Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.
To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.
Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.
Elsewhere in poll-dom:
• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.
• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.
https://johnmenadue.com/allan-patience-its-time-for-a-democratic-socialist-agenda-for-australia/
“Interest rates will always be lower under a Coalition government…”
Scomo to Liberal-voting retirees hoping to live off their savings interest: “So long suckers and thanks for the votes.”
Non-billionaire retirees who voted Liberal were suckers. Yet I find it hard to feel sorry for them. Anyone who thinks that an economy “enjoying” record low per capita growth in GDP and wages will not soon also see record low investment revenues is deluded. Workers unable to pay bills don’t go shopping. When sales fall so do businesses. So don’t be surprised to see a lot of shopping centre trusts struggling to stay afloat soon as well.
In economics as in war, “Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee.”
clem atlee
I think he must have, because I find myself very comfortable with his comments. 🙂
Poroti – a “me too” when it comes to some areas of farming.
These are the self-same people who cleared millions of acres of virgin bush – totally degrading the environment for a very long time (largely out of ignorance I would think), helped themselves to water which we do not have to grow crops we do not need or should let someone else produce, suck tax-payer funds to pay for fuel costs (none of which of course, goes into their private on road vehicles), and cry “save the farmer to save the nation” stuff at every bad weather outcome yet still flog bananas, say, at $11 a kilo when we could have imported (and saved ourselves $500 million or more on protection of these few producers) at the same time.
If it is good enough to sell a coal, iron ore and lots of other dirt, just to make a dollar, and virtually import everything else, why should the farmers be treated as special? Vale the car industry…………..not so long ago.
As it is, the farming community is shrinking even further. I doubt whether dairy farms will exist in WA much longer, South African fruit in tins sells for $2 locally, tastes better and is about half the price of the local (Victorian ) item.
Maybe we still have some kind of competitive advantage in grains, wool and wine but as far as I am concerned farmers are no more a “strategic industry than say, refining oil here…………………………… Tough, but if the conservatives want “hard economics” then they should cut the crap and cut the subsidies to this lot.
Tricot
Not complete ignorance. A while back I retrieved a number of old West Australian newspapers that had been under lino in a house.They were from 1950-1951. In one of them was a very large article by some professor telling the readers we need to stop the large scale clearing across the Wheatbelt due to environmental damage , especially salinity. Depressingly he pointed to earlier warnings from the 1930s with similar pleas. Pleas that went unheeded of course.
On the other hand the government had a part.I believe land dished out to servicemen post WWI had a stipulation regarding the need to clear the land if the ex serviceman was to keep it.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/sky-rail-racket-tradies-allegedly-renovate-boss-house-on-taxpayer-dollar-20190701-p522xo.html
Yabba @ #303 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 3:15 pm
As I see it that depends entirely upon what you’re trying to cool. If it’s say a CPU that’s around 100C then sure, 95C water is mostly useless. But if it’s something like a nuclear fuel rod that’s more like 2000C then then difference between 95C water and 5C water is basically nothing. Especially if you allow the water to flash to steam, and then continue dumping heat into the (pressurized, probably) steam.
Cooling is more about the relative temperature difference between the coolant and the thing you’re trying to cool. When the hot thing is really, really hot even boiling water works just fine as a coolant.
And of course in practice with the France situation we’re not talking about 95C versus 5C, but probably more like ~30C versus ~45C. I can’t see any plausible reason why you’d design a nuclear plant with components that are fine at ~30C but become inoperably hot or dangerously unstable at ~45C.
Bucephalus’s answer about regulatory limits on the temperature of water released back into the river made a lot more sense.
Tim Wilson is an egotistic motormouth who refuses to admit he has ever done anything unethical. (Karvelas unable to shut him up)
Pete and Dud on religion:
https://youtu.be/lL8_cfi-bCw
You can put two spins on any story. For example:
Crisis! Tradies stealing hundreds of thousands from billion dollar government rail project!
ttps://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/sky-rail-racket-tradies-allegedly-renovate-boss-house-on-taxpayer-dollar-20190701-p522xo.html
Or
Andrews government’s auditing system catches three separate tradies stealing from billion dollar government rail project.
The amount stolen ($1.4 million) is less than 1/1000th of the project total cost, which finished on time and budget. This is actually an excellent project delivery performance. If the Federal government caught every funding irregularity in its own projects with equal thoroughness, and prosecuted the guilty with equal impartiality, who knows how many billions we would save, not to mention which vacancies there would be in parliament?
The rate of heat transfer into water drops precipitously after it has changed phase to steam.
Pegasus @ #352 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 4:35 pm
Classic organised crime (mafia) behaviour.
The tv series ‘The Soprano’s” showed how this is done.
If proven I hope those responsible are prosecuted to an inch of their lives because it severly tarnishes the labour/union movement.
Poroti – we should leave all the dairy stuff to the Kiwis – they do it better than us and the butter-fat content of the milk is just so much higher.
I forgot to add, in my rant, about the the cray fishermen here in WA.
Worked in Dongara for awhile, and the only crayfish I saw was when some of the local fishermen invited us round for a beer. No one else could afford it.
Meanwhile, WA government seeks to protect some of the catch for the local market and these self-same lot scream blue murder about “socialising” fisheries. I can’t wait until the Chinese market (may) collapses and this selfish crew get burned. Absolutely no sympathy from me. In the meantime we can and do, eat (cheaper) prawns from either Thailand or other areas of SE Asia. What an irony……..
Of course, it was the ON Upper House member who stymied any effort to allow the bill to pass last year………….I think he has now quit the ON party. What a turkey and we paid the price.
How good are those interest rates!
caf
FWIW, the amount of heat required to convert each gram of water to steam (~2200 J) is much more than the energy required to raise the temperature of water from 5 to 95 decrees (~380 J).
The spread in dryland salinity in Western Australia was being directly attributed to land clearing back in the 1890’s, I believe.
They knew.
‘Tricot says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 5:02 pm
Poroti – we should leave all the dairy stuff to the Kiwis – they do it better than us and the butter-fat content of the milk is just so much higher.’
New Zealand has a major suite of growing environmental problems directly attributable to the increase in size of the dairy industry. The most significant of these are deteriorating surface and subsurface water quality.
Boewar
I have studied the history of dryland Salinity in WA and this ref is typically considered the starting point
Wood WE (1924) Increase of salt in soil and streams following the destruction of the native vegetation. Journal of the Royal Society of Western Australia 10, 35–47.
Was noted by railway engineers putting water into the steam engines. They noted an increase in scale inside the engines.
This is a pretty good summary
https://researchlibrary.agric.wa.gov.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1072&context=rmtr
I assume that one of the outcomes of this drought will be to increase the proportion of corporate to family farming in Australia.
These will increasingly be owned overseas because it is far more profitable to own them overseas than to own them in Australia.
This will also increasingly leave Australians to compete with cheap and cheated o/s labour hire agricultural workers.
Astrobleme
Thanks.
I have lost the reference. It was not scientific. It is anecdotal – from diaries and so on and so forth.
It was what locals noticed when they cleared their farms.
Boerwar
yeah for sure, Woods was acting on information collected over a number of years earlier. He’s credited with effectively saving the bush in the Perth Hills (the water catchments).
But the Govt ignored his advice otherwise… Too tempting to continue opening up land for grain and sheep.
I wasn’t suckered by Scomo Daggy Dad’s strong economy bullshit.
I voted Labor.
x3
They viciously undercut each other and cant stand each other to the extent they refuse to operate in even the loosest of cooperatives…. yet call themselves a close knit community.
What I dont get is that Ostrom showed that the commons is best managed and conserved at the local level. This clearly isnt the case in Australian farming and the only thing I can attribute it to is the shelving of the idea, through political ideology, that our resources are a commons. It can not be attributed to financial stress alone because many farmers doing it well are still brutal to the land.
And I would be careful putting the wine industry into the general farmer basket. Either due to a better moral compass or marketing purposes or purely the vagaries of the vine; wineries seem to be far more interested in incorporating native vegetation into the landscape.
Re WA, mate had a farm in Broomhill (wheat/sheep) which was cleared by his parents/grand-parents back in the day. He sold it as it was too small to make any money, the water table was rising and the salt content was rising too. He admitted that while they were “planting trees and having a hard look at drainage” the damage was likely to be unrepairable…………….And that was 10 years ago………………….
BW – I also take your point about NZ.
I am not informed at all about land degradation there.
What I do remember from uni is the economics of dairy farming in Oz was that butter fat content was all that mattered.
Point was made that dairy farming in Queensland would never rise about peasant level. The only place on the Oz mainland where dairy might make a go was either Gippsland or some parts of western Victoria.
A relative was once manager of the Tooralac Milk Factory in Toora, one of the wettest parts of Victoria.
No Tooralac company and not much left of Toora either these days.
Still waiting for someone from Labor to hold a press conference and ask when Mr Morrison is going to come clean on the state of the economy and level with the Australian public.
Anthony?
Jim?
Boys….are you on this..?
Come on, what would the Liberals do if the shoe was on the other foot….think now….come on……come…o…
…come on Jim, Anthony, we don’t just let things slide now, we act, we’re pro-active. The punters can’t work this stuff out for themselves.
No mercy.
Come on.
Push back!
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/doesn-t-pass-the-pub-test-wong-attacks-bishop-over-palladium-20190702-p523cw.html
:::
Simon – probably right about the wine industry………….However, little or no wine grapes now grown in the Swan Valley in Perth as most of the “wine” stuff has moved to the South-West. Thus, while there are eating grapes in Perth, the Valley is being swallowed up but the so-called “tourist industry” on the one hand, and suburbia almost taking over the land out in this part of Perth. It will not be long before all the “wineries” in the Swan Valley will be tokens of the former industry. I cannot speak for other wine growing areas of Oz. Seems to me that areas around Melbourne are on the up, while other areas not so much so. No climate change of course!
Mondo – Labor is suffering battle fatigue and putting themselves back together after the election. I have never seen a party just get up off the deck a few weeks after an election and immediately get their mojo back. I too want a bit of mongrel, but they have to pick their fights……………..
Yabba
..
Sometimes I despair at the utter inability to think, and lack of basic scientific knowledge displayed by contributors to this blog.
Back to just general despair.
Reading some of the comments does add weight to Briefley’s conclusion. “We are fucked”
mundo says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 5:36 pm
Still waiting for someone from Labor to hold a press conference and ask when Mr Morrison is going to come clean on the state of the economy and level with the Australian public.
And why is this not the responsibility of the little Green pony?
September 2018:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/19/labor-and-coalition-combine-to-vote-down-stricter-lobbying-rules
Will Patrick’s bill be voted down by both major parties?
Socrates
We havn’t been told f it was cost plus contact or a tendered price. If the latter it is a company issue.
Pegasus @ #380 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 5:45 pm
Lib-Lab at it again… *sigh*
Have times changed, or not?
2013:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-07/milne-ferguson-lobbying-code/4997304
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 5:45 pm
September 2018:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/19/labor-and-coalition-combine-to-vote-down-stricter-lobbying-rules
….
Will Patrick’s bill be voted down by both major parties?
Oh I see why it all falls to Labor, the little Green pony is too busy making up stunts to drag down Labor to be worried about the mess being created by the Liberals.
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 5:47 pm
Have times changed, or not?
No, the little Green ponies only interest is attacking Labor.
frednk @ #385 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 5:51 pm
The dirty backroom Lib-Lab deals need to be exposed.
They happen far too often.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 5:47 pm
….
Lib-Lab at it again… *sigh*
Congratulations Rex. The Little Green pony is down there pulling hard, side by side the Liberal horse.
frednk
True but my point was, that those contracts have been well managed. The fact that the Andrews gocvernment is taking the relevant tradies to court shows that they apply the law to everyone,unlike governments run by some other major political parties.
As for my remarks on how you spin things, I see Rex proved my point not long afterwards. Thanks Rex 🙂
Ho hum, nothing to see here,move on!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-02/julie-bishop-new-job-palladium-personal-advantage-penny-wong/11272104
frednk @ #387 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 5:54 pm
It’s time Labor stopped being a faux opposition.
Rex Douglas
It worked last time, we now have the Liberal government the Greens so wanted; why not try another round?
I am in total admiration of the Liberal/Green campaign machine.
It is certainly BAU for the Greens!
Lots of noise with no actual substantive difference to anything at all.
27 years of posturing political piffle!
Socrates @ #388 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 5:56 pm
what spin ??
frednk @ #391 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 5:57 pm
It’s Labor that’s doing the deal with the Liberals.
Boerwar @ #392 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 5:58 pm
Let’s check the record of Lib-Lab unity tickets….
Scott Ludlam – The Extinction Rebels: Direct action protest and the rise of a new resistance movement
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/july/1561989600/scott-ludlam/extinction-rebels