The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.
Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.
We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.
Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.
Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.
michael @ #640 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:43 pm
Supplying other countries with deadly thermal coal is like loading bullets into an AR-15 for the terrorists.
Yay Yay Michael and Bucephalus
we have just approved and stamped the death sentence for humanity as we know it – go out and rejoice you brain dead F***wits
C@tmomma would advise all union members to turn over and take whatever scraps the bosses would give them. They might sack them otherwise. Talk about a trooper! In a strike situation, C@t would probably be busing in scabs for the bosses.
So who do we thank for this?
I guess all that donor money to Lib-Lab from the coal barons and the mining unions just paid off.
d-money given my political smarts demonstrated on many occasions, Albo would be well advised to do the opposite of anything I think clever
“The Adani approval was never in doubt given the backing and support of the major parties.
You just can’t trust Lib-Lab on the environment.”
And by joves didn’t Bob Brown’s Adani Convoy of No Consequence and Political Bastardry work well?
Bucephalus @ #639 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:13 pm
What kind of human being cheers on a development which increases the risk of a catastrophic environmental breakdown and great harm to human civilisation?
I find people like you incomprehensible. I assume you have no children or grandchildren, or have not bothered to read any of the current science on climate change.
jeff says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 1:29 pm
Just extending the logic of your position.
So, 20% trumps 80%?
There’s no doubt she has her supporters, but in a normal half Senate election repeating what she did in the DD was unlikely.
As others have suggested, being able to generate that level of popularity she might be better suited as a HoR candidate.
Rex Douglas @ #651 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:20 pm
It’s worse, because we have no way of protecting ourselves from the effects of the coal. The AFP can’t arrest invisible atmospheric gases.
“I guess all that donor money to Lib-Lab from the coal barons and the mining unions just paid off.”
I guess the plausible reaction to that f*cking tool Bob Brown’s convoy just paid in spades.
Lynchpin @ #657 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:25 pm
How dare people with a principled and scientifically supported position on further coal mining peacefully protest about that issue?
Lynchpin @ #657 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:55 pm
I’m tipping you voted for the party that Fitzgibbon represents ?
Lynchpin @ #661 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:26 pm
The problem with this argument is that these people were clearly pro coal and anti-action on climate change no matter what. You don’t refuse to serve environmentalists or try to charge them with a horse unless you’re already a right wing, climate change denying fuckwit.
I.e. there is no evidence that the convoy changed anything.
Rex,
Why don’t you go to Townsville and roll that line out in the front bar of a pub.
Good luck.
Bucephalus @ #665 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:29 pm
The fact that a bunch of drunk, illiterate oafs in the backwoods would react violently to a proposition is not a measure of how sound it is. This ‘wisdom of the common folk’ stuff is ridiculous.
jeff,
Would you like to show me your maths on your claim.
The Adani Mine will produce about 0.03% of global emissions.
You were saying….
Simon² Katich® says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 1:31 pm
Each to their own! 🙂
Just my position, certainly not advocating it!
The Greens are stopping climate change while making sure no-one is left behind.
Can Do Di Natale said so yesterday.
Boerwar @ #669 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:32 pm
Good to see you’ve learned valuable lessons from the election and are now focused on the real enemy.
Bucephalus @ #667 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:31 pm
Any one source will be a tiny percentage given there are billions of people on earth. The point is that all such projects need to stop, not just Adani.
Big A Adrian
Sam Harris wrote a book with Maajid Nawaz on Islam and the Future of Tolerance. Nawaz argued that moderates can still have a literal interpretation of the Koran and Hadith which doesn’t offend liberal democratic values and cited many Islamic scholars. I have to say some of the arguments offered were pretty tenuous and clearly weren’t accepted by the majority of Muslim scholars but Nawaz argued promoting those interpretations was the way forward for Islam.
‘Patrick Bateman says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 2:03 pm
Boerwar @ #669 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:32 pm
The Greens are stopping climate change while making sure no-one is left behind.
Can Do Di Natale said so yesterday.
Good to see you’ve learned valuable lessons from the election and are now focused on the real enemy.’
Thank you. The Greens are stopping climate change while making sure no-one is left behind. Can Do Di Natale said so yesterday. He didn’t say how, but hey.
Patrick,
That wasn’t the claim being made.
Bucephalus says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 1:59 pm
Rex,
Why don’t you go to Townsville and roll that line out in the front bar of a pub.
Good luck.
********************************
Dear oh dear
Well that settles it then, lets leave all policy to the RWNJ, red neck, inbred, idiots at the pub……
oh wait ….. we have………. and look where its getting us!
The problem for both Islam and Christianity is the bit where faith comes in.
Because faith is the gate through which the spivs enter and despoil.
Thats all I was saying too Barney.
I suppose we’ll now see whether Adani actually has the finance and the sales contracts for the mine to actually go ahead. Sure, he’ll put on a show of starting construction but how far will that progress?
What will Di Natale do now? Set up a protest group at the entrance of the mine site?
jeff,
How did the ALP go in Queensland North of the Brisbane River at the last Federal Election?
“The fact that a bunch of drunk, illiterate oafs in the backwoods would react violently to a proposition is not a measure of how sound it is. This ‘wisdom of the common folk’ stuff is ridiculous.”
These people vote, but don’t let that reality colour your elitist and naive views.
citizen,
Why would Adani need customers for the coal when the reason it wants the coal for its’ own power stations?
Townsville is still very much a ALP voting city, as are Rockhampton, Mackay and Bundaberg.
Seeing how excellently well the last Adani Convoy went, it must be time for anothery.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 2:14 pm
Are you looking to open a mine and need some help? 🙂
Mexicanbeemer
ALP only got 25.45 % FP. That’s terrible for the ALP.
Patrick Bateman @ #658 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:55 pm
I think he should change his nom to microcephalus from bucephalus.
Adani. Again.
We know that many developing countries will be using thermal coal for decades. So long as these countries are fulfilling and preferably exceeding their agreed targets then there should be no concern about selling them high quality Australian coal.
The focus should always have been on due process, both environmental and financial (if subsidies were being offered and that fair tax and royalties were being implemented).
The real battle is not Adani but power generation in Australia and Australia meeting existing targets and being able to ramp up in the next round of targets.
Subsidies for coal extraction, transport and use must end (I would put a small tax on it 😉 ). There is no room for new coal fired power-stations in Australia and no room for trying to extend the life of existing coal power stations. So hurry up you government f’wits and start encouraging their replacement generation/storage.
d-money: “Religion which is adhered to faithfully as a guide to one’s own moral conduct, a personal system that provides comfort and answers to perceived questions of meaning, does not trouble anyone.
The trouble arises as soon as personal creeds get turned into a generalised principle one seeks to apply to others, or when your belief is spruiked as applicable to others.”
————————–
The criticism I get about Islam (more than any other religion) is actually more nuanced than that.
It is premised on the inflexible idea that Islam is innately hostile and intolerant to anything “un-Islamic”, and that the only way muslims can be good people is to defy their doctrine (and by extension their beliefs). This is actually consistent across all critics of Islam – from the far right, to rabid atheists like Dawkins, right through to well intentioned progressives. All see the average “peaceful” muslim as acting and behaving as they do in spite of their religion, not because of it. Their attitude towards muslims may be summed up rather crudely with this sentiment: “they may not go out and kill the infidel – but they are certainly compelled to believe the infidel deserves to die” – or some similar variant. This is a surprisingly consistent sentiment from right to left, from religious to non-religious. Even supposedly sympathetic progressives don’t seem to have a problem and simply rationalize something like “sure they have a backward religion, but as long as they don’t hurt me – who am I to criticise?”
I just want to say, as a muslim who genuinely believes my doctrine is not inherently intolerant or hateful or violent, I find this sentiment offensive, and I wish people could understand that not all muslims feel doctrinally obliged to be a closet racist/bigot/wisher-of-death or whatever. So long as non-muslims have such a low opinion of muslims, regardless of how opposed they are of actually hurting or abusing, or even openly criticising muslims for it – the muslim community will never feel trully accepted by society.
I think they made a movie about Browns convoy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sd5ZLJWQmss
Bucephalus says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 2:21 pm
Mexicanbeemer
ALP only got 25.45 % FP. That’s terrible for the ALP
———————–
I’m aware of that and yes it was a poor result but these north Queensland seats are large diverse places, Townsville is a solid ALP city with marginal areas to the north and strong LNP areas to the south and west of it. The current parliament is showing the need for enlargement to ensure a better reflection of local voting patterns.
Whoa! More MPs?
But seriously, this idea could work if my suggestions on MPs working and voting from home is taken up.
Simon² Katich® says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 2:26 pm
I would have gone Talking Heads. 🙂
Simon Holmes a Court takes a tremendous swipe at Angus Taylor over climate policy, that is, Taylor is useless at doing anything except making excuses for inaction.
Barney. Talking Heads? I so love this song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2twY8YQYDBE
It has the delightful Kristy MacColl.
But Convoy has the splendid Ali MacGraw.
ABC gets Quiggin to comment on Adani.
Balanced.
Apparently.
Poor old ABC presenters sounding like they did after the Election they lost.
If the Adani coal mine does eventually go ahead (and I still think it won’t, for economic reasons) no particular group of politicians can be blamed (unless they give the company a massive subsidy). The blame will rest with those who voted for it to go ahead. It seems there were enough people who so voted and given that Australia is a democratic country, who are the elected representatives to stand in the way of the will of the people?
I don’t think even the coalition will be mad enough to chime in with a massive subsidy, but we will see.
I think allowing it to go ahead is a stupid idea, but democracy does not prevent stupidity.
Bucephalus @ #697 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 2:41 pm
Is there a link for that?