Federal election preference flows

New figures from the AEC confirm the Coalition’s share of Hanson and Palmer preferences was approaching two-thirds, a dramatic increase on past form.

We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.

The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.

The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.

While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,440 comments on “Federal election preference flows”

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  1. Z
    I know of one house that subsided in one corner because of wombats burrowing under the house.
    The inner urban latte sipping Greens make sure there are no wombats where they live!

  2. Boer

    Someone asked my husband the other day whether he’d worried about wombats when he built our house – he said that’s why he built all the walls with concrete bases up to 30 cm and the walls themselves are 60 cm thick….

  3. In Victoria

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/03/victoria-criticised-for-2bn-prison-spend-while-neglecting-social-housing

    Victoria spends about half the national average per person on social housing. There are about 80,000 people on the public housing waiting list, including 25,000 children. A report last week found homelessness was being increasingly concentrated in Australia’s capital cities, including Melbourne, a change driven by rising rents.
    :::
    Libby Porter is an RMIT academic who is unimpressed by the government’s record. “It’s just laughable they think 1,000 units is anywhere near close to what we need,” Porter said.

    She noted that ABS figures released last week showed only 66 public housing dwellings were approved in Victoria in the first quarter of 2019.
    :::
    Porter’s analysis suggests that, of the first three inner-city housing estates where the government has struck a deal with a developer, the result will be additional social housing units but fewer bedrooms. None so far will be “public units”.

    It means the redeveloped community housing units will end up serving fewer low-income Victorians.
    :::
    Like social service groups, the Greens have questioned the government’s priorities. “This budget is spending almost 10 times more on new prisons than it is on new public housing,” the Greens leader, Samantha Ratnam, told parliament last week.

    The $1.8bn will fund a new jail at Lara, near Geelong, and upgrade other correctional facilities. The 1,000 new public housing units will cost $200m. There are 160 homes funded for the 2019-20 financial year, according to the budget papers.

  4. If every Greens voter made the empty bedrooms in their houses available to homeless people there would be no homelessness in Australia and one less item for the Greens to angst about.
    Win Win.

  5. Boerwar says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 6:28 pm

    If every Greens voter made the empty bedrooms in their houses available to homeless people there would be no homelessness in Australia and one less item for the Greens to angst about.
    Win Win.

    Nah, not going to happen.

    That would constitute an effective policy. 🙂

  6. Mungo MacCallum is angry re Crown and corruption

    https://www.johnmenadue.com/mungo-maccallum-gambling-stench-hits-nostrils/

    But when the Greens and crossbenchers demanded a public inquiry the attorney general, Christian Porter, with the support of a supine Labor Party, knocked them back with an ineffective alternative that would shield the politicians and their staffers from scrutiny.

    This looks horribly like a stitch up – an escalation of the corruption it was supposed to prevent. It not just fails the smell test – it stinks to high heaven. And fact that both major parties have received lavish donations from Crown, and that at least two former ministers, the Liberals’ Helen Coonan and Labor’s Mark Arbib, have been given well-paid sinecures by the company, only compounds the stench.
    :::
    The coalition has reluctantly foreshadowed a version that would have more loopholes in it than Morrison’s code of ministerial conduct, and although Labor has promised something more robust, the events of last week have made that pledge seem extremely dubious.
    :::
    So back to the bipartisan blather about the need for national security, border protection and the rest of the bullshit masquerading as policy. The politicians on both sides seem determined to destroy the foundations of the system of government in the pretence of saving it.

  7. Boerwar @ #912 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 6:28 pm

    If every Greens voter made the empty bedrooms in their houses available to homeless people there would be no homelessness in Australia and one less item for the Greens to angst about.
    Win Win.

    Make it so that everyone with spare bedrooms has to submit them to a national registry regardless of political affiliation and then run an annual lottery to randomly assign homeless people to bedrooms until there are no more homeless people, and I’d vote for it. Also each homeless person should come with a government stipend to cover their food, utility usage, etc.. 🙂

  8. ar
    The Greens are busy telling every one else that the are responsible for the homelessness problem AND telling everyone else to stop jailing murderers etc and telling everyone else to spend more of their own money when the Greens could take some personal responsibility and fix the problem just like that.

  9. a r @ #917 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 4:34 pm

    Boerwar @ #912 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 6:28 pm

    If every Greens voter made the empty bedrooms in their houses available to homeless people there would be no homelessness in Australia and one less item for the Greens to angst about.
    Win Win.

    Make it so that everyone with spare bedrooms has to submit them to a national registry regardless of political affiliation and then run an annual lottery to randomly assign homeless people to bedrooms until there are no more homeless people, and I’d vote for it. Also each homeless person should come with a government stipend to cover their food, utility usage, etc.. 🙂

    Nope. House them in all the negatively geared properties that are empty.

  10. I think that Barnaby was the closest we’ll ever get to a wombat as PM.

    His only activity was that he eats roots and leaves.

  11. Dan Gulberry @ #923 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 6:43 pm

    a r @ #917 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 4:34 pm

    Boerwar @ #912 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 6:28 pm

    If every Greens voter made the empty bedrooms in their houses available to homeless people there would be no homelessness in Australia and one less item for the Greens to angst about.
    Win Win.

    Make it so that everyone with spare bedrooms has to submit them to a national registry regardless of political affiliation and then run an annual lottery to randomly assign homeless people to bedrooms until there are no more homeless people, and I’d vote for it. Also each homeless person should come with a government stipend to cover their food, utility usage, etc.. 🙂

    Nope. House them in all the negatively geared properties that are empty.

    Using the cash being lost on the stock market.

  12. The Greens could run a national homeless BnB scheme.
    The could call it something like:
    We’ve got you Pegged!
    OR
    Chez Rex!
    OR
    Dinna with Dinna!

  13. Puffy, if you’re about:

    PuffyTMD says:
    Sunday, July 28, 2019 at 3:34 pm
    I have to tell you the sad news that my Mum, Meoldema, died in hospital in her sleep last night.

    Haven’t logged in for ages, been too depressed since the election.

    Condolences to you, and your family. You’ve looked after your mum for such a long time, you must be feeling lost and free at the same time. I’m sure she cherished your care.

    Look after yourself, kiddo.

    Much love to you.

  14. The Siewart Stayover
    The Rice Rest Home
    The Hanson Young Hacienda
    The Whish Wilson Waterbed..

    Housing crisis has a dent with these civic minded Senators opening up their homes

  15. Barney in Makassar @ #896 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 5:53 pm

    Late Riser says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 5:49 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #888 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 5:36 pm

    Otherwise Facebook would be knowingly propagating fake news.

    Whatevs. Not our doing. Not our problem.

    Just shows that any “deal” is worthless then! 🙂

    Agreed. Worthless by design. It’s transparently simple. Facebook doesn’t post fake news, people post fake news. The bit that is ignored is that it’s people *with* Facebook that post fake news. (…and people *with* guns … etc.)

  16. Since I live on my own and have a spare room where my mother used to live, I often feel guilty about the homeless, but there are many reasons why I shouldn’t offer a space, among them the distance I live from the city. I compensate by donating as many material goods as I can to opp shops.

  17. Barney in Makassar @ #915 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 4:31 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 6:28 pm

    If every Greens voter made the empty bedrooms in their houses available to homeless people there would be no homelessness in Australia and one less item for the Greens to angst about.
    Win Win.

    Nah, not going to happen.

    That would constitute an effective policy. 🙂

    From memory some of them did offer to put up asylum seekers free of charge.

  18. Of course, if someone else, aka a Laborite, had posted those links about homelessness, the juvenile trivialisation of some of the most vulnerable human beings in our relatively wealthy society, would not occur.

    Way to go guys.

  19. Lyle Shelton is taking a “moral stance” about voluntary euthanasia, saying that it is all the fault of lack of funds for adequate palliative care. He has no empathy or understanding and is just an attention-seeking waste of space. IMO.

  20. Hi BK and Lizzie

    Hope you’re keeping well.

    I see there’s another couple of mentally ill white guys in the US.

    Isn’t it passing strange that mass murderers, if they’re white and Christian, are somehow deranged, yet a mass murderer of another colour/religion is a terrorist.

  21. Confessions @ #942 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 7:01 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #915 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 4:31 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 6:28 pm

    If every Greens voter made the empty bedrooms in their houses available to homeless people there would be no homelessness in Australia and one less item for the Greens to angst about.
    Win Win.

    Nah, not going to happen.

    That would constitute an effective policy. 🙂

    From memory some of them did offer to put up asylum seekers free of charge.

    To truthful, the AS have been punished enough.

  22. Pegasus says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 7:02 pm

    Of course, if someone else, aka a Laborite, had posted those links about homelessness, the juvenile trivialisation of some of the most vulnerable human beings in our relatively wealthy society, would not occur.

    Way to go guys.

    Couldn’t you find anymore out of contaxt quotes from KB’s article to further misrepresent what he was saying?

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