Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.
To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.
Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.
Elsewhere in poll-dom:
• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.
• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.
poroti, Tricot
Ten years ago dairy was booming in Australia.
But it was, and is, dominated by global commodity markets which are slightly on the glut side of supply ATM. Which is the main reason why dairy is a bummer in Oz as we post.
The other two main reasons are the worst ever drought and better ROI for your irrigation water from things like er… well I had better not mention from what or the we will back to the the C*tt*n W*r and I certainly don’t fell like winning that War twice.
Welcome to the third world. Self interest, sputtering economy, a dishonest and inaccurate MSM, underemployment, great divide between rich and poor, lack off transparency, inflated house building costs and value, unregulated corporate bodies, denial of climate change, water insecurity, bedrangled power generation, gross environmental degradation, constant political manuevers, and now the uncertainty.
And we have a dodgy advertising PM and an even more dodgy Cabinet and extensive corporate direction.
No one except the black economy and the desperates hoping for a coal mine and coal fuelled power generation operation are laughing now.
The whinge will be deafening. And everyone else at fault.
Briefly, you’re on the mark!
Socrates says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 5:56 pm
…
True but my point was, that those contracts have been well managed.
….
True; it is pretty amazing to find that in a billion dollar haystack.
It is the way it is, the little Green pony is always there to help a Liberal campaign; rational thought is not part of the process.
Scott Ludlam is, I believe, one of the Greens who wants to totally gut the ADF.
Talk about national suicide!
I believe that the Greens’ model for a defence force is that of Iceland.
They don’t have a defence force in Iceland.
Boerwar @ #401 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 6:02 pm
You certainly can’t afford another victory like that, Boerwar.
Was Morrison one of the 30 like-minded specially invited by Dutton to a $30 a head lunch in the Monkey Pod Room?
p, Tri
Fortunately they have found a new use for dairy tankers in New South Wales – carting water to townspeople. I feel a song coming on…
‘There’s nothing so lonesome, morbid or drear
As a town with no water…’
Hmmm… needs work.
If you have 16 minutes, here is a neat look, with some lovely graphics, at Elon Musk’s Space X (private company) Starlink programme starting off in the race for Global Internet. The stakes are huge.
The first 60 Starlink satellites of up to 12,000 (enough to alter the night sky) have already been deployed in a single low orbit deployment.
(nb This is a commercial upload, with some marketing at the end.)
https://youtu.be/giQ8xEWjnBs
Bucephalus
So 1946 to 1970 is the new period of interest. “Been no global warming since the 1998” gone by the wayside? New highs killed that one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCSnKNoyWtw&feature=youtu.be
Come on mate if your going to ignore reality go all the way. Between 1880 and 1910 the average global temperature fell 0.3 degrees, since 1980 it has only risen 0.3 degrees, what is your problem?
Much more confusing.
Will the Bolt standard “The antarctic sea ice is expanding” be heard again?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WD2GqO1JE78
BW…………..whatever, the economics is against actually producing stuff like milk, butter and other milk products. Where are all the butter factories in Gippsland these days???? All closed, that is where. Nothing to do with drought………..Milking 60 cows twice a day – once at 4 am and the other at 5 pm 365 days a year for a selling price of a dollar a litre in Coles/Woolies is not quite peasantry, but close to it. The fact that there are still 200 or so dairy farms is WA says more about human endurance than common sense.
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 12:39 pm
briefly says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 12:23 pm
“The latter is based on empirical reality.”
Incorrect. The climate has always been changing. The Earth is currently in a warming phase. The warming is an empirical reality. It is a theory that it is driven by human activity.
This is an entirely disingenuous interpretation. Entirely disingenuous. The observed increase in the temperatures of the earth’s land and sea surfaces are explicable by the physics and chemistry involved in the release of GHGs into the atmosphere. The absolute levels of temperature, the changes in the temperature and the extent and rate of acceleration in the change in temperatures are all explicable. The explanations and the deductions that arise from them are all testable against data. They are tested.
There is no other alternative explanation that has been posited. There are only fraudulent appeals to non-existent imaginary alternatives.
The various sets of knowledge that comprise our understanding of climate change account not only for variations in temperature, they also predict the effects this has had, is having and will have on meteorological and oceanographic dynamics, on the distribution of water and heat across the earth’s surface and on the earth’s zoology….among other things.
The denialism is also explicable. Morons and/or paid liars maintain a studied denialism. If we exclude the morons, denialists are simply professionally dishonest. They are corrupt.
Jeez, didn’t bucephalus disappear quickly when his “April 8 1977 Time cover” was proven to be a hoax?
Who are these people?
Here’s the plan. Will dig up and burn all the coal. Then we decide what to do next.
I thought Julie Bishop was going to do a high end talk show.
1 July – Bishop
“But in a tweet responding to WAtoday’s report, Screentime producer Andrew Garrick said the company had approached Ms Bishop about the project, but “she wasn’t on board yet”.”
Anyway, it’s great to see so many posting of late – the black dog of May 18 lifting, so it seems; and, poor Bucephalus – I knew him/her so well.
Paid trolls / liars have been a thing since before social media, even before the internet became a big thing.
In the 90s, newspapers ran phone-in polls. In the early days of news sites on the internet, they had web polls. Typically these gleaned a few hundred responses, but there were a few issues where the responses were in the thousands. The big trigger issues were tobacco and guns, and strangely enough the results always greatly favoured the interests that made money from them. Later they were joined by global warming.
‘Tricot says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 6:38 pm
BW…………..whatever, the economics is against actually producing stuff like milk, butter and other milk products. Where are all the butter factories in Gippsland these days???? All closed, that is where. Nothing to do with drought………..Milking 60 cows twice a day – once at 4 am and the other at 5 pm 365 days a year for a selling price of a dollar a litre in Coles/Woolies is not quite peasantry, but close to it. The fact that there are still 200 or so dairy farms is WA says more about human endurance than common sense.’
It would be nearly fifty years since people could live off a 60 cow herd. And it would be about the same time since your small country town butter factory did its stuff.
500-1000 cow dairy herds are not uncommon now. They are massively high tech affairs these days. Ten years ago you would have been making, literally, millions. With the global commodity glut they are struggling and if you have not got your capital management right, you are in strife.
The ‘economics’ work well when there is a global shortage. Like all farm commodities it is boom and bust stuff.
Lowe’s right: what more can monetary policy achieve?
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-calls-on-government-to-do-more-to-boost-economy-20190702-p523dy.html
And, even if the rounds of tax cuts pass, given the uncertainty of the economy under the stewardship of the Tories for the past six years, most, I think, will pay down debt.
An accurate gauge of how the economy’s going is the number of businesses closing in the retail shopping centre sector, with no amount of fancy signs claiming the contrary fooling anyone.
Maybe it’s a good time to be in opposition!
frednk says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 6:34 pm
Will the Bolt standard “The antarctic sea ice is expanding” be heard again?
Possibly. The graph (depending on when you start it) was definitely of an increasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent. The last couple of max and min extents are startling in the sense that the amplitude in both directions (but particularly in the direction of the mins) has increased by some sort of wow factor. But, statistically, Bolt is right and the last couple of years may be an aberration. I don’t know. I could be misinterpreting the data. Again.
I made a decision many years ago never to engage with AGW denialists. I haven’t once regretted my decision.
MD
‘Maybe it’s a good time to be in opposition!’
It is never a good time to be in opposition.
a r @ #356 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 4:35 pm
ar,
I advised you to look up how a nuclear (and in fact, any other steam turbine power plant) works. Its called the Rankine cycle. The cooling is needed to recondense the boiler water, so that you can evaporate it again in the boiler. In Australia we use lakes (as at Liddell and Vales Point and Eraring) or evaporative coolers (those big concrete things with steam coming out the top!) as at Bayswater. The French, for some of their plants, both coal and nuclear, use a part of a river flow, pumping it into the plant, and releasing it back into the river.
Both your and Bumsyphilis’ comments are inane, showing extraordinary ignorance. The idea that river water would be pumped into a nuclear reactor is aaarrrgh! You can read! Look it up.
ps Its not in the bible. Middle eastern goat herders used divine intervention, and later on, oxen.
Boerwar @ #421 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 7:51 pm
You think.
Pretty sure Labor likes the view from the opposition benches.
Labor; born to be ruled.
The pictures today of Scrotty shaking Bill Shorten’s hand is emblematic of the powerful psychological dominance the Liberal party has over Labor.
Sad.
‘mundo says:
Labor; born to be ruled.’
That would be the Greens… at their current rate of progress they will form government in the 2175 federal election.
Boerwar @ #427 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 8:10 pm
That’s right, the Greens are the enemy.
I can see Labor’s 2022 loss from here.
It’s the Greens stupid.
Yep, that;ll do it.
Aw, Jiminny Crickets that Liberal Party won again.
Bloody Greens.
Fuckwit.
Get a grip.
Find me a Labor voter who doesn’t preference the Greens over the Liberal party.
The House is debating the Labor amendments to the Taxation Amendment (More Money for Liberal Mates) Bill 2019 and lo and behold, Adam Bandt is voting with the Liberals.
Andrew Wilkie, perhaps remembering his bastardisation whilst at Duntroon, and subsequent dog acts by JWH towards his family, is the only Independent voting with Labor.
If you like your Butterfly geishas making gentle angelic entrances through swaying long grasses and bamboo groves, this may raise an eyebrow.
Graeme Murphy’s latest take for OA sees the impoverished 15 yr old arrive by descent into the bondage club of her employ.
The veneer of sentimentalism which somehow made it all vaguely irrelevant gives way to legitimate questions about the abuse of women in theatre, and its portrayal, if at all.
I thought the Antarctic ice coverage wasn’t changing much but the Arctic was definitely going down over the last thirty years.
Boerwar @ #427 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 6:10 pm
At Labor’s rate of growth the ALP will be a distant memory by the 2067 election.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 5:56 pm
frednk @ #387 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 5:54 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 5:47 pm
….
Lib-Lab at it again… *sigh*
Congratulations Rex. The Little Green pony is down there pulling hard, side by side the Liberal horse.
It’s time Labor stopped being a faux opposition.
______________________________
Could not agree more Rex. A lot of the Labor apparat is whipped and beaten. A thorough going purge is in order to get the ALP battle ready. My belief is Albo will get rid of the time servers , malingerers, opportunists and defeatists in the Federal ALP parliamentary party.
The reality is by the 2022 election, the ALP Shadow Cabinet with about 6 exceptions out of 23 will be eligible for early retirement. Says it all really!
Lars, do you think Minister Keenan’s intervention yesterday was helpful for Morrison?
Or were his reported comments inaccaurate?
sprocket_ @ #429 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 6:22 pm
LOL!
Fess, Albo actually commended Bandt for voting with the Liberals, saying wtte that ‘it was in line with his principles’.
My dear sprocket,
You may not have heard whilst touring the esoterica of Europe on your generous public pension but Keenan is no longer a Minister.
I don’t think anybody cares about Savva’s book! Does anybody read the books which pass for political analysis in this country?
With the exception of Albo where is the mongrel in Labor? Albo’s speech this evening was a great Labor speech. Sadly the people standing behind him are rather lame.
Lars, who would you say is making more money?
Angus Taylor as a Minister, with family members and rowing mates being showered with taxpayers money?
Or Christopher Pyne with his new role with Ernst and Young opening doors for military weapon suppliers, eager to do business with the Australian Government?
sprocket:
Props to Albo.
Dio
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-climate-antarctic-sea-ice-extent
‘Dan Gulberry says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 8:34 pm
Boerwar @ #427 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 6:10 pm
at their current rate of progress they will form government in the 2175 federal election.
At Labor’s rate of growth the ALP will be a distant memory by the 2067 election.’
The Greens and the Coalition Wet Dream: Labor destroyed.
Thats quite a claim to make about an individual sprocket. I have no idea.
I choose not to participate in character assassination.
Having said that the role of money/influence in politics on both sides is malignant and should be stopped as much as is possible. I don’t see that happening until there is political reform in this country.
Boerwar @ #443 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 6:54 pm
Labor need to do something to reverse the trend away from them. A primary vote of 33.34% is not a good thing.
Over the next two years (leaving a year in the run up to the next election), Labor needs to articulate exactly what it stands for.
Being for coal in Queensland and against it in Victoria is not going to do it. Being opposed to ISDS clauses in trade deals, but voting for them in the TPP isn’t going to do it either.
Lars, no claims being made, simply sharing what is in the public domain – even in Rupert’s organs.
Would you say that Julie Bishop taking a seat on the board of Palladium? She did take the opportunity for a backhander to Pyne so quickly going from Defence Minister to shill for the international arms trade. This from the AFR today…
“Despite its private status, Palladium is deeply involved with governments and also familiar with Bishop given its role in implementing many Australia’s foreign aid projects over decades. That’s even though she is careful to point out all Australia’s foreign aid contracts and tenders are done at arm’s length from the foreign minister and office while she has never been a minister in the Morrison government anyway.
“I am just pointing that out in the light of recent [pause] commentary,” she says firmly. “I am obviously aware of the obligations of the ministerial guidelines and I am entirely confident that I am and will remain compliant with them.”
This is an obvious reference to former defence minister Christopher Pyne swapping so quickly to being an EY adviser on defence issues.”
Lars, I wonder whether ex-Minister Keenan (my mistake), has crueled his chances of a hefty board seat on some blue chip company with his apparent uncalled slur on the character of Morrison, calling him ‘an absolute arsehole’.
And yes, Nikki Savva as you point out is a shill for the Liberals, though not the now dominant faction.
Yabba @ #424 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 7:55 pm
Yes, and afaict it still works with warmer cooling water; with the caveat that your outlet temperature’s not going to be less than your cooling water temperature. You can condense the same volume of steam with warmer cooling water by either pumping more water or accepting an increased outlet temperature. For temperatures within reason, anyways. 95C no, 45C probably fine.
Lars, it’s somewhat disingenuous to say
‘ My belief is Albo will get rid of the time servers , malingerers, opportunists and defeatists in the Federal ALP parliamentary party’ in one post, and follow it up with..
‘I choose not to participate in character assassination.’ in your next post.
@mikehilliard
I believe the same type of people who approve of Scott Morrison’s performance as Prime Minister, are those in Britain who think Boris Johnson would make a great Prime Minister. They are the types to be easily brainwashed by propaganda from media outlets supporting these politicians.