It seems the only state that can rely on a regular polling series these days in Tasmania, where local outfit EMRS has been plugging away with state voting intention polling on a more-or-less quarterly basis for as long as this site can remember.
Its latest numbers raise the possibility that state Labor has suffered collateral damage from the federal election, with their vote down four to 30%, while the Liberals are steady at 38% and the Greens up three to 16%. Nonetheless, Labor’s Rebecca White remains in the unusual position of leading the incumbent, Will Hodgman, by 45-40 as preferred premier, up from 43-41.
Kevin Bonham’s take on the voting intention numbers is that the Liberals would hold on to a bare majority, with the qualification that a) the Greens and especially “others” numbers seem higher than plausible, true to the pollster’s form, and b) Sue Hickey’s rebellious activities raise doubts about the implied second seat for the Liberals in Denison/Clark.
The poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1000. The series used to be branded as a phone poll, but these days the survey method is not divulged. Kevin Bonham’s pollster field guide suggests it now covers the gamut of landline, mobile and online panel polling.