Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.
To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.
Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.
Elsewhere in poll-dom:
• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.
• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.
Meanwhile interest rates are now at an all-time low of 1.0%.
“Interest rates will always be lower under a Coalition government…”
Dan Gulberry @ #290 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 2:59 pm
I’m patiently waiting for him to start on the Sun Spot Theory of Global Warming. 🙂
a r @ #224 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 1:04 pm
Because the water is for cooling, and the rate at which heat flows into the cooling water is directly proportional to the temperature difference between the source and destination (cooling water) of the heat energy. See if you can understand the idea that water at 95 C is somewhat less able to cool (ie accept heat energy) than water at 5 C. I will not go into an explanation of how a nuclear power station works, just google it.
Sometimes I despair at the utter inability to think, and lack of basic scientific knowledge displayed by contributors to this blog.
Back to just general despair.
Gosh, our economy is going so well …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-02/rba-cuts-rates-to-a-new-low-of-1pc/11270464
I must remember to write a letter of thanks to Mr Morrison et al.
Like the Energizer Bunny, ScoMo the marketer just keeps on marketing.
…
lizzie @ #305 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 3:16 pm
It is just so embarrasing to be an Australian these days … 🙁
Police have arrested three men following a number of anti-terror raids in Sydney this morning.
The combined national police operation, which involved the raiding of a number of properties across Sydney, has led to the foiling of an alleged terror plot.
The NSW Joint Counter Terrorism Team (JCTT) conducted raids in Sydney on Tuesday overseen by the AFP.
Police were targeting a group of people they allege support the Islamic State terrorist group.
Three men, aged 20, 23 and 30 have been arrested and are expected to be charged with terror related offences.
Police executed six search warrants across suburbs in western Sydney this morning.
The raids took place across a number of suburbs including Greenacre, Green Valley, Canada Bay, Toongabbie, Chester Hill and Ingleburn, according to reports.
A combined National Police Operation has foiled an alleged terror plot in Sydney, with 3 arrested this morning.
AFP Assistant Commissioner Ian McCartney revealed the men were allegedly planning to attack multiple locations.
“We will say that they had a number of targets, including police stations, defence establishments, embassies and councils, courts and churches,” Assistant Commissioner McCartney said
I am uncompmfortable with the nepotism and the apprent lack of expertise in Trump and his family…. yet I do not have a problem with such ‘meetings’ being disrupted in this way. The extravagance of flying, entertaining, and ensuring security of so called leaders and experts to these regular meetings where nothing gets done but expensive wine is drunk and elitists get to chat about how important they are and pretend they are serious about solving problems when all they really care about is their own jobs and status.
The system is broke. Rome burns while these peeps dress up and play their violins on the public purse.
Lizzie,
Yes, thanks.
Moving to Oz means I’m away from it all .
Qasar
I do hope our PM doesn’t let you down, then. 🙂
Player One
They have no sense of dignity or respect.
I would have preferred a duly elected barmaid to have been annoying Lagarde at that shindig.
Repeat ad nauseam. Poor GG, having to read this repetitive slog.
There used to be some fancy names attaching to GST bills or other tax bills around 2000 as I recall it
I think the automatic word production is making a few errors. Motorsport?
The Four Legs Good Two Legs Bad National Security Bill.
The How Good is This Bill.
The Where the Hell Are You Economy Bill… oh, wait…
Brucephalus
The following is but just one example of the substantial bullshit you have posted today.
You said WTTE “ there is no legal definition of ‘hate’ “
If you are a lawyer you would know that in statutes, unless defined otherwise by the statute, words are given their ordinary meaning.
In court cases, the meaning of words is the meaning the arbiters of fact (ie the jury, or in judge only cases the judge) give them.
So really, I think you are the only PBer who like the Folau mob and Eric Abetz’s ilk have a problem in understanding the meaning of “hate”.
A jury selected in the usual way will usually have no problem unless a loudmouth religious nutter or someone like you is empaneled.
REVEALED: Maddow details all scientific advancements that Trump is trying to hide from Americans
MSNBC anchor Rachel Maddow on Monday scolded the Trump administration for stopping the promotion of government-funded research done.
“The Trump administration has refused to publicize dozens of government-funded studies that carry warnings about the effects of climate change, defying a longstanding practice of touting such findings by the Agriculture Department’s acclaimed in-house scientists,” Politico reported.
“The studies range from a groundbreaking discovery that rice loses vitamins in a carbon-rich environment — a potentially serious health concern for the 600 million people world-wide whose diet consists mostly of rice — to a finding that climate change could exacerbate allergy seasons to a warning to farmers about the reduction in quality of grasses important for raising cattle,” Politico concluded.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/revealed-maddow-details-all-scientific-advancements-that-trump-is-trying-to-hide-from-americans/
Politico – Agriculture Department buries studies showing dangers of climate change
The Trump administration has stopped promoting government-funded research into how higher temperatures can damage crops and pose health risks.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/23/agriculture-department-climate-change-1376413
If you took out the words strong and stronger the GG would have saved 5 minutes reading time.
Goodness me, the power of the Greens after 27 years was on display today.
McKim demonstrated Greens Power getting 10 votes for his tilt at the Senate President.
I hadn’t realized that McKim has a touch of the old monomania.
Why the bloody Hell dont we have Bill
So all those on fixed income are going to be really happy with RBA cutting interest rates again.
When interest rates get this low it has little or no impact. Except of course to the property market which is already overvalued.
We are cooked as an economy and the government has no idea what to do.
Bushfire Bill @ #301 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 3:14 pm
I often think that this is exactly what Neoliberal governments want. Low interest rates fuel a housing boom when otherwise the sector may be in the doldrums as a more natural economic cycle occurs, plus it encourages people not to save and to engage in more speculative ways of making money, or just to spend what they have.
‘kirky says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 3:38 pm
So all those on fixed income are going to be really happy with RBA cutting interest rates again. ‘
That would include a whole lot of elderly dolts who shat their electoral pants because the retirees tax was coming to get them. Plus the death tax. Plus the Chinese invasion. Plus electric utes.
Schadenfreude is such sweet fun.
One thing is turning out to be true. Large swathes of NSW and QLD are being smashed by the ongoing drought.
It always rains more under Labor and Watt’s Up With That?
Boerwar @ #316 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 3:37 pm
Well, it’s only natural these days for Labor to support a Liberal member before a Green member.
The major EDF problem with hot water is that the hot water goes back into the rivers and cooks the biodiversity therein.
Boerwar
In the ye olde days i would have felt sorry for the farmers. Now I look forward to seeing them doss down in the bed they have made for themselves.
Lots of high-sounding words, which I guarantee will be chopped into paragraphs and used for replies from bureaucrats and by pollies at Question Time for the next three years.
Not bad
SOCIAL SECURITY AND VETERANS’ ENTITLEMENTS LEGISLATION AMENDMENT (ONE-OFF PAYMENTS TO INCREASE ASSISTANCE FOR OLDER AUSTRALIANS AND CARERS AND OTHER MEASURES) ACT 2006
Police have arrested three men following a number of anti-terror raids in Sydney this morning.
They should just get the local mullah to phone the AFP and tell them it’s OK, their religion tells them they have to do it.
Serious question: if your religion tells you that you have to break the law (it may not be “commit murder”, but might be say, refusal to join the army, or refusal to pay tax, or refusal to vote) what’s your defence?
Trump Says Tanks Will Be on Display in Washington for July 4
WASHINGTON — President Trump said on Monday that the Pentagon would put military tanks on display on Thursday in Washington as part of his plans to turn the annual Fourth of July celebration in the nation’s capital into a salute to the country’s military prowess.
Mr. Trump said that “brand-new Abrams tanks” and “brand-new Sherman tanks” would be on display on Thursday.
( The M1 Abrams tank was used during the Persian Gulf war of 1991 and is still currently in use by the military. The M4 Sherman was used by the United States during World War II and the Korean War, and is no longer in active service. )
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/01/us/politics/trump-tanks-july-4th.html
Well worth listening to ABC RN Big Ideas
Interviewee: Peter Lewis, political and communication consultant; author
How the internet led to division, distraction and civic disengagement
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/how-the-internet-created-division,-distraction-and-disengagemen/11225692
Pegasus @ #332 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 3:58 pm
Did Boerwar get a mention ..?
A direct descendant of Jubilation T. Cornpone I do believe.
😇😇😇😇😇😇
Freedom!
“Katharine Murphy
Tim Wilson, being Tim Wilson
There is always a bit of interest when parliament opens whether the MPs swear on Bibles or take an affirmation. Victorian Liberal Tim Wilson has taken the whole process into new territory by taking his affirmation today while holding a copy of Milton Friedman’s Capitalism and Freedom.
Always best to start as you mean to continue.”
Peg
I heard another ‘chapter’ of the Peter Lewis Big Ideas series this morning, taken from his book, I think, which discussed the real corporate rulers of each Aus state (Mining, Gambling, Police, etc) which make politicians virtually insignificant. Very interesting in terms of the supposed influence of donations.
phoenixRED @ #335 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 3:54 pm
And you can bet, London to a brick, that Trumpkin will exaggerate the numbers that turn up.
Former defence strategist believes Australia should consider nuclear weapons
The sharp rise of China as the most powerful force in Asia should have Australia worried, a leading defence strategist has claimed.
China’s rise as the dominant power in Asia has experts spooked, and the author of a new book claims it’s time Australia considered arming itself with nuclear weapons.
ANU Professor Hugh White, a former defence strategist, argues in How to Defend Australia that Australia can no longer rely on the United State to protect against an attack by a major power.
“It’s made perfect sense for Australia not to contemplate nuclear weapons for the last 40 years because we’ve enjoyed a very high level of confidence in the American nuclear umbrella,” he told The Sydney Morning Herald.
“But America provided that umbrella because it secured its position as the primary power in Asia.
“If the chances of (maintaining) that position are much lower, then our circumstances will be very different … We have to ask ourselves, can we defend ourselves against a power like China?
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/former-defence-strategist-believes-australia-should-consider-nuclear-weapons/news-story/e58c9ad7f06425972869daca90b5565e
BB, perhaps naively, I believe and expect that you can do better than this.
Also well worth listening to is a series of programs hosted by Richard Aedy entitled ‘Who Runs This Place?’:
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/who-runs-this-place/
Peg
That’s the one I heard. Thanks for giving the correct name. 🙂
Ivanka Trump wants power, and laughing at her expense won’t stop her
There seems to be little question that the first daughter wants something. As soon as Donald Trump was elected president, she began to insert herself into her father’s political orbit, joining in meetings with a world leaders such as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Argentinian President Mauricio Macri during the transition.
We need to take what is being reported about Ivanka Trump’s presidential ambitions seriously. I dare say that if there were multiple reports of a Trump son musing about a presidential run, we would have long since done just that. It’s easy to ridicule the first daughter, but Ivanka Trump appears to be an all-but-unstoppable force, impervious to snubs, ridicule and setbacks – all traits that are mighty helpful for a presidential run. That’s the thing about social comedies: It’s the smug dowagers who end up answering to the upstarts.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/ivanka-trump-wants-power-and-laughing-at-her-expense-wont-stop-her-20190702-p523d9.html
lizzie
Peter Lewis – Webtopia: The Worldwide Wreck of Tech and How to Make the Net Work
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/04/we-must-rebuild-institutions-to-counter-the-tyranny-of-big-tech
Zed Seselja (sp?) thinks that legislation on religious protection will be accepted by ‘all Australians’ and will be good for the country. He can’t move outside the mantras he has learnt.
When the Coalition was in Opposition just over six years ago, shadow treasurer Joe Hockey said interest rates under Labor of 2.5 per cent were “beyond emergency levels”. Which would make the current one per cent the mark of a catastrophe.
Is it just me, or has Michael Pascoe moved substantially to the left in recent years?