Federal election preference flows

New figures from the AEC confirm the Coalition’s share of Hanson and Palmer preferences was approaching two-thirds, a dramatic increase on past form.

We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.

The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.

The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.

While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,440 comments on “Federal election preference flows”

Comments Page 17 of 29
1 … 16 17 18 … 29

  1. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has again vowed to stamp out violent extremism after an allegedly racially motivated shooting in the US

    All those extremists are in his sights – all demonstrators, the asylum seekers, the homeless and those who stand up for the poor. And those who refuse to have a go to get a go.

  2. all demonstrators, the asylum seekers, the homeless and those who stand up for the poor

    Which of those is the group that keeps picking up guns and killing people for not being white?

  3. citizen says: Monday, August 5, 2019 at 2:13 pm

    NBN fix involves a $20 billion write-down of the project that would hurt Morrison Government surplus goal

    After a series of roll-out miscalculations, what will be delivered on completion next year will be an expensive, sub-standard product incorporating a mix of retrograde technologies with higher running costs that, ultimately, will require a great deal more investment.

    **************************************************************

    The lost prophetic words of Tony Windsor :

    NBN. Do it once Do it right Do it with Fibre

  4. I recall reading recently that the dispersal of gun ownership in the US is declining but its intensity is increasing. That is, fewer people own guns but this who do own them have added to their arsenals. There is a majority in the US who do not own guns. They should be asked to exercise their numbers.

    Since it’s highly unlikely that a Constitutional amendment could pass, reform could concentrate on reducing the number, power and type of weapons that a person can own and on limiting the places where they can be held and used, on the trade in guns, ammunition and weapon accessories and on the prohibition of carrying weapons in public places.

    That said, across the border in Canada weapons are freely available, but there is no comparable history of mass shootings or of gun-related homicide and suicide. This should be studied further.

  5. Funny that 82% of the labor hating and LNP-enabling greens directed their preferences to Labor

    I’ll bet a more than 18% of labor voters preferenced the LNP above the greens.

    it’s almost as though some of the old labor right die-/blow- hards here don’t know what they are talking about.

  6. Some 15 years ago I knew of someone who armed himself with a home-made explosive device, held a woman as hostage, and then barricaded himself and the hostage in a motel room in Labrador, on the Goldie. The siege ended peacefully some twelve hours later but caused a lot of disruption to local commerce, traffic, and the hostage was injured albeit slightly.

    The matter was referred to the Mental Health Court (MHC) as a result of his schizophrenia. The question the court had to decide was whether the psychotic episode he experienced at the time of the siege was the result of his mental illness per se. The court (consisting of a Supreme Court judge and two psychiatrists) found against him on the basis that he had stopped taking his medication (Haloperidol) a week or so before the incident, resulting in a custodial sentence of 10 years, to serve 80% of his sentence due to a serious violent offence declaration. Couched in different terms, had he taken his medication, and still committed the crime, he would’ve been dealt with by the MHC (see M’Naghten rules).

    When it comes to what could be argued as less serious examples of mental illness – eg, clinical depression – as far as mitigation is concerned, such a condition does not rate highly – the criminal justice system not seeming to take mental illness as seriously as maybe it should. But, Alan Bond is a classic example of how some set out to manipulate the system.

  8. I did visit the NRA Museum in Virginia a few years ago. They have thousands of guns there on display and the Museum attendants are quite insane. I kept my opinions to myself as you never know. Worth a visit if you are interested in a macabre tour of the USA.

  9. Re NBN:
    “After a series of roll-out miscalculations, what will be delivered on completion next year will be an expensive, sub-standard product incorporating a mix of retrograde technologies with higher running costs that, ultimately, will require a great deal more investment.”

    And when it all hits the fan the Government will blame Labor and this will be mostly repeated without questioning in the mainstream media.


  10. sustainable future says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 2:29 pm

    Funny that 82% of the labor hating and LNP-enabling greens directed their preferences to Labor

    I’ll bet a more than 18% of labor voters preferenced the LNP above the greens.

    it’s almost as though some of the old labor right die-/blow- hards here don’t know what they are talking about.

    I wonder how many of those that vote Greens one would do so if they realized they are not voting for an environmental party, they are giving $2+ public funding to a group devoted to the destruction of progressive politics in this country. The Greens, a Liberal front for the destruction of Labor.

  11. frednk

    I wonder how many of those that vote Labor one would do so if they realized they are not voting for a worker friendly party, they are giving $2+ public funding to a group devoted to the destruction of progressive politics in this country. Labor, a Liberal front for the destruction of Greens.

    (Don’t get too upset by my tongue-in-cheek riff off your repetitive nonsense.)

  12. Pegasus

    One big difference; the Greens do little else, they write grade words that mean nothing because they are impotent. All they offer is their core policy, the destruction of Labor.

    For all there faults ( nothing is perfect) Labor offer something other than just contempt for the 21st century DLP. Labor have done things; for example did the Greens stop the damming of the Franklin, no it was Labor. They could do it because that was in times before the Greens developed into what they are now, a Liberal front.

  13. frednk

    As an ex-young Liberal, you have morphed into a mouthpiece for the Coalition. Your view of the Greens is in lockstep with both Labor and the Coalition.

    Long may the political duopoly and democracy prosper!

  14. No one needs a 100 round mag, Even for deer hunting. A relative that lives on his property in central Victoria will often go out to hunting deer or rabbits as his property backed onto the high country. He never takes more than twenty or thirty rounds, and he will often come home with unused rounds because he is selective with what he hunts like he wont shoot a female deer with a young fawn, and he makes the point that if you over shoot, the animals come to know where you are and they will avoid you.

  15. Victorian state government is attempting to subvert local democracy

    Ben Raue – Victorian government vs local democracy

    http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38911

    In the wake of the federal election you may have missed a story about how the Victorian government is planning to change the way that Victorian local councils are elected, something which will be disastrous for local democracy and has come completely out of the blue.
    :::
    Below the fold I will run through the reasons why this is such a bad idea….
    :::
    This proposal has largely come out of the blue. It has happened at the same time as Queensland Labor is making baby steps towards proportional representation in local council elections and is in direct opposition to the government’s promise to “support diverse representation” during the 2018 election campaign.

  16. Pegasus
    You are a mouthpice for a party that will achieve nothing other than keeping the Liberals in power.

    None of those things you profess to believe in will be advanced by your continual attacks on Labor.

    Have a serious look at the Franklin river outcome. It was achieved by Labor; if predates the Greens and yet is the Greens greatest achievement.

    The Greens have offered nothing other than less Labor years for the Liberals to unwind Labor’s achievements, a list that is long despite the efforts of the Greens.

  19. sprocket_ @ #816 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 3:22 pm

    Peg is projecting muchly

    You’ve got to laugh at it, it’s just the height of banality. Especially when one of their own has this on their resume:

    After graduation, he worked for Merrill Lynch in New York and Melbourne, serving as Vice-President from 1994 to 1998. In 1995 he was reported as working for Perth Mining stockbroker Saw James which is clearly an interesting position given the Greens position on Mining. He then worked in international sales for Deutsche Bank from 1998 to 2004.

    It has been reported that he proposed a national discussion regarding the future of penalty rates which he expanded on in an adjournment speech saying, “I think the big issue is not that penalty rates should be paid—they should, but by whom? Effectively, I do not think small businesses should be the ones paying; rather, consumers should be paying for them.”

    A very ‘Young Liberal’ resume and position on Penalty Rates, if ever I saw one.

  21. frednk and sprocket

    The wailing, gnashing of teeth and rending of garments, all the while running the line “It’s all the fault of those dastardly Greens why Labor has been denied the reins of power”, is a sad sight to behold.

    Simultaneously the line is run the Greens are irrelevant.

    But, but, the Greens are so mighty and powerful they can thwart Labor’s self-entitled belief they should be the only party in power forever for the good of the nation.

    Logic fail there, people.

  22. I wonder how many of those that vote Greens one would do so if they realized they are not voting for an environmental party, they are giving $2+ public funding to a group devoted to the destruction of progressive politics in this country.

    I’m going to guess that pretty much all of them still would, because despite all the over-the-top hyperbole and hysterics that last assertion has never actually been established in fact (or if it has, kindly link to the section of the Greens manifesto which sets that out as the goal of the party).

    But how many Greens voters will keep preferencing Labor if Labor people keep slagging them as stealth Liberal supporters? Could easily be something less than the ~80% that do it now.

    “You treated me like a monster Liberal voter, so that’s what I’ve become”, etc., etc..

  23. nath
    The Liberal party has moved a long way in 40 years. Fraser had good reason to leave.

    In the 40 years, in my view Labor has achieved a lot to be proud of, there has been mistakes, but that happen when you are the first to try things.

    In my view you judge parties by their action not their words, the Liberal have left a path of destruction, the Green no path at all.

    As we are debating the issue, here is you big chance, what have the Greens actually achieved?

  24. Villification

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-05/inner-west-councillor-vilified-gay-man-over-rainbow-flag/11384062

    A former deputy mayor of a Sydney council vilified a gay neighbour during a row about a rainbow flag that she allegedly declared “as offensive as the flag of ISIS”, a tribunal has found.

    The Civil and Administrative Tribunal upheld a complaint against Julie Passas, a Liberal Councillor of Sydney’s Inner West Council, over the dispute that arose on November 15, 2017, the day that the same-sex marriage vote result was announced.

  25. “I wonder how many of those that vote Greens one would do so if they realized they are not voting for an environmental party, they are giving $2+ public funding to a group devoted to the destruction of progressive politics in this country. The Greens, a Liberal front for the destruction of Labor.”

    and the delusion just keeps coming……

    at present, Albo’s Labor is about as progressive as Howard in his first term and not quite as progressive as the NSW or SA state governments. I was considering quitting the greens and re-joining labor under the shorten agenda. Now, I think the greens will poll 12-15% before very long and the greens and progressive indies will take several inner city labor and lib seats. Labor/Albo will destroy themselves if they follow the mini-scomo approach they seem to think they need to adopt.

  26. Greens biggest achievement: Voting against Malaysian solution therefore condemning refugees to Manus forever.

  28. ar

    As I said in my last post, you should judge a party by it’s action. Definitely not by the grand words developed in secret ( in the case of the Greens and the Liberals) and posted.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    “I think the big issue is not that penalty rates should be paid—they should, but by whom? Effectively, I do not think small businesses should be the ones paying; rather, consumers should be paying for them.”
    ——————————————————
    For a banker, he doesn’t seem to understand what he is talking about, of course the consumer pays, its called pricing.

  30. Peg,

    I think you’re the one projecting.

    Is anyone suggesting it’s ALL the Greens’ fault?

    The point is, why focus on what is effectively a factional squabble on the Left of politics, when the Right, the true enemy, is left to do what they want with little attention?

  31. In my view you judge parties by their action not their words

    Indeed. That’s why I eschew both major parties who often vote together for years to stymie real progressive change.

    Labor’s mini-me Coalition trajectory under the leadership of Albanese might well appeal to the swinging aspirationals in the outer suburbs and regional areas who are currently voting Hanson, UAP or Coalition.

    Or not. Why vote for sham-lite when you can get the real conservative deal.

    The blowback against Labor in the inner city electorates could well be considerable but then I guess the attitude from its brains trust is who cares.

  34. frednk
    says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 3:36 pm
    nath
    The Liberal party has moved a long way in 40 years. Fraser had good reason to leave.
    ___________________________________
    Um. So you were all good with the Liberals in the 70s when they helped engineer the removal of an elected government and abolished Whitlam’s medicare (medibank) and all the social democratic initiatives that Whitlam undertook but now think today’s liberals are beyond the pale?

  35. Peg
    Labor’s mini-me Coalition trajectory under the leadership of Albanese might well appeal to the swinging aspirationals in the outer suburbs and regional areas who are currently voting Hanson, UAP or Coalition.
    —————————————-
    I don’t see this at all. Albo knows a thing or two about holding onto inner city electorate against the Greens.

    I predict Albo wont lose any seats to the Greens in 2021/22, for two reasons.
    1) The Greens do best when the ALP is the government.
    2) The Greens need a special issue to boost support. At this stage I cannot see such an issue, and the next election will be fought on the economy, not a strong suite for the Greens.

  36. Pegasus says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 3:40 pm

    Dr Kevin Bonham – 2019 House of Reps Figures Finalised

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/08/2019-house-of-reps-figures-finalised.html

    So the Greens’ decision to preference Labor may have saved as many as three Labor seats at this election.

    Once again you do Kevin a major disservice by picking out one sentence from a larger considered article.

    The quote you chose expresses both possibility and doubt, with the preceding paragraphs focusing on Green voters and how they allocated their preferences. There is nothing about the Greens as a Party.

    But why should we expect anything different from you?

  38. Just a minute or two ago I saw a brief extract of a Morrison presser and I was shocked (well, maybe) to realise that for at least a split second, he was lost for words.

  39. Barney in Makassar @ #835 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 4:06 pm

    Pegasus says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 3:40 pm

    Dr Kevin Bonham – 2019 House of Reps Figures Finalised

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/08/2019-house-of-reps-figures-finalised.html

    So the Greens’ decision to preference Labor may have saved as many as three Labor seats at this election.

    Once again you do Kevin a major disservice by picking out one sentence from a larger considered article.

    The quote you chose expresses both possibility and doubt, with the preceding paragraphs focusing on Green voters and how they allocated their preferences. There is nothing about the Greens as a Party.

    But why should we expect anything different from you?

    +1

  40. If ScoMo doesn’t have foreign relations as his top subject, it suggests to me that he is most likely to agree with Trump.

  41. Pegasus says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 3:52 pm

    BinM

    We immediately part company as I don’t consider Labor is a party of the left.

    So the Left of politics in Australia has less than 15% support¿

    No wonder you’re pushing shit uphill!

    You are an idiot!

  42. Dan

    The ASX crashing is a Big Yuan – that is, the crash is caused by the plummeting Chinese currency.

    Trump is winning the trade war bigly.

  43. This old chestnut ALWAYS gets dragged out:

    Now, I think the greens will poll 12-15% before very long and the greens and progressive indies will take several inner city labor and lib seats.

    Well, if we’re going to quote Dr Bonham as an expert witness, let’s see what he has to say as an extrapolation of The Greens vote from the polls post-election:

    So although Essential did not publish voting intention results as such, it appears that a sample that was representative on gender and only very slightly (<2%) skewed to mid-age-range voters compared with younger voters comes out at 40.8% Coalition, 34.6% Labor, 9.6% Green and 15.0% other – very similar to the election result – after reallocating 12.2% unsure.

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/07/poll-roundup-newspolls-back-but-should.html

    🙂

  44. Barney in Makassar @ #840 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 4:11 pm

    Pegasus says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 3:52 pm

    BinM

    We immediately part company as I don’t consider Labor is a party of the left.

    So the Left of politics in Australia has less than 15% support¿

    No wonder you’re pushing shit uphill!

    You are an idiot!

    You are being too generous, Barney. It’s 9.6% support. 😀

  45. nath @ #805 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 2:45 pm

    I did visit the NRA Museum in Virginia a few years ago. They have thousands of guns there on display and the Museum attendants are quite insane. I kept my opinions to myself as you never know. Worth a visit if you are interested in a macabre tour of the USA.

    I wonder what the weapon of choice was for blasting wombats 100 yrs ago …?

  46. sprocket_ @ #841 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 4:12 pm

    Dan

    The ASX crashing is a Big Yuan – that is, the crash is caused by the plummeting Chinese currency.

    Trump is winning the trade war bigly.

    Sorry, sprocket, have to disagree with you there:

    Overshadowed by Donald Trump’s escalation of his trade conflict with China last week was the release of US trade data that shows, again, that his trade wars aren’t working.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/trump-is-escalating-a-trade-war-he-isn-t-winning-20190805-p52dxf.html

  50. Barney in Makassar @ #838 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 4:11 pm

    Pegasus says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 3:52 pm

    BinM

    We immediately part company as I don’t consider Labor is a party of the left.

    So the Left of politics in Australia has less than 15% support¿

    No wonder you’re pushing shit uphill!

    You are an idiot!

    We have a hard right coalition Govt – and a centre-right Labor party.

    Sadly, many Labor partisans have stuck with the party despite its shift to the centre-right.

Comments Page 17 of 29
1 … 16 17 18 … 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *