The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.
Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.
We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.
Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.
Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.
lizzie @ #589 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 12:26 pm
Isn’t that because Albanese chose to use the Batty comments, rather than the actual harassment, as the basis for his call for Setka to go?
Highest ever participation rate in Jobs figures.
PB
Yes, and think he reacted too soon.
I disagree. Costs too much.
lizzie @ #603 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 12:46 pm
I think Albanese should pivot hard to ‘this isn’t just about the comments, the bloke is pleading guilty to crimes against a woman’. Make anyone defending him openly stand behind the harasser, instead of allowing this to be a debate about the interpretation of comments made in a meeting.
lizzie @ #604 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 12:47 pm
Yeah, but presumably appeals to Queensland swing voters who have no interest in what anything costs.
Interested to hear what people think of the lack of Family First and Lib Dems in QLD.
The seats that changed to LNP in QLD had a swing away from LNP on Primaries…
Hmm…
Looks like changes in preference flows from minors are what affected the result.
Rex Douglas,
That’s an extremely sexist opinion.
I thought that you were meant to be progressive.
Bucephalus @ #602 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:13 pm
I thought we weren’t doing cherry-picked propaganda things with those anymore.
The jobs figures are a status-quo result at best, and evidence of continued weakness at worst.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 12:43 pm
It seems to have basically absorbed the system they already had.
It’s great for me as it eliminates the language barrier, but I question whether the riders themselves are seeing many benefits and have had to accept it to try and maintain their livelihoods.
Patrick Bateman @ #605 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:18 pm
Albo can’t ‘pivot’ now. Too late for that. He should actually double down.
Bucephalus @ #608 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:19 pm
Sorry, but I think women for the most part are far more rational in caring for others than men are.
Of all the Tories I think ole Artie Seenodonours is one of best tacticians, fairly moderate, quite articulate.
So what do they do? They send him to Washington, where he’ll spend the bulk of his time waiting for an invitation from the orange dotard to play golf.
The Adani decision is not far off. Considering the unemployment rate in QLD has again blown out to 6.2% in May and is now 1% above the national figure, it is critical.
Does anyone know what time an announcement is to be made re Adani today by the Queensland Government?
Perhaps the Liberals are only happy to promote female candidates when there’s no actual power at stake.
And then pat themselves on the back for it, plus use the fact as a promotional tool. And the Good Girls always go along, to get along. 🙂
Coles to shed 450 employees:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/coles-head-office-shake-up-sees-450-roles-and-senior-execs-depart-20190613-p51x9a.html
“Does anyone know what time an announcement is to be made re Adani today by the Queensland Government?”
Does it matter? Is there anyone who actually has any doubts that the “decision” is already a foregone conclusion?
Sackwatch update 13.6
Coles to terminate 450 head office staff at their Melbourne office in Tooronga and undertake a significant restructure as part of an ‘efficiency drive’ according to The Age newspaper.
Two senior executives also shown the door.
Hi Barney,
I do find it funny how you just draw your own conclusions based on thin air sometimes….
I am not suggesting that below the line voting should be valued more than above, never even mentioned, hinted or suggested it (unless you can demonstrate where i have?)
What my point is… There were roughly 100k total ticket votes for Labor in Tas senate, of those 20K or approx 20% of those Labor supporters felt it necessary to vote below the line in support if Singh (the same kind of result as last time) compared to bugger all for the other candidates on their ticket.
Now you can dismiss it all you like – but quite frankly that attitude is just the kind of arrogance that was on display in this forum leading up to the election and we all know the result.
Labor had a chance this election to put it right but instead chose to ignore the will of its own voters. If Singh does not run for Labor next time out or instead runs as an independent, expect to see a lot of votes lost. Even the loss of half her votes put Labor under 2 quotas.
Bucephalus @ #585 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 12:49 pm
Tell that to the males in the Liberal Party. They don’t seem to have got the message yet. 🙂
Mavis Davis @ #617 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:27 pm
I’m sure nath will be along soon enough to blame the SDA for that. 😉
a r
Joan Kirner
Carmen Lawrence
Kristina Keneally
I go into them. I dont consider it voyeuristic. They are (normally) very peaceful places. The people that frequent them are (normally) very warm, caring generous people which is probably where the peaceful vibe comes from (rather than the architecture).
The words Grace and Solemn are two religious words that society in general can benefit from. Sometimes, in busy foreign cities, religious places full of grace and solemnity fill a need in a weary atheist traveler.
Real estate watch 13.6
Various reports from property analysts and the local Council suggest Chapel Street in inner South East Melbourne now has one of the highest retail vacancy rates of any strip shopping centres in Victoria at around 40%. The river to Commercial Road end (northern end) is particularly bad at the moment.
Many pundits blame general retail downturn and the continuing expansion of Chadstone and new retail development in the CBD.
Chapel Street used to be one of the retail jewels in Melbourne.
michael @ #614 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 12:53 pm
Given that it will produce sweet f.a. in terms of long term employment, why does it matter?
Jesus, Mary, QandA is becoming oring and predictable and a home for media whores. Brian bleeding Cox AGAIN on Monday!
This Monday night on Q&A – a stellar line up of scientific minds. Prepare to have yours expanded!
Joining the panel at our ABC Sydney studios:
Particle Physicist and Stargazer, Brian Cox
Marine Ecologist and Dean of Science, UNSW Emma Johnston
Climate Scientist, CSIRO David Karoly
Indigenous Astrophysicist, Kirsten Banks
Astrobiologist, Geologist and Director of Big Questions Institute, Martin Van Kranendonk
Why don’t they invite Douglas and Milko instead for a change!?!
sgh1969 @ #625 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:31 pm
Whose electorate is it in?
I’ve not heard of this Mike Gravel presidential candidate before, but I’m liking him already…
https://twitter.com/MikeGravel/status/1138948294196039681
“We’re facing a global wave of right-wing authoritarianism, bankrolled by legions of elites desperate to retain their wealth and power.
If your answer to this threat is “the power of hope” instead of transformative policy, you’re a worthless shill named Beto O’Rourke.”
He also endorsed the Iraqi George Bush shoe thrower.
wow MVK is on!
‘Martin Van Kranendonk”
I used to work with him at the Geological Survey of WA
He’s a smart cookie… Found evidence of really early life in the Pilbara of WA…
He will have some goods thoughts on global warming
d-money at 1.06pm: Great ideas! Don’t even have to go down the debt-and-deficit-disaster/ chaos-and-confusion path of lies that Abbott trod, just relentlessly repeat the facts you have outlined. I like the hypocrisy narrative as well.
C@tmomma says:
[‘I’m sure nath will be along soon enough to blame the SDA for that. ‘]
That should be sufficient to get him blogging again.
Simon Katich,
Completely agree and as an Atheist being in these magnificent buildings during a religious service can be an amazing experience.
Being in Westminster Abbey for Evensong when my daughter sang in the Choir is one of the highlights of my life.
C@t
Yes this is usually the way, not just ABC though. Lets pretend we are addressing the big issues (i would imagine climate change is the topic for this one) now there is another 3 years to an election. Let’s get it out of the way early and then invite some climate denial pricks on for the lead up to the next election.
The Enemy Within
It is an open secret within the labour movement that the SDA’s leadership have maintained cosy relationships with big retailers and fast food giants – Coles, Woolworths, KFC, McDonalds and others – in order to have easy access to workplaces and maximise their membership. This membership translates to power in the Labor Party and the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU), where the SDA’s conservative Catholic leadership have used their muscle to oppose progressive policy on queer rights and women’s issues…..
There are a number of possible reasons why labour movement leaders may have been reluctant to condemn the SDA’s behaviour. The most obvious is money. As the country’s biggest private sector union, SDA’s affiliation fees represent a huge source of revenue for both the ALP and the ACTU; criticising the union could jeopardise that revenue. The other reason is the political power of the SDA. The affiliation fees paid by the union buy them significant quotas on conference floors and, with that, significant political power. In 2015, Dave Oliver saw off a challenge from then ACTU assistant secretary, Tim Lyons, with the support of the SDA – he has been their staunch defender ever since….
But there is a third, more insidious argument that is sometimes used as a justification for not condemning the SDA: that we shouldn’t condemn the practices of the SDA because that would be giving ammunition to the enemy. It implies that, regardless of the behaviour of any particular trade union – even if their actions undermine the interests of working-class people – we shouldn’t criticise them because they are ‘on our side’. At a time when the trade union movement is under attack from aggressive employers and reactionary governments, this siege mentality is pervasive….
Labour movement leaders are engaged in exactly this kind of obfuscation and distortion when they defend the SDA. We know and understand exploitation they perpetrate but find a reason to do nothing about it.
There are alternatives. For instance, the SDA could be kicked out of the ACTU or the ALP. Union leaders could condemn the exploitation of the SDA and demand it reform itself or face a well-organised opponent at its next union elections.
But currently, fear of the SDA’s political power and dependence on the money they use to buy that power is too high. Even more disheartening is that powerful trade unionists refuse to stand up for vulnerable workers for fear of ‘giving ammunition to the enemy’. They seem not to have realised that the real enemy is worker exploitation, and that the SDA is exploiting workers for their own, narrow political ends. As Orwell observed, the distortion of facts and self-delusion may seem sensible in the short term, but in the long run it is poisoning us.
https://overland.org.au/2016/11/the-enemy-within-3/
Catmomma,
QandA could even go out on a limb and have panel the politically reflects the voting pattern of Australia and have a majority of Conservatives on.
I’ve got more chance of winning Lotto.
Barney and Big A Adrian,
Religion which is adhered to faithfully as a guide to one’s own moral conduct, a personal system that provides comfort and answers to perceived questions of meaning, does not trouble anyone.
The trouble arises as soon as personal creeds get turned into a generalised principle one seeks to apply to others, or when your belief is spruiked as applicable to others.
For example the Folau thing; FIne for israel F to belive he would go to hell if he adultered, but NOT fine for him to speak as if this is some kind of fact to push onto other people in judgement. That opens the them and us can of worms, and divides into good and bad people, based on whether you share the belief.
It has always pissed me off that people rant about Australian culture being ‘Christian’. As far as i am concerned the Australian culture with respect to Religion is [or should be] “Belive whatever you want, but don’t push it on me”. Any code of belief that demands adherents push their belief on others is transgressing to some degree against tolerance.
Adani approved.
Finally.
Next is the rest of the basin mines.
Go you good thing.
Patrick if Adani gets the go-ahead, potentially another 6 mines in the Galilee could start up. There are a lot of permanent jobs which will flow if the whole Galilee basin is opened up. People who live in the capital cities and to the south should stay out of the whole argument.
Mavis Davis @ #632 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
Bingo! Come in spinner! 😀
Yay!
Open up the Galilee Basin and drain the Great Artesian Basin.
Way to go!
Lol. Overland. The mouthpiece of the Socialist Left. Representative of about 0.0000001% of the population. 😆
Joanne M we can only wait by the phone for the call-up from Albo
lizzie @ #642 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:45 pm
Well, when the sea levels rise as a result of Global Warming they can always use the sea water in a desal plant. 😐
C@t
Prahran is in the Federal seat of Higgins.
State seat of Prahran.
Council is under intense scrutiny at the moment as well.
The Adani approval was never in doubt given the backing and support of the major parties.
You just can’t trust Lib-Lab on the environment.
Re. Adani:
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/adani-clears-last-major-hurdle-for-controversial-mine-20190613-p51x8n.html
Cat:
Re. nath.
You’re prescient.
C@tmomma
says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 1:45 pm
Lol. Overland. The mouthpiece of the Socialist Left. Representative of about 0.0000001% of the population.
____________________
C@tmomma, SDA and Shorten right wing online loyalist. Shorten was a failure, and a sook.
Lizzie,
The Galilee Basin is a pin prick on the Great Artesian Basin. Unscientific Claims like yours are why Alarmists aren’t taken seriously.