to have gone at a time of his choosing, however the doctors were obligated to do everything they could to resuscitate him, until such time as they could do it no longer.

    As far as the Liberals caring for Single Mothers. Who are they trying to kid? It’s just words. Their actions speak louder. And it’s called ParentsNext.

  25. lizzie @ #487 Thursday, August 8th, 2019 – 6:34 pm

    Ray Sanderson @sando88
    ·
    8h
    More evidence of @ScottMorrisonMP fakery & arrogance. He flew to Townsville this morning, didn’t tell Mayor he was coming. During floods in Jan/Feb he promised city $250 million for immediate action to help recovery, not a dollar received as yet. What a liar.

    His freakin’ Surplus is more important than people. Bragging rights. Oh, and he’ll probably get to promise it again next election.

  26. England cricket coach Trevor Bayliss says his team turned to former Labor leader Bill Shorten at tea on the first day of the first test match in Edgbasten, in an effort to fight their way out of an unlosable position.
    “We had Australia on the ropes at eight for 122, and we didn’t really know how we could cock it up from that position. So we put in a call to Bill,” Bayliss explained.
    Shorten spoke to the players at the tea interval, giving them a range of techniques to orchestrate a come-from-in-front loss.

    http://www.theshovel.com.au/2019/08/06/england-confirms-it-received-coaching-assistance-from-bill-shorten/

  27. Rex Douglas:

    [‘The shonky salesman PM in action.

    Good to see the Opposition right onto this….’]

    At least you got the first part right, following which you merely followed form.

  28. Having just been through the process a fortnight ago there is no obligation on Doctors to resuscitate a patient who is palliative care – especially when they are told by patient and next of kin that they are a DNR.

  29. Bucephalus @ #495 Thursday, August 8th, 2019 – 7:26 pm

    Having just been through the process a fortnight ago there is no obligation on Doctors to resuscitate a patient who is palliative care – especially when they are told by patient and next of kin that they are a DNR.

    I’m sorry, Bucephalus, but you try telling a 13yo and an 11yo that you have ordered that their father not be revived. They’d think you were the worst person in the world. Not every situation is as cut and dried as you make out. Their father would have preferred to go at a time of his choosing with his family around him. THAT I could have explained to the children.

  30. [‘The RCP average of Biden v Trump has Biden 8.5pts ahead…. 50-41.5. The most recent was Biden up 13.’]

    Uncle Joe’s the only Democrat who can take it right up to Trump. And, he started yesterday by attacking him directly as the racist, white supremacist he most undoubtedly is. There’s no one who can do similarly. He has the recognition, the experience to defeat the yellow-haired ogre, his only negative being his age. I mean to say, he’s even older than me. Go, great, great-uncle Joe!

  31. I learn tonight from the ABC that Andy Hastie & his security mob are back in fashion with the federal government. And Hastie, as opposed to other servants of the public, has the right to free speech.

  32. Because we have not acted, we now cannot fix climate change by simply stopping the burning of fossil fuels. That boat has sailed:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-08-08/ipcc-report-climate-change-land-use/11391180

    Most likely, even though we now know this, we will still not act. Most people are simply too ignorant, too stupid and/or too selfish to see that action – and not just words (or even thoughts and prayers) – is required. Most people have still done nothing at all to change their suicidal behaviour.

    Quite soon, we will also not be able to fix climate change even if we stop burning fossil fuels and also change our diet and our land management practices. And there is little doubt that when we hit that point, people will still not act, and for the same reasons.

    I will leave it to your imagination to guess what the final solution will actually look like. Hint: Most of you are not going to like it 🙁

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *