Sundry updates and developments:
• As noted in the regularly updated late counting post, Labor has taken a 67 vote lead in Macquarie, after trailing 39 at the close of counting yesterday. However, there is no guarantee that this represents an ongoing trend to Labor, since most of the gain came from the counting of absents, which would now be just about done. Most of the outstanding votes are out-of-division pre-polls, which could go either way. The result will determine whether the Coalition governs with 77 or 78 seats out of 151, while Labor will have either 67 or 68.
• Labor is reportedly preparing to challenge the result in Chisholm under the “misleading or deceptive publications” provision of the Electoral Act, a much ploughed but largely unproductive tillage for litigants over the years. The Victorian authorities have been rather activist in upholding “misleading or deceptive publications” complaints, but this is in the lower stakes context of challenges to the registration of how-to-vote cards, rather than to the result of an election. At issue on this occasion is Liberal Party material circulated on Chinese language social media service WeChat, which instructed readers to fill out the ballot paper in the manner recommended “to avoid an informal vote”. I await for a court to find otherwise, but this strikes me as pretty thin gruel. The Chinese community is surely aware that Australian elections presume to present voters with a choice, so the words can only be understood as an address to those who have decided to vote Liberal. Labor also have a beef with Liberal material that looked like Australian Electoral Commission material, in Chisholm and elsewhere.
• Political science heavyweights Simon Jackman and Shaun Ratcliff of the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has breakdowns from a big sample campaign survey in The Guardian, noting that only survey data can circumvent the ecological fallacy, a matter raised in my previous post. The survey was derived from 10,316 respondents from a YouGov online panel, and conducted from April 18 to May 12. The results suggest the Coalition won through their dominance of the high income cohort (taken here to mean an annual household income of over $208,000), particularly among the self-employed, for which their primary vote is recorded as approaching 80%. Among business and trust owners on incomes of over $200,000, the Coalition outpolled Labor 60% to 10%, with the Greens on next to nothing. However, for those in the high income bracket who didn’t own business or trusts, the Coalition was in the low forties, Labor the high thirties, and the Greens the low teens. While Ratcliff in The Guardian seeks to rebut the notion that “battlers” decided the election for the Coalition, the big picture impression for low-income earners is that Labor were less than overwhelmingly dominant.
• As reported in the Financial Review on Friday, post-election polling for JWS Research found Coalition voters tended to rate tax and economic management as the most important campaign issue, against climate change, health and education for Labor voters. Perhaps more interestingly, it found Coalition voters more than twice as likely to nominate “free-to-air” television as “ABC, SBS television” as their favoured election news source, whereas Labor voters plumped for both fairly evenly. Coalition voters were also significantly more likely to identify “major newspapers (print/online)”.
• Two impending resignations from Liberal Senators create openings for losing election candidates. The Financial Review reports Mitch Fifield’s Victorian vacancy looks set to be of interest not only to Sarah Henderson, outgoing Corangamite MP and presumed front-runner, but also to Indi candidate Steve Martin, Macnamara candidate Kate Ashmor and former state MP Inga Peulich.
• In New South Wales, Arthur Sinodinos’s Senate seat will fall vacant later this year, when he takes up the position of ambassador to the United States. The most widely invoked interested party to succeed him has been Jim Molan, who is publicly holding out hope that below-the-line votes will elect him to the third Coalition seat off fourth position on the ballot paper, although this is assuredly not going to happen. As canvassed in the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review, other possible starters include Warren Mundine, freshly unsuccessful in his lower house bid for Gilmore; James Brown, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW, state RSL president and the husband of Daisy Turnbull Brown, daughter of the former Prime Minister; Michael Hughes, state party treasurer and the brother of Lucy Turnbull; Kent Johns, the state party vice-president who appeared set to depose Craig Kelly for preselection in Hughes, but was prevailed on not to proceed; Richard Sheilds, chief lobbyist at the Insurance Council of Australia; Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra councillor and unsuccessful preselection contender in Wentworth; and Michael Feneley, heart surgeon and twice-unsuccessful candidate for Kingsford Smith.
• Federal Labor may have evaded a party membership ballot through Anthony Albanese’s sole nomination, but a ballot is pending for the party’s new state leader in New South Wales, which will pit Kogarah MP Chris Minns against Strathfield MP Jodi McKay. The members’ ballot will be conducted over the next month, the parliamentary party will hold its vote on June 29, and the result will be announced the following day. Members’ ballots in leadership contests are now provided for federally and in most states (as best as I can tell, South Australia is an exception), but this is only the second time one has actually been conducted after the Shorten-Albanese bout that followed the 2013 election. As the Albanese experience demonstrates, the ballots can be circumvented if a candidate emerges unopposed, and the New South Wales branch, for one, has an exception if the vacancy arises six months before an election. Such was the case when Michael Daley succeeded Luke Foley in November, when he won a party room vote ahead of Chris Minns by 33 votes to 12.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 1:17 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised if he was given a role here like Andrew Leigh was when there weren’t a sufficient number of positions to give him an official shadow role.
Barney
Quite possibly, Ed is too talented to have cooling his heels on the backbench.
Itep,
What Keneally fiasco are you talking about ?
What pile of stinking shit have you been poking around in to think this is a fiasco ?
Surely you have not jumped on the MSM shit cart ?
All a it late to reveal now; let the disaster unfold.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/morrison-s-new-economic-worry-reserve-bank-running-out-of-bullets-20190528-p51rty.html
“ltep says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 1:20 pm
Welcome to the stage Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles!
*crowd goes wild*”
Well. McCormack is currently Deputy PM and Barnaby before him.
Well climate change is one area where it is fair to say the coalition does not have a “strong plan”. Direct action has been worse than ineffective. It has been a colossal waste of money, and our emissions are still getting worse. At what point should the ANAO be asked to audit every piece of spending on this? We would literally be better off doing nothing.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/29/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-increased-for-fourth-year-in-a-row-in-2018
The best way to avoid a two term strategy is to get buyers remorse early, by reminding every voter of the lies ScoMo told to get reelected.
frednk says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 1:30 pm
“New economic worry”?
That’s been apparent for a long time.
What matters about Shorten is whether he will be a team player and help the election of the ALP rather than be a destabilizing influence.
I think he can be a positive, but obviously time will tell, and I’m sure he will be under scrutiny, and aware that he is being scrutinized.
As pointed out above, unsuccessful opposition leaders have continued on in useful ministerial roles in the past without there being a serious organizational problem – Hayden, Crean, Beazley (didn’t make it back to a ministry, but didn’t quit after his first ‘failure’). I suspect we’ve become overly sensitive due to the RGR debacle.
I also can’t help but feel that whatever Labor does in terms of who it puts up as a shadow cabinet is going to be criticized. If it’s all neat and orderly then it’s all about stultifying factional power sharing deals, if there’s a bit of jostling then it’s brawling, chaos and disunity. As long as whoever is on the frontbench can perform and they all settle down to the task of winning government then whatever goes on over this little interregnum period is going to be quickly forgotten.
Better than Barnaby is some pretty faint praise.
Which one of the following would bludgers prefer on the Labor front bench ?
Bill Shorten
Don Farrell
Richard Marles
Ed Husic
Rex, you guys have stuck with Richard Di Natale so you don’t have any reason to gloat.
The media can at times be a thing of bemusement but often they are partly right with what they report but it depends who says it because within the media or talking head community there is a hierarchy of access and credibility which applies to any field and often the sources are only offering gossip which is why its important to pay more attention to who is reporting something.
ltep @ #159 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
It was a genuine question.
Out of that four Bill Shorten, Don Farrell, Richard Marles & Ed Husic
1 Husic 2 Marles 3 Shorten 4 Ferrell
I would have the first three, don’t know enough about Ferrell.
Jackol @ #156 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 1:36 pm
Shorten lost two unlosable elections to the worst Govts in Australia’s history.
He is a massive loser in the voters eyes.
But, hey, am I surprised that he’s continuing ? Absolutely not.
When will Sarah Coral Hanson-Young be launching her next leadership challenge Rex 😉 Next question -how many years/months will the public need to wait to hear about the leadership challenge?
doyley @ #151 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 1:29 pm
6 yrs of delusion resulting in two humiliating election losses to basket case Govts and Labor still can’t admit the obvious.
Rex Douglas
says:
But, hey, am I surprised that he’s continuing ? Absolutely not.
_____________________________
What else is he going to do? He came in after 2004 so there’s no pension for him.
There really isn’t much point in this minute-by-minute reporting, is there.
The fiasco is so obvious I shouldn’t really need to clarify.
Even if you accept Keneally might be overhyped/overrated, there’s enough seat warmers on the huge Labor frontbench that there should be easily enough room for her. The fact that there’s not speaks volumes about how the factions are not working for the good of the parliamentary party as a whole. I mean after all we’ve got Joel Fitzgibbon, the guy who had to be sacked from the Rudd Ministry in its first term due to scandal, and has been in the Parliament for over 20 years with very little to show for it. And that’s only looking at the same state/faction – why there should need to be consideration of the mathematics of states/factions is beyond me when the sole criteria should be who will deliver the best outcomes for the party and the country.
Ignoring factions if I was putting together a team of 18 it would probably look something like the following Tanya P, P Wong, C O’Neil, Ged K, KK, Catherine K, Anna Aly, L. Burney, J. McAllister, Chalmbers, Husic, Marles, Shorten, Mike Kelly, T. Burke, B O` Connor, Dobson, Bowen with Albo as leader.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 1:37 pm
The Labor Party has rules.
These rules aim at achieving balance within the Party.
One such rule is to achieve equal female/male representation.
Another is to give appropriate representation, to the different factions in the Party, in Cabinet.
In general they provide positive results, but on occasions maybe not so.
But we know you’d throw them all away for your version of the perfect.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 2:00 pm
“Ignoring factions … ”
You’ve put your finger exactly on what is one of the major current ongoing problems (if not the major) for Labor – the deadening hand of careerist factions, dedicated not to ideas, but to advancing the careers of their factional members.
Barney in Makassar @ #172 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 2:08 pm
These rules you speak of have delivered two catastrophic election losses.
Mark Butler as Labor President would’ve given Labor hope for the future at least, but as of now the party is weighed down by hacks.
Barney in Makassar @ #172 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 2:08 pm
Ah, so that’s where the mistake was made.
Acknowledging factions within the official party rules only empowers and entrenches the factions. The correct official position can only be “Labor is one party, you either support it or you don’t”.
Barney in Makassar @ #155 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 1:35 pm
Not to the punters.
Shame Labor didn’t mention it during the election campaign we just had.
Seriously, what good does someone like Chris Bowen being on the front bench do for Labor ?
His goose is cooked. Will be forever tainted by his failings and NEVER trusted by the electorate.
Itep,
She will be on the front bench.
What is your problem with that ?
BTW, she was always going to be on the front bench. Shorten had her picked out for a front bench position well before the election.
So, win or lose she was there.
Rex,
Wayne Swan was elected president of the labor party by the members. Do you consider the members to be hacks ? Surely not after all your bleating about given the party membership more say in selecting the caucus leader.
Perhaps the members are only hacks in they do not agree with you ?
Make up your mind.
One ‘good’ thing about the doubling of debt by the Coalition of spivs & shonks is that any squawking about ‘Labor debt’ can be met with “Most of the national debt is ‘Coalition debt’ “.
No doubt Shorten has the capacity to make a positive contribution to the Opposition front bench and if he wants to stay in Parliament no one will be budging him, like it or not. That’s fair enough to me; he’s earned the right to do what he wants. Nonetheless, if he’s around, there’s a high chance that the leadershit narrative will start up sooner or later – a risk that the ALP would prefer to do without I’d have thought.
doyley @ #179 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 2:27 pm
who did you vote for ?
max @ #182 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 2:30 pm
‘earned the right’
What do you mean by that in the context of the election results ?
citizen @ #181 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 2:30 pm
Albo’s absolutely right.
max
So ya reckon “Albo made a speech” alerts will be replaced by “Billsho made a speech” alerts ? 🙂
Rex,
Answer my question. You go on and on about making the labor party more democratic by giving members more of a say in the choice of federal caucus leader.
Are these very same labor party members hacks for voting for Wayne Swan as president over Butler ?
Simple question. Answer it.
Piss or get off the pot once and for all.
Shorten and Bowen hanging around like bad smells just gives the Govt so much political capital. Massive free kick.
Let’s not forget that the Greens all piled onto Lee Rhiannon when she suggested their party membership have more of a say. And their membership has 0 say in the leadership of the party.
I think a few people are forgetting that the Prime Bullshitter has had a pretty easy run so far. He was relatively untainted by the Abbott/Turnbull hatewank of the seven veils (even though he was a senior minister in both productions). And both the budgets heroic assumptions and the election lies were glossed over because he was never expected to win.
Thing is, he has to own it now. Let’s see how the great unwashed are feeling after 3 years of things not quite panning out how they were supposed to, and Shouty McPantshitter sneering in his baseball cap and yelling at them about how fucking good everything is!
doyley @ #187 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 2:36 pm
When you look at the hacks handcuffing themselves to the front bench you have to wonder why Labor members voted for the status quo under Swan
Who did you vote for ?
Rex,
Your “ answer “ or lack thereof to my simple question does not surprise.
Anyway, just after the election I posted I was going to retire to the background for a while. I have failed to live up to that. So time to have a rest. I suspect when I do return after some political R&R good ol’ Rex will still be sitting on the pot.
I wish labor well.
Cheers.
Rex Douglas @ #188 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 2:37 pm
Overstated.
Unless you think they’d be wise to trigger two immediate by-elections (in each of which the Coalition could gain an additional seat), the more reasonable thing for them to do is hang around for about the next 3 years.
doyley @ #192 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 2:47 pm
Interesting you’re reluctant to state who you voted for ?
I sense some buyers remorse…
a r @ #193 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 2:48 pm
It’s a majority Govt anyway so politically it’s better for Labor to have the clean air rather than the stink.
Both Bowen and Shorten’s seats are reasonable safe, 6.28% in McMahon and 11% in Maribyrnong. I don’t think Labor would lose them in by-elections, even if the Liberals decide to stand candidates (they might not in Maribyrnong).
Notwithstanding the 1% of voters who choose to propound our brilliant observations in sites such as this, nobody gives a rat’s bum who the Deputy Leaders are.
I’d aver that even among Pollbludger’s flock of Tragics there’s a few of us who’d fail to even name the Deputy Leaders of the Greens and the Nats, let alone draw sound conclusions as to how competently all of them are performing the duties of their positions.
Labor ahead by 284 in Macquarie now. All the good places voted last, or something.